ORCID Profile
0000-0002-2024-9191
Current Organisation
University of Oxford
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Publisher: Wiley
Date: 02-05-2018
DOI: 10.1111/WEJ.12352
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2107
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 23-11-2017
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-2016
DOI: 10.1002/APP5.128
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-11-2016
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-2016-264
Abstract: Abstract. Modelling coastal morphological changes at decadal to centennial time scales is required to support sustainable coastal management world-wide. One approach involves coupling of landform-specific components (e.g. cliff, beach, dunes, estuaries, etc.) that have been independently developed. An alternative, and novel approach explored in this paper is to capture the essential characteristics of the landform-specific models using a common spatial representation within an appropriate software-environment. In the proposed Coastal Modelling Environment (CoastalME), change in coastal morphology is formulated by means of dynamically linked raster and geometrical objects. A grid of raster cells provides the data structure for representing quasi-3D spatial heterogeneity and sediment conservation. Other geometrical objects (lines, areas and volumes) that are consistent with, and derived from, the raster structure represent a library of coastal elements (e.g. shoreline, beach profiles and estuary volumes) as required by different landform-specific models. As a proof-of-concept, we illustrate the potential capabilities of CoastalME by integrating a cliff-beach model. We verify that CoastalME can reproduce behaviours of each in idual landform-specific model. Their integration within the framework of CoastalME reveals behaviours that emerge from landforms interaction and which have not previously been captured, such as the influence of the regional bathymetry on the local alongshore sediment transport gradient. This is the first step of the framework development, which provides an alternative to directly coupling existing models.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 24-02-2022
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 30-04-2018
Abstract: Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses erse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for ex le 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are lifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.
Publisher: Thomas Telford Ltd.
Date: 02-2017
Abstract: There have been many calls for a more strategic, long-term approach to national infrastructure in the UK and elsewhere around the world. While appealing in principle, developing a national infrastructure strategy in practice poses major challenges of complexity and uncertainty. The UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium has set out a systematic methodology for long-term analysis of the performance of national infrastructure systems. It deals with each infrastructure sector – energy, transport, digital communications, water supply, waste water, flood protection and solid waste – in a consistent framework and assesses the interdependencies between sectors. The method is supported with the world’s first infrastructure ‘system-of-systems’ model, which has been developed for long-term decision analysis in interdependent infrastructure systems. This paper presents the Nismod model’s analysis in the National Needs Assessment report launched at the Institution of Civil Engineers in October 2016.
Publisher: Annual Reviews
Date: 11-2016
DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-ENVIRON-110615-090011
Abstract: Losses from natural hazards, including geophysical and hydrometeorological hazards, have been increasing worldwide. This review focuses on the process by which scientific evidence about natural hazards is applied to support decision making. Decision analysis typically involves estimating the probability of extreme events assessing the potential impacts of those events from a variety of perspectives and evaluating options to plan for, mitigate, or react to events. We consider issues that affect decisions made across a range of natural hazards, summarize decision methodologies, and provide ex les of applications of decision analysis to the management of natural hazards. We conclude that there is potential for further exchange of ideas and experience between natural hazard research communities on decision analysis approaches. Broader application of decision methodologies to natural hazard management and evaluation of existing decision approaches can potentially lead to more efficient allocation of scarce resources and more efficient risk management.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-2018
DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000768
Publisher: Routledge
Date: 02-09-2009
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 17-07-2017
Abstract: Abstract. The ability to model morphological changes on complex, multi-landform coasts over decadal to centennial timescales is essential for sustainable coastal management worldwide. One approach involves coupling of landform-specific simulation models (e.g. cliffs, beaches, dunes and estuaries) that have been independently developed. An alternative, novel approach explored in this paper is to capture the essential characteristics of the landform-specific models using a common spatial representation within an appropriate software framework. This avoid the problems that result from the model-coupling approach due to between-model differences in the conceptualizations of geometries, volumes and locations of sediment. In the proposed framework, the Coastal Modelling Environment (CoastalME), change in coastal morphology is represented by means of dynamically linked raster and geometrical objects. A grid of raster cells provides the data structure for representing quasi-3-D spatial heterogeneity and sediment conservation. Other geometrical objects (lines, areas and volumes) that are consistent with, and derived from, the raster structure represent a library of coastal elements (e.g. shoreline, beach profiles and estuary volumes) as required by different landform-specific models. As a proof-of-concept, we illustrate the capabilities of an initial version of CoastalME by integrating a cliff–beach model and two wave propagation approaches. We verify that CoastalME can reproduce behaviours of the component landform-specific models. Additionally, the integration of these component models within the CoastalME framework reveals behaviours that emerge from the interaction of landforms, which have not previously been captured, such as the influence of the regional bathymetry on the local alongshore sediment-transport gradient and the effect on coastal change on an undefended coastal segment and on sediment bypassing of coastal structures.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 30-06-2017
DOI: 10.1111/RISA.12839
Abstract: Infrastructure adaptation measures provide a practical way to reduce the risk from extreme hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods and windstorms. The benefit of adapting infrastructure assets is evaluated as the reduction in risk relative to the "do nothing" case. However, evaluating the full benefits of risk reduction is challenging because of the complexity of the systems, the scarcity of data, and the uncertainty of future climatic changes. We address this challenge by integrating methods from the study of climate adaptation, infrastructure systems, and complex networks. In doing so, we outline an infrastructure risk assessment that incorporates interdependence, user demands, and potential failure-related economic losses. In idual infrastructure assets are intersected with probabilistic hazard maps to calculate expected annual damages. Protection measure costs are integrated to calculate risk reduction and associated discounted benefits, which are used to explore the business case for investment in adaptation. A demonstration of the methodology is provided for flood protection of major electricity substations in England and Wales. We conclude that the ongoing adaptation program for major electricity assets is highly cost beneficial.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Jim W Hall.