ORCID Profile
0000-0002-6749-010X
Current Organisation
Pohang University of Science and Technology
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Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 16-10-2013
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00007.1
Abstract: In recent decades, Southern Hemisphere midlatitude regions such as southern Africa, southeastern Australia, and southern Chile have experienced a reduction in austral autumn precipitation the cause of which is poorly understood. This study focuses on the ability of global climate models that form part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 to simulate these trends, their relationship with extratropical and subtropical processes, and implications for future precipitation changes. Models underestimate both the historical autumn poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zone and the positive southern annular mode (SAM) trend. The multimodel ensemble (MME) is also unable to capture the spatial pattern of observed precipitation trends across semiarid midlatitude regions. However, in temperate regions that are located farther poleward such as southern Chile, the MME simulates observed precipitation declines. The MME shows a strong consensus in twenty-first-century declines in autumn precipitation across southern Chile in both the medium–low and high representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and across southern Africa in the high RCP scenario, but little change across southeastern Australia. Projecting a strong positive SAM trend and continued subtropical dry-zone expansion, the models converge on large SAM and dry-zone-expansion-induced precipitation declines across southern midlatitudes. In these regions, the strength of future precipitation trends is proportional to the strength of modeled trends in these phenomena, suggesting that unabated greenhouse gas–induced climate change will have a large impact on austral autumn precipitation in such midlatitude regions.
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 12-08-2022
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-1938270/V1
Abstract: Convective extreme El Niño (CEE) events, characterized by strong convective events in the eastern Pacific 1-2 , are known to have a direct link to anomalous climate conditions worldwide 3-5 , and it has been reported that CEE will occur more frequently under greenhouse warming 1,6-7 . Here, using a set of CO 2 r -up and –down ensemble experiments, we show that frequency and maximum intensity of CEE events increase further in the r -down period from the r -up period. Such changes in CEE are associated with the southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and intensified nonlinear rainfall response to SST change in the r -down period. The increasing frequency of CEE has substantial impacts on regional abnormal events and contributed considerably to regional mean climate changes to the CO 2 forcings.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 22-06-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL086875
Abstract: This study conducts a detection and attribution analysis of the observed changes in extreme precipitation during 1951–2015. Observed and CMIP6 multimodel simulated changes in annual maximum daily and consecutive 5‐day precipitation are compared using an optimal fingerprinting technique for different spatial scales from global land, Northern Hemisphere extratropics, tropics, three continental regions (North America and western and eastern Eurasia), and global “dry” and “wet” land areas (as defined by their average extreme precipitation intensities). Results indicate that anthropogenic greenhouse gas influence is robustly detected in the observed intensification of extreme precipitation over the global land and most of the subregions considered, all with clear separation from natural and anthropogenic aerosol forcings. Also, the human‐induced greenhouse gas increases are found to be a dominant contributor to the observed increase in extreme precipitation intensity, which largely follows the increased moisture availability under global warming.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 18-12-2014
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062459
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF003434
Abstract: When projecting future monsoon changes by carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) pathway, most studies have analyzed precipitation responses without considering monsoon area (total area of monsoon domain, MA) variations. However, how MA responds to CO 2 removal remains uncertain. This study evaluates MA variations and impacts in idealized CO 2 r ‐up (toward CO 2 quadrupling), r ‐down, and stabilized simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1. Global MA negatively overshoots (i.e., recovery with decreasing tendency beyond the original MA) during the r ‐down period due to reduced or rapidly recovered MA in several regional monsoons, including Northern and Southern Africa, South and East Asia, and South America, showing hysteresis when comparing CO 2 r ‐up and r ‐down periods despite similar global warming levels. These non‐linear regional MA variations come from distinct regional summer and winter precipitation variations, which are found to be mostly associated with Intertropical Convergence Zone movements and El Niño‐like response. Further, regional monsoon precipitation characteristics also vary through CO 2 r ‐up and r ‐down periods consistently with overall hysteresis. Changes in total monsoon precipitation resemble the distinct responses of MA. Our results suggest that regions characterized by a monsoonal climate may experience reduced seasonal rainfall variations under net‐negative CO 2 emissions.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-05-2016
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 17-02-2018
DOI: 10.1002/2017RG000568
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-2018
Abstract: Observed long-term variations in summer season timing and length in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents and their subregions were analyzed using temperature-based indices. The climatological mean showed coastal–inland contrast summer starts and ends earlier inland than in coastal areas because of differences in heat capacity. Observations for the past 60 years (1953–2012) show lengthening of the summer season with earlier summer onset and delayed summer withdrawal across the NH. The summer onset advance contributed more to the observed increase in summer season length in many regions than the delay of summer withdrawal. To understand anthropogenic and natural contributions to the observed change, summer season trends from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel simulations forced with the observed external forcings [anthropogenic plus natural forcing (ALL), natural forcing only (NAT), and greenhouse gas forcing only (GHG)] were analyzed. ALL and GHG simulations were found to reproduce the overall observed global and regional lengthening trends, but NAT had negligible trends, which implies that increased greenhouse gases were the main cause of the observed changes. However, ALL runs tend to underestimate the observed trend of summer onset and overestimate that of withdrawal, the causes of which remain to be determined. Possible contributions of multidecadal variabilities, such as Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, to the observed regional trends in summer season length were also assessed. The results suggest that multidecadal variability can explain a moderate portion (about ±10%) of the observed trends in summer season length, mainly over the high latitudes.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 27-10-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002274
Abstract: Recent climate change is characterized by rapid global warming, but the goal of the Paris Agreement is to achieve a stable climate where global temperatures remain well below 2°C above pre‐industrial levels. Inferences about conditions at or below 2°C are usually made based on transient climate projections. To better understand climate change impacts on natural and human systems under the Paris Agreement, we must understand how a stable climate may differ from transient conditions at the same warming level. Here we examine differences between transient and quasi‐equilibrium climates using a statistical framework applied to greenhouse gas‐only model simulations. This allows us to infer climate change patterns at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming in both transient and quasi‐equilibrium climate states. We find substantial local differences between seasonal‐average temperatures dependent on the rate of global warming, with mid‐latitude land regions in boreal summer considerably warmer in a transient climate than a quasi‐equilibrium state at both 1.5°C and 2°C global warming. In a rapidly warming world, such locations may experience a temporary emergence of a local climate change signal that weakens if the global climate stabilizes and the Paris Agreement goals are met. Our research demonstrates that the rate of global warming must be considered in regional projections.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-04-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067448
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 13-04-2021
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-03-2022
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU22-9418
Abstract: & & The increasing risk of dry extremes and droughts and their further projected exacerbation due to climate change urges the development of reliable risk assessments and mitigation pathways on a regional and global scale. This foremost requires accurate and unambiguous model predictions of dry extremes, as this underpins the effectiveness of the proposed strategies. At present, however, the confidence in regional drought projections is defined as & #8216 medium to low' by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report (AR6), and reducing this uncertainty remains one of the main goals in coming years. & br& In this study, the bias in future projected changes in annual meteorological drought duration (hereafter, longest annual drought, LAD) is assessed in the ensemble of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. The analyses show that it is the present-day inter-model spread in LAD climatology that largely determines the inter-model uncertainty in future predicted LAD changes. Hereby, both CMIP5 and CMIP6 model ensembles indicate a robust & #8220 dry-model-gets-drier& #8221 relationship in future LAD projections on a global and regional scale. Correcting for this bias using emerging constraint principles and past observational LAD information, we find that nearly half of the world's land area with projected increases in drought duration is underestimating the predicted model ensemble mean change, imposing higher-than-expected risks to the societies and ecosystems. Analysis of physical mechanisms that could underlie this emergent & #8220 resent-future relationship& #8221 points to differences in the responses of & #8220 dry models& #8221 and & #8220 wet models& #8221 to CO2 forcing. Dry and wet models show differences in climate states, which support the role of land& #8211 atmosphere feedbacks and convective scheme sensitivity to atmospheric moisture in the spread of future LAD change projections. & br& In conclusion, the study reveals world regions where climate change may cause stronger drought duration aggravation than expected, and emphasizes the importance of reducing systematic model errors, which are presently largely owed to rainfall biases. Correcting these biases will increase the confidence of future dry extremes predictions, a prerequisite for the effective drought risk reduction in the near future with direct benefits for human and natural systems.& &
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 15-08-2014
DOI: 10.1038/SREP06087
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 13-07-2023
DOI: 10.1038/S41558-023-01728-Y
Abstract: Earth system models exhibit considerable intermodel spread in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation intensity and its carbon uptake, resulting in great uncertainty in future climate. Here we show that present-day sea surface salinity (SSS) in the North Atlantic subpolar region modulates anthropogenic carbon uptake in the North Atlantic, and thus can be used to constrain future warming. Specifically, models that generate a present-day higher SSS in the North Atlantic subpolar region generate a greater uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the future, suppressing the greenhouse effect and resulting in slower warming, and vice versa in models with a present-day lower SSS. Emergent constraints based on the observed SSS greatly reduce the uncertainty of the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature warming and accumulative carbon uptake by about 30% and 53%, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5–8.5 scenario.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-07-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069453
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 16-01-2013
DOI: 10.1002/JGRD.50164
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 26-05-2023
Abstract: Understanding the impacts of volcanic eruptions on the atmospheric circulations and surface climate in the extratropics is important for inter-annual to decadal climate prediction. Previous studies on the Northern Hemisphere climate responses to volcanic eruptions have shown that volcanic eruptions likely induce northern Eurasian warming through the intensified Arctic polar vortex in the stratosphere and the positive phase of Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation in the troposphere. However, large uncertainties remain and the detailed physical processes have yet to be determined. The circulation responses in the Southern Hemisphere also remain controversial with large differences between the observed and model-simulated results. In this paper, we review previous studies on the extratropical circulation and surface climate responses to volcanic eruptions and update our understanding by examining the latest observational datasets and climate model simulations. We also propose new insights into the crucial role of the latitude of volcanic eruptions in determining the extratropical circulation changes, which has received less attention. Finally, we discuss uncertainty factors that may have important implications to the extratropical circulation responses to volcanic eruptions and suggest future directions to resolve those issues through systematic model experiments.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 23-06-2023
Abstract: Convective extreme El Niño (CEE) events, characterized by strong convective events in the eastern Pacific, are known to have a direct link to anomalous climate conditions worldwide, and it has been reported that CEE will occur more frequently under greenhouse warming. Here, using a set of CO 2 r -up and r -down ensemble experiments, we show that frequency and maximum intensity of CEE events increase further in the r -down period from the r -up period. These changes in CEE are associated with the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and intensified nonlinear rainfall response to sea surface temperature change in the r -down period. The increasing frequency of CEE has substantial impacts on regional abnormal events and contributed considerably to regional mean climate changes to the CO 2 forcings.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-09-2020
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.6796
Location: Korea, Republic of
No related grants have been discovered for Seung-Ki Min.