ORCID Profile
0000-0001-7051-8030
Current Organisations
Universität Hamburg
,
Universität Konstanz
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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 31-05-2021
DOI: 10.5194/CP-2021-61
Abstract: Abstract. In this study, we have analyzed extreme daily precipitation during the pre-industrial period from 1501 BCE to 1849 CE in simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2. A peak-over-threshold (POT) extreme value analysis is employed to examine characteristics of extreme precipitation and to identify connections of extreme precipitation with the external forcing and with internal modes of variability. The POT analysis shows that extreme precipitation with similar statistical characteristics, i.e., the probability density distributions, tends to spatially cluster. There are differences in the distribution of extreme precipitation between the Pacific and Atlantic sectors, and between the northern-high and southern-low latitudes. Extreme precipitation during the pre-industrial period is largely influenced by the modes of internal variability, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific North American and Pacific South American patterns among others. In general, the modes of variability exhibit significant connection to extreme precipitation in the vicinity to their regions of action. The exception is ENSO which shows more widespread influence on extreme precipitation across the Earth. Effects of the changes in the orbital parameters on extreme precipitation are rather weak compared to those of the modes of internal variability. Still, some regions in central Africa, southern Asia and the tropical Atlantic ocean present statistically significant associations with the changes in the orbital parameters, implying that in these regions, extreme precipitation has increased linearly during the 3351 year pre-industrial period. Tropical volcanic eruptions affect extreme precipitation more clearly on the short term up to a few years. Although, eruptions alter both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation, more apparent changes are found in the frequency of extreme precipitation. After eruptions, the return periods of extreme precipitation increase over the extratropical regions and the tropical Pacific, while a decrease is found in other regions. The post-eruption frequency changes of extreme precipitation are associated with ENSO, which itself is influenced by tropical eruptions. Overall, the results show that climate simulations are useful to complement the information on the pre-industrial extreme precipitation, as it can elucidate statistical characteristics and long-term connections of extreme events with natural variability.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-03-2021
DOI: 10.1007/S00704-021-03517-Z
Abstract: In this study, we analyse the influence of North Atlantic midwinter storm track suppressions on European synoptic temperature and precipitation anomalies to determine the large-scale conditions relevant for the so-called Christmas thaw. We diagnose this relation in daily ERA5 reanalysis data in the spatial resolution of 0.25 ∘ between 1979 and 2018. To access synoptic time scales, a 3–10-day band-pass filter is applied. An index for the suppression is defined by the upper tropospheric Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) anomalies in the North Atlantic. We define the strong jet stream years as the year exceeding the 75% of the winter seasonal values at 250 hPa. In winters with strong jet activity, the storm track suppression is found, in agreement with the barotropic governor mechanism. Composites of European surface temperature and precipitation for low index values reveal weakly warmer conditions during winter (DJF) in Central Europe and the British Isles and a distinct cooling in Northern Europe. In the 1-month interval during December 15 to January 15, the warming is more pronounced. The clearest signal is the precipitation increase with a magnitude of 1 mm/day in the Mediterranean region.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 08-10-2021
Abstract: Abstract. In this study, we analyze extreme daily precipitation during the pre-industrial period from 1501 BCE to 1849 CE in simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2. A peak-over-threshold (POT) extreme value analysis is employed to examine characteristics of extreme precipitation and to identify connections of extreme precipitation with the external forcing and with modes of internal variability. The POT analysis shows that extreme precipitation with similar statistical characteristics, i.e., the probability density distributions, tends to cluster spatially. There are differences in the distribution of extreme precipitation between the Pacific and Atlantic sectors and between the northern high and southern low latitudes. Extreme precipitation during the pre-industrial period is largely influenced by modes of internal variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific North American, and Pacific South American patterns, among others, and regional surface temperatures. In general, the modes of variability exhibit a statistically significant connection to extreme precipitation in the vicinity to their regions of action. The exception is ENSO, which shows more widespread influence on extreme precipitation across the Earth. In addition, the regions with which extreme precipitation is more associated, either by a mode of variability or by the regional surface temperature, are distinguished. Regional surface temperatures are associated with extreme precipitation over lands at the extratropical latitudes and over the tropical oceans. In other regions, the influence of modes of variability is still dominant. Effects of the changes in the orbital parameters on extreme precipitation are rather weak compared to those of the modes of internal variability and of the regional surface temperatures. Still, some regions in central Africa, southern Asia, and the tropical Atlantic ocean show statistically significant connections between extreme precipitation and orbital forcing, implying that in these regions, extreme precipitation has increased linearly during the 3351-year pre-industrial period. Tropical volcanic eruptions affect extreme precipitation more clearly in the short term up to a few years, altering both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation. However, more apparent changes are found in the frequency than the intensity of extreme precipitation. After eruptions, the return periods of extreme precipitation increase over the extratropical regions and the tropical Pacific, while a decrease is found in other regions. The post-eruption changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation are associated with ENSO, which itself is influenced by tropical eruptions. Overall, the results show that climate simulations are useful to complement the information on pre-industrial extreme precipitation, as they elucidate statistical characteristics and long-term connections of extreme events with natural variability.
No related grants have been discovered for Richard Blender.