ORCID Profile
0000-0002-1971-7277
Current Organisation
Yale University
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Biological Mathematics | Terrestrial Ecology | Ecology | Conservation and Biodiversity
Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts) | Ecosystem Assessment and Management at Regional or Larger Scales | Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity at Regional or Larger Scales |
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-08-2023
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 09-07-2022
Abstract: Bio ersity varies predictably with environmental energy around the globe, but the underlaying mechanisms remain incompletely understood. The evolutionary speed hypothesis predicts that environmental kinetic energy shapes variation in speciation rates through temperature- or life history-dependent rates of evolution. To test whether variation in evolutionary speed can explain the relationship between energy and bio ersity in birds, mammals, hibians, and reptiles, we simulated ersification over 65 myr of geological and climatic change with a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary simulation model. We modeled four distinct evolutionary scenarios in which speciation-completion rates were dependent on temperature (M1), life history (M2), temperature and life history (M3), or were independent of temperature and life-history (M0). To assess the agreement between simulated and empirical data, we performed model selection by fitting supervised machine learning models to multidimensional bio ersity patterns. We show that a model with temperature-dependent rates of speciation (M1) consistently had the strongest support. In contrast to statistical inferences, which showed no general relationships between temperature and speciation rates in tetrapods, we demonstrate how process-based modeling can disentangle the causes behind empirical bio ersity patterns. Our study highlights how environmental energy has played a fundamental role in the evolution of bio ersity over deep time. [Biogeography ersification machine learning macroevolution molecular evolution simulation.]
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 30-08-2021
DOI: 10.1101/2021.08.26.457851
Abstract: Invasive alien species are repeatedly shown to be amongst the top threats to bio ersity globally. Robust indicators for measuring the status and trends of biological invasions are lacking, but essential for monitoring biological invasions and the effectiveness of interventions. Here, we formulate and demonstrate three such indicators that capture the key dimensions of species invasions, each a significant and necessary advance to inform invasive alien species policy targets: 1) Rate of Invasive Alien Species Spread, which provides modelled rates of ongoing introductions of species based on invasion discovery and reporting. 2) Impact Risk, that estimates invasive alien species impacts on the environment in space and time and provides a basis for nationally targeted prioritization of where best to invest in management efforts. 3) Status Information on invasive alien species, that tracks improvement in the essential dimensions of information needed to guide relevant policy and data collection and in support of assessing invasive alien species spread and impact. We show how proximal, model-informed status and trend indicators on invasive alien species can provide more effective global (and national) reporting on biological invasions, and how countries can contribute to supporting these indicators.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-12-2021
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 19-05-2022
DOI: 10.1101/2022.05.17.491528
Abstract: Butterflies are a erse and charismatic insect group that are thought to have ersified via coevolution with plants and in response to dispersals following key geological events. These hypotheses have been poorly tested at the macroevolutionary scale because a comprehensive phylogenetic framework and datasets on global distributions and larval hosts of butterflies are lacking. We sequenced 391 genes from nearly 2,000 butterfly species to construct a new, phylogenomic tree of butterflies representing 92% of all genera and aggregated global distribution records and larval host datasets. We found that butterflies likely originated in what is now the Americas, ∼100 Ma, shortly before the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum, then crossed Beringia and ersified in the Paleotropics. The ancestor of modern butterflies likely fed on Fabaceae, and most extant families were present before the K/Pg extinction. The majority of butterfly dispersals occurred from the tropics (especially the Neotropics) to temperate zones, largely supporting a “cradle” pattern of ersification. Surprisingly, host breadth changes and shifts to novel host plants had only modest impacts.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 05-08-2022
Abstract: Invertebrates constitute the majority of animal species and are critical for ecosystem functioning and services. Nonetheless, global invertebrate bio ersity patterns and their congruences with vertebrates remain largely unknown. We resolve the first high-resolution (~20-km) global ersity map for a major invertebrate clade, ants, using bio ersity informatics, range modeling, and machine learning to synthesize existing knowledge and predict the distribution of undiscovered ersity. We find that ants and different vertebrate groups have distinct features in their patterns of richness and rarity, underscoring the need to consider a ersity of taxa in conservation. However, despite their phylogenetic and physiological ergence, ant distributions are not highly anomalous relative to variation among vertebrate clades. Furthermore, our models predict that rarity centers largely overlap (78%), suggesting that general forces shape endemism patterns across taxa. This raises confidence that conservation of areas important for small-ranged vertebrates will benefit invertebrates while providing a “treasure map” to guide future discovery.
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 15-04-2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.14.031716
Abstract: Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of bio ersity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but bio ersity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future bio ersity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Development pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of bio ersity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 10-03-2023
DOI: 10.1111/GEB.13648
Abstract: Aquatic insects comprise 64% of freshwater animal ersity and are widely used as bioindicators to assess water quality impairment and freshwater ecosystem health, as well as to test ecological hypotheses. Despite their importance, a comprehensive, global database of aquatic insect occurrences for mapping freshwater bio ersity in macroecological studies and applied freshwater research is missing. We aim to fill this gap and present the Global EPTO Database , which includes worldwide geo‐referenced aquatic insect occurrence records for four major taxa groups: Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera and Odonata (EPTO). A total of 8,368,467 occurrence records globally, of which 8,319,689 (99%) are publicly available. The records are attributed to the corresponding drainage basin and sub‐catchment based on the Hydrography90m dataset and are accompanied by the elevation value, the freshwater ecoregion and the protection status of their location. The database covers the global extent, with 86% of the observation records having coordinates with at least four decimal digits (11.1 m precision at the equator) in the World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS84) coordinate reference system. S ling years span from 1951 to 2021. Ninety‐nine percent of the records have information on the year of the observation, 95% on the year and month, while 94% have a complete date. In the case of seven sub‐datasets, exact dates can be retrieved upon communication with the data contributors. Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera and Odonata, standardized at the genus taxonomic level. We provide species names for 7,727,980 (93%) records without further taxonomic verification. The entire tab‐separated value (.csv) database can be downloaded and visualized at roject/epto_database/ . Fifty in idual datasets are also available at fred.igb‐berlin.de , while six datasets have restricted access. For the latter, we share metadata and the contact details of the authors.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-09-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-08-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41559-021-01528-7
Abstract: To meet the ambitious objectives of bio ersity and climate conventions, the international community requires clarity on how these objectives can be operationalized spatially and how multiple targets can be pursued concurrently. To support goal setting and the implementation of international strategies and action plans, spatial guidance is needed to identify which land areas have the potential to generate the greatest synergies between conserving bio ersity and nature's contributions to people. Here we present results from a joint optimization that minimizes the number of threatened species, maximizes carbon retention and water quality regulation, and ranks terrestrial conservation priorities globally. We found that selecting the top-ranked 30% and 50% of terrestrial land area would conserve respectively 60.7% and 85.3% of the estimated total carbon stock and 66% and 89.8% of all clean water, in addition to meeting conservation targets for 57.9% and 79% of all species considered. Our data and prioritization further suggest that adequately conserving all species considered (vertebrates and plants) would require giving conservation attention to ~70% of the terrestrial land surface. If priority was given to bio ersity only, managing 30% of optimally located land area for conservation may be sufficient to meet conservation targets for 81.3% of the terrestrial plant and vertebrate species considered. Our results provide a global assessment of where land could be optimally managed for conservation. We discuss how such a spatial prioritization framework can support the implementation of the bio ersity and climate conventions.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 24-08-2023
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 18-01-2013
Abstract: A global system of harmonized observations is needed to inform scientists and policy-makers.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-08-2023
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-06-2020
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 16-04-2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.16.021444
Abstract: To meet the ambitious objectives of bio ersity and climate conventions, countries and the international community require clarity on how these objectives can be operationalized spatially, and multiple targets be pursued concurrently 1 . To support governments and political conventions, spatial guidance is needed to identify which areas should be managed for conservation to generate the greatest synergies between bio ersity and nature’s contribution to people (NCP). Here we present results from a joint optimization that maximizes improvements in species conservation status, carbon retention and water provisioning and rank terrestrial conservation priorities globally. We found that, selecting the top-ranked 30% (respectively 50%) of areas would conserve 62.4% (86.8%) of the estimated total carbon stock and 67.8% (90.7%) of all clean water provisioning, in addition to improving the conservation status for 69.7% (83.8%) of all species considered. If priority was given to bio ersity only, managing 30% of optimally located land area for conservation may be sufficient to improve the conservation status of 86.3% of plant and vertebrate species on Earth. Our results provide a global baseline on where land could be managed for conservation. We discuss how such a spatial prioritisation framework can support the implementation of the bio ersity and climate conventions.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 07-07-2023
Abstract: Faunal turnover in Indo-Australia across Wallace’s Line is one of the most recognizable patterns in biogeography and has catalyzed debate about the role of evolutionary and geoclimatic history in biotic interchanges. Here, analysis of more than 20,000 vertebrate species with a model of geoclimate and biological ersification shows that broad precipitation tolerance and dispersal ability were key for exchange across the deep-time precipitation gradient spanning the region. Sundanian (Southeast Asian) lineages evolved in a climate similar to the humid “stepping stones” of Wallacea, facilitating colonization of the Sahulian (Australian) continental shelf. By contrast, Sahulian lineages predominantly evolved in drier conditions, h ering establishment in Sunda and shaping faunal distinctiveness. We demonstrate how the history of adaptation to past environmental conditions shapes asymmetrical colonization and global biogeographic structure.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-03-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41559-019-0826-1
Abstract: Species distributions and abundances are undergoing rapid changes worldwide. This highlights the significance of reliable, integrated information for guiding and assessing actions and policies aimed at managing and sustaining the many functions and benefits of species. Here we synthesize the types of data and approaches that are required to achieve such an integration and conceptualize 'essential bio ersity variables' (EBVs) for a unified global capture of species populations in space and time. The inherent heterogeneity and sparseness of raw bio ersity data are overcome by the use of models and remotely sensed covariates to inform predictions that are contiguous in space and time and global in extent. We define the species population EBVs as a space-time-species-gram (cube) that simultaneously addresses the distribution or abundance of multiple species, with its resolution adjusted to represent available evidence and acceptable levels of uncertainty. This essential information enables the monitoring of single or aggregate spatial or taxonomic units at scales relevant to research and decision-making. When combined with ancillary environmental or species data, this fundamental species population information directly underpins a range of bio ersity and ecosystem function indicators. The unified concept we present links disparate data to downstream uses and informs a vision for species population monitoring in which data collection is closely integrated with models and infrastructure to support effective bio ersity assessment.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2022
DOI: 10.1016/J.TREE.2021.11.011
Abstract: Space-based tracking technology using low-cost miniature tags is now delivering data on fine-scale animal movement at near-global scale. Linked with remotely sensed environmental data, this offers a biological lens on habitat integrity and connectivity for conservation and human health a global network of animal sentinels of environmental change.
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 14-03-2022
Abstract: As the global urban population is poised to grow by 2.5 billion over the next 30 y, urban land conversions are expected to be an increasingly prominent driver of habitat and bio ersity loss. Mitigating these impacts urgently requires an improved understanding of where and how these bio ersity losses might occur. Here, we use a recently developed suite of land-use projections to provide an assessment of projected habitat that will be lost to urban land expansion for 30,393 species of terrestrial vertebrates from 2015 to 2050 across three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. We find that urban land expansion is a contributing driver of habitat loss (≥5% of total loss) for around one-third (26 to 39%) of the species assessed. For up to 855 species (2 to 3% of those assessed), urban land is a direct driver of species imperilment, driving at least one-quarter of a net habitat loss of 10% or more. Urban clusters with the greatest threats to species due to projected expansion are predominantly located in the developing tropical regions of sub-Saharan Africa, South America, Mesoamerica, and Southeast Asia. Our results suggest that strategies for minimizing the impacts of urban land could strengthen global bio ersity protection agreements. Collaborative, global action that focuses on vulnerable species and regions may represent an efficient strategy for avoiding the impacts forecast by our analysis.
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 10-2021
Abstract: Tropical moist forests harbor much of the world’s bio ersity, but this ersity is not evenly distributed globally, with tropical moist forests in the Neotropics and Indomalaya generally exhibiting much greater ersity than in the Afrotropics. Here, we assess the ubiquity of this “pantropical ersity disparity” (PDD) using the present-day distributions of over 150,000 species of plants and animals, and we compare these distributions with a spatial model of ersification combined with reconstructions of plate tectonics, temperature, and aridity. Our study demonstrates that differences in paleoenvironmental dynamics between continents, including mountain building, aridification, and global temperature fluxes, can explain the PDD by shaping spatial and temporal patterns of species origination and extinction, providing a close match to observed distributions of plants and animals.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-07-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41597-022-01514-Z
Abstract: The Country Compendium of the Global Register of Introduced and Invasive Species (GRIIS) is a collation of data across 196 in idual country checklists of alien species, along with a designation of those species with evidence of impact at a country level. The Compendium provides a baseline for monitoring the distribution and invasion status of all major taxonomic groups, and can be used for the purpose of global analyses of introduced (alien, non-native, exotic) and invasive species (invasive alien species), including regional, single and multi-species taxon assessments and comparisons. It enables exploration of gaps and inferred absences of species across countries, and also provides one means for updating in idual GRIIS Checklists. The Country Compendium is, for ex le, instrumental, along with data on first records of introduction, for assessing and reporting on invasive alien species targets, including for the Convention on Biological Diversity and Sustainable Development Goals. The GRIIS Country Compendium provides a baseline and mechanism for tracking the spread of introduced and invasive alien species across countries globally. Design Type(s) Data integration objective ● Observation design Measurement Type(s) Alien species occurrence ● Evidence of impact invasive alien species assessment objective Technology Type(s) Agent expert ● Data collation Factor Type(s) Geographic location ● Origin / provenance ● Habitat S le Characteristics - Organism Animalia ● Bacteria ● Chromista ● Fungi ● Plantae ● Protista (Protozoa) ● Viruses S le Characteristics - Location Global countries
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-09-2023
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-12-2007
DOI: 10.1111/J.1523-1739.2007.00847.X
Abstract: Species range maps based on extents of occurrence (EOO maps) have become the basis for many analyses in broad-scale ecology and conservation. Nevertheless, EOO maps are usually highly interpolated and overestimate small-scale occurrence, which may bias research outcomes. We evaluated geographical range overestimation and its potential ecological causes for 1158 bird species by quantifying EOO map occurrence across 4040 well-studied survey locations in Australia, North America, and southern Africa at the scale of 80-742 km2. Most species occurred in only 40-70% of the range indicated by their EOO maps. The observed proportional range overestimation affected the range-size frequency distribution, indicating that species are more range-restricted than suggested by EOO maps. The EOO maps most strongly overestimated the distribution of narrow-ranging species and ecological specialists with narrow diet and habitat breadth. These relationships support basic ecological predictions about the relationship between niche breadth and the fine-scale occurrence of species. Consequently, at-risk species were subject to particularly high proportional range overestimation, on average 62% compared with 37% of nonthreatened species. These trends affect broad-scale ecological analyses and species conservation assessments, which will benefit from a careful consideration of potential biases introduced by range overestimation.
Start Date: 2021
End Date: 06-2024
Amount: $393,190.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
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