ORCID Profile
0000-0003-2272-0773
Current Organisation
The University of Edinburgh
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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 22-05-2018
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 24-09-2020
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2018
DOI: 10.1029/2018JG004386
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 11-07-2017
Abstract: Abstract. This study evaluates the ability of the JULES land surface model (LSM) to simulate gross primary productivity (GPP) on regional and global scales for 2001–2010. Model simulations, performed at various spatial resolutions and driven with a variety of meteorological datasets (WFDEI-GPCC, WFDEI-CRU and PRINCETON), were compared to the MODIS GPP product, spatially gridded estimates of upscaled GPP from the FLUXNET network (FLUXNET-MTE) and the CARDAMOM terrestrial carbon cycle analysis. Firstly, when JULES was driven with the WFDEI-GPCC dataset (at 0. 5° × 0. 5° spatial resolution), the annual average global GPP simulated by JULES for 2001–2010 was higher than the observation-based estimates (MODIS and FLUXNET-MTE), by 25 and 8 %, respectively, and CARDAMOM estimates by 23 %. JULES was able to simulate the standard deviation of monthly GPP fluxes compared to CARDAMOM and the observation-based estimates on global scales. Secondly, GPP simulated by JULES for various biomes (forests, grasslands and shrubs) on global and regional scales were compared. Differences among JULES, MODIS, FLUXNET-MTE and CARDAMOM on global scales were due to differences in simulated GPP in the tropics. Thirdly, it was shown that spatial resolution (0. 5° × 0. 5°, 1° × 1° and 2° × 2°) had little impact on simulated GPP on these large scales, with global GPP ranging from 140 to 142 PgC year−1. Finally, the sensitivity of JULES to meteorological driving data, a major source of model uncertainty, was examined. Estimates of annual average global GPP were higher when JULES was driven with the PRINCETON meteorological dataset than when driven with the WFDEI-GPCC dataset by 3 PgC year−1. On regional scales, differences between the two were observed, with the WFDEI-GPCC-driven model simulations estimating higher GPP in the tropics (5° N–5° S) and the PRINCETON-driven model simulations estimating higher GPP in the extratropics (30–60° N).
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 24-04-2019
Abstract: Abstract. There is a significant knowledge gap in the current state of the terrestrial carbon (C) budget. Recent studies have highlighted a poor understanding particularly of C pool transit times and of whether productivity or biomass dominate these biases. The Arctic, accounting for approximately 50 % of the global soil organic C stocks, has an important role in the global C cycle. Here, we use the CARbon DAta MOdel (CARDAMOM) data-assimilation system to produce pan-Arctic terrestrial C cycle analyses for 2000–2015. This approach avoids using traditional plant functional type or steady-state assumptions. We integrate a range of data (soil organic C, leaf area index, biomass, and climate) to determine the most likely state of the high-latitude C cycle at a 1∘ × 1∘ resolution and also to provide general guidance about the controlling biases in transit times. On average, CARDAMOM estimates regional mean rates of photosynthesis of 565 g C m−2 yr−1 (90 % confidence interval between the 5th and 95th percentiles: 428, 741), autotrophic respiration of 270 g C m−2 yr−1 (182, 397) and heterotrophic respiration of 219 g C m−2 yr−1 (31, 1458), suggesting a pan-Arctic sink of −67 (−287, 1160) g Cm−2 yr−1, weaker in tundra and stronger in taiga. However, our confidence intervals remain large (and so the region could be a source of C), reflecting uncertainty assigned to the regional data products. We show a clear spatial and temporal agreement between CARDAMOM analyses and different sources of assimilated and independent data at both pan-Arctic and local scales but also identify consistent biases between CARDAMOM and validation data. The assimilation process requires clearer error quantification for leaf area index (LAI) and biomass products to resolve these biases. Mapping of vegetation C stocks and change over time and soil C ages linked to soil C stocks is required for better analytical constraint. Comparing CARDAMOM analyses to global vegetation models (GVMs) for the same period, we conclude that transit times of vegetation C are inconsistently simulated in GVMs due to a combination of uncertainties from productivity and biomass calculations. Our findings highlight that GVMs need to focus on constraining both current vegetation C stocks and net primary production to improve a process-based understanding of C cycle dynamics in the Arctic.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 21-09-2016
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-2016-214
Abstract: Abstract. This study evaluates the ability of the JULES Land Surface Model (LSM) to simulate Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) at regional and global scales for 2001–2010. Model simulations, performed at various spatial resolutions and driven with a variety of meteorological datasets (WFDEI-GPCC, WFDEI-CRU and PRINCETON), were compared to the MODIS GPP product, spatially gridded estimates of upscaled GPP from the FLUXNET network (FLUXNET-MTE) and the CARDAMOM terrestrial carbon cycle analysis. Firstly, JULES was found to simulate interannual variability (IAV) at global scales. When JULES was driven with the WFDEI-GPCC dataset (at 0.5º × 0.5º spatial resolution), it was found that the annual average global GPP simulated by JULES for 2001–2010 was higher than the observation-based estimates (MODIS and FLUXNET-MTE), by 25 % and 8 %, respectively, and CARDAMOM estimates by 23 %. Secondly, GPP fluxes simulated by JULES for various biomes (forests, grasslands and shrubs) at global and regional scales were compared. It was found that differences between JULES, FLUXNET-MTE, MODIS and CARDAMOM at global scales were mostly due to differences in the tropics with CARDAMOM performing better than JULES in this region. Thirdly, it was shown that spatial resolution (0.5º × 0.5º, 1º × 1º and 2º × 2º) had no impact on simulated GPP on these large scales. Finally, the sensitivity of JULES to meteorological driving data, a major source of model uncertainty, was examined. Estimates of annual average global GPP were higher when JULES was driven with the PRINCETON meteorological dataset than when driven with the WFDEI-GPCC dataset by 4 PgC year−1. At regional scales, differences between two were observed with the WFDEI-GPCC driven model simulations estimating higher GPP in the tropics (at 5º N–5º S) and the PRINCETON driven model simulations estimating higher GPP in the extratropics (at 30º N–60º N).
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 03-06-2021
Abstract: Abstract. Drought is predicted to increase in the future due to climate change, bringing with it myriad impacts on ecosystems. Plants respond to drier soils by reducing stomatal conductance in order to conserve water and avoid hydraulic damage. Despite the importance of plant drought responses for the global carbon cycle and local and regional climate feedbacks, land surface models are unable to capture observed plant responses to soil moisture stress. We assessed the impact of soil moisture stress on simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and latent energy flux (LE) in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) vn4.9 on seasonal and annual timescales and evaluated 10 different representations of soil moisture stress in the model. For the default configuration, GPP was more realistic in temperate biome sites than in the tropics or high-latitude (cold-region) sites, while LE was best simulated in temperate and high-latitude (cold) sites. Errors that were not due to soil moisture stress, possibly linked to phenology, contributed to model biases for GPP in tropical savanna and deciduous forest sites. We found that three alternative approaches to calculating soil moisture stress produced more realistic results than the default parameterization for most biomes and climates. All of these involved increasing the number of soil layers from 4 to 14 and the soil depth from 3.0 to 10.8 m. In addition, we found improvements when soil matric potential replaced volumetric water content in the stress equation (the “soil14_psi” experiments), when the critical threshold value for inducing soil moisture stress was reduced (“soil14_p0”), and when plants were able to access soil moisture in deeper soil layers (“soil14_dr*2”). For LE, the biases were highest in the default configuration in temperate mixed forests, with overestimation occurring during most of the year. At these sites, reducing soil moisture stress (with the new parameterizations mentioned above) increased LE and increased model biases but improved the simulated seasonal cycle and brought the monthly variance closer to the measured variance of LE. Further evaluation of the reason for the high bias in LE at many of the sites would enable improvements in both carbon and energy fluxes with new parameterizations for soil moisture stress. Increasing the soil depth and plant access to deep soil moisture improved many aspects of the simulations, and we recommend these settings in future work using JULES or as a general way to improve land surface carbon and water fluxes in other models. In addition, using soil matric potential presents the opportunity to include plant functional type-specific parameters to further improve modeled fluxes.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 24-09-2020
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-2020-273
Abstract: Abstract. Drought is predicted to increase in the future due to climate change, bringing with it a myriad of impacts on ecosystems. Plants respond to drier soils by reducing stomatal conductance, in order to conserve water and avoid hydraulic damage. Despite the importance of plant drought responses for the global carbon cycle and local/regional climate feedbacks, land surface models are unable to capture observed plant responses to soil moisture stress. We assessed the impact of soil moisture stress on simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and latent energy flux (LE) in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) vn4.9 on seasonal and annual timescales, and evaluated ten different representations of stress in the model. For the default configuration, GPP was more realistic in temperate biome sites than in the tropics or high latitudes/cold region sites, while LE was best simulated in temperate and high latitude/cold sites. Errors not due to soil moisture stress, possibly linked to phenology, contributed to model biases for GPP in tropical savannah and deciduous forest sites. We found that three alternative approaches to calculating soil moisture stress produced more realistic results than the default parameterization for most biomes and climates. All of these involved increasing the number of soil layers from 4 to 14, and the soil depth from 3m to 10.8m. In addition, we found improvements when soil matric potential replaced volumetric water content in the stress equation, when the onset of stress was delayed, and when roots extended deeper into the soil. For LE, the biases were highest in the default configuration in temperate mixed forests, with overestimation occurring during most of the year. At these sites, reducing soil moisture stress (with the new parameterizations mentioned above) increased LE and made the simulation worse. Further evaluation into the reason for the high bias in LE at many of the sites would enable improvements in both carbon and energy fluxes with new parameterizations for soil moisture stress.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 22-05-2018
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-2018-19
Abstract: Abstract. There is a significant knowledge gap in the current state of the terrestrial carbon (C) budget. The Arctic accounts for approximately 50 % of the global soil organic C stock, emphasizing the important role of Arctic regions in the global C cycle. Recent studies have pointed to the poor understanding of C pools turnover, although remain unclear as to whether productivity or biomass dominate the biases. Here, we use an improved version of the CARDAMOM data-assimilation system, to produce pan-Arctic terrestrial C-related variables without using traditional plant functional type or steady-state assumptions. Our approach integrates a range of data (soil organic C, leaf area index, biomass, and climate) to determine the most likely state of the high latitude C cycle at a 1° × 1° resolution for the first 15 years of the 21st century, but also to provide general guidance about the controlling biases in the turnover dynamics. As average, CARDAMOM estimates 513 (456, 579), 245 (208, 290) and 204 (109, 427) g C m−2 yr−1 (90 % confidence interval) from photosynthesis, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration respectively, suggesting that the pan-Arctic region acted as a likely sink −55 (−152, 157) g C m−2 yr−1, weaker in tundra and stronger in taiga, but our confidence intervals remain large (and so the region could be a source of C). In general, we find a good agreement between CARDAMOM and different sources of assimilated and independent data at both pan-Arctic and local scale. Using CARDAMOM as a benchmarking tool for global vegetation models (GVM), we also conclude that turnover time of vegetation C is weakly simulated in vegetation models and is a major component of error in their forecasts. Our findings highlight that GVM modellers need to focus on the vegetation C stocks dynamics, but also their respiratory losses, to improve our process-based understanding of internal C cycle dynamics in the Arctic.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Darren Slevin.