ORCID Profile
0000-0003-4157-517X
Current Organisation
Met Office
Does something not look right? The information on this page has been harvested from data sources that may not be up to date. We continue to work with information providers to improve coverage and quality. To report an issue, use the Feedback Form.
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2017
DOI: 10.1071/WF16142
Abstract: Spotting can start fires up to tens of kilometres ahead of the primary fire front, causing rapid spread and placing immense pressure on suppression resources. Here, we investigate the dynamics of the buoyant plume generated by the fire and its ability to transport firebrands. We couple large-eddy simulations of bushfire plumes with a firebrand transport model to assess the effects of turbulent plume dynamics on firebrand trajectories. We show that plume dynamics have a marked effect on the maximum spotting distance and determine the amount of lateral and longitudinal spread in firebrand landing position. In-plume turbulence causes much of this spread and can increase the maximum spotting distance by a factor of more than 2 over that in a plume without turbulence in our experiments. The substantial impact of plume dynamics on the spotting process implies that fire spread models should include parametrisations of turbulent plume dynamics to improve their accuracy and physical realism.
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 21-01-2022
DOI: 10.3389/FMARS.2021.760670
Abstract: During the breeding season, seabirds are central place foragers and in order to successfully rear chicks they must adjust their foraging behaviours to compensate for extrinsic factors. When foraging, arctic terns Sterna paradisaea are restricted to the first 50 cm of the water column and can only carry a few prey items back to their nests at once. In Iceland, where 20–30% of the global population breed, poor fledging success has been linked to low food availability. Using GPS loggers, we investigated in idual foraging behaviours of breeding adults during incubation from a large colony over four seasons. First, we tested whether foraging trip distance or duration was linked to morphology or sex. Second, we examined how trips vary with weather and overlap with commercial fisheries. Our findings reveal that arctic terns travel far greater distances during foraging trips than previously recorded (approximately 7.3 times further), and they forage around the clock. There was inter-annual variability in the foraging locations that birds used, but no relationship between size or sex differences and the distances travelled. We detected no relationship between arctic tern foraging flights and local prevailing winds, and tern heading and speed were unrelated to local wind patterns. We identified key arctic tern foraging areas and found little spatial or temporal overlap with fishing pelagic vessels, but larger home ranges corresponded with years with lower net primary productivity levels. This suggests that whilst changing polar weather conditions may not pose a threat to arctic terns at present, nor might local competition with commercial fisheries for prey, they may be failing to forage in productive areas, or may be affected by synergistic climatic effects on prey abundance and quality. Shifts in pelagic prey distributions as a result of increasing water temperatures and salinities will impact marine top predators in this region, so continued monitoring of sentinel species such as arctic terns is vital.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-02-2022
DOI: 10.1002/WEA.4161
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 23-05-2023
Abstract: Some of the most devastating crop diseases and insect pests can be transmitted by wind over extremely long distances. These low-probability but high-impact events can have severe consequences for crop production and food security by causing epidemic outbreaks or devastating insect infestations in previously uninfected geographic areas. Two prominent ex les that have recently caused substantial damage to agricultural production are novel strains of wheat rusts and desert locust swarm infestations. Whilst quantitative estimates of long-range atmospheric transport events can be obtained using meteorological transport simulations, the exact characteristics of three-dimensional spatiotemporal dynamics of crop pathogen transport and insect flight on extremely large spatial scales, over entire regions and continents, remain largely unknown. Here, we investigate the feasibility and usefulness of new advanced geospatial data visualization methods for studying extremely long-distance airborne transmission of crop pathogens and insect pests. We combine field surveillance data and a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model with novel techniques from computer graphics to obtain, for the first time, detailed three-dimensional visual insights into airborne crop pathogen and insect pest transport on regional and continental scales. Visual insights into long-distance dispersal of pests and pathogens are presented as a series of short 3D movies. We use interactive three-dimensional visual data analysis for explorative examination of long-range atmospheric transport events from a selection of outbreak and infestation sites in East Africa and South East Asia. The practical usefulness of advanced 3D visualization methods for improving risk estimates and early warning is discussed in the context of two operational crop disease and insect pest management systems (for wheat rusts and desert locusts). The tools and methods introduced here can be applied to other pathogens, pests, and geographical areas and can improve understanding of risks posed to agricultural production by crop disease and insect pest transmission caused by meteorological extreme events.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-09-2015
DOI: 10.1002/QJ.2646
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-07-2023
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.16891
Abstract: Climate change is one of the top three global threats to seabirds, particularly species that visit polar regions. Arctic terns migrate between both polar regions annually and rely on productive marine areas to forage, on sea ice for rest and foraging, and prevailing winds during flight. Here, we report 21st‐century trends in environmental variables affecting arctic terns at key locations along their Atlantic/Indian Ocean migratory flyway during the non‐breeding seasons, identified through tracking data. End‐of‐century climate change projections were derived from Earth System Models and multi‐model means calculated in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: ‘middle‐of‐the‐road’ and ‘fossil‐fuelled development’ scenarios. Declines in North Atlantic primary production emerge as a major impact to arctic terns likely to affect their foraging during the 21st century under a ‘fossil‐fuelled development’ scenario. Minimal changes are, however, projected at three other key regions visited by arctic terns (Benguela Upwelling, Subantarctic Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean). Southern Ocean sea ice extent is likely to decline, but the magnitude of change and potential impacts on tern survival are uncertain. Small changes ( m s −1 ) in winds are projected in both scenarios, but with minimal likely impacts on migration routes and duration. However, Southern Ocean westerlies are likely to strengthen and contract closer to the continent, which may require arctic terns to shift routes or flight strategies. Overall, we find minor effects of climate change on the migration of arctic terns, with the exception of poorer foraging in the North Atlantic. However, given that arctic terns travel over huge spatial scales and live for decades, they integrate minor changes in conditions along their migration routes such that the sum effect may be greater than the parts. Meeting carbon emission targets is vital to slow these end‐of‐century climatic changes and minimise extinction risk for a suite of polar species.
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Date: 21-06-2011
DOI: 10.1061/41185(417)4
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 31-10-2022
Abstract: Wheat stem rust epidemics caused by the obligate pathogenic fungus Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici have historically driven severe yield losses on all wheat growing continents and, after many decades of control, stem rust is re-emerging as a disease of concern. In 1998, a highly virulent race able to overcome 90% of world wheat cultivars, Ug99, was identified in Uganda. Since initial detection, the pathogen has evolved many new variants and spread to many countries. The original variant spread from East Africa to the Middle East with three years between detection in Ethiopia and subsequent detection in Yemen. In 2014, another Ug99 variant (TTKTT), with one of the most complex virulence profiles, was detected in Kenya. This variant also spread from East Africa to the Middle East, but with only one year between detection in Ethiopia and subsequent detection in Iraq. Here we investigate potential airborne migration routes to account for the rapid spread of TTKTT in East Africa and beyond to the Middle East by using an integrated model combining the outputs from a meteorology-driven fungal spore dispersion model with epidemiological models to account for seasonal availability of susceptible crops and conditions for spore release and infectivity. We find viable pathways in the 2018/19 season that incorporate critical stepping-stone locations in Yemen or Saudi Arabia, but only in the presence of newly irrigated regions in Ethiopia. Our results indicate the potential and increasing importance of irrigated wheat areas in Ethiopia, Yemen and Saudi Arabia for inter-regional stem rust movements. Future movement of stem rust races out of East Africa is considered likely as irrigated areas expand. Targeted surveillance and the use of mitigation strategies including the use of durable resistant varieties in regions of irrigation are required to reduce the risks of enhanced dispersal of stem rust to other regions.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 14-01-2020
DOI: 10.3390/V12010096
Abstract: In September 2016, clinical signs, indicative of bluetongue, were observed in sheep in Cyprus. Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) was detected in sheep, indicating the first incursion of this serotype into Cyprus. Following virus propagation, Nextera XT DNA libraries were sequenced on the MiSeq instrument. Full-genome sequences were obtained for five isolates CYP2016/01-05 and the percent of nucleotide sequence (% nt) identity between them ranged from 99.92% to 99.95%, which corresponded to a few (2–5) amino acid changes. Based on the complete coding sequence, the Israeli ISR2008/13 (98.42–98.45%) was recognised as the closest relative to CYP2016/01-05. However, the phylogenetic reconstruction of CYP2016/01-05 revealed that the possibility of reassortment in several segments: 4, 7, 9 and 10. Based on the available sequencing data, the incursion BTV-8 into Cyprus most likely occurred from the neighbouring countries (e.g., Israel, Lebanon, Syria, or Jordan), where multiple BTV serotypes were co-circulating rather than from Europe (e.g., France) where a single BTV-8 serotype was dominant. Supporting this hypothesis, atmospheric dispersion modelling identified wind-transport events during July–September that could have allowed the introduction of BTV-8 infected midges from Lebanon, Syria or Israel coastlines into the Larnaca region of Cyprus.
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 21-11-2018
DOI: 10.1136/ARCHDISCHILD-2018-315295
Abstract: To determine the socioeconomic gradient of birthweights in England with reference to the prescriptive INTERGROWTH-21 st Birthweight Standard. National cross-sectional study using data from Hospital Episode Statistics. National Health Service in England. All singleton babies, live born between 34 weeks’ gestation and 42 weeks’ gestation, between 1 April 2011 and 31 March 2012. Birthweight distribution of babies with a birthweight of th centile or th centile, that is, small for gestational age (SGA) or large for gestational age (LGA) using Index of Multiple Deprivation quintiles as a proxy for socioeconomic status. Of 508 230 babies born alive between 1 April 2011 and 31 March 2012, 38 838 (7.6%) were SGA and 81 026 (15.9%) were LGA. Median birthweight was 3405 g, median z-score was 0.25 (SD 1.06). Birthweight z-score demonstrated a social gradient, from 0.26 (SD 1.1) in the most deprived areas to 0.53 (1.0) in the least deprived. Women in the most deprived areas were twice as likely to have SGA babies using the INTERGROWTH-21 st chart (OR 1.94 95% CI 1.87 to 2.01) compared with those in the least deprived areas. If all women had the same rate of SGA equivalent to those living in the least deprived areas, approximately 12 410 (30%) fewer babies would be born SGA in England each year. This study gives a measure of the social gradient in singleton SGA and LGA babies across England using an international standard of newborn size at birth.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 25-07-2018
Abstract: In favorable atmospheric conditions, fires can produce pyrocumulonimbus cloud (pyroCb) in the form of deep convective columns resembling conventional thunderstorms, which may be accompanied by strong inflow, dangerous downbursts, and lightning strikes that can produce dangerous changes in fire behavior. PyroCb formation conditions are not well understood and are difficult to forecast. This paper presents a theoretical study of the thermodynamics of fire plumes to better understand the influence of a range of factors on plume condensation. Plume gases are considered to be undiluted at the fire source and approach 100% dilution at the plume top (neutral buoyancy). Plume condensation height changes are considered for this full range of dilution and for a given set of factors that include environmental temperature and humidity, fire temperature, and fire-moisture-to-heat ratios. The condensation heights are calculated and plotted as saturation point (SP) curves on thermodynamic diagrams. The position and slope of the SP curves provide insight into how plume condensation is affected by the environment thermodynamics and ratios of fire heat to moisture production. Plume temperature traces from large-eddy model simulations added to the diagrams provide additional insight into plume condensation heights and plume buoyancy at condensation. SP curves added to a mixed layer lifting condensation level on standard thermodynamic diagrams can be used to identify the minimum plume condensation height and buoyancy required for deep, moist, free convection to develop, which will aid pyroCb prediction.
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 12-07-2023
DOI: 10.1101/2023.07.11.548524
Abstract: As climate change leads to new areas being under threat from emerg-ing pests, there is increasing demand for approaches combining mechanistic models and geospatial information. Forecasting based on modelling can in-form surveillance, early warning and management. This paper introduces a novel framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and migra-tion using knowledge of pest biology, climate and remote sensing data, wind trajectories and desert locust survey data from Locust Hub (FAO). Fur-thermore, we propose an algorithm for forecasting short-term and long-term desert locust migration based on limited reporting data.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 28-02-2022
DOI: 10.3390/V14030502
Abstract: Bluetongue virus (BTV) and African horse sickness virus (AHSV) cause economically important diseases that are currently exotic to the United Kingdom (UK), but have significant potential for introduction and onward transmission. Given the susceptibility of animals kept in zoo collections to vector-borne diseases, a qualitative risk assessment for the introduction of BTV and AHSV to ZSL London Zoo was performed. Risk pathways for each virus were identified and assessed using published literature, animal import data and outputs from epidemiological models. Direct imports of infected animals, as well as wind-borne infected Culicoides, were considered as routes of incursion. The proximity of ongoing disease events in mainland Europe and proven capability of transmission to the UK places ZSL London Zoo at higher risk of BTV release and exposure (estimated as low to medium) than AHSV (estimated as very low to low). The recent long-range expansion of AHSV into Thailand from southern Africa highlights the need for vector competence studies of Palearctic Culicoides for AHSV to assess the risk of transmission in this region.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 11-2022
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.9526
Abstract: Globally, habitat loss or degradation is a major threat to many species, and those with specific habitat requirements are particularly vulnerable. Many species of wading birds (Charadrii) are dependent upon intertidal sites to feed, but, as a result of anthropogenic pressures, the prey landscape has changed at many estuaries. Behavioral adaptations may be able to buffer these changes. In this study over multiple seasons, we aimed to investigate the foraging behaviors of wintering Eurasian oystercatchers in the Exe Estuary where mussel beds, the preferred prey at this site, have almost disappeared in the last decade. From 2018 to 2021, GPS tracking devices were deployed on 24 oystercatchers, and the foraging locations of adults, sub‐adults, and juveniles were determined. Of the 12 birds tracked over multiple winter periods, 10 used the same foraging home ranges but a juvenile and sub‐adult changed locations interannually. The dominant prey species at key foraging sites were assessed, and we found that younger birds were more likely to visit sites with lower quality prey, likely due to being at a competitive disadvantage, and also to explore sites further away. In iduals were generally consistent in the areas of the estuary used in early and late winter, and over 90% of locations were recorded in the protected area boundary, which covers the sand and mudflats of the Exe. These findings suggest high specificity of the current protected area for oystercatchers in the Exe Estuary, although, if the prey landscape continues to decline, younger in iduals may provide the potential for adaptation by finding and foraging at additional sites. Continued monitoring of in idual behavior within populations that are facing dramatic changes to their prey is essential to understand how they may adapt and to develop suitable management plans to conserve threatened species.
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 17-12-2019
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: Australia
No related grants have been discovered for William Thurston.