ORCID Profile
0000-0002-8231-6548
Current Organisation
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, CU Boulder, and NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System
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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 03-03-2021
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU21-3441
Abstract: & & Defining flash drought is important not only for the development of the science but also for ensuring clear and useful early warning information to end users. In preparation for a December 2020 U.S-based workshop on flash drought, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) undertook a survey of NIDIS contacts to explore how flash drought is understood within and outside of the research community. End users represented in the survey include researchers (outside of flash drought specialty), policy-makers, decision-makers, communicators, and educators and public engagement specialists, largely working within universities or federal agencies across the U.S. Flash drought researchers were asked to describe how they intend for the term & #8220 flash drought& #8221 to be interpreted when they use it. End users (whether they had heard/used the term before or not) were asked to describe what they think of when they hear the term & #8220 flash drought& #8221 . Their answers emerged into themes, including: onset/intensification, duration, drivers, impacts, seasonality, predictability, intensity, spatial scale, and uncertainty about its meaning. In this presentation, we will elaborate upon these themes, and discuss similarities and differences in how flash drought researchers and end users conceptualize flash drought.& &
Publisher: American Association of State Climatologists
Date: 19-02-2021
DOI: 10.46275/JOASC.2021.02.001
Abstract: The topic of “Flash Drought” is rapidly gaining attention within both the research and drought management communities. This literature review aims to synthesize the research to-date and provide a basis for future research on the topic. Specifically, our review is focused on documenting the range of definitions of “flash drought” being proposed in the research community. We found that the term first appeared in the peer-reviewed literature in 2002, and by 2020 has become an area of active research. Within that 18-year span, “flash drought” has been given 29 general descriptions, and 20 papers have provided measurable, defining criteria used to distinguish a flash drought from other drought. Of these papers, 11 distinguish flash drought as a rapid-onset drought event while eight distinguish flash drought as a short-term or short-lived, yet severe, drought event and one paper considers flash drought as both a short-lived and rapid onset event. Of the papers that define a flash drought by its rate of onset, the rate proposed ranges from 5 days to 8 weeks. Currently, there is not a universally accepted definition or criteria for “flash drought,” despite recent research that has called for the research community to adopt the principle of rapid-intensification of drought conditions.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-03-2022
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.7609
Abstract: In this paper, we report on the frequency of false onsets of wet season rainfall in the case of the Northern Australian wet season and investigate the role of large‐scale tropical climate processes such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden–Julian Oscillation. A false onset occurs when a wet season rainfall onset criterion is met, but follow‐up rainfall is not received for weeks or months later. Our analysis of wet season rainfall data from 1950 through 2020 shows a false onset occurs, on average, between 20 and 30% of wet seasons across all of northern Australia. This increases at a regional and local level such as at Darwin, the Northern Territory (NT), and parts of Queensland's north coast to over 50%. Seasonal climate influences, such as a La Niña pattern and a negative IOD that typically expedite the wet season rainfall onset, also increase the likelihood of a false onset over northern Australia. Our analysis also finds that periods of false onsets can sometimes, but not always, coincide with periods of rapid soil moisture depletion. The false rainfall onsets that develop into flash drought can be potentially disruptive and costly and are of potential significance for agriculture and fire management in northern Australia, and in other monsoonal climates that also typically experience a slow build‐up to the seasonal monsoon. In conclusion, effective rainfall indicates that many seasons experience ‘false onsets’ with dry conditions after early rainfall. We propose that false onsets are a physical characteristic of the climate of northern Australia which occurs with relatively high frequency. In addition, these false onsets may sometimes co‐occur with a flash drought.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 03-2022
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 11-06-2021
Abstract: Abstract. The timing of the first monsoon burst of the season, or the monsoon onset, can be a critical piece of information for agriculture, fire management, water management, and emergency response in monsoon regions. Why do some monsoon seasons start earlier or later than others? Previous research has investigated the impact of climate influences such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on monsoon variability, but most studies have considered only the impact on rainfall and not the timing of the onset. While this question could be applied to any monsoon system, this research presented in this paper has focused on the Australian monsoon. Even with the wealth of research available on the variability of the Australian monsoon season, the timing of the monsoon onset is one aspect of seasonal variability that still lacks skilful seasonal prediction. To help us better understand the influence of large-scale climate drivers on monsoon onset timing, we recreated 11 previously published Australian monsoon onset datasets and extended these to all cover the same period from the 1950/1951 through the 2020/2021 Australian wet seasons. The extended datasets were then tested for correlations with several standard climate indices to identify which climate drivers could be used as predictors for monsoon onset timing. The results show that many of the relationships between monsoon onset dates and ENSO that were previously published are not as strong when considering the extended datasets. Only a strong La Niña pattern usually has an impact on monsoon onset timing, while ENSO-neutral and El Niño patterns lacked a similar relationship. Detrended Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) data showed a weak relationship with monsoon onset dates, but when the trend in the IOD data is retained, the relationship with onset dates diminishes. Other patterns of climate variability showed little relationship with Australian monsoon onset dates. Since ENSO is a tropical climate process with global impacts, it is prudent to further re-examine its influences in other monsoon regions too, with the aim to evaluate and improve previously established prediction methodologies.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 03-2022
Publisher: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
Date: 03-2012
DOI: 10.22499/2.6201.006
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 06-09-2022
DOI: 10.3390/W14182773
Abstract: The use of social media, such as Twitter, has changed the information landscape for citizens’ participation in crisis response and recovery activities. Given that drought progression is slow and also spatially extensive, an interesting set of questions arise, such as how the usage of Twitter by a large population may change during the development of a major drought alongside how the changing usage facilitates drought detection. For this reason, contemporary analysis of how social media data, in conjunction with meteorological records, was conducted towards improvement in the detection of drought and its progression. The research utilized machine learning techniques applied over satellite-derived drought conditions in Colorado. Three different machine learning techniques were examined: the generalized linear model, support vector machines and deep learning, each applied to test the integration of Twitter data with meteorological records as a predictor of drought development. It is found that the integration of data resources is viable given that the Twitter-based model outperformed the control run which did not include social media input. Eight of the ten models tested showed quantifiable improvements in the performance over the control run model, suggesting that the Twitter-based model was superior in predicting drought severity. Future work lies in expanding this method to depict drought in the western U.S.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-2022
Abstract: Flash droughts, characterized by their unusually rapid intensification, have garnered increasing attention within the weather, climate, agriculture, and ecological communities in recent years due to their large environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Because flash droughts intensify quickly, they require different early warning capabilities and management approaches than are typically used for slower-developing “conventional” droughts. In this essay, we describe an integrated research-and-applications agenda that emphasizes the need to reconceptualize our understanding of flash drought within existing drought early warning systems by focusing on opportunities to improve monitoring and prediction. We illustrate the need for engagement among physical scientists, social scientists, operational monitoring and forecast centers, practitioners, and policy-makers to inform how they view, monitor, predict, plan for, and respond to flash drought. We discuss five related topics that together constitute the pillars of a robust flash drought early warning system, including the development of 1) a physically based identification framework, 2) comprehensive drought monitoring capabilities, and 3) improved prediction over various time scales that together 4) aid impact assessments and 5) guide decision-making and policy. We provide specific recommendations to illustrate how this fivefold approach could be used to enhance decision-making capabilities of practitioners, develop new areas of research, and provide guidance to policy-makers attempting to account for flash drought in drought preparedness and response plans.
Publisher: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
Date: 03-2011
DOI: 10.22499/2.6101.005
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 05-2023
Abstract: The 2018 exceptional drought over the Colorado Plateau motivated unprecedented responses by in iduals and organizations. Some of these responses made clear that proactive adaptive measures were fundamental to drought resilience. Climate service organizations (CSOs) supporting and observing these responses realized the utility of a network to share and document successful drought responses. In February 2020, a small group of CSOs and resource managers (RMs) met to envision the Southwest Drought Learning Network (DLN) to align with other existing efforts, but with the specific goal of enabling peer-to-peer learning to build resilience to future droughts. Since then, the network has grown into five organized teams focused on specific aspects of building drought resilience. Team activities include sharing case studies to help others learn from past experiences, hosting monthly drought briefings that introduce drought data and management tools, identifying information needed to support critical management decisions, innovating and sharing new and traditional drought monitoring technologies, and building drought resilience with indigenous communities. The network allows for collaboration and leveraging partner resources and strengths. The DLN website ( dln.swclimatehub.info/ ) hosts more information about network teams and activities. This innovative network continues to grow in response to management needs and water scarcity in the region. For the benefit of others who may be considering a similar network and supporting peer-to-peer learning, we document the history, process, and lessons learned regarding the Southwest DLN.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-03-2021
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU21-6423
Abstract: & & The topic of & #8220 Flash Drought& #8221 has rapidly gained attention within the research and drought management communities within the last decade. In preparation for a recent workshop on Flash Drought, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) prepared a literature review to synthesize the research to-date (as of August 2020) and to provide a basis for future research on the topic. Specifically, this review is focused on documenting the range of definitions of & quot flash drought& quot that have been proposed by the research community. The term first appeared in the peer-reviewed literature in 2002, and by 2020, has become an area of active research. Within that 18-year span, 19 papers have provided measurable, defining criteria used to distinguish a flash drought from other drought. Of these papers, 11 distinguish flash drought as a rapid-onset or rapid-intensification drought event while seven distinguish flash drought as a short-term or short-lived, yet severe, drought event, and one paper considers flash drought as both a short-lived and rapid-onset event. Currently, there is no universally accepted definition or criteria for & #8220 flash drought,& #8221 despite recent research that has called for the research community to adopt the principle of rapid-intensification of drought conditions. This topic was further explored at the NIDIS-sponsored Flash Drought Workshop on 1-3 December 2020, where additional perspectives were shared about the key characteristics of flash drought that should inform its definition. & We will provide a review of the literature-derived definitions as well as a brief overview of this additional discussion.& &
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 22-10-2020
Abstract: The annual Australian monsoon pattern includes an onset, or the much anticipated first active monsoon period of the season, but defining the monsoon onset has proven to be problematic. Since the first Australian monsoon onset definition by Troup in 1961 there have been many others presented. There appears to be no universally accepted method to define the Australian monsoon onset, and therefore, we present here an analysis of the methods that have been proposed. The aim of this paper is to systematically review the different methods used to define the Australian monsoon onset, adding to the work that has been done by other reviews for monsoon systems around the world. For the first time, we identify the 25 different methods that have been published for the Australian monsoon/wet season onset and compare them to identify how well they align. When considering the 57 seasons where more than one onset definition is provided, the range of dates within the season can range over several months, with an average range of 44 days and the largest range within a season of 78 days. Thus, we show that different onset definitions are capturing different events altogether and pin the ‘onset’ to different dates throughout the progression of the north Australian wet season. Some capture a ‘wet season onset’ while others capture the dynamical overturning of the atmosphere (i.e. the monsoon). In conclusion, our analysis finds that there is still a lack in real-time monitoring or prognostic capabilities of monsoon onset dates as well as limited operational applicability despite a plethora of definitions.
Location: United States of America
No related grants have been discovered for Joel Lisonbee.