ORCID Profile
0000-0002-2627-1947
Current Organisation
Météo France Toulouse
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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-07-2020
Abstract: Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections of these drivers of environmental change over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Projections are compared to those from the previous generation (CMIP5) forced under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). A total of 10 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 models are used in the two multi-model ensembles. Under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the multi-model global mean change (2080–2099 mean values relative to 1870–1899) ± the inter-model SD in sea surface temperature, surface pH, subsurface (100–600 m) oxygen concentration, euphotic (0–100 m) nitrate concentration, and depth-integrated primary production is +3.47±0.78 ∘C, -0.44±0.005, -13.27±5.28, -1.06±0.45 mmol m−3 and -2.99±9.11 %, respectively. Under the low-emission, high-mitigation scenario SSP1-2.6, the corresponding global changes are +1.42±0.32 ∘C, -0.16±0.002, -6.36±2.92, -0.52±0.23 mmol m−3, and -0.56±4.12 %. Projected exposure of the marine ecosystem to these drivers of ocean change depends largely on the extent of future emissions, consistent with previous studies. The ESMs in CMIP6 generally project greater warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than those from CMIP5 under comparable radiative forcing. The increased projected ocean warming results from a general increase in the climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to those of CMIP5. This enhanced warming increases upper-ocean stratification in CMIP6 projections, which contributes to greater reductions in upper-ocean nitrate and subsurface oxygen ventilation. The greater surface acidification in CMIP6 is primarily a consequence of the SSPs having higher associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than their RCP analogues for the same radiative forcing. We find no consistent reduction in inter-model uncertainties, and even an increase in net primary production inter-model uncertainties in CMIP6, as compared to CMIP5.
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 09-01-2023
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-2230847/V1
Abstract: Anthropogenic warming of the oceans and associated deoxygenation are altering marine ecosystems. Current knowledge suggests that these changes might be reversible in the centennial timescale in the ocean surface and irreversible at deeper depth if global warming were to decline. However, knowledge on the persistence of their combined effects on marine ecosystems remains limited. Here we explore to what extent global warming will drive alterations on marine habitats by following the evolution of a metabolic index that captures the ecophysiological response of marine organisms to both changes in temperature and oxygen, through an idealised r -up r -down atmospheric CO 2 concentration experiment. Using a multi-model approach, we find that changes in ocean temperature and oxygen drives a centuries-long irreversible loss of ~4% in the habitable volume of the upper 1000 m of the world ocean. These results suggest the combined effect of warming and deoxygenation will diminish the capability of the ocean to hold life far after recovering from a temperature overshoot.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2022MS003563
Abstract: Accurately predicting future ocean acidification (OA) conditions is crucial for advancing OA research at regional and global scales, and guiding society's mitigation and adaptation efforts. This study presents a new model‐data fusion product covering 10 global surface OA indicators based on 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), along with three recent observational ocean carbon data products. The indicators include fugacity of carbon dioxide, pH on total scale, total hydrogen ion content, free hydrogen ion content, carbonate ion content, aragonite saturation state, calcite saturation state, Revelle Factor, total dissolved inorganic carbon content, and total alkalinity content. The evolution of these OA indicators is presented on a global surface ocean 1° × 1° grid as decadal averages every 10 years from preindustrial conditions (1750), through historical conditions (1850–2010), and to five future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2020–2100): SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5. These OA trajectories represent an improvement over previous OA data products with respect to data quantity, spatial and temporal coverage, ersity of the underlying data and model simulations, and the provided SSPs. The generated data product offers a state‐of‐the‐art research and management tool for the 21st century under the combined stressors of global climate change and ocean acidification. The gridded data product is available in NetCDF at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information: ata/oceans/ncei/ocads/metadata/0259391.html , and global maps of these indicators are available in jpeg at: ccess/ocean-carbon-acidification-data-system/synthesis/surface-oa-indicators.html .
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-10-2023
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Yeray Santana-Falcón.