ORCID Profile
0000-0001-7755-2338
Current Organisation
University of Queensland
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Environmental Science and Management | Conservation and Biodiversity | Environmental Management | Ecosystem Function | Community Ecology | Ecological Applications | Environment Policy | Environmental Management And Rehabilitation | Wildlife And Habitat Management | Conservation | Agricultural Economics | Ecological Impacts of Climate Change | Invasive Species Ecology | Natural Resource Management | Environmental Monitoring | Environmental Rehabilitation (excl. Bioremediation) |
Ecosystem Assessment and Management at Regional or Larger Scales | Remnant Vegetation and Protected Conservation Areas at Regional or Larger Scales | Ecosystem Assessment and Management not elsewhere classified | Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity at Regional or Larger Scales | Farmland, Arable Cropland and Permanent Cropland Land Management | Farmland, Arable Cropland and Permanent Cropland Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity | Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change | Environmental and resource evaluation not elsewhere classified | Climate change | Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity of environments not elsewhere classified | Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species not elsewhere classified | Rehabilitation of Degraded Farmland, Arable Cropland and Permanent Cropland Environments | Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences | Mining Land and Water Management | Global climate change adaptation measures | Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Mining Environments
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-11-2018
DOI: 10.1002/EAP.1811
Abstract: Reintroducing a species to an ecosystem can have significant impacts on the recipient ecological community. Although reintroductions can have striking and positive outcomes, they also carry risks many well-intentioned conservation actions have had surprising and unsatisfactory outcomes. A range of network-based mathematical methods has been developed to make quantitative predictions of how communities will respond to management interventions. These methods are based on the limited knowledge of which species interact with each other and in what way. However, expert knowledge isn't perfect and can only take models so far. Fortunately, other types of data, such as abundance time series, is often available, but, to date, no quantitative method exists to integrate these various data types into these models, allowing more precise ecosystem-wide predictions. In this paper, we develop mathematical methods that combine time-series data of multiple species with knowledge of species interactions and we apply it to proposed reintroductions at Booderee National Park in Australia. There have been large fluctuations in species abundances at Booderee National Park in recent history, following intense feral fox (Vulpes vulpes) control, including the local extinction of the greater glider (Petauroides volans). These fluctuations can provide information about the system isn't readily obtained from a stable system, and we use them to inform models that we then use to predict potential outcomes of eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) and long-nosed potoroo (Potorous tridactylus) reintroductions. One of the key species of conservation concern in the park is the Eastern Bristlebird (Dasyornis brachypterus), and we find that long-nosed potoroo introduction would have very little impact on the Eastern Bristlebird population, while the eastern quoll introduction increased the likelihood of Eastern Bristlebird decline, although that depends on the strength and form of any possible interaction.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2013
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-03-2014
DOI: 10.1111/DDI.12195
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-01-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2020
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 19-07-2022
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.15769
Abstract: Most of Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil and can be released as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) when disturbed. Although humans are known to exacerbate soil CO 2 emissions through land‐use change, we know little about the global carbon footprint of invasive species. We predict the soil area disturbed and resulting CO 2 emissions from wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ), a pervasive human‐spread vertebrate that uproots soil. We do this using models of wild pig population density, soil damage, and their effect on soil carbon emissions. Our models suggest that wild pigs are uprooting a median area of 36,214 km 2 (mean of 123,517 km 2 ) in their non‐native range, with a 95% prediction interval (PI) of 14,208 km 2 –634,238 km 2 . This soil disturbance results in median emissions of 4.9 million metric tonnes (MMT) CO 2 per year (equivalent to 1.1 million passenger vehicles or 0.4% of annual emissions from land use, land‐use change, and forestry mean of 16.7 MMT) but that it is highly uncertain (95% PI, 0.3–94 MMT CO 2 ) due to variability in wild pig density and soil dynamics. This uncertainty points to an urgent need for more research on the contribution of wild pigs to soil damage, not only for the reduction of anthropogenically related carbon emissions, but also for co‐benefits to bio ersity and food security that are crucial for sustainable development.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-2018
DOI: 10.1111/BRV.12344
Abstract: Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 10-07-2023
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-3112859/V1
Abstract: Seaweed farming is promoted as a facet of the Blue Economy that may provide food, support local livelihoods, bolster marine bio ersity, and sequester carbon. While the potential for each of these benefits is often studied in isolation, here we explore the potential for ‘holistic’ management, which realizes all four benefits simultaneously. Applying a stock and flow model to different environmental and socio- economic scenarios, we simulate ten years of operations on a one-hectare kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) farm. We explore trade-offs among the food, livelihoods, marine bio ersity, and carbon sequestration benefits of each scenario to identify the management conditions under which holistic seaweed farming can be achieved. Our results demonstrate that holistic seaweed farming is possible under many – but not all – scenarios, and that holistic management is distinct from management that prioritises maximising any single benefit, frequently requiring a reduction in financial benefits to maintain others. Proper farm placement and robust management in marine environments will be critical for seaweed industries to support multiple sustainable development objectives at once.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-05-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3041
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-2010
DOI: 10.1890/09-0647.1
Abstract: Adaptive management has a long history in the natural resource management literature, but despite this, few practitioners have developed adaptive strategies to conserve threatened species. Active adaptive management provides a framework for valuing learning by measuring the degree to which it improves long-run management outcomes. The challenge of an active adaptive approach is to find the correct balance between gaining knowledge to improve management in the future and achieving the best short-term outcome based on current knowledge. We develop and analyze a framework for active adaptive management of a threatened species. Our case study concerns a novel facial tumor disease affecting the Australian threatened species Sarcophilus harrisii: the Tasmanian devil. We use stochastic dynamic programming with Bayesian updating to identify the management strategy that maximizes the Tasmanian devil population growth rate, taking into account improvements to management through learning to better understand disease latency and the relative effectiveness of three competing management options. Exactly which management action we choose each year is driven by the credibility of competing hypotheses about disease latency and by the population growth rate predicted by each hypothesis under the competing management actions. We discover that the optimal combination of management actions depends on the number of sites available and the time remaining to implement management. Our approach to active adaptive management provides a framework to identify the optimal amount of effort to invest in learning to achieve long-run conservation objectives.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-12-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2017
DOI: 10.1016/J.TREE.2016.10.011
Abstract: Managing ecosystems to provide ecosystem services in the face of global change is a pressing challenge for policy and science. Predicting how alternative management actions and changing future conditions will alter services is complicated by interactions among components in ecological and socioeconomic systems. Failure to understand those interactions can lead to detrimental outcomes from management decisions. Network theory that integrates ecological and socioeconomic systems may provide a path to meeting this challenge. While network theory offers promising approaches to examine ecosystem services, few studies have identified how to operationalize networks for managing and assessing erse ecosystem services. We propose a framework for how to use networks to assess how drivers and management actions will directly and indirectly alter ecosystem services.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 16-10-2013
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-09-2023
DOI: 10.1002/PAN3.10544
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-08-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-019-11890-7
Abstract: Ecological systems are made up of complex and often unknown interactions and feedbacks. Uncovering these interactions and feedbacks among species, ecosystem functions, and ecosystem services is challenging, costly, and time-consuming. Here, we ask: for which ecosystem features does resolving the uncertainty about the feedbacks from ecosystem function to species improve management outcomes? We develop a dynamic value of information analysis for risk-neutral and risk-prone managers on motif ecosystems and explore the influence of five ecological features. We find that learning the feedbacks from ecosystem function to species does not improve management outcomes for maximising bio ersity, yet learning which species benefit from an ecosystem function improves management outcomes for ecosystem services by up to 25% for risk-neutral managers and 231% for risk-prone managers. Our general approach provides useful guidance for managers and researchers on when learning feedbacks from ecosystem function to species can improve management outcomes for multiple conservation objectives.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-11-2022
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.15992
Abstract: Invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofa) have been spread by humans outside of their native range and are now established on every continent except Antarctica. Through their uprooting of soil, they affect societal and environmental values. Our recent article explored another threat from their soil disturbance: greenhouse gas emissions (O'Bryan et al., Global Change Biology, 2021). In response to our paper, Don (Global Change Biology, 2021) claims there is no threat to global soil carbon stocks by wild pigs. While we did not investigate soil carbon stocks, we examine uncertainties regarding soil carbon emissions from wild pig uprooting and their implications for management and future research.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 28-06-2018
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-07-2005
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 28-01-2022
DOI: 10.1111/COBI.13868
Abstract: Bio ersity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science , decision theory , decision analysis , structured decision‐making , and decision‐support tools . Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade‐offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid‐prototyping approach. At each step, decision‐support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision‐support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision‐support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 02-10-2008
DOI: 10.1111/J.1461-0248.2008.01226.X
Abstract: Land acquisition is a common approach to bio ersity conservation but is typically subject to property availability on the public market. Consequently, conservation plans are often unable to be implemented as intended. When properties come on the market, conservation agencies must make a choice: purchase immediately, often without a detailed knowledge of its bio ersity value survey the parcel and accept the risk that it may be removed from the market during this process or not purchase and hope a better parcel comes on the market at a later date. We describe both an optimal method, using stochastic dynamic programming, and a simple rule of thumb for making such decisions. The solutions to this problem illustrate how optimal conservation is necessarily dynamic and requires explicit consideration of both the time period allowed for implementation and the availability of properties.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2011
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2016
DOI: 10.1016/J.TPB.2016.02.001
Abstract: Increasing the colonization rate of metapopulations can improve persistence, but can also increase exposure to threats. To make good decisions, managers must understand whether increased colonization is beneficial or detrimental to metapopulation persistence. While a number of studies have examined interactions between metapopulations, colonization, and threats, they have assumed that threat dynamics respond linearly to changes in colonization. Here, we determined when to increase colonization while explicitly accounting for non-linear dependencies between a metapopulation and its threats. We developed patch occupancy metapopulation models for species susceptible to abiotic, generalist, and specialist threats and modeled the total derivative of the equilibrium proportion of patches occupied by each metapopulation with respect to the colonization rate. By using the total derivative, we developed a rule for determining when to increase metapopulation colonization. This rule was applied to a simulated metapopulation where the dynamics of each threat responded to increased colonization following a power function. Before modifying colonization, we show that managers must understand: (1) whether a metapopulation is susceptible to a threat (2) the type of threat acting on a metapopulation (3) which component of threat dynamics might depend on colonization, and (4) the likely response of a threat-dependent variable to changes in colonization. The sensitivity of management decisions to these interactions increases uncertainty in conservation planning decisions.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-10-2008
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-10-2020
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 02-12-2019
DOI: 10.1111/CONL.12618
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 21-09-2011
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 04-04-2023
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-1998687/V3
Abstract: The invasive emerald ash borer ( Agrilus planipennis ) causes damages to street trees estimated to reach US$ 900 million over the next 30 years.Although millions of dollars are spent annually to control this species, such approaches are often based on heuristics. Here, we reveal an optimal management strategy to protect urban trees in North America from A. planipennis . To achieve this, we embedded a pest dispersal model within a mixed integer programming framework. We discovered that optimized strategies consistently outperformed those based on heuristics, potentially resulting in the protection of an additional nearly one million street trees and savings of $ 627 million. Critically, the best management strategies always relied on quarantines and biological control (constituting 83-95% and 5-17% of the project budget, respectively), in contrast with current practices, which have shifted responsibility for quarantines to state authorities. Our findings serve to inform future pest control efforts, and can potentially protect many more trees from this invasive species.
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 12-10-2022
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-1998687/V2
Abstract: The invasive emerald ash borer ( Agrilus planipennis ) causes damages to street trees estimated to reach US$ 900 million over the next 30 years. Although millions of dollars are spent annually to control this species, such approaches are often based on heuristics. Here, we reveal an optimal management strategy to protect urban trees in North America from A. planipennis . To achieve this, we embedded a pest dispersal model within a mixed integer programming framework. We discovered that optimized strategies consistently outperformed those based on heuristics, potentially resulting in the protection of an additional one million street trees and savings of $585 million. Critically, the best management strategies always relied on quarantines and biological control (constituting 74-89% and 11-26% of the project budget, respectively), in contrast with current practices, which have shifted responsibility for quarantines to state authorities. Our findings serve to inform future pest control efforts, and can potentially protect many more trees from this invasive species.
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 29-08-2022
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-1998687/V1
Abstract: The invasive emerald ash borer ( Agrilus planipennis ) causes damages to street trees estimated at US$ 900 million in the next 30 years. Although millions of dollars are spent annually to control this species, such approaches are often based on rules-of-thumb. Here, we reveal an optimal management strategy to protect urban trees in North America from A. planipennis . To achieve this, we embedded a pest dispersal model within a mixed integer programming framework. We discovered that optimized strategies consistently outperformed those based on rules-of-thumb, potentially resulting in the protection of an additional one million street trees and savings of $585 million. Critically, the best management strategies always relied on quarantines and biological control (constituting 74-89% and 11-26% of the project budget, respectively), in contrast with current practices, which have abandoned quarantines. Our findings serve to inform future pest control efforts, and can potentially protect many more trees from this invasive species.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 24-07-2011
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1170
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 25-11-2013
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 30-07-2013
DOI: 10.1111/CONL.12050
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-06-2018
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-02-2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-09-2019
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-2008
DOI: 10.1111/J.1523-1739.2008.00918.X
Abstract: Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis mutica). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-05-2004
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-09-2016
DOI: 10.1111/CONL.12295
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 23-09-2022
Abstract: This work introduces a comprehensive approach to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in parameter values, constrained by the combination of prior beliefs and data. This approach identifies stiff parameter combinations strongly affecting the quality of the model-data fit while simultaneously revealing which of these key parameter combinations are informed primarily by the data or are also substantively influenced by the priors. We focus on the very common context in complex systems where the amount and quality of data are low compared to the number of model parameters to be collectively estimated, and showcase the benefits of this technique for applications in biochemistry, ecology, and cardiac electrophysiology. We also show how stiff parameter combinations, once identified, uncover controlling mechanisms underlying the system being modeled and inform which of the model parameters need to be prioritized in future experiments for improved parameter inference from collective model-data fitting.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2011
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2019
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 16-09-2008
Abstract: Threatened species become increasingly difficult to detect as their populations decline. Managers of such cryptic threatened species face several dilemmas: if they are not sure the species is present, should they continue to manage for that species or invest the limited resources in surveying? We find optimal solutions to this problem using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process and rules of thumb derived from an analytical approximation. We discover that managing a protected area for a cryptic threatened species can be optimal even if we are not sure the species is present. The more threatened and valuable the species is, relative to the costs of management, the more likely we are to manage this species without determining its continued persistence by using surveys. If a species remains unseen, our belief in the persistence of the species declines to a point where the optimal strategy is to shift resources from saving the species to surveying for it. Finally, when surveys lead to a sufficiently low belief that the species is extant, we surrender resources to other conservation actions. We illustrate our findings with a case study using parameters based on the critically endangered Sumatran tiger ( Panthera tigris sumatrae ), and we generate rules of thumb on how to allocate conservation effort for any cryptic species. Using Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes in conservation science, we determine the conditions under which it is better to abandon management for that species because our belief that it continues to exist is too low.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-01-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2020
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2006
DOI: 10.1071/WR05102
Abstract: Foxes, wild dogs, feral cats, rabbits, feral pigs and feral goats are believed to have deleterious impacts on native bio ersity in Australia. However, although considerable resources have been expended controlling these six species, little is known about national patterns and costs of control and monitoring. We therefore conducted a survey of pest-control operations undertaken by conservation-focused organisations in Australia. A total of 1306 control operations were reported, with most conducted during 1998–2003: there was little information prior to 1990. Foxes and rabbits were the most, and feral cats the least, frequently controlled pest species. The total area on which control was undertaken in 2003, the year for which most information was available, ranged from ~0.4 × 104 km2 for feral cats to ~10.7 × 104 km2 for foxes. A wide range of techniques and intensities were used to control each of the six species. The estimated cost of labour expended on control in 2003 ranged from $0.4 × 106 for feral cats to $5.3 × 106 for foxes. Monitoring of the pest or bio ersity occurred in 50–56% of control actions in which foxes, wild dogs and feral cats were targeted, but only 22–26% of control actions in which rabbits, feral pigs and feral goats were targeted. Our results are discussed in relation to previous studies of pest animal control and monitoring in Australia.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-09-2010
DOI: 10.1890/080151
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 28-04-2011
DOI: 10.1890/09-2075.1
Abstract: Research on the allocation of resources to manage threatened species typically assumes that the state of the system is completely observable for ex le whether a species is present or not. The majority of this research has converged on modeling problems as Markov decision processes (MDP), which give an optimal strategy driven by the current state of the system being managed. However, the presence of threatened species in an area can be uncertain. Typically, resource allocation among multiple conservation areas has been based on the biggest expected benefit (return on investment) but fails to incorporate the risk of imperfect detection. We provide the first decision-making framework for confronting the trade-off between information and return on investment, and we illustrate the approach for populations of the Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae) in Kerinci Seblat National Park. The problem is posed as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), which extends MDP to incorporate incomplete detection and allows decisions based on our confidence in particular states. POMDP has previously been used for making optimal management decisions for a single population of a threatened species. We extend this work by investigating two populations, enabling us to explore the importance of variation in expected return on investment between populations on how we should act. We compare the performance of optimal strategies derived assuming complete (MDP) and incomplete (POMDP) observability. We find that uncertainty about the presence of a species affects how we should act. Further, we show that assuming full knowledge of a species presence will deliver poorer strategic outcomes than if uncertainty about a species status is explicitly considered. MDP solutions perform up to 90% worse than the POMDP for highly cryptic species, and they only converge in performance when we are certain of observing the species during management: an unlikely scenario for many threatened species. This study illustrates an approach to allocating limited resources to threatened species where the conservation status of the species in different areas is uncertain. The results highlight the importance of including partial observability in future models of optimal species management when the species of concern is cryptic in nature.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 10-12-2015
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-01-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCOMMS10245
Abstract: Food-web theory can be a powerful guide to the management of complex ecosystems. However, we show that indices of species importance common in food-web and network theory can be a poor guide to ecosystem management, resulting in significantly more extinctions than necessary. We use Bayesian Networks and Constrained Combinatorial Optimization to find optimal management strategies for a wide range of real and hypothetical food webs. This Artificial Intelligence approach provides the ability to test the performance of any index for prioritizing species management in a network. While no single network theory index provides an appropriate guide to management for all food webs, a modified version of the Google PageRank algorithm reliably minimizes the chance and severity of negative outcomes. Our analysis shows that by prioritizing ecosystem management based on the network-wide impact of species protection rather than species loss, we can substantially improve conservation outcomes.
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2006
DOI: 10.1071/WR05029
Abstract: The principal method for estimating the abundance of bats in roosts is to count the number of bats exiting the roost at dusk (‘flyout counts’). We hypothesised that the accuracy and precision of flyout counts decrease non-linearly as the number of bats moving per unit of time increases, and that accuracy increases with observer experience. To test these hypotheses, we filmed grey-headed flying-foxes (Pteropus poliocephalus) exiting a roost in Melbourne on three consecutive evenings. The film was slowed and the number of flying-foxes flying-out in 30-s intervals was counted and assumed to be the true abundance. Thirteen other observers independently counted the number of flying-foxes flying-out in real time. We formulated our hypotheses into candidate models and compared support for these models using information-theoretic methods. Non-linear models had much greater support than linear models for all three flyouts. There was undercounting in two flyouts and overcounting in the third. There was good support for an effect of observer experience in one of the flyouts, but less support in the others. Precision declined as the true abundance increased in all three flyout counts. Our results indicate that accuracy, precision and observer effects vary with the dynamics of each flyout, and suggest that under some conditions flyout counts will often provide both inaccurate and imprecise estimates of abundance.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-06-2010
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE09180
Abstract: Protected areas vary enormously in their contribution to conserving bio ersity, and the inefficiency of protected area systems is widely acknowledged. However, conservation plans focus overwhelmingly on adding new sites to current protected area estates. Here we show that the conservation performance of a protected area system can be radically improved, without extra expenditure, by replacing a small number of protected areas with new ones that achieve more for conservation. Replacing the least cost-effective 1% of Australia's 6,990 strictly protected areas could increase the number of vegetation types that have 15% or more of their original extent protected from 18 to 54, of a maximum possible of 58. Moreover, it increases markedly the area that can be protected, with no increase in overall spending. This new paradigm for protected area system expansion could yield huge improvements to global conservation at a time when competition for land is increasingly intense.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2009
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 02-01-2009
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-2015
DOI: 10.1890/140022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2011
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 30-10-2018
DOI: 10.1111/CONL.12421
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-11-2009
DOI: 10.1111/J.1461-0248.2009.01384.X
Abstract: Marine Protected Areas are usually static, permanently closed areas. There are, however, both social and ecological reasons to adopt dynamic closures, where reserves move through time. Using a general theoretical framework, we investigate whether dynamic closures can improve the mean biomass of herbivorous fishes on reef systems, thereby enhancing resilience to undesirable phase-shifts. At current levels of reservation (10-30%), moving protection between all reefs in a system is unlikely to improve herbivore biomass, but can lead to a more even distribution of biomass. However, if protected areas are rotated among an appropriate subset of the entire reef system (e.g. rotating 10 protected areas between only 20 reefs in a 100 reef system), dynamic closures always lead to increased mean herbivore biomass. The management strategy that will achieve the highest mean herbivore biomass depends on both the trajectories and rates of population recovery and decline. Given the current large-scale threats to coral reefs, the ability of dynamic marine protected areas to achieve conservation goals deserves more attention.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2017
DOI: 10.1016/J.JTBI.2017.06.019
Abstract: Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining in iduals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphical model with limited analysis of possible population trajectories. By specifying a general class of functions for price-rarity relationships, we show that the classic theory can understate the risk of species extinction. AAE theory proposes that only populations below a critical Allee threshold will go extinct due to increasing price-rarity relationships. Our analysis shows that this threshold can be much higher than the original theory suggests, depending on initial harvest effort. More alarmingly, even species with population sizes above this Allee threshold, for which AAE predicts persistence, can be destined to extinction. Introducing even a minimum price for harvested in iduals, close to zero, can cause large populations to cross the classic anthropogenic Allee threshold on a trajectory towards extinction. These results suggest that traditional AAE theory may give a false sense of security when managing large harvested populations.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2010
DOI: 10.1016/J.TREE.2010.07.002
Abstract: The gross under-resourcing of conservation endeavours has placed an increasing emphasis on spending accountability. Increased accountability has led to monitoring forming a central element of conservation programs. Although there is little doubt that information obtained from monitoring can improve management of bio ersity, the cost (in time and/or money) of gaining this knowledge is rarely considered when making decisions about allocation of resources to monitoring. We present a simple framework allowing managers and policy advisors to make decisions about when to invest in monitoring to improve management.
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2018
DOI: 10.1071/PC18043
Abstract: Finding your feet in the world of work/life balance is challenging. There are so many things to consider. Sometimes it feels like a disaster on all fronts. In reality we have to make trade-offs and prioritise between work and life but unfortunately doing this is not just common sense. Making good decisions hinges on a way of problem-solving steeped in decades of research in the fields of economics, applied mathematics, philosophy and psychology – known as decision analysis – an approach famously described as a formalisation of common sense for decision problems which are too complex for informal use of common sense. Examining environmental decisions through the lens of this approach is the focus of my groups’ research. In this reflective piece I share my struggle with the complex and dynamic trade-offs between work and family life, and outline the steps of decision analysis in this context drawing on parallels with my research in environmental decision-making.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2020
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 07-2023
Abstract: Nature conservation is underresourced, requiring managers to prioritize where, when, and how to spend limited funds. Prioritization methods identify the subset of actions that provide the most benefit to an actor's objective. However, spending decisions by conservation actors are often misaligned with their objectives. Although this misalignment is frequently attributed to poor choices by the actors, we argue that it can also be a byproduct of working alongside other organizations. Using strategic analyses of multi-actor systems in conservation, we show how interactions among multiple conservation actors can create misalignment between the spending and objectives of in idual actors and why current uncoordinated prioritizations lead to fewer conservation objectives achieved for in idual actors. We draw three conclusions from our results. First, that misalignment is an unsuitable metric for evaluating spending, because it may be necessary to achieve actors’ objectives. Second, that current prioritization methods cannot identify optimal decisions (as they purport to do), because they do not incorporate other actors’ decisions. Third, that practical steps can be taken to move actors in the direction of coordination and thereby better achieve their conservation objectives.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-12-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2018
DOI: 10.1016/J.TREE.2018.03.009
Abstract: Climate change is shifting the ranges of species. Simple predictive metrics of range shifts such as climate velocity, that do not require extensive knowledge or data on in idual species, could help to guide conservation. We review research on climate velocity, describing the theory underpinning the concept and its assumptions. We highlight how climate velocity has already been applied in conservation-related research, including climate residence time, climate refugia, endemism, historic and projected range shifts, exposure to climate change, and climate connectivity. Finally, we discuss ways to enhance the use of climate velocity in conservation through tailoring it to be more biologically meaningful, informing design of protected areas, conserving ocean bio ersity in 3D, and informing conservation actions.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 19-01-2021
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 10-04-2019
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Date: 07-04-2011
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-2010
DOI: 10.1890/08-1749.1
Abstract: Money is often a limiting factor in conservation, and attempting to conserve endangered species can be costly. Consequently, a framework for optimizing fiscally constrained conservation decisions for a single species is needed. In this paper we find the optimal budget allocation among isolated subpopulations of a threatened species to minimize local extinction probability. We solve the problem using stochastic dynamic programming, derive a useful and simple alternative guideline for allocating funds, and test its performance using forward simulation. The model considers subpopulations that persist in habitat patches of differing quality, which in our model is reflected in different relationships between money invested and extinction risk. We discover that, in most cases, subpopulations that are less efficient to manage should receive more money than those that are more efficient to manage, due to higher investment needed to reduce extinction risk. Our simple investment guideline performs almost as well as the exact optimal strategy. We illustrate our approach with a case study of the management of the Sumatran tiger, Panthera tigris sumatrae, in Kerinci Seblat National Park (KSNP), Indonesia. We find that different budgets should be allocated to the separate tiger subpopulations in KSNP. The subpopulation that is not at risk of extinction does not require any management investment. Based on the combination of risks of extinction and habitat quality, the optimal allocation for these particular tiger subpopulations is an unusual case: subpopulations that occur in higher-quality habitat (more efficient to manage) should receive more funds than the remaining subpopulation that is in lower-quality habitat. Because the yearly budget allocated to the KSNP for tiger conservation is small, to guarantee the persistence of all the subpopulations that are currently under threat we need to prioritize those that are easier to save. When allocating resources among subpopulations of a threatened species, the combined effects of differences in habitat quality, cost of action, and current subpopulation probability of extinction need to be integrated. We provide a useful guideline for allocating resources among isolated subpopulations of any threatened species.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 29-01-2014
DOI: 10.1111/COBI.12238
Abstract: Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For ex le, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our ex le, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 15-12-2017
Abstract: An iterative process that recognizes different value systems may help to protect elephants
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-01-2020
DOI: 10.1111/ELE.13465
Abstract: Well-intentioned environmental management can backfire, causing unforeseen damage. To avoid this, managers and ecologists seek accurate predictions of the ecosystem-wide impacts of interventions, given small and imprecise datasets, which is an incredibly difficult task. We generated and analysed thousands of ecosystem population time series to investigate whether fitted models can aid decision-makers to select interventions. Using these time-series data (sparse and noisy datasets drawn from deterministic Lotka-Volterra systems with two to nine species, of known network structure), dynamic model forecasts of whether a species' future population will be positively or negatively affected by rapid eradication of another species were correct > 70% of the time. Although 70% correct classifications is only slightly better than an uninformative prediction (50%), this classification accuracy can be feasibly improved by increasing monitoring accuracy and frequency. Our findings suggest that models may not need to produce well-constrained predictions before they can inform decisions that improve environmental outcomes.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 17-11-2010
DOI: 10.1111/J.1523-1739.2010.01605.X
Abstract: The 2010 bio ersity target agreed by signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity directed the attention of conservation professionals toward the development of indicators with which to measure changes in biological ersity at the global scale. We considered why global bio ersity indicators are needed, what characteristics successful global indicators have, and how existing indicators perform. Because monitoring could absorb a large proportion of funds available for conservation, we believe indicators should be linked explicitly to monitoring objectives and decisions about which monitoring schemes deserve funding should be informed by predictions of the value of such schemes to decision making. We suggest that raising awareness among the public and policy makers, auditing management actions, and informing policy choices are the most important global monitoring objectives. Using four well-developed indicators of biological ersity (extent of forests, coverage of protected areas, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) as ex les, we analyzed the characteristics needed for indicators to meet these objectives. We recommend that conservation professionals improve on existing indicators by eliminating spatial biases in data availability, fill gaps in information about ecosystems other than forests, and improve understanding of the way indicators respond to policy changes. Monitoring is not an end in itself, and we believe it is vital that the ultimate objectives of global monitoring of biological ersity inform development of new indicators.
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2000
DOI: 10.1071/ZO99061
Abstract: Many eutherian mammals adjust their foraging behaviour according to the presence or threat of predators. Here, we examine experimentally whether an urban population of brushtail possums, Trichosurus vulpecula, similarly adjust their foraging behaviour. Our field experiments manipulated the quantity of food items in artificial feeders placed at different distances from trees. These experiments showed that the possums remained longer at feeders placed far from the trees, but their foraging behaviour did not change with the initial amount of food. The scanning behaviour of possums did not simply increase with distance from the trees, as predicted from studies of other vertebrates. Nevertheless, the number of physical conflicts between in iduals increased as the amount of available food decreased. These data suggest that the changes in the foraging behaviour of the possums in this population do not reflect a simple trade-off between foraging efficiency and the risk of predation or competition.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2019
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 19-04-2017
DOI: 10.1002/EAP.1515
Abstract: Adaptive management is widely advocated to improve environmental management. Derivations of optimal strategies for adaptive management, however, tend to be case specific and time consuming. In contrast, managers might seek relatively simple guidance, such as insight into when a new potential management action should be considered, and how much effort should be expended on trialing such an action. We constructed a two-time-step scenario where a manager is choosing between two possible management actions. The manager has a total budget that can be split between a learning phase and an implementation phase. We use this scenario to investigate when and how much a manager should invest in learning about the management actions available. The optimal investment in learning can be understood intuitively by accounting for the expected value of s le information, the benefits that accrue during learning, the direct costs of learning, and the opportunity costs of learning. We find that the optimal proportion of the budget to spend on learning is characterized by several critical thresholds that mark a jump from spending a large proportion of the budget on learning to spending nothing. For ex le, as s ling variance increases, it is optimal to spend a larger proportion of the budget on learning, up to a point: if the s ling variance passes a critical threshold, it is no longer beneficial to invest in learning. Similar thresholds are observed as a function of the total budget and the difference in the expected performance of the two actions. We illustrate how this model can be applied using a case study of choosing between alternative rearing diets for hihi, an endangered New Zealand passerine. Although the model presented is a simplified scenario, we believe it is relevant to many management situations. Managers often have relatively short time horizons for management, and might be reluctant to consider further investment in learning and monitoring beyond collecting data from a single time period.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 13-11-2018
DOI: 10.1002/FEE.1972
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-2008
DOI: 10.1111/J.1523-1739.2008.01037.X
Abstract: It is thought that recovery of marine habitats from uncontrollable disturbance may be faster in marine reserves than in unprotected habitats. But which marine habitats should be protected, those areas at greatest risk or those at least risk? We first defined this problem mathematically for 2 alternate conservation objectives. We then analytically solved this problem for both objectives and determined under which conditions each of the different protection strategies was optimal. If the conservation objective was to maximize the chance of having at least 1 healthy site, then the best strategy was protection of the site at lowest risk. On the other hand, if the goal was to maximize the expected number of healthy sites, the optimal strategy was more complex. If protected sites were likely to spend a significant amount of time in a degraded state, then it was best to protect low-risk sites. Alternatively, if most areas were generally healthy then, counterintuitively, it was best to protect sites at higher risk. We applied these strategies to a situation of cyclone disturbance of coral reefs on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. With regard to the risk of cyclone disturbance, the optimal reef to protect differed dramatically, depending on the expected speed of reef recovery of both protected and unprotected reefs. An adequate consideration of risk is fundamental to all conservation actions and can indicate surprising routes to conservation success.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-01-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41559-017-0421-2
Abstract: Predators and scavengers are frequently persecuted for their negative effects on property, livestock and human life. Research has shown that these species play important regulatory roles in intact ecosystems including regulating herbivore and mesopredator populations that in turn affect floral, soil and hydrological systems. Yet predators and scavengers receive surprisingly little recognition for their benefits to humans in the landscapes they share. We review these benefits, highlighting the most recent studies that have documented their positive effects across a range of environments. Indeed, the benefits of predators and scavengers can be far reaching, affecting human health and well-being through disease mitigation, agricultural production and waste-disposal services. As many predators and scavengers are in a state of rapid decline, we argue that researchers must work in concert with the media, managers and policymakers to highlight benefits of these species and the need to ensure their long-term conservation. Furthermore, instead of assessing the costs of predators and scavengers only in economic terms, it is critical to recognize their beneficial contributions to human health and well-being. Given the ever-expanding human footprint, it is essential that we construct conservation solutions that allow a wide variety of species to persist in shared landscapes. Identifying, evaluating and communicating the benefits provided by species that are often considered problem animals is an important step for establishing tolerance in these shared spaces.
Start Date: 01-2010
End Date: 01-2014
Amount: $340,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 01-2014
End Date: 04-2017
Amount: $393,689.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 12-2017
End Date: 02-2025
Amount: $886,704.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 10-2019
End Date: 12-2023
Amount: $236,852.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 12-2016
End Date: 12-2021
Amount: $311,377.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 03-2017
End Date: 07-2021
Amount: $370,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 07-2011
End Date: 05-2018
Amount: $11,900,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 10-2022
End Date: 09-2026
Amount: $484,029.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
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