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0000-0001-6479-9657
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Wageningen University & Research
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Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 21-10-2022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2019
Publisher: Resilience Alliance, Inc.
Date: 2018
Publisher: American Chemical Society (ACS)
Date: 11-04-2017
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 10-2013
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-17-3707-2013
Abstract: Abstract. Land evapotranspiration (ET) estimates are available from several global data sets. Here, monthly global land ET synthesis products, merged from these in idual data sets over the time periods 1989–1995 (7 yr) and 1989–2005 (17 yr), are presented. The merged synthesis products over the shorter period are based on a total of 40 distinct data sets while those over the longer period are based on a total of 14 data sets. In the in idual data sets, ET is derived from satellite and/or in situ observations (diagnostic data sets) or calculated via land-surface models (LSMs) driven with observations-based forcing or output from atmospheric reanalyses. Statistics for four merged synthesis products are provided, one including all data sets and three including only data sets from one category each (diagnostic, LSMs, and reanalyses). The multi-annual variations of ET in the merged synthesis products display realistic responses. They are also consistent with previous findings of a global increase in ET between 1989 and 1997 (0.13 mm yr−2 in our merged product) followed by a significant decrease in this trend (−0.18 mm yr−2), although these trends are relatively small compared to the uncertainty of absolute ET values. The global mean ET from the merged synthesis products (based on all data sets) is 493 mm yr−1 (1.35 mm d−1) for both the 1989–1995 and 1989–2005 products, which is relatively low compared to previously published estimates. We estimate global runoff (precipitation minus ET) to 263 mm yr−1 (34 406 km3 yr−1) for a total land area of 130 922 000 km2. Precipitation, being an important driving factor and input to most simulated ET data sets, presents uncertainties between single data sets as large as those in the ET estimates. In order to reduce uncertainties in current ET products, improving the accuracy of the input variables, especially precipitation, as well as the parameterizations of ET, are crucial.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-06-2012
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1546
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2014
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-2005
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-2013
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2006
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-09-2017
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 11-2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 24-02-2018
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-03-2017
DOI: 10.1002/ECO.1624
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2015
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2009
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 29-07-2016
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-20-3027-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Climate change poses critical threats to water-related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals from earlier Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3)-based assessments, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the CMIP5 climate projections. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high-flow and low-flow conditions). In general, the Mekong's hydrological cycle intensifies under future climate change. The scenario's ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16 %, depending on location). Despite the overall increasing trend, the in idual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional changes. The scenario's ensemble, however, shows reduced uncertainties in climate projection and hydrological impacts compared to earlier CMIP3-based assessments. We further found that extremely high-flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risks in the basin. Climate-change-induced hydrological changes will have important implications for safety, economic development, and ecosystem dynamics and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and water management.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 11-04-2018
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.5539
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 11-2018
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 16-12-2013
Abstract: Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-day total). Freshwater limitations in some heavily irrigated regions could necessitate reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal. Freshwater abundance in other regions could help ameliorate these losses, but substantial investment in infrastructure would be required.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2010
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-2004
DOI: 10.1111/J.0014-3820.2004.TB01621.X
Abstract: Leaf ecophysiological traits related to carbon gain and resource use are expected to be under strong selection in desert annuals. We used comparative and phenotypic selection approaches to investigate the importance of leaf ecophysiological traits for Helianthus anomalus, a diploid annual sunflower species of hybrid origin that is endemic to active desert dunes. Comparisons were made within and among five genotypic classes: H. anomalus, its ancestral parent species (H. annuus and H. petiolaris), and two backcrossed populations of the parental species (designated BC2ann and BC2pet) representing putative ancestors of H. anomalus. Seedlings were transplanted into H. anomalus habitat at Little Sahara Dunes, Utah, and followed through a summer growing season for leaf ecophysiological traits, phenology, and fitness estimated as vegetative biomass. Helianthus anomalus had a unique combination of traits when compared to its ancestral parent species, suggesting that lower leaf nitrogen and greater leaf succulence might be adaptive. However, selection on leaf traits in H. anomalus favored larger leaf area and greater nitrogen, which was not consistent with the extreme traits of H. anomalus relative to its ancestral parents. Also contrary to expectation, current selection on the leaf traits in the backcross populations was not consistently similar to, or resulting in evolution toward, the current H. anomalus phenotype. Only the selection for greater leaf succulence in BC2ann and greater water-use efficiency in BC2pet would result in evolution toward the current H. anomalus phenotype. It was surprising that the action of phenotypic selection depended greatly on the genotypic class for these closely related sunflower hybrids grown in a common environment. We speculate that this may be due to either phenotypic correlations between measured and unmeasured but functionally related traits or due to the three genotypic classes experiencing the environment differently as a result of their differing morphology.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 2004
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 13-12-2007
DOI: 10.1007/S00442-006-0627-5
Abstract: Plant water-use efficiency (WUE) is expected to affect plant fitness and thus be under natural selection in arid habitats. Although many natural population studies have assessed plant WUE, only a few related WUE to fitness. The further determination of whether selection on WUE is direct or indirect through functionally related traits has yielded no consistent results. For natural populations of two desert annual sunflowers, Helianthus anomalus and H. deserticola, we used phenotypic selection analysis with vegetative biomass as the proxy for fitness to test (1) whether there was direct and indirect selection on WUE (carbon isotope ratio) and related traits (leaf N, area, succulence) and (2) whether direct selection was consistent with hypothesized drought/dehydration escape and avoidance strategies. There was direct selection for lower WUE in mesic and dry H. anomalus populations, consistent with dehydration escape, even though it is the longer lived of the two species. For mesic H. anomalus, direct selection favored lower WUE and higher N, suggesting that plants may be "wasting water" to increase N delivery via the transpiration stream. For the shorter lived H. deserticola in the direr habitat, there was indirect selection for lower WUE, inconsistent with drought escape. There was also direct selection for higher leaf N, succulence and leaf size. There was no direct selection for higher WUE consistent with dehydration avoidance in either species. Thus, in these natural populations of two desert dune species higher fitness was associated with some combination direct and indirect selection for lower WUE, higher leaf N and larger leaf size. Our understanding of the adaptive value of plant ecophysiological traits will benefit from further consideration of related traits such as leaf nitrogen and more tests in natural populations.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-02-2008
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 24-03-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2019
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 19-03-2010
DOI: 10.1111/J.1420-9101.2010.01950.X
Abstract: Hybrid speciation is thought to be facilitated by escape of early generation hybrids into new habitats, subsequent environmental selection and adaptation. Here, we ask whether two homoploid hybrid plant species (Helianthus anomalus, H. deserticola) erged sufficiently from their ancestral parent species (H. annuus, H. petiolaris) during hybrid speciation so that they are more fit than the parent species in hybrid species habitats. Hybrid and parental species were reciprocally transplanted into hybrid and parental habitats. Helianthus anomalus was more fit than parental species in the H. anomalus actively moving desert dune habitat. The abilities to tolerate burial and excavation and to obtain nutrients appear to be important for success in the H. anomalus habitat. In contrast, H. deserticola failed to outperform the parental species in the H. deserticola stabilized desert dune habitat, and several possible explanations are discussed. The home site advantage of H. anomalus is consistent with environmental selection having been a mechanism for adaptive ergence and hybrid speciation and supports the use of H. anomalus as a valuable system for further assessment of environmental selection and adaptive traits.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-12-2003
DOI: 10.1007/S00442-002-1119-X
Abstract: Recent studies suggest that savanna trees in semi-arid areas can increase understorey plant production. We hypothesized that one of the mechanisms that explains the facilitation between trees and grasses in East African savannas is hydraulic lift (HL). HL in large Acacia tortilis trees was studied during the first 3 months of the dry season during a relatively wet year (1998) and a very dry year (2000). In 1998, we found distinct diel fluctuation in soil water potential (psi(s)), with increasing values during the night and decreasing again the following day. These fluctuations in psi(s )are consistent with other observations of HL and in A. tortilis were found up to 10 m from the tree. In 2000, during a severe drought, psi(s) measurements indicated that HL was largely absent. The finding that HL occurred in wetter years and not in drier years was supported by data obtained on the delta(18)O values in soil, rain and groundwater. The delta(18)O of water extracted from the xylem water of grasses indicated that when they grew near trees they had values similar to those of groundwater. This could be because they either (1) use water from deeper soil layers or (2) use hydraulically lifted water provided by the tree this was not seen in the same grass species growing outside tree canopies. While our data indicate that HL indeed occurs under Acacia trees, it is also true that psi(s) was consistently lower under trees when compared to outside tree canopies. We believe that this is because tree-grass mixtures take up more water from the upper soil layers than is exuded by the tree each night. This limits the beneficial effect of HL for understorey grasses and suggests that in savannas both facilitation via HL and competition are active processes. The importance of each process may depend upon how wet or dry that particular site or year is.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2015
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-2011
Abstract: Six land surface models and five global hydrological models participate in a model intercomparison project [Water Model Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP)], which for the first time compares simulation results of these different classes of models in a consistent way. In this paper, the simulation setup is described and aspects of the multimodel global terrestrial water balance are presented. All models were run at 0.5° spatial resolution for the global land areas for a 15-yr period (1985–99) using a newly developed global meteorological dataset. Simulated global terrestrial evapotranspiration, excluding Greenland and Antarctica, ranges from 415 to 586 mm yr−1 (from 60 000 to 85 000 km3 yr−1), and simulated runoff ranges from 290 to 457 mm yr−1 (from 42 000 to 66 000 km3 yr−1). Both the mean and median runoff fractions for the land surface models are lower than those of the global hydrological models, although the range is wider. Significant simulation differences between land surface and global hydrological models are found to be caused by the snow scheme employed. The physically based energy balance approach used by land surface models generally results in lower snow water equivalent values than the conceptual degree-day approach used by global hydrological models. Some differences in simulated runoff and evapotranspiration are explained by model parameterizations, although the processes included and parameterizations used are not distinct to either land surface models or global hydrological models. The results show that differences between models are a major source of uncertainty. Climate change impact studies thus need to use not only multiple climate models but also some other measure of uncertainty (e.g., multiple impact models).
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-09-2009
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-10-2013
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 13-05-2019
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-09-2016
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 15-11-2021
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 16-03-2018
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-22-1875-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Recent flood dynamics of the Mekong Delta have raised concerns about an increased flood risk downstream in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Accelerated high dike building on the floodplains of the upper delta to allow triple cropping of rice has been linked to higher river water levels in the downstream city of Can Tho. This paper assesses the hydraulic impacts of upstream dike construction on the flood hazard downstream in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. We combined the existing one-dimensional (1-D) Mekong Delta hydrodynamic model with a quasi-two-dimensional (2-D) approach. First we calibrated and validated the model using flood data from 2011 and 2013. We then applied the model to explore the downstream water dynamics under various scenarios of high dike construction in An Giang Province and the Long Xuyen Quadrangle. Calculations of water balances allowed us to trace the propagation and distribution of flood volumes over the delta under the different scenarios. Model results indicate that extensive construction of high dikes on the upstream floodplains has had limited effect on peak river water levels downstream in Can Tho. Instead, the model shows that the impacts of dike construction, in terms of peak river water levels, are concentrated and lified in the upstream reaches of the delta. According to our water balance analysis, river water levels in Can Tho have remained relatively stable, as greater volumes of floodwater have been erted away from the Long Xuyen Quadrangle than the retention volume lost due to dike construction. Our findings expand on previous work on the impacts of water control infrastructure on flood risk and floodwater regimes across the delta.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2008
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2010
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-02-2006
DOI: 10.1007/S00442-006-0367-6
Abstract: Recent research has shown that many C3 plant species have significant stomatal opening and transpire water at night even in desert habitats. Day-time stomatal regulation is expected to maximize carbon gain and prevent runaway cavitation, but little is known about the effect of soil resource availability on night-time stomatal conductance (g) and transpiration (E). Water (low and high) and nutrients (low and high) were applied factorially during the growing season to naturally occurring seedlings of the annual Helianthus anomalus. Plant height and biomass were greatest in the treatment where both water and nutrients were added, confirming resource limitations in this habitat. Plants from all treatments showed significant night-time g (approximately 0.07 mol m(-2) s(-1)) and E (approximately 1.5 mol m(-2) s(-1)). In July, water and nutrient additions had few effects on day- or night-time gas exchange. In August, however, plants in the nutrient addition treatments had lower day-time photosynthesis, g and E, paralleled by lower night-time g and E. Lower predawn water potentials and higher integrated photosynthetic water-use efficiency suggests that the nutrient addition indirectly induced a mild water stress. Thus, soil resources can affect night-time g and E in a manner parallel to day-time, although additional factors may also be involved.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 17-07-2009
DOI: 10.1111/J.1469-8137.2009.02916.X
Abstract: Habitats that differ in soil resource availability are expected to differ for selection on resource-related plant traits. Here, we examined spatial and temporal variation in phenotypic selection on leaf ecophysiological traits for 10 Helianthus populations, including two species of hybrid origin, Helianthus anomalus and Helianthus deserticola, and artificial hybrids of their ancestral parents. Leaf traits assessed were leaf size, succulence, nitrogen (N) concentration and water-use efficiency (WUE). Biomass and leaf traits of artificial hybrids indicate that the actively moving dune habitat of H. anomalus was more growth limiting, with lower N availability but higher relative water availability than the stabilized dune habitat of H. deserticola. Habitats differed for direct selection on leaf N and WUE, but not size or succulence, for the artificial hybrids. However, within the H. anomalus habitat, direct selection on WUE also differed among populations. Across years, direct selection on leaf traits did not differ. Leaf N was the only trait for which direct selection differed between habitats but not within the H. anomalus habitat, suggesting that nutrient limitation is an important selective force driving adaptation of H. anomalus to the active dune habitat.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 21-11-2012
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-16-4303-2012
Abstract: Abstract. Realistic estimates of daily streamflow and water temperature are required for effective management of water resources (e.g. for electricity and drinking water production) and freshwater ecosystems. Although hydrological and process-based water temperature modelling approaches have been successfully applied to small catchments and short time periods, much less work has been done at large spatial and temporal scales. We present a physically based modelling framework for daily river discharge and water temperature simulations applicable to large river systems on a global scale. Model performance was tested globally at 1/2 × 1/2° spatial resolution and a daily time step for the period 1971–2000. We made specific evaluations on large river basins situated in different hydro-climatic zones and characterized by different anthropogenic impacts. Effects of anthropogenic heat discharges on simulated water temperatures were incorporated by using global gridded thermoelectric water use datasets and representing thermal discharges as point sources into the heat advection equation. This resulted in a significant increase in the quality of the water temperature simulations for thermally polluted basins (Rhine, Meuse, Danube and Mississippi). Due to large reservoirs in the Columbia which affect streamflow and thermal regimes, a reservoir routing model was used. This resulted in a significant improvement in the performance of the river discharge and water temperature modelling. Overall, realistic estimates were obtained at daily time step for both river discharge (median normalized BIAS = 0.3 normalized RMSE = 1.2 r = 0.76) and water temperature (median BIAS = −0.3 °C RMSE = 2.8 °C r = 0.91) for the entire validation period, with similar performance during warm, dry periods. Simulated water temperatures are sensitive to headwater temperature, depending on resolution and flow velocity. A high sensitivity of water temperature to river discharge (thermal capacity) was found during warm, dry conditions. The modelling approach has potential to be used for risk analyses and studying impacts of climate change and other anthropogenic effects (e.g. thermal pollution, dams and reservoir regulation) on large rivers.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2010WR009198
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2015
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 03-12-2019
Abstract: Farmers in sub-Saharan Africa face many difficulties when making farming decisions due to unexpected changes in weather and climate. Access to hydroclimatic information can potentially assist farmers to adapt. This study explores the extent to which seasonal climate forecasts can meet hydroclimatic information needs of rice farmers in northern Ghana. First, 62 rice farmers across 12 communities were interviewed about their information needs. Results showed that importance of hydroclimatic information depends on the frequency of use and farming type (rain-fed, irrigated, or both). Generally, farmers perceived rainfall distribution, dam water level, and temperature as very important information, followed by total rainfall amount and onset ranked as important. These findings informed our skills assessment of rainfall (Prcp), minimum temperature (Tmin), and maximum temperature (Tmax) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-S4) and at lead times of 0 to 2 months. Forecast bias, correlation, and skills for all variables vary with season and location but are generally unsystematic and relatively constant with forecast lead time. Making it possible to meet farmers’ needs at their most preferred lead time of 1 month before the farming season. ECMWF-S4 exhibited skill in Prcp, Tmin, and Tmax in northern Ghana except for a few grid cells in MAM for Prcp and SON for Tmin and Tmax. Tmin and Tmax forecasts were more skillful than Prcp. We conclude that the participatory coproduction approach used in this study provides better insight for understanding demand-driven climate information services and that the ECMWF-S4 seasonal forecast system has the potential to provide actionable hydroclimatic information that may support farmers’ decisions.
Publisher: IWA Publishing
Date: 27-02-2019
DOI: 10.2166/WP.2019.164
Abstract: The 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty was an important breakthrough in solving disputes over sharing Ganges water between India and Bangladesh. This study evaluates cooperation reflected in the Treaty by performing a quantitative analysis on available water sharing data. The study recognized that inaccurate projection of future flow and the obligation of allocating guaranteed 991 m3/s flows perpetuate the ongoing water sharing conflicts. The provision of guaranteed minimal flow alternately to India and Bangladesh during critical periods leads to frequent occurrences of low-flow events. Results indicated that the Treaty underestimated the impact of climate variability and possibly increasing upstream water abstraction. Statistical analysis of the post-Treaty data (1997–2016) also indicated that 65% of the time Bangladesh did not receive its guaranteed share during critical dry periods with high water demand. It is advised to project the reliable water availability using a combination of modelling and improved observation of river flows. In addition, the condition of minimum guaranteed share should be removed to reduce the frequency of low-flow events in future. Although our analyses show a number of weaknesses, the Treaty could still enhance the future regional cooperation if some adjustments are made to the current terms and conditions.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-1997
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-05-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2012
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 04-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2017
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2017.06.265
Abstract: Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2010
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 27-11-2015
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 11-12-2014
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-18-5041-2014
Abstract: Abstract. As the water requirement for food production and other human needs grows, quantification of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) is necessary to assess the amount of water needed to sustain freshwater ecosystems. EFRs are the result of the quantification of water necessary to sustain the riverine ecosystem, which is calculated from the mean of an environmental flow (EF) method. In this study, five EF methods for calculating EFRs were compared with 11 case studies of locally assessed EFRs. We used three existing methods (Smakhtin, Tennant, and Tessmann) and two newly developed methods (the variable monthly flow method (VMF) and the Q90_Q50 method). All methods were compared globally and validated at local scales while mimicking the natural flow regime. The VMF and the Tessmann methods use algorithms to classify the flow regime into high, intermediate, and low-flow months and they take into account intra-annual variability by allocating EFRs with a percentage of mean monthly flow (MMF). The Q90_Q50 method allocates annual flow quantiles (Q90 and Q50) depending on the flow season. The results showed that, on average, 37% of annual discharge was required to sustain environmental flow requirement. More water is needed for environmental flows during low-flow periods (46–71% of average low-flows) compared to high-flow periods (17–45% of average high-flows). Environmental flow requirements estimates from the Tennant, Q90_Q50, and Smakhtin methods were higher than the locally calculated EFRs for river systems with relatively stable flows and were lower than the locally calculated EFRs for rivers with variable flows. The VMF and Tessmann methods showed the highest correlation with the locally calculated EFRs (R2=0.91). The main difference between the Tessmann and VMF methods is that the Tessmann method allocates all water to EFRs in low-flow periods while the VMF method allocates 60% of the flow in low-flow periods. Thus, other water sectors such as irrigation can withdraw up to 40% of the flow during the low-flow season and freshwater ecosystems can still be kept in reasonable ecological condition. The global applicability of the five methods was tested using the global vegetation and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed land (LPJmL) hydrological model. The calculated global annual EFRs for fair ecological conditions represent between 25 and 46% of mean annual flow (MAF). Variable flow regimes, such as the Nile, have lower EFRs (ranging from 12 to 48% of MAF) than stable tropical regimes such as the Amazon (which has EFRs ranging from 30 to 67% of MAF).
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2013
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2013.05.092
Abstract: The Indian subcontinent faces a population increase from 1.6 billion in 2000 towards 2 billion around 2050. Therefore, expansion of agricultural area combined with increases in productivity will be necessary to produce the food needed in the future. However, with pressure on water resources already being high, and potential effects of climate change still uncertain, the question rises whether there will be enough water resources available to sustain this production. The objective of this study is to make a spatially explicit quantitative analysis of water requirements and availability for current and future food production in five South Asian basins (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Godavari and Krishna), in the absence or presence of two different adaptation strategies: an overall improvement in irrigation efficiency, and an increase of reservoir storage capacity. The analysis is performed by using the coupled hydrology and crop production model LPJmL. It is found that the Godavari and Krishna basins will benefit most from an increased storage capacity, whereas in the Ganges and the Indus water scarcity mainly takes place in areas where this additional storage would not provide additional utility. Increasing the irrigation efficiency will be beneficial in all basins, but most in the Indus and Ganges, as it decreases the pressure on groundwater resources and decreases the fraction of food production that would become at risk because of water shortage. A combination of both options seems to be the best strategy in all basins. The large-scale model used in this study is suitable to identify hotspot areas and support the first step in the policy process, but the final design and implementation of adaptation options requires supporting studies at finer scales.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 05-2021
Abstract: In order to achieve worldwide food security, there is a focus on sustainable intensification of crop production. This requires sustainable irrigation water use for irrigated croplands, as irrigation withdrawals are already resulting in groundwater exploitation and unmet ecosystem water requirements. Our study aims to quantify attainable wheat, maize, rice and soybean production on currently irrigated cropland under sustainable water use. Attainable production accounts for increases in nutrient application, while limiting irrigation withdrawals to renewable water availability and without compromising river ecosystem water requirements. Attainable production was quantified using a newly developed two-way coupled hydrological model and crop model. This model framework could comprehensively simulate biophysical processes related to water availability and crop growth under water and nutrient limitations. Our results indicate worldwide crop nitrogen uptake should increase by 20%, to achieve production gap closure. However, worldwide irrigation withdrawals should decrease by more than a third in order to ensure sustainable water use. Under these constraints, a total (all crops) production decrease of 5% was estimated, compared to currently achievable production. Moreover, achievable irrigated crop production in the extensively irrigated croplands of northeastern China, Pakistan and northwestern India would be reduced by up to a third. On the other hand, increases in achievable irrigated crop production may be possible in regions such as southern America, eastern Europe and central Africa. However, in these regions currently only a small fraction of crops is irrigated. Our results imply that intensification on currently irrigated croplands is at odds with sustainable water management, and further locally-oriented research is needed to assess suitable water management options and solutions.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2011
Abstract: Water-related impacts are among the most important consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Changes in the global water cycle will also impact the carbon and nutrient cycles and vegetation patterns. There is already some evidence of increasing severity of floods and droughts and increasing water scarcity linked to increasing greenhouse gases. So far, however, the most important impacts on water resources are the direct interventions by humans, such as dams, water extractions, and river channel modifications. The Water and Global Change (WATCH) project is a major international initiative to bring together climate and water scientists to better understand the current and future water cycle. This paper summarizes the underlying motivation for the WATCH project and the major results from a series of papers published or soon to be published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology WATCH special collection. At its core is the Water Model Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP), which brings together a wide range of global hydrological and land surface models run with consistent driving data. It is clear that we still have considerable uncertainties in the future climate drivers and in how the river systems will respond to these changes. There is a grand challenge to the hydrological and climate communities to both reduce these uncertainties and communicate them to a wider society.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-04-2018
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-05-2013
Abstract: Abstract. Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological models (eight) were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2009WR008929
Publisher: CABI Publishing
Date: 06-2021
Abstract: Indigenous people are often considered victims of climate change impact rather than agents of adaptation. Emerging studies in Africa have shifted the attention to indigenous knowledge (IK) to support the development of effective climate change adaptation strategies. This study adopted a systematic literature review methodology to analyse the following: (i) characterization of IK, (ii) potential of IK for knowledge co-production, (iii) IK for climate change causes and impact identification, (iv) IK for formulating and implementing climate change interventions, and (v) documentation and conservation of IK as a resource for climate change adaptation. Results show that there is no consensus on the definition of IK. However, certain identical elements in the available definitions are relevant for contextualization. IK has been useful in the formulation of different climate change adaptation strategies: management practices, early warning, and risk and disaster management. IK has the potential for knowledge co-production relevant for developing robust adaptation measures. Weather and climate services remain a critical area where IK and scientific knowledge (SK) are integrated to enhance forecast reliability and acceptability for local communities. IK is disappearing because of modernization and rural-urban migration, changing landscape and shifting religious beliefs. We suggest the need for more research into the complexity of the IK, proper documentation and storage of IK, and developing effective approaches to integrate IK with SK such that it is well received among researchers and policymakers. While doing this, it is important to maintain the unique features that distinguish IK from other forms of knowledge.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2013
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Date: 08-2004
DOI: 10.1086/422223
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2019
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2018.08.160
Abstract: The river flow regime and water resources are highly important for economic growths, flood security, and ecosystem dynamics in the Mekong basin - an important transboundary river basin in South East Asia. The river flow, although remains relatively unregulated, is expected to be increasingly perturbed by climate change and rapidly accelerating socioeconomic developments. Current understanding about hydrological changes under the combined impacts of these drivers, however, remains limited. This study presents projected hydrological changes caused by multiple drivers, namely climate change, large-scale hydropower developments, and irrigated land expansions by 2050s. We found that the future flow regime is highly susceptible to all considered drivers, shown by substantial changes in both annual and seasonal flow distribution. While hydropower developments exhibit limited impacts on annual total flows, climate change and irrigation expansions cause changes of +15% and -3% in annual flows, respectively. However, hydropower developments show the largest seasonal impacts characterized by higher dry season flows (up to +70%) and lower wet season flows (-15%). These strong seasonal impacts tend to outplay those of the other drivers, resulting in the overall hydrological change pattern of strong increases of the dry season flow (up to +160%) flow reduction in the first half of the wet season (up to -25%) and slight flow increase in the second half of the wet season (up to 40%). Furthermore, the cumulative impacts of all drivers cause substantial flow reductions during the early wet season (up to -25% in July), posing challenges for crop production and saltwater intrusion in the downstream Mekong Delta. Substantial flow changes and their consequences require careful considerations of future development activities, as well as timely adaptation to future changes.
Publisher: IWA Publishing
Date: 28-03-2022
DOI: 10.2166/WP.2022.235
Abstract: The current climate service creation practice misses clear provider–user collaborations, and this presents a challenge for the educational design of capacity-building programs. This study analyses the formation of educational principles in six training courses aimed at tailored climate services. The design principles are analyzed using the constructive alignment and three curriculum perspectives as analytical frameworks. Three main issues were identified: overambitious one-size-fits-all learning goals the role of a case study in overcoming the lack of knowledge and skills and ambiguity in assessments. These issues guided the implementation for improvements in the courses and need to be addressed in creation processes for user-tailored climate services in general by the wide community of climate service providers and users. Our findings reflect the tendency to insufficiently involve users in the creation of climate services and in capacity building more specifically. Although we use ex les in the water sector and link them to collaborative processes in water governance, our findings potentially have implications for other sectors where collaboration between users and providers is needed as well. It also highlights not only the usefulness of educational and pedagogical disciplines as a pillar of capacity building but also their active inclusion in the design and implementation of climate services.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2016
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2016.01.001
Abstract: Scarcity of in-situ observations coupled with high orographic influences has prevented a comprehensive assessment of precipitation distribution in the high-altitude catchments of Indus basin. Available data are generally fragmented and scattered with different organizations and mostly cover the valleys. Here, we combine most of the available station data with the indirect precipitation estimates at the accumulation zones of major glaciers to analyse altitudinal dependency of precipitation in the high-altitude Indus basin. The available observations signified the importance of orography in each sub-hydrological basin but could not infer an accurate distribution of precipitation with altitude. We used Kriging with External Drift (KED) interpolation scheme with elevation as a predictor to appraise spatiotemporal distribution of mean monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation for the period of 1998-2012. The KED-based annual precipitation estimates are verified by the corresponding basin-wide observed specific runoffs, which show good agreement. In contrast to earlier studies, our estimates reveal substantially higher precipitation in most of the sub-basins indicating two distinct rainfall maxima 1st along southern and lower most slopes of Chenab, Jhelum, Indus main and Swat basins, and 2nd around north-west corner of Shyok basin in the central Karakoram. The study demonstrated that the selected gridded precipitation products covering this region are prone to significant errors. In terms of quantitative estimates, ERA-Interim is relatively close to the observations followed by WFDEI and TRMM, while APHRODITE gives highly underestimated precipitation estimates in the study area. Basin-wide seasonal and annual correction factors introduced for each gridded dataset can be useful for lumped hydrological modelling studies, while the estimated precipitation distribution can serve as a basis for bias correction of any gridded precipitation products for the study area.
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Date: 03-2005
DOI: 10.1086/427201
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-02-2001
DOI: 10.2307/3237009
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-07-2017
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 02-02-2012
Abstract: Abstract. Due to biases in the output of climate models, a bias correction is often needed to make the output suitable for use in hydrological simulations. In most cases only the temperature and precipitation values are bias corrected. However, often there are also biases in other variables such as radiation, humidity and wind speed. In this study we tested to what extent it is also needed to bias correct these variables. Responses to radiation, humidity and wind estimates from two climate models for four large-scale hydrological models are analysed. For the period 1971–2000 these hydrological simulations are compared to simulations using meteorological data based on observations and reanalysis i.e. the baseline simulation. In both forcing datasets originating from climate models precipitation and temperature are bias corrected to the baseline forcing dataset. Hence, it is only effects of radiation, humidity and wind estimates that are tested here. The direct use of climate model outputs result in substantial different evapotranspiration and runoff estimates, when compared to the baseline simulations. A simple bias correction method is implemented and tested by rerunning the hydrological models using bias corrected radiation, humidity and wind values. The results indicate that bias correction can successfully be used to match the baseline simulations. Finally, historical (1971–2000) and future (2071–2100) model simulations resulting from using bias corrected forcings are compared to the results using non-bias corrected forcings. The relative changes in simulated evapotranspiration and runoff are relatively similar for the bias corrected and non bias corrected hydrological projections, although the absolute evapotranspiration and runoff numbers are often very different. The simulated relative and absolute differences when using bias corrected and non bias corrected climate model radiation, humidity and wind values are, however, smaller than literature reported differences resulting from using bias corrected and non bias corrected climate model precipitation and temperature values.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2007
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2016
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 29-01-2008
DOI: 10.3170/2008-8-18435
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-06-2004
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2022
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 16-12-2014
Abstract: Humans alter the water cycle by constructing dams and through water withdrawals. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, model analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented. The results indicate that the impact of man-made reservoirs and water withdrawals on the long-term global terrestrial water balance is small. However, in some river basins, impacts of human interventions are significant. In parts of Asia and the United States, the effects of human interventions exceed the impacts expected for moderate levels of global warming. This study also identifies areas where irrigation water is currently scarce, and where increases in irrigation water scarcity are projected.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 21-09-2020
Abstract: Hydroclimatic information services are vital for sustainable agricultural practices in deltas. They advance adaptation practices of farmers that lead to better economic benefit through increased yields, reduced production costs, and minimized crop damage. This research explores the hydroclimatic information needs of farmers by addressing (1) what kind of information is needed by the periurban delta farmers, and (2) whether information needs have any temporal dimension that changes with time following capacity building during coproduction of information services. Results reveal that the attributes of weather and water-related forecasts most affecting the farmers are rainfall, temperature, water, and soil salinity, along with extreme events such as cyclone and storm surges. The majority of the male farmers prefer one- to two-week lead-time forecasts for strategic and tactical decision-making while female farmers prefer short-time forecasts with one-day to a week lead time that suggests the difference of purpose of the forecasts between male and female farmers. Contrarily, there is little preference for monthly, seasonal, and real-time forecasts. Information communication through a smartphone app is preferred mostly because of its easy accessibility and visualization. Farmers foresee that capacity building on acquiring hydroclimatic information is vital for agricultural decision-making. We conclude that a demand-driven coproduction of a hydroclimatic information service created through iterative interaction with and for farmers will enable the farmers to understand their information needs more explicitly.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2018
DOI: 10.1016/J.JENVMAN.2018.03.116
Abstract: Large areas of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta floodplains (VMDF) are protected by high dikes to facilitate three rice crops per year. While this has increased rice production, there is evidence that triple rice systems have negative long-term effects, both environmental and economic. Double rice cropping, or other alternatives, may be more advantageous. We analyzed the costs and benefits of intensive rice systems over time and compared these with alternatives farming systems, based on data collected via field surveys and interviews with farmers in two provinces in the VMDF. Results show that farmers in areas with dikes high enough for triple rice production incurred rising production costs over time. Production costs were 58%-91% higher in high-dike, triple crop areas, than in low-dike double rice crop areas. Higher production costs are mainly the result of increased fertilizer and pesticide use. Profitability of triple rice farming systems was initially 57% more compared to double crop systems. After about 15 years, however, triple rice farmers earned only 6% more than double crop counterparts. Our results indicate that alternative farming systems, such as rice combined with vegetables, fisheries or other flood-based livelihood, could offer greater benefits than intensive rice monocultures. Importantly, these higher benefits can be obtained without the environmental costs and impact currently endured across the delta with triple rice cultivation in high dikes.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2016
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2016.03.190
Abstract: Iran Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. By adapting a method of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) for hypersaline lakes, we estimated annually 3.7·10(9)m(3) water is needed to preserve Urmia Lake. Then, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the EFRs by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake.
No related grants have been discovered for FULCO LUDWIG.