ORCID Profile
0000-0002-2771-9977
Current Organisations
University of New Hampshire
,
Purdue University
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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 02-01-2020
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-02-2017
Abstract: Abstract. Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( 800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene ( ∼ 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4 × CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP – the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-2009
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE08069
Abstract: A profound global climate shift took place at the Eocene-Oligocene transition ( approximately 33.5 million years ago) when Cretaceous/early Palaeogene greenhouse conditions gave way to icehouse conditions. During this interval, changes in the Earth's orbit and a long-term drop in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations resulted in both the growth of Antarctic ice sheets to approximately their modern size and the appearance of Northern Hemisphere glacial ice. However, palaeoclimatic studies of this interval are contradictory: although some analyses indicate no major climatic changes, others imply cooler temperatures, increased seasonality and/or aridity. Climatic conditions in high northern latitudes over this interval are particularly poorly known. Here we present northern high-latitude terrestrial climate estimates for the Eocene to Oligocene interval, based on bioclimatic analysis of terrestrially derived spore and pollen assemblages preserved in marine sediments from the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. Our data indicate a cooling of approximately 5 degrees C in cold-month (winter) mean temperatures to 0-2 degrees C, and a concomitant increased seasonality before the Oi-1 glaciation event. These data indicate that a cooling component is indeed incorporated in the delta(18)O isotope shift across the Eocene-Oligocene transition. However, the relatively warm summer temperatures at that time mean that continental ice on East Greenland was probably restricted to alpine outlet glaciers.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020PA004054
Abstract: The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03–5.33 Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained, polar lified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are typically reconstructed between 300 and 600 ppm and were potentially higher during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (16.75–14.5 Ma). With surface temperature reconstructions pointing to substantial midlatitude and polar warmth, it is unclear what processes maintained the much weaker‐than‐modern equator‐to‐pole temperature difference. Here, we synthesize several Miocene climate modeling efforts together with available terrestrial and ocean surface temperature reconstructions. We evaluate the range of model‐data agreement, highlight robust mechanisms operating across Miocene modeling efforts and regions where differences across experiments result in a large spread in warming responses. Prescribed CO 2 is the primary factor controlling global warming across the ensemble. On average, elements other than CO 2 , such as Miocene paleogeography and ice sheets, raise global mean temperature by ∼2°C, with the spread in warming under a given CO 2 concentration (due to a combination of the spread in imposed boundary conditions and climate feedback strengths) equivalent to ∼1.2 times a CO 2 doubling. This study uses an ensemble of opportunity: models, boundary conditions, and reference data sets represent the state‐of‐art for the Miocene, but are inhomogeneous and not ideal for a formal intermodel comparison effort. Acknowledging this caveat, this study is nevertheless the first Miocene multi‐model, multi‐proxy comparison attempted so far. This study serves to take stock of the current progress toward simulating Miocene warmth while isolating remaining challenges that may be well served by community‐led efforts to coordinate modeling and data activities within a common analytical framework.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 16-09-2014
Abstract: Abstract. We describe a set of early Eocene (~ 55 Ma) climate model boundary conditions constructed in a self-consistent reference frame and incorporating recent data and methodologies. Given the growing need for uniform experimental design within the Eocene climate modelling community and the challenges faced in simulating the prominent features of Eocene climate, we make publicly available our data sets of Eocene topography, bathymetry, tidal dissipation, vegetation, aerosol distributions and river runoff. Major improvements in our boundary conditions over previous efforts include the implementation of the ANTscape palaeotopography of Antarctica, more accurate representations of the Drake Passage and Tasman Gateway, as well as an approximation of sub grid cell topographic variability. Our boundary conditions also include for the first time modelled estimates of Eocene aerosol distributions and tidal dissipation, both consistent with our palaeotopography and palaeobathymetry. The resolution of our data sets is unprecedented and will facilitate high resolution climate simulations. In light of the inherent uncertainties involved in reconstructing global boundary conditions for past time periods these data sets should be considered as one interpretation of the available data and users are encouraged to modify them according to their needs and interpretations. This paper marks the beginning of a process for reconstructing a set of accurate, open-access Eocene boundary conditions for use in climate models.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-01-2021
Abstract: Abstract. We present results from an ensemble of eight climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ∼ 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP www.deepmip.org, last access: 10 January 2021) thus, all models have been configured with the same paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 ∘C to Eocene warmth. Compared with results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations generally show a reduced spread of the global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration as well as an increased climate sensitivity on average. An energy balance analysis of the model ensemble indicates that global mean warming in the Eocene compared with the preindustrial period mostly arises from decreases in emissivity due to the elevated CO2 concentration (and associated water vapour and long-wave cloud feedbacks), whereas the reduction in the Eocene in terms of the meridional temperature gradient is primarily due to emissivity and albedo changes owing to the non-CO2 boundary conditions (i.e. the removal of the Antarctic ice sheet and changes in vegetation). Three of the models (the Community Earth System Model, CESM the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, model and the Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM) show results that are consistent with the proxies in terms of the global mean temperature, meridional SST gradient, and CO2, without prescribing changes to model parameters. In addition, many of the models agree well with the first-order spatial patterns in the SST proxies. However, at a more regional scale, the models lack skill. In particular, the modelled anomalies are substantially lower than those indicated by the proxies in the southwest Pacific here, modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are more consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying a possible inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large-scale features and model–data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for ex le the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability, and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography, orbital configuration, and aerosols.
Publisher: Geological Society of America
Date: 03-12-2010
DOI: 10.1130/G31208.1
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2012
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-01-2021
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 02-01-2020
DOI: 10.5194/CP-2019-149
Abstract: Abstract. We present results from an ensemble of seven climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ~ 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of DeepMIP (www.deepmip.org), and as such all models have been configured with identical paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 °C to Eocene warmth. Compared to results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations show reduced spread of global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble, for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration. In a marked departure from the results from previous simulations, at least two of the DeepMIP models (CESM and GFDL) are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature, and atmospheric CO2, and meridional SST gradients. The best agreement with global SST proxies from these models occurs at CO2 concentrations of around 2400 ppmv. At a more regional scale the models lack skill in reproducing the proxy SSTs, in particular in the southwest Pacific, around New Zealand and south Australia, where the modelled anomalies are substantially less than indicated by the proxies. However, in these regions modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying an inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large scale features and model-data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for ex le the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography and aerosols.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022PA004419
Abstract: The early Eocene (∼56–48 Myr ago) is characterized by high CO 2 estimates (1,200–2,500 ppmv) and elevated global temperatures (∼10°C–16°C higher than modern). However, the response of the hydrological cycle during the early Eocene is poorly constrained, especially in regions with sparse data coverage (e.g., Africa). Here, we present a study of African hydroclimate during the early Eocene, as simulated by an ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art climate models in the Deep‐time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). A comparison between the DeepMIP pre‐industrial simulations and modern observations suggests that model biases are model‐ and geographically dependent, however, these biases are reduced in the model ensemble mean. A comparison between the Eocene simulations and the pre‐industrial suggests that there is no obvious wetting or drying trend as the CO 2 increases. The results suggest that changes to the land sea mask (relative to modern) in the models may be responsible for the simulated increases in precipitation to the north of Eocene Africa. There is an increase in precipitation over equatorial and West Africa and associated drying over northern Africa as CO 2 rises. There are also important dynamical changes, with evidence that anticyclonic low‐level circulation is replaced by increased south‐westerly flow at high CO 2 levels. Lastly, a model‐data comparison using newly compiled quantitative climate estimates from paleobotanical proxy data suggests a marginally better fit with the reconstructions at lower levels of CO 2 .
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 18-05-2020
DOI: 10.5194/CP-2020-68
Abstract: Abstract. The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) from a largely ice-free greenhouse world to an icehouse climate with the first major glaciation of Antarctica was a phase of major climate and environmental change occurring ~34 million years ago (Ma) and lasting ~500 kyr. The change is marked by a global shift in deep sea δ18O representing a combination of deep-ocean cooling and global ice sheet growth. At the same time, multiple independent proxies for sea surface temperature indicate a surface ocean cooling, and major changes in global fauna and flora record a shift toward more cold-climate adapted species. The major explanations of this transition that have been suggested are a decline in atmospheric CO2, and changes to ocean gateways, while orbital forcing likely influenced the precise timing of the glaciation. This work reviews and synthesises proxy evidence of paleogeography, temperature, ice sheets, ocean circulation, and CO2 change from the marine and terrestrial realms. Furthermore, we quantitatively compare proxy records of change to an ensemble of model simulations of temperature change across the EOT. The model simulations compare three forcing mechanisms across the EOT: CO2 decrease, paleogeographic changes, and ice sheet growth. We find that CO2 forcing provides by far the best explanation of the combined proxy evidence, and based on our model ensemble, we estimate that a CO2 decrease of about 1.6× across the EOT (e.g. from 910 to 560 ppmv) achieves the best fit to the temperature change recorded in the proxies. This model-derived CO2 decrease is consistent with proxy estimates of CO2 decline at the EOT.
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 03-05-2010
Abstract: Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature T W , is surprisingly similar across erse climates today. T W never exceeds 31 °C. Any exceedence of 35 °C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11–12 °C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 °C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 02-12-2011
Abstract: Antarctica glaciation began soon after a large decrease in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide around 35 million years ago.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021PA004329
Abstract: Here, we compare the ocean overturning circulation of the early Eocene (47–56 Ma) in eight coupled climate model simulations from the Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) and investigate the causes of the observed inter‐model spread. The most common global meridional overturning circulation (MOC) feature of these simulations is the anticlockwise bottom cell, fed by sinking in the Southern Ocean. In the North Pacific, one model (GFDL) displays strong deepwater formation and one model (CESM) shows weak deepwater formation, while in the Atlantic two models show signs of weak intermediate water formation (MIROC and NorESM). The location of the Southern Ocean deepwater formation sites varies among models and relates to small differences in model geometry of the Southern Ocean gateways. Globally, convection occurs in the basins with smallest local freshwater gain from the atmosphere. The global MOC is insensitive to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from 1× (i.e., 280 ppm) to 3× (840 ppm) pre‐industrial levels. Only two models have simulations with higher CO 2 (i.e., CESM and GFDL) and these show ergent responses, with a collapsed and active MOC, respectively, possibly due to differences in spin‐up conditions. Combining the multiple model results with available proxy data on abyssal ocean circulation highlights that strong Southern Hemisphere‐driven overturning is the most likely feature of the early Eocene. In the North Atlantic, unlike the present day, neither model results nor proxy data suggest deepwater formation in the open ocean during the early Eocene, while the evidence for deepwater formation in the North Pacific remains inconclusive.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 26-10-2020
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values ( .5 per doubling CO2).
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 10-2008
DOI: 10.1029/2008GC002046
Publisher: Geological Society of America
Date: 06-2012
DOI: 10.1130/G33384Y.1
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 10-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2019PA003632
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-01-2021
Abstract: Abstract. The Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) was a climate shift from a largely ice-free greenhouse world to an icehouse climate, involving the first major glaciation of Antarctica and global cooling occurring ∼34 million years ago (Ma) and lasting ∼790 kyr. The change is marked by a global shift in deep-sea δ18O representing a combination of deep-ocean cooling and growth in land ice volume. At the same time, multiple independent proxies for ocean temperature indicate sea surface cooling, and major changes in global fauna and flora record a shift toward more cold-climate-adapted species. The two principal suggested explanations of this transition are a decline in atmospheric CO2 and changes to ocean gateways, while orbital forcing likely influenced the precise timing of the glaciation. Here we review and synthesise proxy evidence of palaeogeography, temperature, ice sheets, ocean circulation and CO2 change from the marine and terrestrial realms. Furthermore, we quantitatively compare proxy records of change to an ensemble of climate model simulations of temperature change across the EOT. The simulations compare three forcing mechanisms across the EOT: CO2 decrease, palaeogeographic changes and ice sheet growth. Our model ensemble results demonstrate the need for a global cooling mechanism beyond the imposition of an ice sheet or palaeogeographic changes. We find that CO2 forcing involving a large decrease in CO2 of ca. 40 % (∼325 ppm drop) provides the best fit to the available proxy evidence, with ice sheet and palaeogeographic changes playing a secondary role. While this large decrease is consistent with some CO2 proxy records (the extreme endmember of decrease), the positive feedback mechanisms on ice growth are so strong that a modest CO2 decrease beyond a critical threshold for ice sheet initiation is well capable of triggering rapid ice sheet growth. Thus, the litude of CO2 decrease signalled by our data–model comparison should be considered an upper estimate and perhaps artificially large, not least because the current generation of climate models do not include dynamic ice sheets and in some cases may be under-sensitive to CO2 forcing. The model ensemble also cannot exclude the possibility that palaeogeographic changes could have triggered a reduction in CO2.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-01-2022
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2009
DOI: 10.1029/2008GL036571
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 25-10-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2011PA002143
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 18-05-2020
Publisher: Geological Society of America
Date: 02-2009
DOI: 10.1130/G25200A.1
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 21-02-2012
DOI: 10.1029/2010PA002041
Location: United States of America
Location: United States of America
No related grants have been discovered for Matthew Huber.