ORCID Profile
0000-0003-2822-1334
Current Organisation
University of York
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Publisher: Wiley
Date: 23-06-2006
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 18-07-2008
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 2004
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE02121
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-2010
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2009
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 02-2011
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 04-04-2012
Abstract: Different vegetation types can generate variation in microclimates at local scales, potentially buffering species from adverse climates. To determine if species could respond to such microclimates under climatic warming, we evaluated whether ectothermic species (butterflies) can exploit favourable microclimates and alter their use of different habitats in response to year-to-year variation in climate. In both relatively cold (Britain) and warm (Catalonia) regions of their geographical ranges, most species shifted into cooler, closed habitats (e.g. woodland) in hot years, and into warmer, open habitats (e.g. grassland) in cooler years. Additionally, three-quarters of species occurred in closed habitats more frequently in the warm region than in the cool region. Thus, species shift their local distributions and alter their habitat associations to exploit favourable microclimates, although the magnitude of the shift (approx. 1.3% of in iduals from open to shade, per degree Celsius) is unlikely to buffer species from impacts of regional climate warming.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-12-2012
DOI: 10.1111/ELE.12054
Abstract: Climate change is leading to the development of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies that are likely to have substantial impacts on global bio ersity. Of these, approaches to maintain carbon within existing natural ecosystems could have particularly large benefits for bio ersity. However, the geographical distributions of terrestrial carbon stocks and bio ersity differ. Using conservation planning analyses for the New World and Britain, we conclude that a carbon-only strategy would not be effective at conserving bio ersity, as have previous studies. Nonetheless, we find that a combined carbon-bio ersity strategy could simultaneously protect 90% of carbon stocks (relative to a carbon-only conservation strategy) and > 90% of the bio ersity (relative to a bio ersity-only strategy) in both regions. This combined approach encapsulates the principle of complementarity, whereby locations that contain different sets of species are prioritised, and hence disproportionately safeguard localised species that are not protected effectively by carbon-only strategies. It is efficient because localised species are concentrated into small parts of the terrestrial land surface, whereas carbon is somewhat more evenly distributed and carbon stocks protected in one location are equivalent to those protected elsewhere. Efficient compromises can only be achieved when bio ersity and carbon are incorporated together within a spatial planning process.
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 14-08-2012
Abstract: The benefits of protected areas (PAs) for bio ersity have been questioned in the context of climate change because PAs are static, whereas the distributions of species are dynamic. Current PAs may, however, continue to be important if they provide suitable locations for species to colonize at their leading-edge range boundaries, thereby enabling spread into new regions. Here, we present an empirical assessment of the role of PAs as targets for colonization during recent range expansions. Records from intensive surveys revealed that seven bird and butterfly species have colonized PAs 4.2 (median) times more frequently than expected from the availability of PAs in the landscapes colonized. Records of an additional 256 invertebrate species with less-intensive surveys supported these findings and showed that 98% of species are disproportionately associated with PAs in newly colonized parts of their ranges. Although colonizing species favor PAs in general, species vary greatly in their reliance on PAs, reflecting differences in the dependence of in idual species on particular habitats and other conditions that are available only in PAs. These findings highlight the importance of current PAs for facilitating range expansions and show that a small subset of the landscape receives a high proportion of colonizations by range-expanding species.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 22-07-2022
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.16335
Abstract: Land‐use change is widely regarded as a simplifying and homogenising force in nature. In contrast, analysing global land‐use reconstructions from the 10th to 20th centuries, we found progressive increases in the number, evenness, and ersity of ecosystems (including human‐modified land‐use types) present across most of the Earth's land surface. Ecosystem ersity increased more rapidly after ~1700 CE, then slowed or slightly declined (depending on the metric) following the mid‐20th century acceleration of human impacts. The results also reveal increasing spatial differentiation, rather than homogenisation, in both the presence‐absence and area‐coverage of different ecosystem types at sub‐global scales—at least, prior to the mid‐20th century. Nonetheless, geographic homogenization was revealed for a subset of analyses at a global scale, reflecting the now‐global presence of certain human‐modified ecosystem types. Our results suggest that, while human land‐use changes have caused declines in relatively undisturbed or “primary” ecosystem types, they have also driven increases in ecosystem ersity over the last millennium.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 11-10-2018
DOI: 10.1002/WCC.551
Abstract: Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to conserve them. The last three decades have seen exponential growth in the number of studies evaluating how, how much, why, when, and where species will be impacted by climate change. We provide an overview of the rapidly developing field of climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) and describe key concepts, terms, steps and considerations. We stress the importance of identifying the full range of pressures, impacts and their associated mechanisms that species face and using this as a basis for selecting the appropriate assessment approaches for quantifying vulnerability. We outline four CCVA assessment approaches, namely trait‐based, correlative, mechanistic and combined approaches and discuss their use. Since any assessment can deliver unreliable or even misleading results when incorrect data and parameters are applied, we discuss finding, selecting, and applying input data and provide ex les of open‐access resources. Because rare, small‐range, and declining‐range species are often of particular conservation concern while also posing significant challenges for CCVA, we describe alternative ways to assess them. We also describe how CCVAs can be used to inform IUCN Red List assessments of extinction risk. Finally, we suggest future directions in this field and propose areas where research efforts may be particularly valuable. This article is categorized under: Climate, Ecology, and Conservation Extinction Risk
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 10-2009
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 27-05-2009
Abstract: The hope among policy-makers and scientists alike is that conservation strategies designed to protect bio ersity also provide direct benefits to people by protecting other vital ecosystem services. The few studies that have examined the delivery of ecosystem services by existing conservation efforts have concentrated on large, ‘wilderness’-style bio ersity reserves. However, such reserves are not realistic options for densely populated regions. Here, we provide the first analyses that compare representation of bio ersity and three other ecosystem services across several contrasting conservation strategies in a human-dominated landscape (England). We show that small protected areas and protected landscapes (restrictive zoning) deliver high carbon storage and bio ersity, while existing incentive payment (agri-environment) schemes target areas that offer little advantage over other parts of England in terms of bio ersity, carbon storage and agricultural production. A fourth ecosystem service—recreation—is under-represented by all three strategies. Our findings are encouraging as they illustrate that restrictive zoning can play a major role in protecting natural capital assets in densely populated regions. However, trade-offs exist even among the four ecosystem services we considered, suggesting that a portfolio of conservation and sustainability investments will be needed to deliver both bio ersity and the other ecosystem services demanded by society.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-06-2015
DOI: 10.1111/ELE.12463
Abstract: Metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes depends on habitat patches that can support resilient local populations and sufficient connectivity between patches. Yet epidemiological theory for metapopulations has largely overlooked the capacity of particular patches to act as refuges from disease, and has suggested that connectivity can undermine persistence. Here, we show that relatively warm and saline wetlands are environmental refuges from chytridiomycosis for an endangered Australian frog, and act jointly with connectivity to sustain frog metapopulations. We coupled models of microclimate and infection probability to map chytrid prevalence, and demonstrate a strong negative relationship between chytrid prevalence and the persistence of frog populations. Simulations confirm that frog metapopulations are likely to go extinct when they lack environmental refuges from disease and lose connectivity between patches. This study demonstrates that environmental heterogeneity can mediate host-pathogen interactions in fragmented landscapes, and provides evidence that connectivity principally supports host metapopulations afflicted by facultative pathogens.
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 02-08-2005
Abstract: Across large parts of the world, wildlife has to coexist with human activity in highly modified and fragmented landscapes. Combining concepts from population viability analysis and spatial reserve design, this study develops efficient quantitative methods for identifying conservation core areas at large, even national or continental scales. The proposed methods emphasize long-term population persistence, are applicable to both fragmented and natural landscape structures, and produce a hierarchical zonation of regional conservation priority. The methods are applied to both observational data for threatened butterflies at the scale of Britain and modelled probability of occurrence surfaces for indicator species in part of Australia. In both cases, priority landscapes important for conservation management are identified.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2009
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 17-03-2021
DOI: 10.1101/2021.03.16.435590
Abstract: Land-use change is widely regarded as a simplifying and homogenising force in nature. In contrast, analysing global land-use reconstructions from the 10 th to 20 th centuries, we found progressive increases in the number, evenness, and ersity of ecosystems (including human-modified land-use types) across the globe. Ecosystem ersity increased more rapidly after ∼1700CE, then slowed or partially reversed (depending on the metric) following the mid-20 th century acceleration of human impacts. Differentiation also generally increased across space, with homogenization only evident in the presence-absence analysis of ecosystem types at the global scale. Our results suggest that human land-use changes have primarily driven increases in ecosystem ersity over the last millennium.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 13-11-2008
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-2011
DOI: 10.1890/10-1865.1
Abstract: Pressure on ecosystems to provide various different and often conflicting services is immense and likely to increase. The impacts and success of conservation prioritization will be enhanced if the needs of competing land uses are recognized at the planning stage. We develop such methods and illustrate them with data about competing land uses in Great Britain, with the aim of developing a conservation priority ranking that balances between needs of bio ersity conservation, carbon storage, agricultural value, and urban development potential. While both carbon stocks and bio ersity are desirable features from the point of view of conservation, they compete with the needs of agriculture and urban development. In Britain the greatest conflicts exist between bio ersity and urban areas, while the largest carbon stocks occur mostly in Scotland in areas with low agricultural or urban pressure. In our application, we were able successfully to balance the spatial allocation of alternative land uses so that conflicts between them were much smaller than had they been developed separately. The proposed methods and software, Zonation, are applicable to structurally similar prioritization problems globally.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-09-2010
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 09-2011
DOI: 10.1890/09-2195.1
Abstract: To inform the design and implementation of land-use policies that consider the variety of goods and services people derive from ecosystems, it is essential to understand spatial patterns of in idual services, how multiple services relate to each other, and how these relationships vary across spatial scales and localities. Despite the importance of freshwater as a determinant of regional economic and human demographic patterns, there are surprisingly few studies that map the provision of a range of services associated with the quality of the aquatic environment. Here we examine relationships between indicators of riverine water and associated habitat quality, freshwater bio ersity, three terrestrial ecosystem services, and terrestrial bio ersity across England and Wales. The results indicate strong associations between our indicators of freshwater services. However, a comparison of these indicators of freshwater services with other ecosystem services (carbon storage, agricultural production, recreation) and bio ersity of species of conservation concern in the surrounding terrestrial landscape shows no clear relationships. While there are potential policy "win-wins" for the protection of multiple services shown by associations between indicators of freshwater services and carbon storage in upland areas of Britain, the other ecosystem services showed either negative or no relationships with the indicators of freshwater services. We also consider the influence that spatial scale has on these relationships using River Basin Districts. Our results indicate that relationships between indicators of services can change dramatically depending on the societal pressures and other regional conditions. Thus, the delivery of multiple ecosystem services requires the development of regional strategies, or of national strategies that take account of regional variation.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-2010
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-07-2011
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-04-2023
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.16680
Abstract: Compositional change is a ubiquitous response of ecological communities to environmental drivers of global change, but is often regarded as evidence of declining “biotic integrity” relative to historical baselines. Adaptive compositional change, however, is a foundational idea in evolutionary biology, whereby changes in gene frequencies within species boost population‐level fitness, allowing populations to persist as the environment changes. Here, we present an analogous idea for ecological communities based on core concepts of fitness and selection. Changes in community composition (i.e., frequencies of genetic differences among species) in response to environmental change should normally increase the average fitnessof community members. We refer to compositional changes that improve the functional match, or “fit,” between organisms' traits and their environment as adaptive community dynamics . Environmental change (e.g., land‐use change) commonly reduces the fit between antecedent communities and new environments. Subsequent change in community composition in response to environmental changes, however, should normally increase community‐level fit, as the success of at least some constituent species increases. We argue that adaptive community dynamics are likely to improve or maintain ecosystem function (e.g., by maintaining productivity). Adaptive community responses may simultaneously produce some changes that are considered societally desirable (e.g., increased carbon storage) and others that are undesirable (e.g., declines of certain species), just as evolutionary responses within species may be deemed desirable (e.g., evolutionary rescue of an endangered species) or undesirable (e.g., enhanced virulence of an agricultural pest). When assessing possible management interventions, it is important to distinguish between drivers of environmental change (e.g., undesired climate warming) and adaptive community responses, which may generate some desirable outcomes. Efforts to facilitate, accept, or resist ecological change require separate consideration of drivers and responses, and may highlight the need to reconsider preferences for historical baseline communities over communities that are better adapted to the new conditions.
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 29-07-2008
Abstract: Why do areas with high numbers of small-range species occur where they do? We found that, for butterfly and plant species in Europe, and for bird species in the Western Hemisphere, such areas coincide with regions that have rare climates, and are higher and colder areas than surrounding regions. Species with small range sizes also tend to occur in climatically erse regions, where species are likely to have been buffered from extinction in the past. We suggest that the centres of high small-range species richness we examined predominantly represent interglacial relict areas where cold-adapted species have been able to survive unusually warm periods in the last ca 10 000 years. We show that the rare climates that occur in current centres of species rarity will shrink disproportionately under future climate change, potentially leading to high vulnerability for many of the species they contain.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-08-2012
DOI: 10.1111/DDI.12000
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 14-01-2009
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 16-01-2013
DOI: 10.1111/DDI.12025
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 22-12-2011
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2012
Publisher: EMBO
Date: 07-2008
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-10-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-019-12655-Y
Abstract: Both community composition changes due to species redistribution and within-species size shifts may alter body-size structures under climate warming. Here we assess the relative contribution of these processes in community-level body-size changes in tropical moth assemblages that moved uphill during a period of warming. Based on resurvey data for seven assemblages of geometrid moths ( in iduals) on Mt. Kinabalu, Borneo, in 1965 and 2007, we show significant wing-length reduction (mean shrinkage of 1.3% per species). Range shifts explain most size restructuring, due to uphill shifts of relatively small species, especially at high elevations. Overall, mean forewing length shrank by ca. 5%, much of which is accounted for by species range boundary shifts (3.9%), followed by within-boundary distribution changes (0.5%), and within-species size shrinkage (0.6%). We conclude that the effects of range shifting predominate, but considering species physiological responses is also important for understanding community size reorganization under climate warming.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-2004
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE02719
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 29-05-2023
Abstract: Estimating bio ersity change across the planet in the context of widespread human modification is a critical challenge. Here, we review how bio ersity has changed in recent decades across scales and taxonomic groups, focusing on four ersity metrics: species richness, temporal turnover, spatial beta- ersity and abundance. At local scales, change across all metrics includes many ex les of both increases and declines and tends to be centred around zero, but with higher prevalence of declining trends in beta- ersity (increasing similarity in composition across space or biotic homogenization) and abundance. The exception to this pattern is temporal turnover, with changes in species composition through time observed in most local assemblages. Less is known about change at regional scales, although several studies suggest that increases in richness are more prevalent than declines. Change at the global scale is the hardest to estimate accurately, but most studies suggest extinction rates are probably outpacing speciation rates, although both are elevated. Recognizing this variability is essential to accurately portray how bio ersity change is unfolding, and highlights how much remains unknown about the magnitude and direction of multiple bio ersity metrics at different scales. Reducing these blind spots is essential to allow appropriate management actions to be deployed. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Detecting and attributing the causes of bio ersity change: needs, gaps and solutions’.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-2009
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 16-04-2009
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2010
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2017
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Chris Thomas.