ORCID Profile
0000-0002-9220-2739
Current Organisations
Universidad San Francisco de Quito
,
University of Oxford
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Publications
Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 02-11-2021
DOI: 10.1101/2021.11.01.21265731
Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use in idual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma’s spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of hospitalised patients died over sustained time periods. We show that extensive fluctuations in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed prior to Gamma’s detection, and were largely transient after Gamma’s detection, subsiding with hospital demand. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we find that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil’s COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We project that approximately half of Brazil’s COVID-19 deaths in hospitals could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization, and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries. The following manuscript has appeared as ‘Report 46 - Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals’ at spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/91875 . COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity.
Author Correction: Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-2022
Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-05-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41591-022-01807-1
Abstract: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Gamma variant of concern has spread rapidly across Brazil since late 2020, causing substantial infection and death waves. Here we used in idual-level patient records after hospitalization with suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between 20 January 2020 and 26 July 2021 to document temporary, sweeping shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed the spread of Gamma across 14 state capitals, during which typically more than half of hospitalized patients aged 70 years and older died. We show that such extensive shocks in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed before the detection of Gamma. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we found that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil’s COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates were primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We estimate that approximately half of the COVID-19 deaths in hospitals in the 14 cities could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population-wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
Related Organisations
The University Of Edinburgh
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
University Of Oxford
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Related Funding Activities
No related grants have been discovered for Bernardo Gutierrez.