ORCID Profile
0000-0001-7321-047X
Current Organisation
Natural Resources Canada
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Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2009
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF002751
Abstract: Sea level rise (SLR) is a long‐lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process‐based models. However, risk‐averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high‐end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high‐end scenarios. High‐end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1‐2.6) relative to pre‐industrial values our high‐end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5‐8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long‐term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi‐meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high‐end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high‐end SLR.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-04-2023
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-023-00703-X
Abstract: Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation lanning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages – Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 15-04-2009
DOI: 10.1029/2008JB006077
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 05-07-2022
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-1627606/V1
Abstract: Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in coastal adaptation is increasingly recognized as crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections comprising 253 coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation lanning from 49 countries with time frames of 2050 and 2100. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universally recognized, only 71% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard structure, 53% are planning for a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering an unlikely high-end scenario. Countries with long histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research proves insightful for improving sea-level science, and informs important ongoing efforts on the application of the science which are essential to promote effective adaptation.
No related grants have been discovered for Thomas James.