ORCID Profile
0000-0002-2597-8422
Current Organisations
Utrecht University
,
Wageningen University
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Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2019
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-022-04917-5
Abstract: Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally 1,2 , yet their impacts are still increasing 3 . An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been h ered by a lack of empirical data 4,5 . On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for ex le, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change 3 .
Publisher: American Chemical Society (ACS)
Date: 11-04-2017
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 21-11-2012
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-16-4303-2012
Abstract: Abstract. Realistic estimates of daily streamflow and water temperature are required for effective management of water resources (e.g. for electricity and drinking water production) and freshwater ecosystems. Although hydrological and process-based water temperature modelling approaches have been successfully applied to small catchments and short time periods, much less work has been done at large spatial and temporal scales. We present a physically based modelling framework for daily river discharge and water temperature simulations applicable to large river systems on a global scale. Model performance was tested globally at 1/2 × 1/2° spatial resolution and a daily time step for the period 1971–2000. We made specific evaluations on large river basins situated in different hydro-climatic zones and characterized by different anthropogenic impacts. Effects of anthropogenic heat discharges on simulated water temperatures were incorporated by using global gridded thermoelectric water use datasets and representing thermal discharges as point sources into the heat advection equation. This resulted in a significant increase in the quality of the water temperature simulations for thermally polluted basins (Rhine, Meuse, Danube and Mississippi). Due to large reservoirs in the Columbia which affect streamflow and thermal regimes, a reservoir routing model was used. This resulted in a significant improvement in the performance of the river discharge and water temperature modelling. Overall, realistic estimates were obtained at daily time step for both river discharge (median normalized BIAS = 0.3 normalized RMSE = 1.2 r = 0.76) and water temperature (median BIAS = −0.3 °C RMSE = 2.8 °C r = 0.91) for the entire validation period, with similar performance during warm, dry periods. Simulated water temperatures are sensitive to headwater temperature, depending on resolution and flow velocity. A high sensitivity of water temperature to river discharge (thermal capacity) was found during warm, dry conditions. The modelling approach has potential to be used for risk analyses and studying impacts of climate change and other anthropogenic effects (e.g. thermal pollution, dams and reservoir regulation) on large rivers.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2010WR009198
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-06-2012
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1546
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2013
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2015
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2019
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2018.08.160
Abstract: The river flow regime and water resources are highly important for economic growths, flood security, and ecosystem dynamics in the Mekong basin - an important transboundary river basin in South East Asia. The river flow, although remains relatively unregulated, is expected to be increasingly perturbed by climate change and rapidly accelerating socioeconomic developments. Current understanding about hydrological changes under the combined impacts of these drivers, however, remains limited. This study presents projected hydrological changes caused by multiple drivers, namely climate change, large-scale hydropower developments, and irrigated land expansions by 2050s. We found that the future flow regime is highly susceptible to all considered drivers, shown by substantial changes in both annual and seasonal flow distribution. While hydropower developments exhibit limited impacts on annual total flows, climate change and irrigation expansions cause changes of +15% and -3% in annual flows, respectively. However, hydropower developments show the largest seasonal impacts characterized by higher dry season flows (up to +70%) and lower wet season flows (-15%). These strong seasonal impacts tend to outplay those of the other drivers, resulting in the overall hydrological change pattern of strong increases of the dry season flow (up to +160%) flow reduction in the first half of the wet season (up to -25%) and slight flow increase in the second half of the wet season (up to 40%). Furthermore, the cumulative impacts of all drivers cause substantial flow reductions during the early wet season (up to -25% in July), posing challenges for crop production and saltwater intrusion in the downstream Mekong Delta. Substantial flow changes and their consequences require careful considerations of future development activities, as well as timely adaptation to future changes.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 24-02-2018
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 04-2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-10-2013
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-02-2023
Abstract: Abstract. As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e., two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed, and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises: 1) detailed review style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair 2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterise management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts of all events 3) a table of the indicators-of-change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators-of-change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the in idual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses e.g. focused on causal links between risk management, changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al. 2023, link for review: dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de anmetaworks/review/923c14519deb04f83815ce108b48dd2581d57b90ce069bec9c948361028b8c85/).
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 16-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-15-2009-2023
Abstract: Abstract. As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human–water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the in idual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, 0.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 29-07-2016
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-20-3027-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Climate change poses critical threats to water-related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals from earlier Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3)-based assessments, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the CMIP5 climate projections. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high-flow and low-flow conditions). In general, the Mekong's hydrological cycle intensifies under future climate change. The scenario's ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16 %, depending on location). Despite the overall increasing trend, the in idual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional changes. The scenario's ensemble, however, shows reduced uncertainties in climate projection and hydrological impacts compared to earlier CMIP3-based assessments. We further found that extremely high-flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risks in the basin. Climate-change-induced hydrological changes will have important implications for safety, economic development, and ecosystem dynamics and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and water management.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2016
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2016.03.190
Abstract: Iran Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. By adapting a method of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) for hypersaline lakes, we estimated annually 3.7·10(9)m(3) water is needed to preserve Urmia Lake. Then, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the EFRs by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 05-2021
Abstract: In order to achieve worldwide food security, there is a focus on sustainable intensification of crop production. This requires sustainable irrigation water use for irrigated croplands, as irrigation withdrawals are already resulting in groundwater exploitation and unmet ecosystem water requirements. Our study aims to quantify attainable wheat, maize, rice and soybean production on currently irrigated cropland under sustainable water use. Attainable production accounts for increases in nutrient application, while limiting irrigation withdrawals to renewable water availability and without compromising river ecosystem water requirements. Attainable production was quantified using a newly developed two-way coupled hydrological model and crop model. This model framework could comprehensively simulate biophysical processes related to water availability and crop growth under water and nutrient limitations. Our results indicate worldwide crop nitrogen uptake should increase by 20%, to achieve production gap closure. However, worldwide irrigation withdrawals should decrease by more than a third in order to ensure sustainable water use. Under these constraints, a total (all crops) production decrease of 5% was estimated, compared to currently achievable production. Moreover, achievable irrigated crop production in the extensively irrigated croplands of northeastern China, Pakistan and northwestern India would be reduced by up to a third. On the other hand, increases in achievable irrigated crop production may be possible in regions such as southern America, eastern Europe and central Africa. However, in these regions currently only a small fraction of crops is irrigated. Our results imply that intensification on currently irrigated croplands is at odds with sustainable water management, and further locally-oriented research is needed to assess suitable water management options and solutions.
Location: Austria
No related grants have been discovered for Michelle T.H. van Vliet.