ORCID Profile
0000-0003-2137-5592
Current Organisation
University of Adelaide
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Ecological Impacts of Climate Change | Other Biological Sciences | Global Change Biology | Ecological Applications | Global Change Biology | Conservation And Biodiversity | Ecosystem Function | Invasive Species Ecology | Conservation and Biodiversity | Speciation and Extinction
Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change | Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences | Integrated (ecosystem) assessment and management | Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity at Regional or Larger Scales | Global climate change adaptation measures | Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species at Regional or Larger Scales | Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts) | Climate Change Adaptation Measures |
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 28-08-2022
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.16375
Abstract: Processes leading to range contractions and population declines of Arctic megafauna during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene are uncertain, with intense debate on the roles of human hunting, climatic change, and their synergy. Obstacles to a resolution have included an overreliance on correlative rather than process‐explicit approaches for inferring drivers of distributional and demographic change. Here, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the decline and extinction of the muskox ( Ovibos moschatus ) in Eurasia and in its expansion in North America using process‐explicit macroecological models. The approach integrates modern and fossil occurrence records, ancient DNA, spatiotemporal reconstructions of past climatic change, species‐specific population ecology, and the growth and spread of anatomically modern humans. We show that accurately reconstructing inferences of past demographic changes for muskox over the last 21,000 years require high dispersal abilities, large maximum densities, and a small Allee effect. Analyses of validated process‐explicit projections indicate that climatic change was the primary driver of muskox distribution shifts and demographic changes across its previously extensive (circumpolar) range, with populations responding negatively to rapid warming events. Regional analyses show that the range collapse and extinction of the muskox in Europe (~13,000 years ago) was likely caused by humans operating in synergy with climatic warming. In Canada and Greenland, climatic change and human activities probably combined to drive recent population sizes. The impact of past climatic change on the range and extinction dynamics of muskox during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition signals a vulnerability of this species to future increased warming. By better establishing the ecological processes that shaped the distribution of the muskox through space and time, we show that process‐explicit macroecological models have important applications for the future conservation and management of this iconic species in a warming Arctic.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 17-02-2012
Publisher: Inter-Research Science Center
Date: 20-08-2013
DOI: 10.3354/CR01172
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 18-02-2021
DOI: 10.1101/2021.02.17.431706
Abstract: Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last in idual. However, causes of early-stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-09-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3086
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2016
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-05-2019
DOI: 10.1002/ECY.2750
Abstract: With ongoing introductions into Australia since the 1700s, the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) has become one of the most widely distributed and abundant vertebrate pests, adversely impacting Australia's bio ersity and agroeconomy. To understand the population and range dynamics of the species and its impacts better, occurrence and abundance data have been collected by researchers and citizens from sites covering a broad spectrum of climatic and environmental conditions in Australia. The lack of a common and accessible repository for these data has, however, limited their use in determining important spatiotemporal drivers of the structure and dynamics of the geographical range of rabbits in Australia. To meet this need, we created the Australian National Rabbit Database, which combines more than 50 yr of historical and contemporary survey data collected from throughout the range of the species in Australia. The survey data, obtained from a suite of complementary monitoring methods, were combined with high-resolution weather, climate, and environmental information, and an assessment of data quality. The database provides records of rabbit occurrence (689,265 records) and abundance (51,241 records, >120 distinct sites) suitable for identifying the spatiotemporal drivers of the rabbit's distribution and for determining spatial patterns of variation in its key life-history traits, including maximum rates of population growth. Because all data are georeferenced and date st ed, they can be coupled with information from other databases and spatial layers to explore the potential effects of rabbit occurrence and abundance on Australia's native wildlife and agricultural production. The Australian National Rabbit Database is an important tool for understanding and managing the European rabbit in its invasive range and its effects on native bio ersity and agricultural production. It also provides a valuable resource for addressing questions related to the biology, success, and impacts of invasive species more generally. No copyright or proprietary restrictions are associated with the use of this data set other than citation of this Data Paper.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-09-2013
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.12289
Abstract: Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-10-2017
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 30-10-2017
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.13932
Abstract: The current distribution of species, environmental conditions and their interactions represent only one snapshot of a planet that is continuously changing, in part due to human influences. To distinguish human impacts from natural factors, the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, since the Last Glacial Maximum, are often used to determine whether patterns of ersity today are artefacts of past climate change. In the absence of high-temporal resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions, this is generally done by assuming that past climate change occurred at a linear pace between widely spaced (usually, ≥1,000 years) climate snapshots. We show here that this is a flawed assumption because regional climates have changed significantly across decades and centuries during glacial-interglacial cycles, likely causing rapid regional replacement of biota. We demonstrate how recent atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the climate of the past 21,000 years can provide credible estimates of the details of climate change on decadal to centennial timescales, showing that these details differ radically from what might be inferred from longer timescale information. High-temporal resolution information can provide more meaningful estimates of the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, the location and timing of drivers of physiological stress, and the extent of novel climates. They also produce new opportunities to directly investigate whether short-term climate variability is more important in shaping bio ersity patterns rather than gradual changes in long-term climatic means. Together, these more accurate measures of past climate instability are likely to bring about a better understanding of the role of palaeoclimatic change and variability in shaping current macroecological patterns in many regions of the world.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-05-2019
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.14625
Abstract: In the face of increasing cumulative effects from human and natural disturbances, sustaining coral reefs will require a deeper understanding of the drivers of coral resilience in space and time. Here we develop a high-resolution, spatially explicit model of coral dynamics on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Our model accounts for biological, ecological and environmental processes, as well as spatial variation in water quality and the cumulative effects of coral diseases, bleaching, outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and tropical cyclones. Our projections reconstruct coral cover trajectories between 1996 and 2017 over a total reef area of 14,780 km
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 23-10-2019
DOI: 10.1111/GEB.13015
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-02-2014
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 10-02-2023
DOI: 10.1101/2023.02.09.526923
Abstract: The drivers and dynamics of initial human migrations across in idual islands and archipelagos are poorly understood, affecting assessments of human-modification of island bio ersity. Here, we describe and test a process-explicit approach for reconstructing human arrival and expansion on islands, which combines archaeological and climate records with high-resolution spatial population models. Using Polynesian colonisation of New Zealand as an ex le, we show that our new method can generate information crucial for assessing how humans affected bio ersity on islands. The transition of islands from prehuman to human dominated ecosystems has typically been assessed by comparing bio ersity before and after time of first arrival, without considering the potential importance of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the human expansion event. Our new approach, which uses pattern-oriented modelling methods to combine inferences of human colonisation dynamics from dated archaeological material with spatially explicit population models, produces validated reconstructions of the pattern and pace of human migration across islands at high spatiotemporal resolutions. From these reconstructions, demographic and environmental drivers of human colonization can be identified, and the role that people had on bio ersity established. Using this technique, we show that closely reconciling inferences of Polynesian colonisation of New Zealand requires there to have been a single founding population of approximately 500 people, arriving between 1233 and 1257 AD, settling multiple areas, and expanding quickly over both North and South islands. The resultant maps of Māori colonisation dynamics provide new opportunities to better determine how human activities transformed bio ersity of New Zealand in space and time. Process-explicit models can reconstruct human migration across large islands, producing validated, high resolution spatiotemporal projections of human occupancy and abundance that account for dispersal and population dynamics. This modelling framework should prove effective across any islands and archipelagos where climate and archaeological records are available.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-11-2018
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.13935
Abstract: Criticism has been levelled at climate-change-induced forecasts of species range shifts that do not account explicitly for complex population dynamics. The relative importance of such dynamics under climate change is, however, undetermined because direct tests comparing the performance of demographic models vs. simpler ecological niche models are still lacking owing to difficulties in evaluating forecasts using real-world data. We provide the first comparison of the skill of coupled ecological-niche-population models and ecological niche models in predicting documented shifts in the ranges of 20 British breeding bird species across a 40-year period. Forecasts from models calibrated with data centred on 1970 were evaluated using data centred on 2010. We found that more complex coupled ecological-niche-population models (that account for dispersal and metapopulation dynamics) tend to have higher predictive accuracy in forecasting species range shifts than structurally simpler models that only account for variation in climate. However, these better forecasts are achieved only if ecological responses to climate change are simulated without static snapshots of historic land use, taken at a single point in time. In contrast, including both static land use and dynamic climate variables in simpler ecological niche models improve forecasts of observed range shifts. Despite being less skilful at predicting range changes at the grid-cell level, ecological niche models do as well, or better, than more complex models at predicting the magnitude of relative change in range size. Therefore, ecological niche models can provide a reasonable first approximation of the magnitude of species' potential range shifts, especially when more detailed data are lacking on dispersal dynamics, demographic processes underpinning population performance, and change in land cover.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 15-04-2014
DOI: 10.1111/DDI.12208
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-02-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCOMMS10491
Abstract: Coral reefs are among the most species-rich and threatened ecosystems on Earth, yet the extent to which human stressors determine species occurrences, compared with biogeography or environmental conditions, remains largely unknown. With ever-increasing human-mediated disturbances on these ecosystems, an important question is not only how many species can inhabit local communities, but also which biological traits determine species that can persist (or not) above particular disturbance thresholds. Here we show that human pressure and seasonal climate variability are disproportionately and negatively associated with the occurrence of large-bodied and geographically small-ranging fishes within local coral reef communities. These species are 67% less likely to occur where human impact and temperature seasonality exceed critical thresholds, such as in the marine bio ersity hotspot: the Coral Triangle. Our results identify the most sensitive species and critical thresholds of human and climatic stressors, providing opportunity for targeted conservation intervention to prevent local extinctions.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 19-09-2019
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.5609
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-09-2011
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2013
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-07-2023
DOI: 10.1002/PAN3.10495
Abstract: Over recent decades, our understanding of climate change has accelerated greatly, but unfortunately, observable impacts have increased in tandem. Both mitigation and adaptation have not progressed at the level or scale warranted by our collective knowledge on climate change. More effective approaches to engage people on current and future anthropogenic climate change effects are urgently needed. Here, we show how species whose distributions are shifting in response to climate change, that is, ‘species‐on‐the‐move’, present an opportunity to engage people with climate change by linking to human values, and our deep connections with the places in which we live, in a locally relevant yet globally coherent narrative. Species‐on‐the‐move can impact ecosystem structure and function, food security, human health, livelihoods, culture and even the climate itself through feedback to the climate system, presenting a wide variety of potential pathways for people to understand that climate change affects them personally as in iduals. Citizen science focussed on documenting changes in bio ersity is one approach to foster a deeper engagement on climate change. However, other possible avenues, which may offer potential to engage people currently unconnected with nature, include arts, games or collaborations with rural agriculture (e.g. new occurrences of pest species) or fisheries organisations (e.g. shifting stocks) or healthcare providers (e.g. changing distributions of disease vectors). Through the importance we place on the aspects of life impacted by the redistribution of species around us, species‐on‐the‐move offer emotional pathways to connect with people on the complex issue of climate change in profound ways that have the potential to engender interest and action on climate change. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 29-07-2016
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 16-06-2017
DOI: 10.1111/JVS.12546
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2013
DOI: 10.1071/WR13005
Abstract: Context Conservation of vulnerable and endangered species requires a comprehensive understanding of their distribution and habitat requirements, so as to implement effective management strategies. Visual scat surveys are a common non-invasive method for monitoring populations. However, morphological similarity of scats among sympatric species presents a problem for accurate identification. Visual misidentifications of scats can have major impacts on the accuracy of abundance and distribution surveys of target species, wasting resources and misdirecting management and conservation actions. DNA identification of scats can overcome this issue, while simultaneously providing a rich source of genetic information for population and dietary studies. Aims We developed a simple and reliable method to identify morphologically similar macropod scats from eight sympatric species in north-eastern Australia, using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) of a portion of the mtDNA ND2 gene. Methods We identified a short (275-bp) polymorphic region of ND2, which is easily lifiable from degraded DNA, developed a primer set, and identified a set of three restriction endonucleases (AluI, BstNI and HphI) which, in combination, can discriminate among the eight target species. So as to test the effectiveness of this protocol, we collected 914 macropod scats from 53 sites in the north-eastern Australia. Key results In total, 406 of these scats were extracted, with 398 (98%) containing lifiable macropod DNA. All 398 scats were subsequently identified to species by using our RFLP protocol. Sequencing of a subset of these s les confirmed the accuracy of the test. Species identification of scats by using DNA identified eight species of macropods, five of which were outside their documented distributions, one of which was ~400 km. Conclusions Our PCR–RFLP method is a simple and efficient means to identify macropod scats to species, eliminating the need for sequencing, which is costly, time-consuming and requires additional laboratory equipment. Implications The method allows for rapid and non-invasive assessment of macropod species and is particularly useful for surveying populations across multiple sites.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 30-01-2201
DOI: 10.1111/DDI.12050
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2013
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-01-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCOMMS10511
Abstract: Late Quaternary megafauna extinctions impoverished mammalian ersity worldwide. The causes of these extinctions in Australia are most controversial but essential to resolve, because this continent-wide event presaged similar losses that occurred thousands of years later on other continents. Here we apply a rigorous metadata analysis and new ensemble-hindcasting approach to 659 Australian megafauna fossil ages. When coupled with analysis of several high-resolution climate records, we show that megafaunal extinctions were broadly synchronous among genera and independent of climate aridity and variability in Australia over the last 120,000 years. Our results reject climate change as the primary driver of megafauna extinctions in the world’s most controversial context, and instead estimate that the megafauna disappeared Australia-wide ∼13,500 years after human arrival, with shorter periods of coexistence in some regions. This is the first comprehensive approach to incorporate uncertainty in fossil ages, extinction timing and climatology, to quantify mechanisms of prehistorical extinctions.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-11-2021
DOI: 10.1111/ELE.13911
Abstract: Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last in idual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process‐explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process‐explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate‐driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid‐Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range‐wide extinction.
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 07-07-2014
Abstract: Geographical range dynamics are driven by the joint effects of abiotic factors, human ecosystem modifications, biotic interactions and the intrinsic organismal responses to these. However, the relative contribution of each component remains largely unknown. Here, we compare the contribution of life-history attributes, broad-scale gradients in climate and geographical context of species’ historical ranges, as predictors of recent changes in area of occupancy for 116 terrestrial British breeding birds (74 contractors, 42 expanders) between the early 1970s and late 1990s. Regional threat classifications demonstrated that the species of highest conservation concern showed both the largest contractions and the smallest expansions. Species responded differently to climate depending on geographical distribution—northern species changed their area of occupancy (expansion or contraction) more in warmer and drier regions, whereas southern species changed more in colder and wetter environments. Species with slow life history (larger body size) tended to have a lower probability of changing their area of occupancy than species with faster life history, whereas species with greater natal dispersal capacity resisted contraction and, counterintuitively, expansion. Higher geographical fragmentation of species' range also increased expansion probability, possibly indicating a release from a previously limiting condition, for ex le through agricultural abandonment since the 1970s. After accounting statistically for the complexity and nonlinearity of the data, our results demonstrate two key aspects of changing area of occupancy for British birds: (i) climate is the dominant driver of change, but direction of effect depends on geographical context, and (ii) all of our predictors generally had a similar effect regardless of the direction of the change (contraction versus expansion). Although we caution applying results from Britain's highly modified and well-studied bird community to other biogeographic regions, our results do indicate that a species' propensity to change area of occupancy over decadal scales can be explained partially by a combination of simple allometric predictors of life-history pace, average climate conditions and geographical context.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2007
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 25-02-2009
Abstract: We link spatially explicit climate change predictions to a dynamic metapopulation model. Predictions of species' responses to climate change, incorporating metapopulation dynamics and elements of dispersal, allow us to explore the range margin dynamics for two lagomorphs of conservation concern. Although the lagomorphs have very different distribution patterns, shifts at the edge of the range were more pronounced than shifts in the overall metapopulation. For Romerolagus diazi (volcano rabbit), the lower elevation range limit shifted upslope by approximately 700 m. This reduced the area occupied by the metapopulation, as the mountain peak currently lacks suitable vegetation. For Lepus timidus (European mountain hare), we modelled the British metapopulation. Increasing the dispersive estimate caused the metapopulation to shift faster on the northern range margin (leading edge). By contrast, it caused the metapopulation to respond to climate change slower , rather than faster, on the southern range margin (trailing edge). The differential responses of the leading and trailing range margins and the relative sensitivity of range limits to climate change compared with that of the metapopulation centroid have important implications for where conservation monitoring should be targeted. Our study demonstrates the importance and possibility of moving from simple bioclimatic envelope models to second-generation models that incorporate both dynamic climate change and metapopulation dynamics.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-05-2016
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 12-09-2023
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-10-2021
DOI: 10.1111/ECOG.05895
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 22-02-2014
Abstract: The ‘ ersity–stability hypothesis’, in which higher species ersity within biological communities buffers the risk of ecological collapse, is now generally accepted. However, empirical evidence for a relationship between β - ersity (spatial turnover in community structure) and temporal stability in community structure remains equivocal, despite important implications for theoretical ecology and conservation biology. Here, we report strong β - ersity–stability relationships across a broad s le of fish taxa on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. These relationships were robust to random s ling error and spatial and environmental factors, such as latitude, reef size and isolation. While β - ersity was positively associated with temporal stability at the community level, the relationship was negative for some taxa, for ex le surgeonfishes (Acanthuridae), one of the most abundant reef fish families. This demonstrates that the β - ersity–stability relationship should not be indiscriminately assumed for all taxa, but that a species’ risk of extirpation in response to disturbance is likely to be taxon specific and trait based. By combining predictions of spatial and temporal turnover across the study area with observations in marine-protected areas, we conclude that protection alone does not necessarily confer temporal stability and that taxon-specific considerations will improve the outcome of conservation efforts.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 14-02-2014
DOI: 10.1111/DDI.12180
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 14-11-2018
Abstract: Loss of dispersal typifies island biotas, but the selective processes driving this phenomenon remain contentious. This is because selection via, both indirect (e.g. relaxed selection or island syndromes) and direct (e.g. natural selection or spatial sorting) processes may be involved, and no study has yet convincingly distinguished between these alternatives. Here, we combined observational and experimental analyses of an island lizard, the Komodo dragon ( Varanus komodoensis , the world's largest lizard), to provide evidence for the actions of multiple processes that could contribute to island dispersal loss. In the Komodo dragon, concordant results from telemetry, simulations, experimental translocations, mark-recapture, and gene flow studies indicated that despite impressive physical and sensory capabilities for long-distance movement, Komodo dragons exhibited near complete dispersal restriction: in iduals rarely moved beyond the valleys they were born/captured in. Importantly, lizard site-fidelity was insensitive to common agents of dispersal evolution (i.e. indices of risk for inbreeding, kin and intraspecific competition, and low habitat quality) that consequently reduced survival of resident in iduals. We suggest that direct selection restricts movement capacity (e.g. via benefits of spatial philopatry and increased costs of dispersal) alongside use of dispersal-compensating traits (e.g. intraspecific niche partitioning) to constrain dispersal in island species.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-06-2012
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.281
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-07-2013
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1954
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2006
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-10-2011
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-01-2014
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.12343
Abstract: The Vulnerable (IUCN) whale shark spans warm and temperate waters around the globe. However, their present-day and possible future global distribution has never been predicted. Using 30 years (1980-2010) of whale shark observations recorded by tuna purse-seiners fishing in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans, we applied generalized linear mixed-effects models to test the hypothesis that similar environmental covariates predict whale shark occurrence in all major ocean basins. We derived global predictors from satellite images for chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature, and bathymetric charts for depth, bottom slope and distance to shore. We randomly generated pseudo-absences within the area covered by the fisheries, and included fishing effort as an offset to account for potential s ling bias. We predicted sea surface temperatures for 2070 using an ensemble of five global circulation models under a no climate-policy reference scenario, and used these to predict changes in distribution. The full model (excluding standard deviation of sea surface temperature) had the highest relative statistical support (wAICc = 0.99) and explained ca. 60% of the deviance. Habitat suitability was mainly driven by spatial variation in bathymetry and sea surface temperature among oceans, although these effects differed slightly among oceans. Predicted changes in sea surface temperature resulted in a slight shift of suitable habitat towards the poles in both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans (ca. 5°N and 3-8°S, respectively) accompanied by an overall range contraction (2.5-7.4% and 1.1-6.3%, respectively). Predicted changes in the Pacific Ocean were small. Assuming that whale shark environmental requirements and human disturbances (i.e. no stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions) remain similar, we show that warming sea surface temperatures might promote a net retreat from current aggregation areas and an overall redistribution of the species.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-12-2012
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2014
DOI: 10.1016/J.TREE.2014.05.007
Abstract: The spatiotemporal response of species to past global change must be understood for adaptive management and to make useful predictions. Characteristics of past population dynamics are imprinted in genes, yet these molecular 'log books' are just beginning to be used to improve forecasts of biotic responses to climate change. This is despite there now being robust quantitative frameworks to incorporate such information. A tighter integration of genetic data into models of species range dynamics should lead to more robust and validated predictions of the response of demographic and evolutionary processes to large-scale environmental change. The use of these multidisciplinary methods will help conservation scientists to better connect theory to the on-ground design and implementation of effective measures to protect bio ersity.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 09-07-2018
Abstract: European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) have been exposed to rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) and myxoma virus (MYXV) in their native and invasive ranges for decades. Yet, the long-term effects of these viruses on rabbit population dynamics remain poorly understood. In this context, we analysed 17 years of detailed capture-mark-recapture data (2000-2016) from Turretfield, South Australia, using a probabilistic state-space hierarchical modelling framework to estimate rabbit survival and epidemiological dynamics. While RHDV infection and disease-induced death were most prominent during annual epidemics in winter and spring, we found evidence for continuous infection of susceptible in iduals with RHDV throughout the year. RHDV-susceptible rabbits had, on average, 25% lower monthly survival rates compared to immune in iduals, while the average monthly force of infection in winter and spring was ~38%. These combined to result in an average infection-induced mortality rate of 69% in winter and spring. In iduals susceptible to MYXV and immune to RHDV had similar survival probabilities to those having survived infections from both viruses, whereas in iduals susceptible to both RHDV and MYXV had higher survival probabilities than those susceptible to RHDV and immune to MYXV. This suggests that MYXV may reduce the future survival rates of in iduals that endure initial MYXV infection. There was no evidence for long-term changes in disease-induced mortality and infection rates for either RHDV or MYXV. We conclude that continuous, year-round virus perpetuation (and perhaps heterogeneity in modes of transmission and infectious doses during and after epidemics) acts to reduce the efficiency of RHDV and MYXV as biocontrol agents of rabbits in their invasive range. However, if virulence can be maintained as relatively constant through time, RHDV and MYXV will likely continue realizing strong benefits as biocontrol agents.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 15-12-2015
Abstract: To conserve future bio ersity, a better understanding of the likely effects of climate and land‐use change on the geographical distributions of species and the persistence of ecological communities is needed. Recent advances have integrated population dynamic processes into species distribution models ( SDM s), to reduce potential biases in predictions and to better reflect the demographic nuances of incremental range shifts. However, there is no clear framework for selecting the most appropriate demographic‐based model for a given data set or scientific question. We review the computer‐based modelling platforms currently used for the development of either population‐ or in idual‐based species range dynamics models. We describe the features and requirements of 20 software platforms commonly used to generate simulations of species ranges and abundances. We classify the platforms according to particular capabilities or features that account for user requirements and constraints, such as (i) ability to simulate simple to complex population dynamics, (ii) organism specificity or (iii) their computational capacities. Using this classification, we develop a protocol for choosing the most appropriate framework for modelling species range dynamics based in data availability and research requirements. We find that the main differences between modelling platforms are related to the way in which they simulate population dynamics, the type of organisms they are able to model and the ecological processes they incorporate. We show that some platforms can be used as generic modelling software to investigate a broad range of ecological questions related to the range dynamics of most species, and how these are likely to change in the future in response to forecast climate and land‐use change. We argue that model predictions will be improved by reducing usage to a smaller number of highly flexible freeware platforms. Our approach provides ecologists and conservation biologists with a clear method for selecting the most appropriate software platform that meets their needs when developing SDM s coupled with population‐dynamic processes. We argue that informed tool choice will translate to better predictions of species responses to climate and land‐use change and improved conservation management.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-05-2016
DOI: 10.1002/JWMG.21093
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 2012
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2019
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2015
DOI: 10.1071/MF14081
Abstract: Little is known about the population trajectory and dynamics of many marine invertebrates because of a lack of robust observational data. The giant Australian cuttlefish (Sepia apama) is IUCN-listed as Near Threatened because the largest known breeding aggregation of this species in northern Spencer Gulf, South Australia, has declined markedly since the turn of the century. We used by-catch records from long-term trawl surveys to derive abundance data for S. apama and commercial cuttlefish harvest data as a measure of exploitation. Using Bayesian hierarchical models to account for zero-inflation and spatial dependence in these abundance counts, we demonstrated a high probability of broad-scale declines in the density of S. apama, particularly surrounding the primary aggregation site, which supports the recent closure of the entire S. apama fishery in northern Spencer Gulf. Historical harvest data were positively correlated with S. apama density estimated from the trawl surveys, suggesting that the commercial cuttlefish catch tracks the species abundance. Our results also indicated the possibility that the known S. apama breeding grounds might be supplemented by in iduals that were spawned elsewhere in northern Spencer Gulf.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-02-2020
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 28-08-2020
Abstract: The late Quaternary paleorecord, within the past ∼130,000 years, can help to inform present-day management of the Earth's ecosystems and biota under climate change. Fordham et al. review when and where rapid climate transitions can be found in the paleoclimate record. They show how such events in Earth's history can shape our understanding of the consequences of future global warming, including rates of bio ersity loss, changes in ecosystem structure and function, and degradation in the goods and services that these ecosystems provide to humanity. They also highlight how recent developments at the intersection of paleoecology, paleoclimatology, and macroecology can provide opportunities to anticipate and manage the responses of species and ecosystems to changing climates in the Anthropocene. Science , this issue p. eabc5654
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-02-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2113
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 28-09-2021
Abstract: Spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) can simulate spatiotemporal changes in species' range dynamics in response to variation in climatic and environmental conditions, and anthropogenic activities. When combined with pattern‐oriented modelling methods, ecological processes and drivers of range shifts and extinctions can be identified, and plausible chains of causality revealed. The open‐source multi‐platform R package poems provides functionality for simulating and validating projections of species' range dynamics using stochastic, lattice‐based population models. Built‐in modules allow parameter uncertainty to propagate through to model simulations, with their effects on species' range dynamics evaluated using Approximate Bayesian Computation. These validation procedures identify models with the structural complexity and parameterisation needed to simulate the effects of past changes in climate, environment and human activities on species' range shifts and extinction risk. We illustrate the features and versatility of poems by simulating the historical decline and extinction of the Thylacine Thylacinus cynocephalus , an icon of recent extinctions in Australia. We show that poems can reveal likely ecological pathways to extinction using pattern‐oriented methods, providing validated projections of the range collapse and population decline of threatened species. By providing flexible and extendable modules for building and validating SEPMs of species' range dynamics, poems allows the effects of past and future threats on species' populations to be quantified using well‐parameterised, structurally realistic models, with important generative mechanisms. Since poems can directly unravel ecological processes of species responses to global change, and strengthen predictions of range shifts and extinction risk—within a flexible, R‐based environment—we anticipate that poems will be of significant value to ecologists, conservation managers and biogeographers.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-07-2006
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 05-2014
Abstract: Forecasts of range dynamics now incorporate many of the mechanisms and interactions that drive species distributions. However, connectivity continues to be simulated using overly simple distance-based dispersal models with little consideration of how the in idual behaviour of dispersing organisms interacts with landscape structure (functional connectivity). Here, we link an in idual-based model to a niche-population model to test the implications of this omission. We apply this novel approach to a turtle species inhabiting wetlands which are patchily distributed across a tropical savannah, and whose persistence is threatened by two important synergistic drivers of global change: predation by invasive species and overexploitation. We show that projections of local range dynamics in this study system change substantially when functional connectivity is modelled explicitly. Accounting for functional connectivity in model simulations causes the estimate of extinction risk to increase, and predictions of range contraction to slow. We conclude that models of range dynamics that simulate functional connectivity can reduce an important source of bias in predictions of shifts in species distributions and abundances, especially for organisms whose dispersal behaviours are strongly affected by landscape structure.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-04-2014
DOI: 10.1111/AEC.12134
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 09-01-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2011
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2010
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-01-2016
Abstract: Assessing the impacts of multiple, often synergistic, stressors on the population dynamics of long-lived species is becoming increasingly important due to recent and future global change. Tiliqua rugosa (sleepy lizard) is a long-lived skink (>30 years) that is adapted to survive in semi-arid environments with varying levels of parasite exposure and highly seasonal food availability. We used an exhaustive database of 30 years of capture-mark-recapture records to quantify the impacts of both parasite exposure and environmental conditions on the lizard's survival rates and long-term population dynamics. Lizard abundance was relatively stable throughout the study period however, there were changing patterns in adult and juvenile apparent survival rates, driven by spatial and temporal variation in levels of tick exposure and temporal variation in environmental conditions. Extreme weather events during the winter and spring seasons were identified as important environmental drivers of survival. Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme hot and dry winter and spring seasons in our South Australian study region from a contemporary probability of 0.17 up to 0.47-0.83 in 2080 depending on the emissions scenario. Our stochastic population model projections showed that these future climatic conditions will induce a decline in the abundance of this long-lived reptile of up to 67% within 30 years from 2080, under worst case scenario modelling. The results have broad implications for future work investigating the drivers of population dynamics and persistence. We highlight the importance of long-term data sets and accounting for synergistic impacts between multiple stressors. We show that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme climate events have the potential to considerably and negatively influence a long-lived species, which might previously have been assumed to be resilient to environmental perturbations.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-2011
DOI: 10.1890/11-0314.1
Publisher: Figshare
Date: 2016
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 10-2016
Abstract: The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on bio ersity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species–area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays—an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 14-10-2016
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.2381
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 14-07-2022
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.16328
Abstract: The vulnerability of marine bio ersity to accelerated rates of climatic change is poorly understood. By developing a new method for identifying extreme oceanic warming events during Earth's most recent deglaciation, and comparing these to 21st century projections, we show that future rates of ocean warming will disproportionately affect the most speciose marine communities, potentially threatening bio ersity in more than 70% of current-day global hotspots of marine species richness. The persistence of these richest areas of marine bio ersity will require many species to move well beyond the biogeographic realm where they are endemic, at rates of redistribution not previously seen. Our approach for quantifying exposure of bio ersity to past and future rates of oceanic warming provides new context and scalable information for deriving and strengthening conservation actions to safeguard marine bio ersity under climate change.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2016
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 07-09-2012
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-09-2018
DOI: 10.1111/DDI.12767
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-06-2012
DOI: 10.1111/J.1365-2486.2012.02742.X
Abstract: The distributional ranges of many species are contracting with habitat conversion and climate change. For vertebrates, informed strategies for translocations are an essential option for decisions about their conservation management. The pygmy bluetongue lizard, Tiliqua adelaidensis, is an endangered reptile with a highly restricted distribution, known from only a small number of natural grassland fragments in South Australia. Land-use changes over the last century have converted perennial native grasslands into croplands, pastures and urban areas, causing substantial contraction of the species' range due to loss of essential habitat. Indeed, the species was thought to be extinct until its rediscovery in 1992. We develop coupled-models that link habitat suitability with stochastic demographic processes to estimate extinction risk and to explore the efficacy of potential climate adaptation options. These coupled-models offer improvements over simple bioclimatic envelope models for estimating the impacts of climate change on persistence probability. Applying this coupled-model approach to T. adelaidensis, we show that: (i) climate-driven changes will adversely impact the expected minimum abundance of populations and could cause extinction without management intervention, (ii) adding artificial burrows might enhance local population density, however, without targeted translocations this measure has a limited effect on extinction risk, (iii) managed relocations are critical for safeguarding lizard population persistence, as a sole or joint action and (iv) where to source and where to relocate animals in a program of translocations depends on the velocity, extent and nonlinearities in rates of climate-induced habitat change. These results underscore the need to consider managed relocations as part of any multifaceted plan to compensate the effects of habitat loss or shifting environmental conditions on species with low dispersal capacity. More broadly, we provide the first step towards a more comprehensive framework for integrating extinction risk, managed relocations and climate change information into range-wide conservation management.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-01-2012
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-03-2016
DOI: 10.1007/S00442-016-3617-2
Abstract: The reproduction of many species is determined by seasonally-driven resource supply. But it is difficult to quantify whether the fecundity is sensitive to short- or long-term exposure to environmental conditions such as rainfall that drive resource supply. Using 25 years of data on in idual fecundity of European female rabbits, Oryctolagus cuniculus, from semiarid Australia, we investigate the role of in idual body condition, rainfall and temperature as drivers of seasonal and long-term and population-level changes in fecundity (breeding probability, ovulation rate, embryo survival). We built distributed lag models in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to account for both immediate and time-lagged effects of climate and other environmental drivers, and possible shifts in reproduction over consecutive seasons. We show that rainfall during summer, when rabbits typically breed only rarely, increased breeding probability immediately and with time lags of up to 10 weeks. However, an earlier onset of the yearly breeding period did not result in more overall reproductive output. Better body condition was associated with an earlier onset of breeding and higher embryo survival. Breeding probability in the main breeding season declined with increased breeding activity in the preceding season and only in iduals in good body condition were able to breed late in the season. Higher temperatures reduce breeding success across seasons. We conclude that a better understanding of seasonal dynamics and plasticity (and their interplay) in reproduction will provide crucial insights into how lagomorphs are likely to respond and potentially adapt to the influence of future climate and other environmental change.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-2012
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 12-12-2012
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-10-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41559-022-01878-W
Abstract: The sustainability of coral reef fisheries is jeopardized by complex and interacting socio-ecological stressors that undermine their contribution to food and nutrition security. Climate change has emerged as one of the key stressors threatening coral reefs and their fish-associated services. How fish nutrient concentrations respond to warming oceans remains unclear but these responses are probably affected by both direct (metabolism and trophodynamics) and indirect (habitat and species range shifts) effects. Climate-driven coral habitat loss can cause changes in fish abundance and biomass, revealing potential winners and losers among major fisheries targets that can be predicted using ecological indicators and biological traits. A critical next step is to extend research focused on the quantity of available food (fish biomass) to also consider its nutritional quality, which is relevant to progress in the fields of food security and malnutrition. Biological traits are robust predictors of fish nutrient content and thus potentially indicate how climate-driven changes are expected to impact nutrient availability within future food webs on coral reefs. Here, we outline future research priorities and an anticipatory framework towards sustainable reef fisheries contributing to nutrition-sensitive food systems in a warming ocean.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-05-2013
DOI: 10.1111/DDI.12092
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-11-2008
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-06-2014
DOI: 10.1111/AEC.12160
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 19-10-2022
DOI: 10.1111/GEB.13601
Abstract: To determine the ecological processes and drivers of range collapse, population decline and eventual extinction of the steppe bison in Eurasia. Siberia. Pleistocene and Holocene. Steppe bison ( Bison priscus ). We configured 110,000 spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) of climate–human–steppe bison interactions in Siberia, which we ran at generational time steps from 50,000 years before present. We used pattern‐oriented modelling (POM) and fossil‐based inferences of distribution and demographic change of steppe bison to identify which SEPMs adequately simulated important interactions between ecological processes and biological threats. These “best models” were then used to disentangle the mechanisms that were integral in the population decline and later extinction of the steppe bison in its last stronghold in Eurasia. Our continuous reconstructions of the range and extinction dynamics of steppe bison were able to reconcile inferences of spatio‐temporal occurrence and the timing and location of extinction in Siberia based on hundreds of radiocarbon‐dated steppe bison fossils. We showed that simulating the ecological pathway to extinction for steppe bison in Siberia in the early Holocene required very specific ecological niche constraints, demographic processes and a constrained synergy of climate and human hunting dynamics during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition. Ecological processes and drivers that caused ancient population declines of species can be reconstructed at high spatio‐temporal resolutions using SEPMs and POM. Using this approach, we found that climatic change and hunting by humans are likely to have interacted with key ecological processes to cause the extinction of the steppe bison in its last refuge in Eurasia.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 02-07-2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-10-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCOMMS13158
Abstract: The two living species of bison (European and American) are among the few terrestrial megafauna to have survived the late Pleistocene extinctions. Despite the extensive bovid fossil record in Eurasia, the evolutionary history of the European bison (or wisent, Bison bonasus ) before the Holocene ( .7 thousand years ago (kya)) remains a mystery. We use complete ancient mitochondrial genomes and genome-wide nuclear DNA surveys to reveal that the wisent is the product of hybridization between the extinct steppe bison ( Bison priscus ) and ancestors of modern cattle (aurochs, Bos primigenius ) before 120 kya, and contains up to 10% aurochs genomic ancestry. Although undetected within the fossil record, ancestors of the wisent have alternated ecological dominance with steppe bison in association with major environmental shifts since at least 55 kya. Early cave artists recorded distinct morphological forms consistent with these replacement events, around the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21–18 kya).
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-05-2017
DOI: 10.1111/ECOG.03031
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-10-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41597-020-00663-3
Abstract: Paleoclimatic data are used in eco-evolutionary models to improve knowledge of biogeographical processes that drive patterns of bio ersity through time, opening windows into past climate–bio ersity dynamics. Applying these models to harmonised simulations of past and future climatic change can strengthen forecasts of bio ersity change. StableClim provides continuous estimates of climate stability from 21,000 years ago to 2100 C.E. for ocean and terrestrial realms at spatial scales that include biogeographic regions and climate zones. Climate stability is quantified using annual trends and variabilities in air temperature and precipitation, and associated signal-to-noise ratios. Thresholds of natural variability in trends in regional- and global-mean temperature allow periods in Earth’s history when climatic conditions were warming and cooling rapidly (or slowly) to be identified and climate stability to be estimated locally (grid-cell) during these periods of accelerated change. Model simulations are validated against independent paleoclimate and observational data. Projections of climatic stability, accessed through StableClim , will improve understanding of the roles of climate in shaping past, present-day and future patterns of bio ersity.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 15-09-2020
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.6705
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2019
DOI: 10.1016/J.CUB.2019.04.001
Abstract: The stability of regional climates on millennial timescales is theorised to be a primary determinant of nearby ersification [1-5]. Using simulated patterns of past temperature change at monthly timescales [6], we show that the locations of climatically stable regions are likely to have varied considerably across and within millennia during glacial-interglacial cycles of the Late Quaternary. This result has important implications for the role of regional climate stability in theories of speciation, because long-term climate refugia are typically presumed to be 'cradles' of ersity (areas of high speciation) only if they remain stable across Milankovitch climate oscillations [1-5], which operate on multi-millennial time scales [7].
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-05-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-020-16449-5
Abstract: Knowledge of global patterns of bio ersity, ranging from intraspecific genetic ersity (GD) to taxonomic and phylogenetic ersity, is essential for identifying and conserving the processes that shape the distribution of life. Yet, global patterns of GD and its drivers remain elusive. Here we assess existing bio ersity theories to explain and predict the global distribution of GD in terrestrial mammal assemblages. We find a strong positive covariation between GD and interspecific ersity, with evolutionary time, reflected in phylogenetic ersity, being the best predictor of GD. Moreover, we reveal the negative effect of past rapid climate change and the positive effect of inter-annual precipitation variability in shaping GD. Our models, explaining almost half of the variation in GD globally, uncover the importance of deep evolutionary history and past climate stability in accumulating and maintaining intraspecific ersity, and constitute a crucial step towards reducing the Wallacean shortfall for an important dimension of bio ersity.
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 02-2015
Abstract: Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits ( Oryctolagus cuniculus ) in Australia, linked to in idual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-12-2010
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 08-12-2014
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 17-12-2015
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 13-05-2013
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 27-11-2009
DOI: 10.1007/S00442-008-1217-5
Abstract: Density-dependent compensation has rarely been demonstrated in long-lived vertebrates in highly variable environments, such as the wet-dry tropics, where complex factors impact on vital rates. We used an experimental manipulation of population density in six replicated wild populations of the northern snake-necked turtle (Chelodina rugosa). We show that this species can rebound rapidly following reductions in density, and so is resilient to harvest and predation by pigs. Remarkably, in some populations, turtle abundance took as little as 1 year to recover from a strong negative perturbation (>50% experimental population reduction) in adult density. This was achieved through an increase in hatchling recruitment and survival into larger size classes. Our manipulative experiments, viewed concomitantly with previous experimental and correlative research, challenge the general perceptions that freshwater turtles universally are highly susceptible to any form of off-take and that high sub-adult and adult survival is crucial for achieving long-term population stability in freshwater turtles generally. In the case of C. rugosa, such generalities would produce overly cautious prescriptions for sustainable management.
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2013
DOI: 10.1071/ZO13074
Abstract: A set of 15 microsatellite loci was optimised for multilocus genotyping of non-invasively collected s les of Macropus antilopinus (antilopine wallaroo). Primers were combined in three PCR multiplexes in order to increase the quality of genotypes from scat s les and to allow for replication. In a screen of 104 scat s les from two populations in north-eastern Australia, three loci were found to be monomorphic while the remaining 12 loci had 2–10 alleles. Genotype frequencies for all 12 microsatellite loci from the two populations did not differ significantly from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, and there was no evidence of linkage disequilibrium. These informative markers are specifically designed for non-invasive s les and will be used to assess population structure and conservation genetics of this species in the future.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 05-08-2022
Abstract: With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely to reveal the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of bio ersity. Most research questions focused on the distribution of ersity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers and biological constraints operate at large spatiotemporal scales. However, we can encode proposed mechanisms into models, observe the patterns they produce in virtual environments, and validate these patterns against real-world data or theoretical expectations. This approach can advance understanding of generalizable mechanisms responsible for the distributions of organisms, communities, and ecosystems in space and time, advancing basic and applied science. We review recent developments in process-explicit models and how they have improved knowledge of the distribution and dynamics of life on Earth, enabling bio ersity to be better understood and managed through a deeper recognition of the processes that shape genetic, species, and ecosystem ersity.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-06-2012
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-09-2007
DOI: 10.1111/J.1365-2656.2007.01298.X
Abstract: Species that mature late, experience high levels of survival and have long generation times are more vulnerable to chronic increases in mortality than species with higher fecundity and more rapid turnover of generations. Many chelonians have low hatchling survival, slow growth, delayed sexual maturity and high subadult and adult survival. This constrains their ability to respond quickly to increases in adult mortality from harvesting or habitat alteration. In contrast, the northern snake-necked turtle Chelodina rugosa (Ogilby 1890) is fast-growing, early maturing and highly fecund relative to other turtles, and may be resilient to increased mortality. Here we provide correlative evidence spanning six study sites and three field seasons, indicating that C. rugosa is able to compensate demographically to conditions of relatively low subadult and adult survival, caused by pig Sus scrofa (Linnaeus 1758) predation and customary harvesting by humans. Recruitment and age specific fecundity tended to be greater in sites with low adult and subadult survival (and thus reduced densities of large turtles), owing to higher juvenile survival, a smaller size at onset of maturity and faster post-maturity growth. These patterns are consistent with compensatory density-dependent responses, and as such challenge the generality that high subadult and adult survival is crucial for achieving long-term population stability in long-lived vertebrates such as chelonians. We posit that long-lived species with 'fast' recruitment and a capacity for a compensatory demographic response, similar to C. rugosa, may be able to persist in the face of occasional or sustained adult harvest without inevitably threatening population viability.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2014
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2012
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-02-2015
DOI: 10.1111/ECOG.01300
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 19-05-2017
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.2995
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 30-03-2016
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-11-2016
DOI: 10.1038/BJC.2016.357
Start Date: 2018
End Date: 2020
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2013
End Date: 2017
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2014
End Date: 2018
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 09-2014
End Date: 12-2020
Amount: $770,684.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 09-2011
End Date: 11-2014
Amount: $556,800.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 01-2013
End Date: 12-2018
Amount: $575,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 06-2009
End Date: 12-2012
Amount: $521,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2010
End Date: 06-2016
Amount: $390,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 06-2018
End Date: 12-2022
Amount: $496,136.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded Activity