ORCID Profile
0000-0001-5598-5327
Current Organisation
Northumbria University
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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-02-2017
Abstract: Abstract. Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( 800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene ( ∼ 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4 × CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP – the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 31-08-2012
Abstract: Bayon et al . (Reports, 9 March 2012, p. 1219) interpreted unusually high aluminum-potassium ratio values in an Atlantic sediment core as indicating anthropogenic deforestation around 2500 years before the present (B.P.). We argue that there is no terrestrial evidence for forest destruction by humans and that the third millennium B.P. rainforest crisis can be clearly attributed mostly to climatic change.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-2020
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-02-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-022-00369-X
Abstract: The stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is threatened by the incursion of warm Circumpolar Deepwater which flows southwards via cross-shelf troughs towards the coast there melting ice shelves. However, the onset of this oceanic forcing on the development and evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains poorly understood. Here, we use single- and multichannel seismic reflection profiles to investigate the architecture of a sediment body on the shelf of the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We estimate the formation age of this sediment body to be around the Eocene-Oligocene Transition and find that it possesses the geometry and depositional pattern of a plastered sediment drift. We suggest this indicates a southward inflow of deep water which probably supplied heat and, thus, prevented West Antarctic Ice Sheet advance beyond the coast at this time. We conclude that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has likely experienced a strong oceanic influence on its dynamics since its initial formation.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-01-2021
Abstract: Abstract. The Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) was a climate shift from a largely ice-free greenhouse world to an icehouse climate, involving the first major glaciation of Antarctica and global cooling occurring ∼34 million years ago (Ma) and lasting ∼790 kyr. The change is marked by a global shift in deep-sea δ18O representing a combination of deep-ocean cooling and growth in land ice volume. At the same time, multiple independent proxies for ocean temperature indicate sea surface cooling, and major changes in global fauna and flora record a shift toward more cold-climate-adapted species. The two principal suggested explanations of this transition are a decline in atmospheric CO2 and changes to ocean gateways, while orbital forcing likely influenced the precise timing of the glaciation. Here we review and synthesise proxy evidence of palaeogeography, temperature, ice sheets, ocean circulation and CO2 change from the marine and terrestrial realms. Furthermore, we quantitatively compare proxy records of change to an ensemble of climate model simulations of temperature change across the EOT. The simulations compare three forcing mechanisms across the EOT: CO2 decrease, palaeogeographic changes and ice sheet growth. Our model ensemble results demonstrate the need for a global cooling mechanism beyond the imposition of an ice sheet or palaeogeographic changes. We find that CO2 forcing involving a large decrease in CO2 of ca. 40 % (∼325 ppm drop) provides the best fit to the available proxy evidence, with ice sheet and palaeogeographic changes playing a secondary role. While this large decrease is consistent with some CO2 proxy records (the extreme endmember of decrease), the positive feedback mechanisms on ice growth are so strong that a modest CO2 decrease beyond a critical threshold for ice sheet initiation is well capable of triggering rapid ice sheet growth. Thus, the litude of CO2 decrease signalled by our data–model comparison should be considered an upper estimate and perhaps artificially large, not least because the current generation of climate models do not include dynamic ice sheets and in some cases may be under-sensitive to CO2 forcing. The model ensemble also cannot exclude the possibility that palaeogeographic changes could have triggered a reduction in CO2.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 17-01-2022
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-06-2022
Abstract: Abstract. Reconciling palaeodata with model simulations of the Pliocene climate is essential for understanding a world with atmospheric CO2 concentration near 400 ppmv (parts per million by volume). Both models and data indicate an lified warming of the high latitudes during the Pliocene however, terrestrial data suggest that Pliocene northern high-latitude temperatures were much higher than can be simulated by models. We focus on the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP) and show that understanding the northern high-latitude terrestrial temperatures is particularly difficult for the coldest months. Here the temperatures obtained from models and different proxies can vary by more than 20 ∘C. We refer to this mismatch as the “warm winter paradox”. Analysis suggests the warm winter paradox could be due to a number of factors including model structural uncertainty, proxy data not being strongly constrained by winter temperatures, uncertainties in data reconstruction methods, and the fact that the Pliocene northern high-latitude climate does not have a modern analogue. Refinements to model boundary conditions or proxy dating are unlikely to contribute significantly to the resolution of the warm winter paradox. For the Pliocene high-latitude terrestrial summer temperatures, models and different proxies are in good agreement. Those factors which cause uncertainty in winter temperatures are shown to be much less important for the summer. Until some of the uncertainties in winter high-latitude Pliocene temperatures can be reduced, we suggest a data–model comparison should focus on the summer. This is expected to give more meaningful and accurate results than a data–model comparison which focuses on the annual mean.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-01-2022
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 17-01-2022
DOI: 10.5194/CP-2021-186
Abstract: Abstract. Reconciling palaeodata with model simulations of the Pliocene climate is essential for understanding a world with atmospheric CO2 concentration near 400 parts per million by volume. Both models and data indicate an lified warming of the high latitudes during the Pliocene, however terrestrial data suggests Pliocene high latitude temperatures were much higher than can be simulated by models. Here we show that understanding the Pliocene high latitude terrestrial temperatures is particularly difficult for the coldest months, where the temperatures obtained from models and different proxies can vary by more than 20 °C. We refer to this mismatch as the ‘warm winter paradox’. Analysis suggests the warm winter paradox could be due to a number of factors including: model structural uncertainty, proxy data not being strongly constrained by winter temperatures, uncertainties on data reconstruction methods and also that the Pliocene high latitude climate does not have a modern analogue. Refinements to model boundary conditions or proxy dating are unlikely to contribute significantly to the resolution of the warm winter paradox. For the Pliocene, high latitude, terrestrial, summer temperatures, models and different proxies are in good agreement. Those factors which cause uncertainty on winter temperatures are shown to be much less important for the summer. Until some of the uncertainties on winter, high latitude, Pliocene temperatures can be reduced, we suggest a data-model comparison should focus on the summer. This is expected to give more meaningful and accurate results than a data-model comparison which focuses on the annual mean.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 18-05-2020
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022PA004419
Abstract: The early Eocene (∼56–48 Myr ago) is characterized by high CO 2 estimates (1,200–2,500 ppmv) and elevated global temperatures (∼10°C–16°C higher than modern). However, the response of the hydrological cycle during the early Eocene is poorly constrained, especially in regions with sparse data coverage (e.g., Africa). Here, we present a study of African hydroclimate during the early Eocene, as simulated by an ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art climate models in the Deep‐time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). A comparison between the DeepMIP pre‐industrial simulations and modern observations suggests that model biases are model‐ and geographically dependent, however, these biases are reduced in the model ensemble mean. A comparison between the Eocene simulations and the pre‐industrial suggests that there is no obvious wetting or drying trend as the CO 2 increases. The results suggest that changes to the land sea mask (relative to modern) in the models may be responsible for the simulated increases in precipitation to the north of Eocene Africa. There is an increase in precipitation over equatorial and West Africa and associated drying over northern Africa as CO 2 rises. There are also important dynamical changes, with evidence that anticyclonic low‐level circulation is replaced by increased south‐westerly flow at high CO 2 levels. Lastly, a model‐data comparison using newly compiled quantitative climate estimates from paleobotanical proxy data suggests a marginally better fit with the reconstructions at lower levels of CO 2 .
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 18-05-2020
DOI: 10.5194/CP-2020-68
Abstract: Abstract. The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) from a largely ice-free greenhouse world to an icehouse climate with the first major glaciation of Antarctica was a phase of major climate and environmental change occurring ~34 million years ago (Ma) and lasting ~500 kyr. The change is marked by a global shift in deep sea δ18O representing a combination of deep-ocean cooling and global ice sheet growth. At the same time, multiple independent proxies for sea surface temperature indicate a surface ocean cooling, and major changes in global fauna and flora record a shift toward more cold-climate adapted species. The major explanations of this transition that have been suggested are a decline in atmospheric CO2, and changes to ocean gateways, while orbital forcing likely influenced the precise timing of the glaciation. This work reviews and synthesises proxy evidence of paleogeography, temperature, ice sheets, ocean circulation, and CO2 change from the marine and terrestrial realms. Furthermore, we quantitatively compare proxy records of change to an ensemble of model simulations of temperature change across the EOT. The model simulations compare three forcing mechanisms across the EOT: CO2 decrease, paleogeographic changes, and ice sheet growth. We find that CO2 forcing provides by far the best explanation of the combined proxy evidence, and based on our model ensemble, we estimate that a CO2 decrease of about 1.6× across the EOT (e.g. from 910 to 560 ppmv) achieves the best fit to the temperature change recorded in the proxies. This model-derived CO2 decrease is consistent with proxy estimates of CO2 decline at the EOT.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Ulrich Salzmann.