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In Research Link Australia (RLA), "Research Topics" refer to ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes. These topics are either sourced from ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes listed in researchers' related grants or generated by a large language model (LLM) based on their publications.
Atmospheric Sciences | Climate Change Processes | Climatology (excl. Climate Change Processes) | Physical oceanography | Meteorology | Climate change processes | Atmospheric dynamics | Atmospheric sciences | Atmospheric Dynamics | Physical Oceanography | Meteorology
Climate Change Models | Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts) | Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts) | Atmospheric Processes and Dynamics | Social Impacts of Climate Change and Variability |
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2015
DOI: 10.1175/2015BAMSSTATEOFTHECLIMATE.1
Abstract: Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2014 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-04-2017
DOI: 10.1002/MET.1654
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-09-2017
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-017-12520-2
Abstract: The Paris Agreement calls for global warming to be limited to 1.5–2 °C. For the first time, this study investigates how different regional heatwave characteristics (intensity, frequency and duration) are projected to change relative to increasing global warming thresholds. Increases in heatwave days between 4–34 extra days per season are projected per °C of global warming. Some tropical regions could experience up to 120 extra heatwave days/season if 5 °C is reached. Increases in heatwave intensity are generally 0.5–1.5 °C above a given global warming threshold, however are higher over the Mediterranean and Central Asian regions. Between warming thresholds of 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C, the return intervals of intense heatwaves reduce by 2–3 fold. Heatwave duration is projected to increase by 2–10 days/°C, with larger changes over lower latitudes. Analysis of two climate model ensembles indicate that variation in the rate of heatwave changes is dependent on physical differences between different climate models, however internal climate variability bears considerable influence on the expected range of regional heatwave changes per warming threshold. The results of this study reiterate the potential for disastrous consequences associated with regional heatwaves if global mean warming is not limited to 2 degrees.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 17-06-2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-11-2019
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 04-12-2019
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-2021
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 09-2015
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-07-2017
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001757
Abstract: We thank the Comment's authors for their considered critique of our paper. We respond to their main criticisms and hope that this discussion motivates further consideration of communication strategies for event attribution analyses.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 2018
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 21-12-2021
Abstract: Australian heatwaves have a significant impact on society. Most previous studies focus on understanding them in terms of frequency, duration, intensity, and timing. However, understanding the spatial characteristics of heatwaves, particularly those occurring in contiguous regions at the same time (here referred to as contiguous heatwaves), is still largely unexplored. Here, we analyse changes in spatial characteristics of contiguous heatwaves in Australia during 1958–2020 using observational data. Our results show that extremely large contiguous heatwaves are covering significantly larger areas and getting significantly longer during the recent period (1989/90–2019/20) compared to the historical period (1958/59–1988/89). We also investigated the association of contiguous heatwaves in Australia with interactions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) using a large multi-member ensemble of a physical climate model. We found that areal magnitude, total area, median duration, and maximum area of large and extremely large contiguous heatwaves in Australia are significantly higher (lower) during the strong El Niño (E s ), strong El Niño co-occurring with strong IOD positive (E s -IP s ), and with moderate IOD positive (E s -IP m ) (co-occurring strong La Niña with the strong IOD negative (L s -IN s )) seasons relative to the neutral seasons (where both ENSO and IOD are in neutral phase). During the E s , E s -IP m , and E s -IP s seasons, the large-scale physical mechanisms are characterised by anticyclonic highs over the southeast and cyclonic lows over the northwest of Australia, favouring the occurrence and intensification of heatwaves in Australia. These results provide insights into the driving mechanisms of contiguous heatwaves in Australia.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 16-07-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069408
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-03-2019
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 13-01-2022
Publisher: Inter-Research Science Center
Date: 24-01-2012
DOI: 10.3354/CR01046
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 13-11-2019
DOI: 10.5694/MJA2.50405
Abstract: The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change was established in 2017 and produced its first Australian national assessment in 2018. It examined 41 indicators across five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability adaptation, planning and resilience for health mitigation actions and health co-benefits economics and finance and public and political engagement. It found that, overall, Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In this report we present the 2019 update. We track progress on health and climate change in Australia across the same five broad domains and many of the same indicators as in 2018. A number of new indicators are introduced this year, including one focused on wildfire exposure, and another on engagement in health and climate change in the corporate sector. Several of the previously reported indicators are not included this year, either due to their discontinuation by the parent project, the Lancet Countdown, or because insufficient new data were available for us to meaningfully provide an update to the indicator. In a year marked by an Australian federal election in which climate change featured prominently, we find mixed progress on health and climate change in this country. There has been progress in renewable energy generation, including substantial employment increases in this sector. There has also been some progress at state and local government level. However, there continues to be no engagement on health and climate change in the Australian federal Parliament, and Australia performs poorly across many of the indicators in comparison to other developed countries for ex le, it is one of the world's largest net exporters of coal and its electricity generation from low carbon sources is low. We also find significantly increasing exposure of Australians to heatwaves and, in most states and territories, continuing elevated suicide rates at higher temperatures. We conclude that Australia remains at significant risk of declines in health due to climate change, and that substantial and sustained national action is urgently required in order to prevent this.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-2017
Abstract: The term “new normal” has been used in scientific literature and public commentary to contextualize contemporary climate events as an indicator of a changing climate due to enhanced greenhouse warming. A new normal has been used broadly but tends to be descriptive and ambiguously defined. Here we review previous studies conceptualizing this idea of a new climatological normal and argue that this term should be used cautiously and with explicit definition in order to avoid confusion. We provide a formal definition of a new climate normal relative to present based around record-breaking contemporary events and explore the timing of when such extremes become statistically normal in the future model simulations. Applying this method to the record-breaking global-average 2015 temperatures as a reference event and a suite of model climate models, we determine that 2015 global annual-average temperatures will be the new normal by 2040 in all emissions scenarios. At the regional level, a new normal can be delayed through aggressive greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Using this specific case study to investigate a climatological new normal, our approach demonstrates the greater value of the concept of a climatological new normal for understanding and communicating climate change when the term is explicitly defined. This approach moves us one step closer to understanding how current extremes will change in the future in a warming world.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-04-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067448
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 20-11-2016
DOI: 10.1029/2019JD030665
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-2009
Abstract: A comparison of three global reanalyses is conducted based on probability density functions of daily maximum and minimum temperature at 2-m and 1000-hPa levels. The three reanalyses compare very favorably in both maximum and minimum temperatures at 1000 hPa, in both the mean and the 99.7th and 0.3rd percentiles of both quantities in most regions. At 2 m, there are large and widespread differences in the mean and 99.7th percentiles in maximum temperature between the three reanalyses over land commonly exceeding ±5°C and regionally exceeding ±10°C. The 2-m minimum temperatures compare unfavorably between the three reanalyses over virtually all continental surfaces with differences exceeding ±10°C over widespread areas. It is concluded that the three reanalyses are generally interchangeable in 1000-hPa temperatures. The three reanalyses of 2-m temperatures are very different owing to the methods used to diagnose these quantities. At this time, the probability distribution functions of the 2-m temperatures from the three reanalyses are sufficiently different that either the 2-m air temperatures should not be used or all three products should be used independently in any application and the differences highlighted.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 23-11-2020
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001902
Abstract: Historical simulations of models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated over 10 Australian regions for their performance in simulating extreme temperatures, among which three models with initial‐condition large ensembles (LEs) are used to estimate the effects of internal variability. Based on two observational data sets, the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures (BEST), we first analyze the models' abilities in simulating the probability distributions of daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN), followed by the spatial patterns and temporal variations of the extreme indices, as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Overall, the CMIP6 models are comparable to CMIP5, with modest improvements shown in CMIP6. Compared to CMIP5, the CMIP6 ensemble tends to have narrower interquartile model ranges for some cold extremes, as well as narrower ensemble ranges in temporal trends for most indices. Over southeast, tropical, and southern regions, both CMIP ensembles generally exhibit relatively large deficiencies in simulating temperature extremes. We also confirm that internal variability can affect the trends of the extremes and there is uncertainty in representing the irreducible variability among different LEs in CMIP6. Furthermore, the evaluation based on Perkins' skill score (PSS) and root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) in the three LEs does not directly correlate with the ranges of the trends for extreme temperatures. The findings of this study are useful in informing and interpreting future projections of temperature‐related extremes over Australia.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-04-2016
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-01-2022
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 2008
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.1612
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 24-01-2011
Abstract: The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10,000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that global warming must be limited to °C, current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming. The “Global 200” comprises 238 ecoregions of exceptional bio ersity [Olson DM, Dinerstein E (2002) Ann Mo Bot Gard 89:199–224]. We assess the likelihood that, by 2070, these iconic ecoregions will regularly experience monthly climatic conditions that were extreme in 1961–1990. Using realizations from climate model ensembles, we show that up to 86% of terrestrial and 83% of freshwater ecoregions will be exposed to average monthly temperature patterns SDs (2σ) of the 1961–1990 baseline, including 82% of critically endangered ecoregions. The entire range of 89 ecoregions will experience extreme monthly temperatures with a local warming of °C. Tropical and subtropical ecoregions, and mangroves, face extreme conditions earliest, some with °C warming. In contrast, few ecoregions within Boreal Forests and Tundra biomes will experience such extremes this century. On average, precipitation regimes do not exceed 2σ of the baseline period, although considerable variability exists across the climate realizations. Further, the strength of the correlation between seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over numerous ecoregions. These results suggest many Global 200 ecoregions may be under substantial climatic stress by 2100.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2016
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2009
DOI: 10.1029/2009GL037293
Publisher: Inderscience Publishers
Date: 2007
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 12-10-2017
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-2007
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4253.1
Abstract: The coupled climate models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are evaluated. The evaluation is focused on 12 regions of Australia for the daily simulation of precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature. The evaluation is based on probability density functions and a simple quantitative measure of how well each climate model can capture the observed probability density functions for each variable and each region is introduced. Across all three variables, the coupled climate models perform better than expected. Precipitation is simulated reasonably by most and very well by a small number of models, although the problem with excessive drizzle is apparent in most models. Averaged over Australia, 3 of the 14 climate models capture more than 80% of the observed probability density functions for precipitation. Minimum temperature is simulated well, with 10 of the 13 climate models capturing more than 80% of the observed probability density functions. Maximum temperature is also reasonably simulated with 6 of 10 climate models capturing more than 80% of the observed probability density functions. An overall ranking of the climate models, for each of precipitation, maximum, and minimum temperatures, and averaged over these three variables, is presented. Those climate models that are skillful over Australia are identified, providing guidance on those climate models that should be used in impacts assessments where those impacts are based on precipitation or temperature. These results have no bearing on how well these models work elsewhere, but the methodology is potentially useful in assessing which of the many climate models should be used by impacts groups.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 24-08-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023592
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 18-03-2022
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 15-02-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021JD036301
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2008
DOI: 10.1175/2008EI260.1
Abstract: Daily data from climate models submitted to the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are compared with daily data from observations over Australia by measuring the overlap of the probability density functions (PDFs). The capacity of these models to simulate maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation is assessed. The resulting skill score is then used to exclude models with relatively poor skill region by region over Australia. The remaining s le of coupled climate models is then used to determine the seasonal changes in these three variables under a high- (A2) and low- (B1) emission scenario for 2050 and 2100. The authors demonstrate that some projected phenomena, such as the projected drying over southwest Western Australia, are robust and not caused by the inclusion of some weak models in earlier assessments. Some other results, such as the projected change in the monsoon, are more consistent among the good climate models. Consistent with earlier work, a consistent pattern of mean warming is identified in the projections. The amount of warming in the 99.7th percentile is not dramatically higher than the warming in the mean. However, while the mean warming is generally least in the south, the amount of warming in the 99.7th percentile is substantially higher along the southern coast of Australia. This is due to a coupling of the temperature response with reduced rainfall, which causes drying and allows extreme maximum temperatures to increase dramatically. The authors show that, in general, the amount of rainfall is projected to change relatively little, but the frequency of rainfall decreases and the intensity of rainfall at the upper tail of the distribution increases. However, the scale of the increase in extreme rainfall is not large on the time scales analyzed here. The range in projected temperature changes among those climate models with skill in simulating the observations is at least twice as large for the 99.7th/0.3rd percentiles as for the mean. For rainfall, the range among the good models is of order 10 times greater in the 99.7th percentile than in the mean. Since the impact of changes in extremes is increasingly recognized as societally important, this result strongly limits the use of climate model data to explore sectors that are vulnerable to extremes. This suggests an evaluation strategy that focuses on model capacity to simulate whole PDFs since capacity to simulate the mean is a necessary but insufficient criterion for determining a model’s value for future projection.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 15-05-2014
DOI: 10.1111/JVS.12190
Publisher: The Sax Institute
Date: 2018
DOI: 10.17061/PHRP2841825
Abstract: By definition, extreme events are rare. Socio-economic and human systems have not experienced adverse extreme events frequently enough to develop resilience, whether this be physical, economical or structural. Humans are vulnerable to extreme events because of our physiology and because we build thresholds into our socio-economic and human health systems. When these thresholds are exceeded the consequences can be devastating. This perspective will discuss changes in heat, drought and heavy rainfall extremes in the context of climate change.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-04-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-018-03732-9
Abstract: Heatwaves are important climatic extremes in atmospheric and oceanic systems that can have devastating and long-term impacts on ecosystems, with subsequent socioeconomic consequences. Recent prominent marine heatwaves have attracted considerable scientific and public interest. Despite this, a comprehensive assessment of how these ocean temperature extremes have been changing globally is missing. Using a range of ocean temperature data including global records of daily satellite observations, daily in situ measurements and gridded monthly in situ-based data sets, we identify significant increases in marine heatwaves over the past century. We find that from 1925 to 2016, global average marine heatwave frequency and duration increased by 34% and 17%, respectively, resulting in a 54% increase in annual marine heatwave days globally. Importantly, these trends can largely be explained by increases in mean ocean temperatures, suggesting that we can expect further increases in marine heatwave days under continued global warming.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 29-07-2014
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00092.1
Abstract: Extremes such as summer heat waves and winter warm spells have a significant impact on the climate of Australia, with many regions experiencing an increase in the frequency and duration of these events since the mid-twentieth century. With the availability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, projected changes in heat waves and warm spells are investigated across Australia for two future emission scenarios. For the historical period encompassing the late twentieth century (1950–2005) an ensemble mean of 15 models is able to broadly capture the observed spatial distribution in the frequency and duration of summer heat waves, despite overestimating these metrics along coastal regions. The models achieve a better comparison to observations in their simulation of the temperature anomaly of the hottest heat waves. By the end of the twenty-first century, the model ensemble mean projects the largest increase in summer heat wave frequency and duration to occur across northern tropical regions, while projecting an increase of ~3°C in the maximum temperature of the hottest southern Australian heat waves. Model consensus suggests that future winter warm spells will increase in frequency and duration at a greater rate than summer heat waves, and that the hottest events will become increasingly hotter for both seasons by century’s end. Even when referenced to a warming mean state, increases in the temperature of the hottest events are projected for southern Australia. Results also suggest that following a strong mitigation pathway in the future is more effective in reducing the frequency and duration of heat waves and warm spells in the southern regions compared to the northern tropical regions.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2013
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1
Abstract: Despite their adverse impacts, definitions and measurements of heat waves are ambiguous and inconsistent, generally being endemic to only the group affected, or the respective study reporting the analysis. The present study addresses this issue by employing a set of three heat wave definitions, derived from surveying heat-related indices in the climate science literature. The definitions include three or more consecutive days above one of the following: the 90th percentile for maximum temperature, the 90th percentile for minimum temperature, and positive extreme heat factor (EHF) conditions. Additionally, each index is studied using a multiaspect framework measuring heat wave number, duration, participating days, and the peak and mean magnitudes. Observed climatologies and trends computed by Sen's Kendall slope estimator are presented for the Australian continent for two time periods (1951–2008 and 1971–2008). Trends in all aspects and definitions are smaller in magnitude but more significant for 1951–2008 than for 1971–2008. Considerable similarities exist in trends of the yearly number of days participating in a heat wave and yearly heat wave frequency, suggesting that the number of available heat wave days drives the number of events. Larger trends in the hottest part of a heat wave suggest that heat wave intensity is increasing faster than the mean magnitude. Although the direct results of this study cannot be inferred for other regions, the methodology has been designed as such that it is widely applicable. Furthermore, it includes a range of definitions that may be useful for a wide range of systems impacted by heat waves.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 09-2022
Abstract: Human-caused climate changes are increasing the risk of dangerous wildfires in many regions of the world. There are multiple, compounding aspects of climate change that are increasing fire risk, including large-scale climate changes driving hotter and drier conditions that are generally well observed and predicted. However, changes in synoptic-scale processes that can exacerbate dangerous fire weather and promote extreme pyroconvective events are often not well known in historical observations and are poorly represented in climate models, making it difficult to fully quantify and anticipate changing fire risk. In this study, we statistically test the association between synoptic-scale cold front passage and large fires in southeast Australia during Australia’s 2019–2020 ‘Black Summer’ fire disaster, and analyse daily gridded temperature data to detect long-term changes in the intensity and frequency of strong cold fronts over southeast Australia. We demonstrate that the passage of cold fronts over southeast Australia significantly increased the likelihood of large fire days during the entire Black Summer fire season. Additionally, the intensity and frequency of strong cold front events were anomalously high during the Black Summer, and this is part of a long-term significant increase in the intensity and frequency of strong cold fronts since the 1950s. These changes in fire-promoting cold front activity are expected to imminently emerge above the range of historical experience across large areas of southeast Australia if current trends continue. Our results provide new insights into a previously poorly constrained contributor to fire risk in southeast Australia, highlighting the potential of synoptic-scale weather changes to compound previously documented broad-scale climate changes in intensifying future forest fire risk.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-10-2014
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00098.1
Abstract: Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with southern Australian heat waves are examined using phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Accompanying work analyzing modeled heat wave statistics for Australia finds substantial increases in the frequency, duration, and temperature of heat waves by the end of the twenty-first century. This study assesses the ability of CMIP5 models to simulate the synoptic and oceanic conditions associated with southern Australian heat waves, and examines how the classical atmospheric setup associated with heat waves is projected to change in response to mean-state warming. To achieve this, near-surface temperature, mean sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature (SST) from the historical and high-emission simulations are analyzed. CMIP5 models are found to represent the synoptic setup associated with heat waves well, despite showing greater variation in simulating SST anomalies. The models project a weakening of the pressure couplet associated with future southern Australian heat waves, suggesting that even a non-classical synoptic setup is able to generate more frequent heat waves in a warmer world. A future poleward shift and strengthening of heat wave–inducing anticyclones is confirmed using a tracking scheme applied to model projections. Model consensus implies that while anticyclones associated with the hottest future southern Australian heat waves will be more intense and originate farther poleward, a greater proportion of heat waves occur in association with a weaker synoptic setup that, when combined with warmer mean-state temperatures, gives rise to more future heat waves.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-04-2013
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.3500
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 30-11-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF003118
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-05-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073231
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002645
Abstract: This study focuses on the projections and time of emergence (TOE) for temperature extremes over Australian regions in the phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models. The model outputs are based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the Tier 1 experiments (i.e., SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) in the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), which is compared with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in CMIP5 (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Furthermore, two large ensembles (LEs) in CMIP6 are used to investigate the effects of internal variability on the projected changes and TOE. As shown in the temporal evolution and spatial distribution, the strongest warming levels are projected under the highest future scenario and the changes for some extremes follow a “warm‐get‐warmer” pattern over Australia. Over subregions, tropical Australia usually shows the highest warming. Compared to the RCPs in CMIP5, the multi‐model medians in SSPs are higher for some indices and commonly exhibit wider spreads, likely related to the different forcings and higher climate sensitivity in a subset of the CMIP6 models. Based on a signal‐to‐noise framework, we confirm that the emergence patterns differ greatly for different extreme indices and the large uncertainty in TOE can result from the inter‐model ranges of both signal and noise, for which internal variability contributes to the determination of the signal. We further demonstrate that the internally generated variations influence the noise. Our findings can provide useful information for mitigation strategies and adaptation planning over Australia.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-11-2008
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 26-01-2022
Abstract: Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding extreme weather attribution can become crucial when considering the events’ impacts. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) method, useful in extreme weather attribution research, has a very specific interpretation concerning a class of events, and there is potential to misinterpret results from weather event analyses as being applicable to specific events and their impact outcomes. Using two case studies of meteorological extremes and their impacts, we argue that FAR is not generally appropriate when estimating the magnitude of the anthropogenic signal behind a specific impact. Attribution assessments on impacts should always be carried out in addition to assessment of the associated meteorological event, since it cannot be assumed that the anthropogenic signal behind the weather is equivalent to the signal behind the impact because of lags and nonlinearities in the processes through which the impact system reacts to weather. Whilst there are situations where employing FAR to understand the climate change signal behind a class of impacts is useful (e.g. ‘system breaking’ events), more useful results will generally be produced if attribution questions on specific impacts are reframed to focus on changes in the impact return value and magnitude across large s les of factual and counterfactual climate model and impact simulations. We advocate for constant interdisciplinary collaboration as essential for effective and robust impact attribution assessments.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-07-2017
DOI: 10.1038/NCOMMS16101
Abstract: The Tasman Sea off southeast Australia exhibited its longest and most intense marine heatwave ever recorded in 2015/16. Here we report on several inter-related aspects of this event: observed characteristics, physical drivers, ecological impacts and the role of climate change. This marine heatwave lasted for 251 days reaching a maximum intensity of 2.9 °C above climatology. The anomalous warming is dominated by anomalous convergence of heat linked to the southward flowing East Australian Current. Ecosystem impacts range from new disease outbreaks in farmed shellfish, mortality of wild molluscs and out-of-range species observations. Global climate models indicate it is very likely to be that the occurrence of an extreme warming event of this duration or intensity in this region is respectively ≥330 times and ≥6.8 times as likely to be due to the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Climate projections indicate that event likelihoods will increase in the future, due to increasing anthropogenic influences.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 2018
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2017
DOI: 10.1175/2017BAMSSTATEOFTHECLIMATE.1
Abstract: Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2017 is a low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 14-04-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2016JD026256
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001273
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2017
Abstract: Understanding the physical drivers of heat waves is essential for improving short-term forecasts of in idual events and long-term projections of heat waves under climate change. This study provides the first analysis of the influence of the large-scale circulation on Australian heat waves, conditional on the land surface conditions. Circulation types, sourced from reanalysis, are used to characterize the different large-scale circulation patterns that drive heat wave events across Australia. The importance of horizontal temperature advection is illustrated in these circulation patterns, and the pattern occurrence frequency is shown to reorganize through different modes of climate variability. It is further shown that the relative likelihood of a particular synoptic situation being associated with a heat wave is strongly modulated by the localized partitioning of available energy between surface sensible and latent heat fluxes (as measured through evaporative fraction) in many regions in reanalysis data. In particular, a several-fold increase in the likelihood of heat wave day occurrence is found during days of reduced evaporative fraction under favorable circulation conditions. The atmospheric circulation and land surface conditions linked to heat waves in reanalysis were then examined in the context of CMIP5 climate model projections. Large uncertainty was found to exist for many regions, especially in terms of the direction of future land surface changes and in terms of the magnitude of atmospheric circulation changes. Efforts to constrain uncertainty in both atmospheric and land surface processes in climate models, while challenging, should translate to more robust regional projections of heat waves.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2016
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-2013
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-01-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41612-021-00224-4
Abstract: While compound weather and climate events (CEs) can lead to significant socioeconomic consequences, their response to climate change is mostly unexplored. We report the first multi-model assessment of future changes in return periods for the co-occurrence of heatwaves and drought, and extreme winds and precipitation based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and three emission scenarios. Extreme winds and precipitation CEs occur more frequently in many regions, particularly under higher emissions. Heatwaves and drought occur more frequently everywhere under all emission scenarios examined. For each CMIP6 model, we derive a skill score for simulating CEs. Models with higher skill in simulating historical CEs project smaller increases in the number of heatwaves and drought in Eurasia, but larger numbers of strong winds and heavy precipitation CEs everywhere for all emission scenarios. This result is partly masked if the whole CMIP6 ensemble is used, pointing to the considerable value in further improvements in climate models.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 21-03-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2016JD025878
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001924
Abstract: Heatwaves are an accustomed extreme event of the Australian climate, which can cause catastrophic impacts on human health, agriculture, and urban and natural systems. We have analyzed the trends in Australia‐wide heatwave metrics (frequency, duration, intensity, number, cumulative magnitude, timing, and season duration) across 69 extended summer seasons (i.e., from November‐1951 to March‐2020). Our findings not only emphasize that heatwaves are becoming hotter, longer, and more frequent, but also signify that they are occurring with excess heat, commencing much earlier, and expanding their season over many parts of Australia in recent decades. The Australian heatwave trends have strengthened since last observed Australian study was conducted. We also investigated the heatwave and severe heatwave trends at a local city‐scale using three different observational products (AWAP and SILO gridded datasets and ACORN_SATV2 station data) over selected time periods (1911–2019, 1911–1964, and 1965–2019). Results suggest that heatwave trends are noticeably different amongst the three datasets. However, the results highlight that the severe heatwave cumulative magnitude and their season duration have been increasing significantly in recent decades over Australia's southern coastal cities (like Melbourne and Adelaide). The climatological mean of the most heatwave and severe heatwave metrics is substantially higher in recent decades compared to earlier periods across all the cities considered. The findings of our study have significant implications for the development of advanced heatwave planning and adaptation strategies.
Publisher: Inter-Research Science Center
Date: 20-10-2011
DOI: 10.3354/CR01028
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 27-10-2012
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053361
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-12-2016
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.4971
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2016
DOI: 10.1175/2016BAMSSTATEOFTHECLIMATE.1
Abstract: Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2016 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 18-07-2019
Abstract: Abstract. Extreme temperature and precipitation events occurring in Australia in recent decades have caused significant socio-economic and environmental impacts, and thus determining the factors contributing to these extremes is an active area of research. Many recently occurring record-breaking temperature and rainfall events have now been examined from an extreme event attribution (EEA) perspective. This paper describes a set of studies that have examined the causes of extreme climate events using various general circulation models (GCMs), presenting a comprehensive methodology for GCM-based attribution of extremes of temperature and precipitation observed on large spatial and temporal scales in Australia. First, we review how Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models have been used to examine the changing odds of observed extremes. Second, we review how a large perturbed initial condition ensemble of a single climate model (CESM) has been used to quantitatively examine the changing characteristics of Australian heat extremes. For each approach, methodological details and applications are provided and limitations highlighted. The conclusions of this methodological review discuss the limitations and uncertainties associated with this approach and identify key unexplored applications of GCM-based attribution of extremes. Ideally, this information will be useful for the application of the described extreme event attribution approaches elsewhere.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-03-2016
DOI: 10.1038/SREP23418
Abstract: Stomatal conductance links plant water use and carbon uptake and is a critical process for the land surface component of climate models. However, stomatal conductance schemes commonly assume that all vegetation with the same photosynthetic pathway use identical plant water use strategies whereas observations indicate otherwise. Here, we implement a new stomatal scheme derived from optimal stomatal theory and constrained by a recent global synthesis of stomatal conductance measurements from 314 species, across 56 field sites. Using this new stomatal scheme, within a global climate model, subtantially increases the intensity of future heatwaves across Northern Eurasia. This indicates that our climate model has previously been under-predicting heatwave intensity. Our results have widespread implications for other climate models, many of which do not account for differences in stomatal water-use across different plant functional types and hence, are also likely under projecting heatwave intensity in the future.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-01-2016
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-06-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-019-10206-Z
Abstract: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can cause devastating impacts to marine life. Despite the serious consequences of MHWs, our understanding of their drivers is largely based on isolated case studies rather than any systematic unifying assessment. Here we provide the first global assessment under a consistent framework by combining a confidence assessment of the historical refereed literature from 1950 to February 2016, together with the analysis of MHWs determined from daily satellite sea surface temperatures from 1982–2016, to identify the important local processes, large-scale climate modes and teleconnections that are associated with MHWs regionally. Clear patterns emerge, including coherent relationships between enhanced or suppressed MHW occurrences with the dominant climate modes across most regions of the globe – an important exception being western boundary current regions where reports of MHW events are few and ocean-climate relationships are complex. These results provide a global baseline for future MHW process and prediction studies.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 28-10-2013
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-11-2016
DOI: 10.1038/SREP36369
Abstract: Australia regularly experiences disasters triggered by natural hazards and New South Wales (NSW) the most populous State is no exception. To date, no publically available spatial and temporal analyses of disaster declarations triggered by hazards (specifically, bushfires, floods and storms) in NSW have been undertaken and no studies have explored the relationship between disaster occurrence and socio-economic disadvantage. We source, collate and analyse data about bushfire, flood and storm disaster declarations between 2004 and 2014. Floods resulted in the most frequent type of disaster declaration. The greatest number of disaster declarations occurred in 2012–2013. Whilst no significant Spearman’s correlation exists between bushfire, flood and storm disaster declarations and the strength of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, we observe that bushfire disaster declarations were much more common during El Niño, and flood disaster declarations were five times more common during La Niña phases. We identify a spatial cluster or ‘hot spot’ of disaster declarations in the northeast of the State that is also spatially coincident with 43% of the most socio-economically disadvantaged Local Government Areas in NSW. The results have implications for disaster risk management in the State.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-02-2014
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.3927
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 14-02-2019
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 27-05-2022
Abstract: Heatwaves are Australia’s deadliest natural hazard. Anthropogenic climate change has increased the intensity, frequency and duration of heatwaves over Australia in the past several decades and these trends are projected to worsen in the future. Despite the strong knowledge of heatwave characteristics and their projected changes, there remains a gap in understanding how the Australian population will be exposed to future heatwaves. This study estimates changes in future exposure to heatwaves over Australia. We find that both for continental Australia and its capital cities, the trends in exposure are not projected to increase, but accelerate in the future. For RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP8.5-SSP5 scenarios, the mean exposure to heatwaves in Australia is projected to increase by ∼29 and ∼42 times by the end of 21st century. Sydney, Melbourne, and Adelaide are the major cities where the population is most exposed to future heatwaves, with this exposure projected to increase by 52, 61, and 56 times respectively under the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario. The results demonstrate that anthropogenic climate change is the key contributor (over 95%) in enhancing future heatwave exposure and population change on its own plays a relatively minor role (less than 5%). The results of this study are crucial for planning where adaptation measures might be necessary to protect large group of vulnerable Australians to future heatwave exposure.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 18-08-2022
Abstract: Efforts to assess risks to the financial system associated with climate change are growing. These commonly combine the use of integrated assessment models to obtain possible changes in global mean temperature (GMT) and then use coupled climate models to map those changes onto finer spatial scales to estimate changes in other variables. Other methods use data mined from ‘ensembles of opportunity’ such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Several challenges with current approaches have been identified. Here, we focus on demonstrating the issues inherent in applying global ‘top-down’ climate scenarios to explore financial risks at geographical scales of relevance to financial institutions (e.g. city-scale). We use data mined from the CMIP to determine the degree to which estimates of GMT can be used to estimate changes in the annual extremes of temperature and rainfall, two compound events (heatwaves and drought, and extreme rain and strong winds), and whether the emission scenario provides insights into the change in the 20, 50 and 100 year return values for temperature and rainfall. We show that GMT provides little insight on how acute risks likely material to the financial sector (‘material extremes’) will change at a city-scale. We conclude that ‘top-down’ approaches are likely to be flawed when applied at a granular scale, and that there are risks in employing the approaches used by, for ex le, the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System. Most fundamental, uncertainty associated with projections of future climate extremes must be propagated through to estimating risk. We strongly encourage a review of existing top-down approaches before they develop into de facto standards and note that existing approaches that use a ‘bottom-up’ strategy (e.g. catastrophe modelling and storylines) are more likely to enable a robust assessment of material risk.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-12-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2019
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-06-2014
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 19-11-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL095161
Abstract: Heatwave frequency, duration and intensity has increased since the 1950s, a trend likely to continue with anthropogenic climate change. Although climate model projections are an important source of information on how heatwaves and other climate extremes may evolve with climate change it is necessary to understand whether climate models are able to adequately reproduce historical statistics of these events. We provide the first global evaluation of CMIP6 models to characterize heatwave characteristics between 1950 and 2014. Further, we also include a global heatwave evaluation of the CMIP5 models, as no study currently exists. Our results demonstrate that both ensembles underestimate mean heatwave frequency with region‐dependent biases for mean heatwave duration, intensity, and cumulative heat. Comparisons between CMIP5 and CMIP6 show that improvements in skill for the heatwave metrics evaluated here are marginal, suggesting that future improvements in simulating heatwaves may only be possible with significant advances in climate modeling capabilities.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 03-11-2019
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-04-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL081608
No related organisations have been discovered for Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick.
Start Date: 03-2014
End Date: 03-2017
Amount: $394,299.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 01-2018
End Date: 09-2023
Amount: $686,491.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 02-2024
End Date: 01-2030
Amount: $35,000,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 08-2017
End Date: 12-2024
Amount: $30,050,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
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