ORCID Profile
0000-0001-6854-8708
Current Organisation
Australian National University
Does something not look right? The information on this page has been harvested from data sources that may not be up to date. We continue to work with information providers to improve coverage and quality. To report an issue, use the Feedback Form.
In Research Link Australia (RLA), "Research Topics" refer to ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes. These topics are either sourced from ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes listed in researchers' related grants or generated by a large language model (LLM) based on their publications.
Natural Resource Management | Simulation and Modelling | Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-12-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2021
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 03-03-2015
DOI: 10.3390/W7030898
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Date: 2011
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2014
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-02-2018
DOI: 10.1038/SDATA.2018.4
Abstract: An increasing amount of high-resolution global spatial data are available, and used for various assessments. However, key economic and human development indicators are still mainly provided only at national level, and downscaled by users for gridded spatial analyses. Instead, it would be beneficial to adopt data for sub-national administrative units where available, supplemented by national data where necessary. To this end, we present gap-filled multiannual datasets in gridded form for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Human Development Index (HDI). To provide a consistent product over time and space, the sub-national data were only used indirectly, scaling the reported national value and thus, remaining representative of the official statistics. This resulted in annual gridded datasets for GDP per capita (PPP), total GDP (PPP), and HDI, for the whole world at 5 arc-min resolution for the 25-year period of 1990–2015. Additionally, total GDP (PPP) is provided with 30 arc-sec resolution for three time steps (1990, 2000, 2015).
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 13-12-2017
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 29-06-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001321
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2017
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001422
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2022WR032194
Abstract: Factor Fixing (FF) is a common method for reducing the number of model parameters to lower computational cost. FF typically starts with distinguishing the insensitive parameters from the sensitive and pursues uncertainty quantification (UQ) on the resulting reduced‐order model, fixing each insensitive parameter at a fixed value. There is a need, however, to expand such a common approach to consider the effects of decision choices in the FF‐UQ procedure on metrics of interest. Therefore, to guide the use of FF and increase confidence in the resulting dimension‐reduced model, we propose a new adaptive framework consisting of four principles: (a) re‐parameterize the model first to reduce obvious non‐identifiable parameter combinations, (b) focus on decision relevance especially with respect to errors in quantities of interest (QoI), (c) conduct adaptive evaluation and robustness assessment of errors in the QoI across FF choices as s le size increases, and (d) reconsider whether fixing is warranted. The framework is demonstrated on a spatially‐distributed water quality model. The error in estimates of QoI caused by FF can be estimated using a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) surrogate model. Built with 70 model runs, the surrogate is computationally inexpensive to evaluate and can provide global sensitivity indices for free. For the selected catchment, just two factors may provide an acceptably accurate estimate of model uncertainty in the average annual load of Total Suspended Solids (TSS), suggesting that reducing the uncertainty in these two parameters is a priority for future work before undertaking further formal uncertainty quantification.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000477
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2015
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 10-05-2016
DOI: 10.3390/W8050193
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2013
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2014
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2014
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-10-2013
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-06-2012
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2015
DOI: 10.1016/J.JENVMAN.2014.11.028
Abstract: This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse in idual and group mental models (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process (4) All-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) computational (in this case agent-based) Model. We apply the proposed methodology (labelled ICTAM) in a case study of viticulture irrigation in South Australia. Finally, we use strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of ergent and convergent analysis methods leading to the construction of an Agent Based Model.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2014
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 26-06-2019
DOI: 10.3390/W11071318
Abstract: Regional long-term water management plans depend increasingly on investments by local water users such as farmers. However, local circumstances and in idual situations vary and investment decisions are made under uncertainty. Water users may therefore perceive the costs and benefits very differently, leading to non-uniform investment decisions. This variation can be explored using crossover points. A crossover point represents conditions in which a decision maker assigns equal preference to competing alternatives. This paper presents, applies, and evaluates a framework extending the use of the concept of crossover points to a participatory process in a group setting. We applied the framework in a case study in the Coal River Valley of Tasmania, Australia. Here, farmers can choose from multiple water sources. In this case, the focus on crossover points encouraged participants to engage in candid discussions exploring the personal lines of reasoning underlying their preferences. Participants learned from others’ inputs, and group discussions elicited information and insights considered valuable for both the participants and for outsiders on the factors that influence preferences. We conclude that the approach has a high potential to facilitate learning in groups and to support planning.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-03-2022
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU22-9464
Abstract: & & It has been said that culture eats strategy for breakfast. The effect of legacy over adequacy in modelling practice exemplifies the difficulty in changing behaviours to improve modelling outcomes. Ideally, good modelling practice would be incentivised by the systems in which modellers operate, and moreover, that modelling practice would have a learning orientation that gradually improves over time, seeking an ever closer alignment with organisational and societal needs.& & & & Digital twins institutionalised within organisational operations provide a possible opportunity to incentivise these behaviours. A digital twin is a time-varying representation of a system that brings together observed information and predictive model capabilities. Juxtaposing model predictions with other sources of information forces models to demonstrate their value, in continually changing conditions. Operational use of a digital twin means that models need to be fit for purpose. The need to prioritise investment across a digital twin means that the model suite needs to address a broad range of purposes and model augmentation is more likely to be driven by consideration of value of information and prioritisation of efforts to reduce uncertainty over time.& & & & These theoretical benefits are explored with ex le use cases in the context of cross-scale catchment water resource, landscape, and irrigation management, drawing on preliminary experiments in Australia.& &
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2015
Publisher: Wageningen University and Research
Date: 16-03-2022
DOI: 10.18174/SESMO.18126
Abstract: The impact of environmental factors on human health outcomes is well established. It is therefore not surprising that interventions aimed at improving human health are often environmental-based, such as restoring riparian vegetation for flood mitigation, with a view to reducing associated infectious disease transmission. Yet the risks and benefits of these interventions on the environment itself are rarely measured, or weighed up against potential health gains. One of the challenges with such an evaluation is the requirement for cross-sectoral support from decision makers in both the health and environmental sectors. To facilitate this support, cross-sectoral models are required that simultaneously estimate the impact of proposed environmental interventions on both sectors. Despite their obvious value, a systematic search of the peer-reviewed literature did not identify any model that concurrently models the impact of environmental intervention on both environmental and human infectious disease related outcomes. In this paper, we conceptually explore potential approaches for designing such a model, using leptospirosis as a case study to highlight the various data sources, spatial scales, temporal scales and required system behaviour that would need to be integrated for a cross-sectoral model of this complexity. By comparing these system requirements against the strengths and limitations of in idual modelling techniques, we demonstrate the potential benefits of a hybrid-ensemble approach that uses component models from different frameworks. By combining the strengths of the different techniques to tackle this wicked problem, such a modelling approach supports the prioritisation of environmental interventions that optimise the overall benefit by considering impacts on both human health and the environment.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2013
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017WR020609
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 31-07-2015
DOI: 10.3390/W7084200
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2013
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 02-2022
DOI: 10.1002/HYP.14492
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2015
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-06-2014
Publisher: Wageningen University and Research
Date: 18-05-2023
DOI: 10.18174/SESMO.18509
Abstract: Stakeholder participation in social-ecological systems (SES) modeling is increasingly considered a desirable way to elicit erse sources of knowledge about SES behavior and to promote inclusive decision-making in SES. Understanding how participatory modeling processes function in the context of long-term adaptive management of SES may allow for better design of participatory processes to achieve the intended outcomes of inclusionary knowledge, representativeness, and social learning, while avoiding unintended outcomes. Long-term adaptive management contexts often include political influences -- attempts to shift or preserve power structures and authority, and efforts to represent the political and economic interests of stakeholders -- in the computer models that are used to shape policy making and implementation. In this research, we examine a period that included a major transition in the watershed model used for management of the Chesapeake Bay in the United States. The Chesapeake Bay watershed model has been in development since the 1980s, and is considered by many to be an exemplary case of participatory modeling. We use documentary analysis and interviews with participants involved in the model application and development transition to reveal a variety of ways in which participatory modeling may be subject to different kinds of political influences, some of which resulted in unintended outcomes, including: perceptions of difficulty updating the model in substantive ways, “gaming” of the model articipatory process by stakeholders, and increasing resistance against considering uncertainty in the system not captured by the model. This research suggests unintended or negative outcomes may be associated with both participatory decision-making and stakeholder learning even though they are so often touted as the benefits of participatory modeling. We end with a hypothesis that further development of a theory of computer model governance to bridge model impact and broader theories of environmental governance at the science-policy interface may result in improved SES modeling outcomes.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-12-2019
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-09-2022
DOI: 10.5194/IAHS2022-318
Abstract: & & This presentation gives an overview of an investigation of the potential for managed aquifer recharge (MAR) in three established or emerging irrigated cotton-growing regions in Australia: the Lower Murrumbidgee and Lower Namoi basins in western NSW and the Gilbert River catchment in far northern Queensland. Ongoing interest in MAR as a strategy to support irrigated agriculture has not translated into much investment in Australia. The aim was to evaluate how MAR might be feasible for irrigated cotton production and associated cropping systems in the focus regions and make recommendations on next-step actions that could incrementally develop the knowledge, confidence and expertise needed to invest in MAR. The broad approach taken was to draw on evidence from a holistic feasibility assessment to scope a set of plausible scenarios for MAR, to test and refine these scenarios with local and state government stakeholders and researchers, and to develop recommendations to support any efforts to proceed with MAR by the funder (the Cotton Research and Development Corporation) or other parties.& & & & The scenarios varied in their scale (e.g. single farm, irrigation schemes), purpose (e.g. managing drawdown, reducing evaporative losses), infrastructure and governance arrangements. Together they highlighted the critical need to improve knowledge on local hydrogeological conditions and develop MAR policy and regulations that enhance the strengths of MAR whilst minimising risks. A water accounting grade estimate of recharge is critical to being confident that MAR provides an advantage over investing in reducing infiltration & #8220 losses& #8221 , allowing an allocation to be issued. As an initial step, MAR pilot studies could work with state government to test water accounting of recharge quantification methods in dedicated trial infiltration basins and test injection wells. Reducing uncertainty about evaporation and recharge rates is critical to comparing MAR as a low loss water storage solution to other evaporation or infiltration reduction alternatives. If land managers invest in improving understanding of aquifers under their land and quantifying seepage and evaporation over time, this will incrementally reduce uncertainty on the effectiveness and viability of MAR.& & &
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2015
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 14-03-2019
DOI: 10.3390/SU11061548
Abstract: Severe droughts can affect water security even in countries with le water resources. In addition, droughts are estimated to become more frequent in several regions due to changing climate. Drought affects many socio-economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, water supply, and industry), as it did in 2018 in Finland. Understanding the basin-wide picture is crucial in drought management planning. To identify vulnerable and water stressed areas in Finland, a water use-to-availability analysis was executed with a reference drought. Water stress was analyzed with the Water Depletion Index WDI. The analysis was executed using national water permits and databases. To represent a severe but realistic drought event, we modelled discharges and runoffs from the worst drought of the last century in Finland (1939–1942). The potential for performing similar analyses in data scarce contexts was also tested using estimates from global models as a screening tool. The results show that the South and Southwest of Finland would have problems with water availability during a severe drought. The most vulnerable areas would benefit from drought mitigation measures and management plans. These measures could be incorporated into the EU River Basin Management Plans.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2019
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-09-2022
DOI: 10.5194/IAHS2022-653
Abstract: & & This paper reports on the progress being made on the & #8220 Methodologies& #8221 chapter of the Panta Rhei synthesis book due in May 2023 and to be officially launched at 2023 IUGG General Assembly in Berlin. Panta Rhei cornerstone emphasis is to support policies and decision making through better understanding of phenomena that emerge from social and hydrological processes of human water relations and anticipate their future evolution. Different disciplines have different societal objectives or similar objectives with different lens within the domain of Panta Rhei. As a result different are methods used, with their respective challenges. Taking stock of extensive research conducted in the past decade in context Panta Rhei, this chapter identifies a spectrum of methods that have been used to understand and interpret human water relations, with qualitative methods at one end and quantitative methods at the other end of the spectrum. The chapter then synthesizes the methods by proposing that a phenomenon has more than one color in the qualitative-quantitative spectrum when viewed through the prism of interpretation. Taking a couple of ex les of phenomena, such as Jevon's paradox, the chapter demonstrates how various methodological colors in the spectrum (qualitative methods such as focus group discussions, surveys and quantitative methods such as agent based models) are needed to interpret its emergence, e.g. as a result of a lack of disincentives in case of Jevons paradox. It is concluded that for the first time erse disciplines are converging in their pursuit of understanding and predicting human water systems for social good and Panta Rhei has accelerated this convergence. This chapter ends with a call to action on what further methodological developments appear promising and what methods should be more widely adopted, i.e. a celebration of what has been accomplished so far.& &
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 17-04-2019
DOI: 10.3390/W11040798
Abstract: Development of joint irrigation infrastructure increasingly depends on investment decisions made by in idual farmers. Farmers base their decisions to invest on their current knowledge and understanding. As irrigation infrastructure development is ultimately a group decision, it is beneficial if in iduals have a common understanding of the various values at stake. Sharing the personal reasoning behind in idual decisions is a promising approach to build such common understanding. This study demonstrates application of participatory crossover analysis at a workshop in Tasmania, Australia. The workshop gave farmers the opportunity to discuss their broader considerations in investment decisions, beyond just financial or monetary factors. It centered on the question, “In what conditions would you—the in idual farmer—invest?” The participants’ willingness to pay, in the form of crossover points, was presented as a set of scenarios to start an explorative discussion between irrigators and non-irrigators. Evaluation feedback indicates that the workshop enabled participants to share new information, improved understanding of differences between neighbors, and generated more respect for others and their decisions. As expected, reasoning went beyond economic concerns, and changed over time. Lifestyle choices, long-term intergenerational planning, perceived risks, and intrinsic motivations emerged as factors influencing water valuation. Simply having a facilitated discussion about the reasons underlying in iduals’ willingness to pay seems to be a useful tool for better informed decision-making about joint irrigation infrastructure, and is worth testing in further case studies.
Start Date: 04-2019
End Date: 04-2022
Amount: $376,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded Activity