ORCID Profile
0000-0003-2703-4596
Current Organisations
Auckland University of Technology
,
Motu Economic & Public Policy Research Trust
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Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2020
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-2012
Publisher: Center for Global Trade Analysis
Date: 30-06-2018
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 22-12-2020
DOI: 10.3389/FENVS.2020.599231
Abstract: In this study, we estimate the economic impacts of China's official carbon-mitigation targets, in connection with Hong Kong's potential participation in a proposed national emissions trading scheme. We find that moderate intensity-reduction targets emulating China's pledged Paris Agreement commitment would incur much larger policy-compliance costs in Hong Kong (0.1–2.5% of baseline gross domestic product) than in Mainland China (0.1–0.7%) in each of the modeled years 2021 to 2030 when each economy operates its own independent carbon market. By comparison, an integrated carbon market enables Hong Kong to achieve the same reduction goal at up to 78% lower costs compared to an independent market, and this is achieved without significantly affecting the Mainland's economy. These savings in compliance costs for Hong Kong are greater when pre-integration local carbon prices in both economies are subject to a larger gap. Effectively, the cheaper pre-integration carbon prices in the Mainland indirectly subsidize the Hong Kong economy in the initial years of the integration scenario, buffering the policy shock. In sum, an integrated carbon market in China would improve overall efficiency at the national level, but the benefits are biased toward Hong Kong. This finding suggests that it is in the city's interest to play a more active role in cross-border collaboration on climate mitigation and emissions trading. JEL classification: C68, Q42, Q52, Q54
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH
Date: 14-01-2011
Abstract: The potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) restrictions in some nations to increased emissions in other nations, or leakage, is a contentious issue in climate change negotiations. We evaluate the impact of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) outlined in the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R. 2454), using an economy-wide model. For 2025, we find that BCAs reduce leakage by up to two-thirds, but result in only modest reductions in global emissions and significantly reduce welfare. In contrast, BCA-equivalent leakage reductions can be achieved by very small emission charges or efficiency improvements in nations targeted by BCAs, which have negligible welfare effects. We conclude that BCAs are a costly method to reduce leakage, but may be an effective coercion strategy.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 06-2006
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2016
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 16-09-2014
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-2006
Publisher: American Economic Association
Date: 05-2013
Abstract: Emissions restrictions in one region may decrease emissions elsewhere (negative leakage), as increased demand for capital and labor to abate emissions in constrained regions may reduce output in unconstrained regions. We investigate leakage in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models under alternative fossil fuel supply elasticity values and factor mobility assumptions. We find that fossil fuel supply elasticities must be equal or close to infinity to generate net negative leakage. As empirical estimates for fossil fuel supply elasticities are less than 1, we conclude that leakage estimates from CGE models are unlikely to be negative.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2014
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 28-09-2010
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-10-2011
DOI: 10.1093/AJAE/AAR113
Publisher: Annual Reviews
Date: 10-2010
DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV.RESOURCE.012809.104234
Abstract: We consider the large range of estimated costs of meeting U.S. climate policy targets. Some of this range is due to different studies using different cost measures, and in principle such differences could be eliminated by more careful comparisons and greater transparency in studies that estimate costs. Still another source of differences is how the proposed policy is represented. Here, again, this source of difference could be reduced by more careful comparison and by better definition of implementation details. Even if these sources of difference could be eliminated, there would remain substantial uncertainties because of the difficulties of projecting economic activity over the long horizon of proposed policies. We show the importance of several of these factors, using a consistent modeling framework.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2022
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH
Date: 18-01-2008
Publisher: World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd
Date: 02-2011
DOI: 10.1142/S201000781100019X
Abstract: In the recent United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations, sectoral trading was proposed to encourage early action and spur investment in low carbon technologies in developing countries. This mechanism involves including a sector from one or more nations in an international cap-and-trade system. We analyze trade in carbon permits between the Chinese electricity sector and a US economy-wide cap-and-trade program using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. In 2030, the US purchases permits valued at $42 billion from China, which represents 46% of its capped emissions. In China, sectoral trading increases the price of electricity and reduces aggregate electricity generation, especially from coal. However, sectoral trading induces only moderate increases in generation from nuclear and renewables. We also observe increases in emission from other sectors. In the US, the availability of cheap emissions permits reduces the cost of climate policy and increases electricity generation.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2013
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2014
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2021
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-2008
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-02-2018
DOI: 10.1111/JIEC.12734
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2012
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2011
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2015
Publisher: World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt
Date: 08-2019
DOI: 10.1142/S201000781950009X
Abstract: We employ a numerical economy-wide model of India with energy sector detail to evaluate the impact of achieving India’s commitments to the Paris Climate Agreement. We simulate targets for reducing CO 2 emissions intensity of GDP via an economy-wide CO 2 price and for increasing non-fossil electricity capacity via a Renewable Portfolio Standard. We find that compared with the no policy scenario in 2030, the average cost per unit of emissions reduced is lowest under a CO 2 pricing regime. A pure RPS costs more than 10 times the cost of a CO 2 pricing regime. Projected electricity demand in 2030 decreases by 8% under the CO 2 price, while introducing an RPS further suppresses electricity demand. Importantly, a reduction in the costs of wind and solar power induced by favorable policies may result in cost convergence across instruments, paving the way for more aggressive decarbonization policies in the future.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2009
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2015
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 16-04-2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-08-2022
DOI: 10.1007/S10666-022-09848-Z
Abstract: Plastic pollution is a big source of concern around the world. Research to date has focused on the types of plastic in the environment and the processing of plastic waste. For policymakers and consumers to be informed decision makers, they need to understand the industries which use plastics and the plastic intensity of those industries. Using input–output data for the USA, we calculate the plastic intensity (the value of plastic inputs per dollar of output) of 415 non-plastic industries for 13 types of plastic. We find the most plastic intensive industries are related to clothing and fabric manufacturing. This is true for aggregate plastics as well as plastics most likely to contribute to pollution. The high plastic intensity of the clothing and fabric industries is consistent with the abundance of clothing-related microplastics found in waterways. The results indicate that policies focused on consumer-facing plastics such as plastic bags do not address key plastic pollution pathways, and can help policymakers and consumers make decisions that improve environmental outcomes.
Publisher: International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE)
Date: 04-2015
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 14-09-2013
Publisher: World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt
Date: 08-2019
DOI: 10.1142/S2010007819500106
Abstract: Using an economy-wide model, we evaluate the impact of policies to meet South Korea’s Paris pledge to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37% relative those under business as usual (BAU) in 2030. Simulated BAU emissions in 2030 are 840.8 million metric tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e), indicating that economy-wide emissions should be constrained to 529.7 MtCO 2 e. Under South Korea’s Emissions Trading System (KETS) and fuel economy standards, a 2030 carbon price of $88/tCO 2 e is needed to meet this goal. Without considering benefits from avoided climate damages, these policies reduce 2030 GDP by $21.5 billion (1.0%) and consumer welfare by 8.1 billion (0.7%). Declines in sectoral production are largest for fossil-based energy sectors and chemical, rubber and plastic products, and iron and steel sectors.
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 10-2016
DOI: 10.1111/J.1740-9713.2016.00965.X
Abstract: A statistical analysis has inspired a change in how a major rugby tournament awards league points. Niven Winchester tells the story and discusses its possible implications
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 09-07-2011
Abstract: This study aimed to determine (i) risk factors for postdischarge falls and (ii) the effect of inpatient falls prevention education on rates of falls after discharge. Participants (n = 343) were a prospective cohort nested within a randomized controlled trial (n = 1,206) of falls prevention patient education in hospital compared with usual care. Participants were followed up for 6 months after discharge and falls recorded via a falls diary and monthly telephone calls. Potential falls risk factors were assessed at point of discharge and at 6 months postdischarge using a telephone survey. There were 276 falls among 138 (40.2%) participants in the 6 months following discharge (4.52/1,000 person days) of which 150 were injurious falls (2.46/1,000 person days). Pairwise comparisons found no significant differences between groups in rates of falls after adjustment for confounding variables. Independent risk factors for all falls outcomes were male gender, history of falls prior to hospital admission, fall during hospital admission, depressed mood at discharge, using a walking aid at discharge, and receiving assistance with activities of daily living at 6 months following discharge. Receiving assistance with activities of daily living significantly reduced the risk of falls and injurious falls for high risk patients. Older patients are at increased risk of falls and falls injuries following discharge. Education that effectively reduced inpatient falls appears to have no ongoing protective effect after discharge. Independent risk factors for falls in this population differ from both hospital and general community settings.
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: 2008
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan UK
Date: 2008
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 16-11-2012
Abstract: We estimate the impact of additional costs imposed on airlines by the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading System (ETS) on tourist arrivals in 26 Caribbean states. At an EU emission allowance price of €10, we find that the policy will, on average, increase return airfares from Europe to the Caribbean by $17 for indirect flights and $21 for direct flights. These price changes reduce region-wide arrivals to the Caribbean from the EU by between 1.4% and 2%, and decrease total arrivals (from all regions) by less than 0.4%. The decrease in total arrivals is the largest for Martinique (1.7%), and relatively large decreases are also predicted for Antigua and Barbuda, Bonaire, Barbados, Curacao, and Suriname. We conclude that the EU ETS will have a moderate impact on visitor arrivals relative to the United Kingdom’s Air Passenger Duty (APD) and the European financial crisis.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2017
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 10-2010
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2007
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-06-2018
DOI: 10.1111/TWEC.12679
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 10-2006
Location: United States of America
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Niven Winchester.