ORCID Profile
0000-0002-9117-0616
Current Organisation
Northumbria University
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Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF002751
Abstract: Sea level rise (SLR) is a long‐lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process‐based models. However, risk‐averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high‐end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high‐end scenarios. High‐end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1‐2.6) relative to pre‐industrial values our high‐end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5‐8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long‐term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi‐meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high‐end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high‐end SLR.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-03-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL094566
Abstract: Rapid ice loss is occurring in the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. This ice loss is assumed to be a long‐term response to oceanographic forcing, but ocean conditions in the Amundsen Sea are unknown prior to 1994. Here we present a modeling study of Amundsen Sea conditions from 1920 to 2013, using an ensemble of ice‐ocean simulations forced by climate model experiments. We find that during the early twentieth century, the Amundsen Sea likely experienced more sustained cool periods than at present. Warm periods become more dominant over the simulations (mean trend 0.33°C/century) causing an increase in ice shelf melting. The warming is likely driven by an eastward wind trend over the continental shelf break that is partly anthropogenically forced. Our simulations suggest that the Amundsen Sea responded to historical greenhouse gas forcing, and that future changes in emissions are also likely to affect the region.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2010
DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044921
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 31-03-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-021-22259-0
Abstract: A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great uncertainty as to how easily it could occur. Here, we show, using a coupled ice sheet-ocean model forced by climate change scenarios, that any increase in ice shelf melting is likely to be preceded by an extended period of reduced melting. Climate change weakens the circulation beneath the ice shelf, leading to colder water and reduced melting. Warm water begins to intrude into the cavity when global mean surface temperatures rise by approximately 7 °C above pre-industrial, which is unlikely to occur this century. However, this result should not be considered evidence that the region is unconditionally stable. Unless global temperatures plateau, increased melting will eventually prevail.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 22-12-2010
Abstract: Abstract. Sub-ice shelf circulation and freezing/melting rates in ocean general circulation models depend critically on an accurate and consistent representation of cavity geometry. Existing global or pan-Antarctic topography data sets have turned out to contain various inconsistencies and inaccuracies. The goal of this work is to compile independent regional surveys and maps into a global data set. We use the S-2004 global 1-min bathymetry as the backbone and add an improved version of the BEDMAP topography (ALBMAP bedrock topography) for an area that roughly coincides with the Antarctic continental shelf. The position of the merging line is in idually chosen in different sectors in order to capture the best of both data sets. High-resolution gridded data for ice shelf topography and cavity geometry of the Amery, Fimbul, Filchner-Ronne, Larsen C and George VI Ice Shelves, and for Pine Island Glacier are carefully merged into the ambient ice and ocean topographies. Multibeam survey data for bathymetry in the former Larsen B cavity and the southeastern Bellingshausen Sea have been obtained from the data centers of Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), gridded, and blended into the existing bathymetry map. The resulting global 1-min Refined Topography data set (RTopo-1) contains self-consistent maps for upper and lower ice surface heights, bedrock topography, and surface type (open ocean, grounded ice, floating ice, bare land surface). The data set is available in NetCDF format from the PANGAEA database at doi:10.1594 angaea.741917.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 18-04-2013
DOI: 10.1017/S0032247413000296
Abstract: We present an update of the ‘key points’ from the Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE) report that was published by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) in 2009. We summarise subsequent advances in knowledge concerning how the climates of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean have changed in the past, how they might change in the future, and examine the associated impacts on the marine and terrestrial biota. We also incorporate relevant material presented by SCAR to the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings, and make use of emerging results that will form part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 22-12-2022
Abstract: Abstract. Ocean-driven ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a significant contributor to sea-level rise. Recent ocean variability in the Amundsen Sea is controlled by near-surface winds. We combine palaeoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations to understand past and future influences on Amundsen Sea winds from anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability. The reconstructions show strong historical wind trends. External forcing from greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion drove zonally uniform westerly wind trends centred over the deep Southern Ocean. Internally generated trends resemble a South Pacific Rossby wave train and were highly influential over the Amundsen Sea continental shelf. There was strong interannual and interdecadal variability over the Amundsen Sea, with periods of anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 1940s and 1990s, when rapid ice-sheet loss was initiated. Similar anticyclonic anomalies probably occurred prior to the 20th century but without causing the present ice loss. This suggests that ice loss may have been triggered naturally in the 1940s but failed to recover subsequently due to the increasing importance of anthropogenic forcing from greenhouse gases (since the 1960s) and ozone depletion (since the 1980s). Future projections also feature strong wind trends. Emissions mitigation influences wind trends over the deep Southern Ocean but has less influence on winds over the Amundsen Sea shelf, where internal variability creates a large and irreducible uncertainty. This suggests that strong emissions mitigation is needed to minimise ice loss this century but that the uncontrollable future influence of internal climate variability could be equally important.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-02-2020
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 24-07-2019
Abstract: Open-ocean polynyas in the Weddell Sea of Antarctica are the product of deep convection, which transports Warm Deep Water (WDW) to the surface and melts sea ice or prevents its formation. These polynyas occur only rarely in the observational record but are a near-permanent feature of many climate and ocean simulations. A question not previously considered is the degree to which the Weddell polynya affects the nearby Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) cavity. Here we assess these effects using regional ocean model simulations of the Weddell Sea and FRIS, where deep convection is imposed with varying area, location, and duration. In these simulations, the idealized Weddell polynyas consistently cause an increase in WDW transport onto the continental shelf as a result of density changes above the shelf break. This leads to saltier, denser source waters for the FRIS cavity, which then experiences stronger circulation and increased ice shelf basal melting. It takes approximately 14 years for melt rates to return to normal after the deep convection ceases. Weddell polynyas similar to those seen in observations have a modest impact on FRIS melt rates, which is within the range of simulated interannual variability. However, polynyas that are larger or closer to the shelf break, such as those seen in many ocean models, trigger a stronger response. These results suggest that ocean models with excessive Weddell Sea convection may not be suitable boundary conditions for regional models of the Antarctic continental shelf and ice shelf cavities.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 17-07-2023
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-15-2695-2023
Abstract: Abstract. One of the key components of this research has been the mapping of Antarctic bed topography and ice thickness parameters that are crucial for modelling ice flow and hence for predicting future ice loss and the ensuing sea level rise. Supported by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), the Bedmap3 Action Group aims not only to produce new gridded maps of ice thickness and bed topography for the international scientific community, but also to standardize and make available all the geophysical survey data points used in producing the Bedmap gridded products. Here, we document the survey data used in the latest iteration, Bedmap3, incorporating and adding to all of the datasets previously used for Bedmap1 and Bedmap2, including ice bed, surface and thickness point data from all Antarctic geophysical c aigns since the 1950s. More specifically, we describe the processes used to standardize and make these and future surveys and gridded datasets accessible under the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) data principles. With the goals of making the gridding process reproducible and allowing scientists to re-use the data freely for their own analysis, we introduce the new SCAR Bedmap Data Portal (bedmap.scar.org, last access: 1 March 2023) created to provide unprecedented open access to these important datasets through a web-map interface. We believe that this data release will be a valuable asset to Antarctic research and will greatly extend the life cycle of the data held within it. Data are available from the UK Polar Data Centre: data.bas.ac.uk (last access: 5 May 2023). See the Data availability section for the complete list of datasets.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020JC016550
Abstract: Recent work on the Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) system has shown that a redirection of the coastal current in the southeastern Weddell Sea could lead to a regime change in which an intrusion of warm Modified Circumpolar Deep Water results in large increases in the basal melt rate. Work to date has mostly focused on how increases in the Modified Circumpolar Deep Water crossing the continental shelf break leads directly to heat driven changes in melting in the ice‐shelf cavity. In this study, we introduce a Weddell Sea regional ocean model configuration with static ice shelves. We evaluate a reference simulation against radar observations of melting, and find good agreement between the simulated and observed mean melt rates. We analyze 28 sensitivity experiments that simulate the influence of changes in remote water properties of the Antarctic Slope Current on basal melting in the FRIS. We find that remote changes in salinity quasi‐linearly modulate the mean FRIS net melt rate. Changes in remote temperature quadratically vary the FRIS net melt rate. In both salinity and temperature perturbations, the response is rapid and transient, with a recovery time‐scale of 5–15 years dependent on the size/type of perturbation. We show that the two types of perturbations lead to different changes on the continental shelf, and that ultimately different factors modulate the melt rates in the FRIS cavity. We discuss how these results, are relevant for ocean hindcast simulations, sea level, and melt rate projections of the FRIS.
Publisher: The Oceanography Society
Date: 12-2016
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020JC016113
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2022
Abstract: The melt rate of Antarctic ice shelves is of key importance for rising sea levels and future climate scenarios. Recent observations beneath Larsen C Ice Shelf revealed an ocean boundary layer that was highly turbulent and raised questions on the effect of these rich flow dynamics on the ocean heat transfer and the ice shelf melt rate. Directly motivated by the field observations, we have conducted large-eddy simulations (LES) to further examine the ocean boundary layer beneath Larsen C Ice Shelf. The LES was initialized with uniform temperature and salinity ( T–S ) and included a realistic tidal cycle and a small basal slope. A new parameterization based on previous work was applied at the top boundary to model near-wall turbulence and basal melting. The resulting vertical T–S profiles, melt rate, and friction velocity matched well with the Larsen C Ice Shelf observations. The instantaneous melt rate varied strongly with the tidal cycle, with faster flow increasing the turbulence and mixing of heat toward the ice base. An Ekman layer formed beneath the ice base and, due to the strong vertical shear of the current, Ekman rolls appeared in the mixed layer and stratified region (depth ≈ 20–60 m). In an additional high-resolution simulation (conducted with a smaller domain) the Ekman rolls were associated with increased turbulent kinetic energy, but a relatively small vertical heat flux. Our results will help with interpreting field observations and parameterizing the ocean-driven basal melting of ice shelves.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 14-12-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022GL100646
Abstract: Warm ocean waters drive rapid ice‐shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. The ocean heat transport toward the ice shelves is associated with the Amundsen Undercurrent, a near‐bottom current that flows eastward along the shelf break and transports warm waters onto the continental shelf via troughs. Here we use a regional ice‐ocean model to show that, on decadal time scales, the undercurrent's variability is baroclinic (depth‐dependent). Decadal ocean surface cooling in the tropical Pacific results in cyclonic wind anomalies over the Amundsen Sea. These wind anomalies drive a westward perturbation of the shelf‐break surface flow and an eastward anomaly (strengthening) of the undercurrent, leading to increased ice‐shelf melting. This contrasts with shorter time scales, for which surface current and undercurrent covary, a barotropic (depth‐independent) behavior previously assumed to apply at all time scales. This suggests that interior ocean processes mediate the decadal ice‐shelf response in the Amundsen Sea to climate forcing.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-03-2022
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Adrian Jenkins.