ORCID Profile
0000-0001-9449-0968
Current Organisations
Australian National University
,
Monash University
,
University of Adelaide
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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 17-02-2016
Abstract: Abstract. The annual average CO2 difference between baseline data from Mauna Loa and the Southern Hemisphere increased by ∼ 0.8 µmol mol−1 (0.8 ppm) between 2009 and 2010, a step unprecedented in over 50 years of reliable data. We find no evidence for coinciding, sufficiently large source and sink changes. A statistical anomaly is unlikely due to the highly systematic nature of the variation in observations. An explanation for the step, and the subsequent 5-year stability in this north–south difference, involves interhemispheric atmospheric exchange variation. The selected data describing this episode provide a critical test for studies that employ atmospheric transport models to interpret global carbon budgets and inform management of anthropogenic emissions.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-07-2016
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 06-2004
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 1978
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 31-10-2019
DOI: 10.1017/JFM.2018.784
Abstract: Manifestly Markovian closures for the interaction of two-dimensional inhomogeneous turbulent flows with Rossby waves and topography are formulated and compared with large ensembles of direct numerical simulations (DNS) on a generalized $\\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FD}$ -plane. Three versions of the Markovian inhomogeneous closure (MIC) are established from the quasi-diagonal direct interaction approximation (QDIA) theory by modifying the response function to a Markovian form and employing respectively the current-time (quasi-stationary) fluctuation dissipation theorem (FDT), the prior-time (non-stationary) FDT and the correlation FDT. Markov equations for the triad relaxation functions are derived that carry similar information to the time-history integrals of the non-Markovian QDIA closure but become relatively more efficient for long integrations. Far from equilibrium processes are studied, where the impact of a westerly mean flow on a conical mountain generates large- litude Rossby waves in a turbulent environment, over a period of 10 days. Excellent agreement between the evolved mean streamfunction and mean and transient kinetic energy spectra are found for the three versions of the MIC and two variants of the non-Markovian QDIA compared with an ensemble of 1800 DNS. In all cases mean Rossby wavetrain pattern correlations between the closures and the DNS ensemble are greater than 0.9998.
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2016
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 1986
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 13-01-2010
Abstract: Methods motivated by non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of turbulence are applied to solve an important practical problem in geophysical fluid dynamics, namely the parametrization of subgrid-scale eddies needed in large-eddy simulations (LESs). A direct stochastic modelling scheme that is closely related to techniques based on statistical closure theories, but which is more generally applicable to complex models, is employed. Here, we parametrize the effects of baroclinically unstable subgrid-scale eddies in idealized flows with broad similarities to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current of the Southern Ocean. The subgrid model represents the effects of the unresolved eddies through a generalized Langevin equation. The subgrid dissipation and stochastic forcing covariance matrices as well as the mean subgrid forcing required by the LES model are obtained from the statistics of a high resolution direct numerical simulation (DNS). We show that employing these parametrizations leads to LES in close agreement with DNS.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2006
DOI: 10.1175/JAS3795.1
Abstract: Dynamical subgrid-scale parameterizations of stochastic backscatter, eddy drain viscosity, and net eddy viscosity have been formulated and calculated for two-dimensional turbulent flows on the sphere based on the statistics of direct numerical simulations (DNSs) with the barotropic vorticity equation. A relatively simple methodology based on a stochastic model representation of the subgrid-scale eddies, but which takes into account the memory effects of turbulent eddies, has been employed. The parameterizations have a cusp behavior at the cutoff wavenumber of the retained scales and have closely similar forms to those based on eddy d ed quasi-normal Markovian (EDQNM) and direct interaction approximation (DIA) closure models. Large-eddy simulations (LESs) incorporating DNS-based subgrid-scale parameterizations are found to have kinetic energy spectra that compare closely with the results of higher-resolution DNS at the scales of LES for both isotropic turbulence and Rossby wave turbulence. The methodology presented is general and should be equally applicable to parameterizations of baroclinic processes and convective processes. Applications of the parameterizations to climate models and prediction models are discussed.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-1988
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-2009
Abstract: A stochastic subgrid modeling method is used to parameterize horizontal and vertical subgrid-scale transfers in large-eddy simulations (LESs) of baroclinic flows with large-scale jets and energy spectra typical of the atmosphere. The approach represents the subgrid-scale eddies for LES (at resolutions of T63 and T31) by a stochastic model that takes into account the memory effects of turbulent eddies. The statistics of the model are determined from a higher-resolution (T126) direct numerical simulation (DNS). The simulations use a quasigeostrophic two-level model and the subgrid terms are inhomogeneous in the vertical and anisotropic in the horizontal and are represented by 2 × 2 matrices at each wavenumber. The parameterizations have the largest magnitudes at a cusp near the largest total wavenumbers of the truncations. At T63 the off-diagonal elements of the matrices are negligible (corresponding to effectively decoupled levels) and the diagonal elements are almost isotropic. At the lower resolution of T31 the off-diagonal elements are more important and even the diagonal elements are more anisotropic. At both resolutions, and for anisotropic or isotropized subgrid terms, LESs are in excellent agreement with higher-resolution DNS.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 06-1983
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 28-06-2014
Abstract: Parametrizations of the subgrid eddy–eddy and eddy–meanfield interactions are developed for the simulation of baroclinic ocean circulations representative of an idealized Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Benchmark simulations are generated using a spectral spherical harmonic quasi-geostrophic model with maximum truncation wavenumber of T =504, which is equivalent to a resolution of 0.24 ° globally. A stochastic parametrization is used for the eddy–eddy interactions, and a linear deterministic parametrization for the eddy–meanfield interactions. The parametrization coefficients are determined from the statistics of benchmark simulations truncated back to the large eddy simulation (LES) truncation wavenumber, T R T . A stochastic technique is used to determine the eddy–eddy coefficients, and a new least-squares regression method for the eddy–meanfield terms. Truncations are repeated for various T R , and the resolution dependence of the subgrid coefficients is identified. The mean jet structure and the kinetic and potential energy spectra resulting from the LESs closely agree with those from the benchmark simulations.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 10-1978
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2003
DOI: 10.1175/3002.1
Abstract: Various aspects of the seasonal cycle of interannual variability of the observed 300-hPa streamfunction are documented and related to dynamical influences of the seasonality of the mean circulation. The stochastically excited non ergent barotropic vorticity equation linearized about upper-tropospheric climatological mean states from each month of the year is used to identify characteristics of interannual variability that the seasonal cycle of the mean state should modulate. The result is interannual variability with (a) extratropical centers of variance that are much stronger in winter than summer and that are confined to midlatitudes during the warm season, (b) an annual cycle of preferred scales in midlatitudes with largest scales occurring during winter and a semiannual cycle of scales in the subtropics, and (c) streamfunction tendencies from interannual fluxes that adjust to the seasonally varying climatological eddies in such a way as to d them. Because these same properties are also shown to exist in nature, it is concluded that the linear framework is a useful means of understanding the seasonality of interannual disturbances and that seasonality of the mean state leaves a pronounced imprint on interannual variability. Analysis of an ensemble of general circulation model integrations indicates the signatures of seasonality produced in the stochastically driven linear framework are more useful for understanding intrinsic interannual variability than variability caused by seasonally varying sea surface temperature anomalies. Furthermore, it is found that the intrinsic variability of the GCM has properties very much like those in nature, another indication that organization resulting from anomalous forcing structure is not required for production of many aspects of the observed seasonality of interannual variability.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 11-1991
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-1971
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-01-2021
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Date: 31-12-2017
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 04-1984
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2013
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 12-2008
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 05-2005
DOI: 10.1175/JAS3405.1
Abstract: The seasonal variability of 300-hPa global streamfunction fields taken from a 40-yr period of reanalyzed observations starting on 1 January 1958 and from long 497- and 900-yr general circulation model (GCM) datasets forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is examined and analyzed in terms of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), principal oscillation patterns (POPs), and particularly finite-time principal oscillation patterns (FTPOPs). The FTPOPs are the eigenvectors of the propagator, over a 1-yr period covering the annual cycle, that has been constructed by fitting a linear stochastic model with a time-dependent matrix operator to atmospheric fluctuations based on the daily or twice-daily 300-hPa streamfunction datasets. The leading FTPOPs are large-scale teleconnection patterns and by construction they are the empirical analogs of finite-time normal modes (FTNMs) of linear instability theory. Hence, by comparing FTPOPs to FTNMs, the study provides insight into the ability of linear theory to explain seasonal and intraseasonal variability in the structure and growth rates of large-scale disturbances. The study finds that the leading FTPOP teleconnection patterns have similar seasonal cycles of relative growth rates and litudes to the leading FTNMs of the barotropic vorticity equation with 300-hPa basic states that change with the annual cycle the largest litudes of both theoretical and empirical modes occur in late boreal winter or early spring, and minimum litudes in boreal autumn, with the GCM-based FTPOPs having additional secondary maxima in early boreal summer. In each month, there are leading POPs and EOFs that closely resemble the leading FTPOPs. Also, the growth rates of leading FTNMs and FTPOPs during each season are generally similar to those of respective leading normal modes and POPs calculated for that season. Thus the perturbations are reacting to the seasonally varying basic state faster than the state is changing and this appears to explain why linear planetary wave models with time-independent basic states can be useful. Nevertheless, intermodal interference effects, as well as intramodal interference effects, between the eastward and westward propagating components of single traveling modes, can play important roles in the evolution of FTPOPs and FTNMs, particularly in boreal spring. This study has examined the roles of internal instability and interannual SST variability in the behavior of leading FTPOPs and has also used comparisons of FTPOPs and FTNMs for GCM simulations with and without interannually varying SSTs to assess the role of internal instability and SST variations in organizing interannual atmospheric variability. The comparison indicates that both factors are significant. The results found here also support a close relationship between the boreal spring predictability barrier of some models of climate prediction over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the litudes of large-scale instabilities and teleconnection patterns of the atmospheric circulation.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-1975
DOI: 10.1007/BF01609136
Publisher: Common Ground Research Networks
Date: 2011
Publisher: AIP Publishing
Date: 10-2017
DOI: 10.1063/1.5006938
Abstract: The Quasi-diagonal Direct Interaction Approximation (QDIA) closure equations are formulated for inhomogeneous classical and quantum fields interacting through dynamical equations with quadratic nonlinearity and with first or second-order time derivatives. Associated more complex inhomogeneous DIA and Self-energy closure equations are expounded as part of the derivation. The QDIA employs a bare vertex approximation and is only a few times more computationally intensive than the homogeneous DIA. Ex les of applications to turbulent classical geophysical and Navier Stokes fluids, including non-Gaussian noise, to classical and quantum Klein-Gordon equations with gϕ3 Lagrangian interaction, and to coupled field-auxiliary field equations associated with λϕ4 Lagrangian interaction are presented.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-1976
DOI: 10.1007/BF01609052
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2008
Abstract: In this paper error growth is examined using a family of inhomogeneous statistical closure models based on the quasi-diagonal direct interaction approximation (QDIA), and the results are compared with those based on ensembles of direct numerical simulations using bred perturbations. The closure model herein includes contributions from non-Gaussian terms, is realizable, and conserves kinetic energy and enstrophy. Further, unlike previous approximations, such as those based on cumulant-discard (CD) and quasi-normal (QN) hypotheses (Epstein and Fleming), the QDIA closure is stable for long integration times and is valid for both strongly non-Gaussian and strongly inhomogeneous flows. The performance of a number of variants of the closure model, incorporating different approximations to the higher-order cumulants, is examined. The roles of non-Gaussian initial perturbations and small-scale noise in determining error growth are examined. The importance of the cumulative contribution of non-Gaussian terms to the evolved error tendency is demonstrated, as well as the role of the off-diagonal covariances in the growth of errors. Cumulative and instantaneous errors are quantified using kinetic energy spectra and a small-scale palinstrophy production measure, respectively. As a severe test of the methodology herein, synoptic situations during a rapid regime transition associated with the formation of a block over the Gulf of Alaska are considered. In general, the full QDIA closure results compare well with the statistics of direct numerical simulations.
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 17-05-2011
DOI: 10.1108/17568691111129002
Abstract: Major shifts in the southern hemisphere circulation occurred during the mid‐1970s concurrent with large reductions in southern Australian winter rainfall associated with decreased cyclogenesis. The purpose of this paper is to study changes in cyclogenesis over southern Australia during the last 50 years, examine the ability of coupled climate models to simulate the winter circulation changes, and discuss projected changes in winter circulation and rainfall under different climate change scenarios. Three dimensional instability theory is used to study changes in cyclogenesis. The response of 22 coupled model intercomparison project three (CMIP3) IPCC climate models to observed increases in greenhouse gases, from pre‐industrial to the end of the twentieth century, is examined. The authors focus on two diagnostics closely related to the changes in cyclogenesis: changes in the 300 hPa zonal wind strength and changes in the baroclinic instability. Projected changes in baroclinic instability and rainfall are investigated in SRESB1, SRESA1B and SRESA2 scenarios. There has been a 30 per cent reduction in the growth rate of the leading storm track mode crossing southern Australia in the 1975‐1994 period, and a 37 per cent reduction in the 1997‐2006 period, when compared to 1949‐1968. Most of the CMIP3 models capture the changes in the zonal wind only about a third the changes in baroclinic instability. Projected changes in baroclinic instability and rainfall suggest further reductions in the growth rate of storm track modes and further large reductions in rainfall over southern Australia. The paper addresses a major cause of the reduction in Australian winter rainfall, and provides guidance on future‐projected changes.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 06-2009
DOI: 10.3137/AO1004.2009
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 17-11-2008
DOI: 10.3390/E10040635
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-1973
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-1973
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2022MS003412
Abstract: The ocean circulation dynamics can be represented as a high‐dimensional multi‐scale nonlinear system with inhomogenous meanfields and topography. Numerical simulations of the ocean dynamics resolve the large scales of motion on a computational grid, with the unresolved subgrid interactions parameterized. These simulations are highly dependent upon the grid resolution, unless the subgrid terms are appropriately parameterized. There are five fundamental classes of subgrid interactions: eddy‐eddy eddy‐topographic eddy‐meanfield meanfield‐meanfield and meanfield‐topographic. Scale dependent parameterizations representing each of these interaction classes are presented here in oceanic flows for the first time. Subgrid parameterizations are calculated and validated in baroclinic quasi‐geostrophic simulations of idealized Antarctic Circumpolar Current flows with representative mean currents and ocean floor topography. The parameterization coefficients are derived from the coarse grained statistics of high resolution reference simulations in spectral space. Stochastic and deterministic parameterizations are developed for the eddy‐eddy interactions, and deterministic forms for the remaining classes. The kinetic energy spectra and meanfield resulting from large eddy simulations (LES) adopting these coefficients accurately replicate those of the reference simulation. The eddy‐eddy interactions are dominant, but all classes need to be parameterized for best results. For LES where baroclinic instability is explicitly resolved the stochastic variants out‐perform the deterministic ones across all scales. When baroclinic instability is not explicitly resolved, the stochastic variants out‐perform the deterministic cases at the large scales, but introduce some distortions at the smallest resolved scales. This study provides an assessment of the relevant strengths of the subgrid interaction classes in an idealized yet representative ocean.
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: 1986
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 30-03-2012
Abstract: Subgrid-scale parameterizations with self-similar scaling laws are developed for large-eddy simulations (LESs) of atmospheric flows. The key new contribution is the development of scaling laws that govern how these parameterizations depend on the LES resolution and flow strength. Both stochastic and deterministic representations of the effects of subgrid-scale eddies on the retained scales are considered. The stochastic subgrid model consists of a backscatter noise term and a drain eddy viscosity, while in the deterministic subgrid model the net effect of these two terms is represented by a net eddy viscosity. In both cases the subgrid transfers are calculated self-consistently from the statistics of higher-resolution-reference direct numerical simulations (DNSs). The dependence of the subgrid parameterizations on the resolution of the LESs is determined for DNSs having resolutions up to triangular 504 wavenumber truncations. The subgrid parameterizations are developed for typical large-scale atmospheric flows and for different strengths and spectra of kinetic energy within a quasigeostrophic spectral model. LESs using the stochastic and deterministic subgrid parameterizations are shown to replicate the kinetic energy spectra of the reference DNS at the scales of the LESs. It is found that the maximum strengths of the drain, net, and backscatter viscosities satisfy scaling laws dependent on the LES truncation wavenumber and that the dependence of these eddy viscosities on total wavenumber can also be written as essentially universal functions that depend on flow strength and resolution. The scaling laws make the subgrid-scale parameterizations more generally applicable in LESs and remove the need to generate them from reference DNSs.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 03-1983
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 05-09-2005
Publisher: AIP
Date: 2010
DOI: 10.1063/1.3460201
Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Date: 2011
DOI: 10.1155/2011/353829
Abstract: During the last sixty years, there have been large changes in the southern hemisphere winter circulation and reductions in rainfall particularly in the southern Australian region. Here we examine the corresponding changes in dynamical modes of variability ranging from storm tracks, onset-of-blocking modes, northwest cloud-band disturbances, Antarctic low-frequency modes, intraseasonal oscillations, and African easterly waves. Our study is performed using a global two-level primitive equation instability-model with reanalyzed observed July three-dimensional basic states for the periods 1949–1968, 1975–1994, and 1997–2006. We relate the reduction in the winter rainfall in the southwest of Western Australia since the mid-1970s and in south-eastern Australia since the mid-1990s to changes in growth rate and structures of leading storm track and blocking modes. We find that cyclogenesis and onset-of-blocking modes growing on the subtropical jet have significantly reduced growth rates in the latter periods. On the other hand there is a significant increase in the growth rate of northwest cloud-band modes and intraseasonal oscillation disturbances that cross Australia and are shown to be related to recent positive trends in winter rainfall over northwest Western Australia and central Australia, in general. The implications of our findings are discussed.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-1983
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-1989
DOI: 10.1007/BF01058235
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 20-02-2015
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 12-2010
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2017
Publisher: Australian Mathematical Publishing Association, Inc.
Date: 27-11-2017
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 1980
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-09-2017
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 20-11-2008
DOI: 10.3390/E10040684
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 24-10-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2016RG000538
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 10-04-2004
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2015
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 05-1985
Publisher: Australian Mathematical Publishing Association, Inc.
Date: 09-11-2015
Publisher: Australian Mathematical Publishing Association, Inc.
Date: 22-12-2015
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2013
Abstract: Inverse methods for determining the anomalous mean forcing functions responsible for climate change are investigated. First, an iterative method is considered, and it is shown to successfully reproduce forcing functions for various idealized and observed climate states using quasigeostrophic simulations. Second, a new inverse method that is more computationally efficient is presented. This method closes the mean-field equations by representing the second-order statistical moments, the transient eddy heat and momentum (or potential vorticity) fluxes, as linear functions of the mean field. The coefficients of the linear parameterization are determined by least squares regression. It is shown that the new method also successfully reproduces the anomalous forcing functions responsible for climatic changes in quasigeostrophic simulations.
Publisher: Australian Mathematical Publishing Association, Inc.
Date: 18-10-2019
DOI: 10.21914/ANZIAMJ.V60I0.14092
Abstract: New methods are presented for determining the role of coupled ocean-atmosphere model climate bias on the strength and variability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and on the seasonal ensemble prediction of El Nino and La Nina events. An intermediate complexity model with a global atmosphere coupled to a Pacific basin ocean is executed with parallelised algorithms to produce computationally efficient year-long forecasts of large ensembles of coupled flow fields, beginning every month between 1980 and 1999. Firstly, the model is provided with forcing functions that reproduce the average annual cycle of climatology of the atmosphere and ocean based on reanalysed observations. We also configure the model to generate realistic ENSO fluctuations. Next, an ensemble prediction scheme is employed which produces perturbations that lify rapidly over a month. These perturbations are added to the analyses and give the initial conditions for the ensemble forecasts. The skill of the forecasts is presented and the dependency on the annual and ENSO cycles determined. Secondly, we replace the forcing functions in our model with functions that reproduce the averaged annual cycles of climatology of two state of the art, comprehensive Coupled General Circulation Models. The changes in skill of subsequent ensemble forecasts elucidate the roles of model bias in error growth and potential predictability. References C. S. Frederiksen, J. S. Frederiksen, and R. C. Balgovind. ENSO variability and prediction in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Aust. Met. Ocean. J., 59:35–52, 2010a. URL www.bom.gov.au/jshess apers.php?year=2010. C. S. Frederiksen, J. S. Frederiksen, and R. C. Balgovind. Dynamic variability and seasonal predictability in an intermediate complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere model. In Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Computational Techniques and Applications Conference, CTAC-2012, volume 54 of ANZIAM J., pages C34–C55, 2013a. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v54i0.6296. C. S. Frederiksen, J. S. Frederiksen, J. M. Sisson, and S. L. Osbrough. Trends and projections of Southern Hemisphere baroclinicity: the role of external forcing and impact on Australian rainfall. Clim. Dyn., 48:3261–3282, 2017. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3263-8. J. S. Frederiksen, C. S. Frederiksen, and S. L. Osbrough. Seasonal ensemble prediction with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Aust. Met. Ocean. J., 59:53–66, 2010b. URL www.bom.gov.au/jshess apers.php?year=2010. J. S. Frederiksen, C. S. Frederiksen, and S. L. Osbrough. Methods of ensemble prediction for seasonal forecasts with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. In Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Computational Techniques and Applications Conference, CTAC-2012, volume 54 of ANZIAM J., pages C361–C376, 2013b. doi:10.21914/anziamj.v54i0.6509. P. R. Gent, G. Danabasoglu, L. J. Donner, M. M. Holland, E. C. Hunke, S. R. Jayne, D. M. Lawrence, R. B. Neale, P. J. Rasch, M. Vertenstein, P. H. Worley, Z.-L. Yang, and M. Zhang. The community Climate System Model version 4. J. Clim., 24:4973–4991, 2011. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1. S. Grainger, C. S. Frederiksen, and X. Zheng. Assessment of modes of interannual variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models. J. Clim., 27:8107–8125, 2014. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00251.1. E. Kalnay, M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, L. Gandin, M. Iredell, S. Saha, G. White, J. Woollen, Y. Zhu, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, W. Higgins, J. Janowiak, K. C. Mo, C. Ropelewski, J. Wang, A. Leetmaa, R. Reynolds, R. Jenne, and D. Joseph. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77:437–472, 1996. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077 :TNYRP .0.CO . H. A. Rashid, A. Sullivan, A. C. Hirst, D. Bi, X. Zhou, and S. J. Marsland. Evaluation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the ACCESS coupled model simulations for CMIP5. Aust. Met. Ocean. J., 63:161–180, 2013. doi:10.22499/2.6301.010. K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93:485–498, 2012. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-11-2021
DOI: 10.5194/WCD-2021-72
Abstract: Abstract. Systematic changes, since the beginning of the 20th century, in average and extreme Australian rainfall and temperatures indicate that Southern Australian climate has undergone regime transitions into a drier and warmer state. South-west Western Australia (SWWA) experienced the most dramatic drying trend with average streamflow into Perth dams, in the last decade, just 20 % of that before the 1960s and extreme, decile 10, rainfall reduced to near zero. In south-eastern Australia (SEA) systematic decreases in average and extreme cool season rainfall became evident in the late 1990s with a halving of the area experiencing average decile 10 rainfall in the early 21st century compared with that for the 20th century. The shift in annual surface temperatures over SWWA and SEA, and indeed for Australia as a whole, has occurred primarily over the last 20 years with the percentage area experiencing extreme maximum temperatures in decile 10 increasing to an average of more than 45 % since the start of the 21st century compared with less than 3 % for the 20th century mean. Average maximum temperatures have also increased by circa 1 °C for SWWA and SEA over the last 20 years. The climate changes are associated with atmospheric circulation shifts and are indicative of second order regime transitions, apart from extreme temperatures for which the dramatic increases are suggestive of first order transitions.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-2013
Abstract: Tropical–extratropical interactions of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs), based on 30 years (1979–2009) of northern winter observations and theory, are compared. The phase relationships between the tropical signal of the leading theoretical ISO for a January 1979 basic state and the development of Pacific–North America (PNA)-like and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection patterns are found to compare closely with those for the observed Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). For both observations and theory positive NAO occurs 5–15 days after MJO convection [negative outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and positive precipitation] and negative upper-troposphere velocity potential ISO anomalies are focused over the central Indian Ocean. The fluxes of wave activity, based on the upper-troposphere streamfunction of the leading theoretical mode, indicate strong tropical–extratropical interactions and have very similar structures to those obtained by H. Lin et al. based on observations of extratropical anomalies associated with MJO convection. The second leading theoretical ISO mode for January 1979 has quite similar properties to the leading ISO mode but has a longer period of 44.5 days compared with 34.4 days and a more distinct quadrupole streamfunction structure straddling the equator. Theoretical ISO modes for other observed basic states, including January 1988 and the 30-yr average of January 1980–2009, again link the tropical ISO signal with Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns, particularly the NAO. The growth rates of ISO modes increase with stronger baroclinicity of the basic-state zonal winds in the main jet streams and, importantly, with increased tropical–extratropical interactions because of stronger meridional winds.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 16-04-2014
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 27-10-2016
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 04-01-2012
DOI: 10.3390/E14010032
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 08-04-2015
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 14-04-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Due to the massive disparity between the largest and smallest eddies in the atmosphere and ocean, it is not possible to simulate these flows by explicitly resolving all scales on a computational grid. Instead the large scales are explicitly resolved, and the interactions between the unresolved subgrid turbulence and large resolved scales are parameterised. If these interactions are not properly represented then an increase in resolution will not necessarily improve the accuracy of the large scales. This has been a significant and long-standing problem since the earliest climate simulations. Historically subgrid models for the atmosphere and ocean have been developed in isolation, with the structure of each motivated by different physical phenomena. Here we solve the turbulence closure problem by determining the parameterisation coefficients (eddy viscosities) from the subgrid statistics of high-resolution quasi-geostrophic atmospheric and oceanic simulations. These subgrid coefficients are characterised into a set of simple unifying scaling laws, for truncations made within the enstrophy-cascading inertial range. The ocean additionally has an inverse energy cascading range, within which the subgrid model coefficients have different scaling properties. Simulations adopting these scaling laws are shown to reproduce the statistics of the reference benchmark simulations across resolved scales, with orders of magnitude improvement in computational efficiency. This reduction in both resolution dependence and computational effort will improve the efficiency and accuracy of geophysical research and operational activities that require data generated by general circulation models, including weather, seasonal, and climate prediction transport studies and understanding natural variability and extreme events.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 18-04-2012
DOI: 10.3390/E14040769
Publisher: Stockholm University Press
Date: 2007
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 08-2010
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 10-1990
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 06-1991
Publisher: Australian Mathematical Publishing Association, Inc.
Date: 31-01-2016
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-1975
DOI: 10.1007/BF01614097
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 11-1983
Publisher: Australian Mathematical Publishing Association, Inc.
Date: 30-04-2006
No related grants have been discovered for Jorgen Frederiksen.