ORCID Profile
0000-0001-7626-1248
Current Organisation
Queensland University of Technology
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Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-03-2023
DOI: 10.1038/S41558-023-01630-7
Abstract: Zooplankton are the primary energy pathway from phytoplankton to fish. Yet, there is limited understanding about how climate change will modify zooplankton communities and the implications for marine food webs globally. Using a trait-based marine ecosystem model resolving key zooplankton groups, we find that future oceans, particularly in tropical regions, favour food webs increasingly dominated by carnivorous (chaetognaths, jellyfish and carnivorous copepods) and gelatinous filter-feeding zooplankton (larvaceans and salps) at the expense of omnivorous copepods and euphausiids. By providing a direct energetic pathway from small phytoplankton to fish, the rise of gelatinous filter feeders partially offsets the increase in trophic steps between primary producers and fish from declining phytoplankton biomass and increases in carnivorous zooplankton. However, future fish communities experience reduced carrying capacity from falling phytoplankton biomass and less nutritious food as environmental conditions increasingly favour gelatinous zooplankton, slightly exacerbating projected declines in small pelagic fish biomass in tropical regions by 2100.
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 08-11-2021
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-953268/V1
Abstract: Although zooplankton are the primary energy pathway from phytoplankton to fish, we understand little about how climate change will modify zooplankton communities and their role in marine ecosystems. Using a trait-based marine ecosystem model resolving key zooplankton groups, we assess climate change impacts on zooplankton community composition and implications for marine food webs globally. We find that future oceans favour food webs increasingly dominated by carnivorous (chaetognaths, jellyfish and carnivorous copepods) and gelatinous filter-feeding zooplankton (larvaceans and salps). By providing a direct energetic pathway from small phytoplankton to fish, the rise of gelatinous filter-feeders largely offsets the increase in trophic steps between primary producers and fish from declining phytoplankton production and increasing carnivorous zooplankton. However, our results indicate that future fish communities face not only reduced carrying capacity from falling primary production, but also lower quality diets as environmental conditions increasingly favour gelatinous zooplankton.
Publisher: Canadian Science Publishing
Date: 2023
Abstract: Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-10-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41558-021-01173-9
Abstract: Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022GB007367
Abstract: Although zooplankton play a substantial role in the biological carbon pump and serve as a crucial link between primary producers and higher trophic level consumers, the skillful representation of zooplankton is not often a focus of ocean biogeochemical models. Systematic evaluations of zooplankton in models could improve their representation, but so far, ocean biogeochemical skill assessment of Earth system model (ESM) ensembles have not included zooplankton. Here we use a recently developed global, observationally based map of mesozooplankton biomass to assess the skill of mesozooplankton in six CMIP6 ESMs. We also employ a biome‐based assessment of the ability of these models to reproduce the observed relationship between mesozooplankton biomass and surface chlorophyll. The combined analysis found that most models were able to reasonably simulate the large regional variations in mesozooplankton biomass at the global scale. Additionally, three of the ESMs simulated a mesozooplankton‐chlorophyll relationship within the observational bounds, which we used as an emergent constraint on future mesozooplankton projections. We highlight where differences in model structure and parameters may give rise to varied mesozooplankton distributions under historic and future conditions, and the resultant wide ensemble spread in projected changes in mesozooplankton biomass. Despite differences, the strength of the mesozooplankton‐chlorophyll relationships across all models was related to the projected changes in mesozooplankton biomass globally and in regional biomes. These results suggest that improved observations of mesozooplankton and their relationship to chlorophyll will better constrain projections of climate change impacts on these important animals.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-07-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-022-30991-4
Abstract: Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations ( 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.
No related grants have been discovered for Ryan Heneghan.