ORCID Profile
0000-0001-6651-2023
Current Organisation
Australian National University
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Publisher: The Russian Academy of Sciences
Date: 20-03-2019
DOI: 10.15356/2076-6734-2019-1-49-58
Abstract: The Kolka Glacier, which rushed down the Genaldon valley on September 20, 2002 (North Ossetia), is now recovering after this catastrophe. One of the most important ways to predict a new disaster is to determine the rate of ice accumulation of the new glacier and to monitor the glacier volume regularly, since its trigger mechanisms have not yet been fully studied. Recent changes of the Kolka Glacier were investigated by means of ground stereoscopic photography. The field works were carried out in 2014, 2016 and 2017. Shooting was made manually with a digital camera Canon 5D Mark II (without using a tripod) at arbitrary points, the distance between which did not exceed 100 m. The reference points were placed on the elevated relief forms on the glacier surface and coordinated by a differential GNSS receiver in the "fast static" mode. Laboratory processing of the photos was performed using Agisoft Photoscan software in automatic mode, except for the procedure of identification of reference points on stereo images. The processing made possible to obtain digital models of the glacier surface in Geo-TIFF format, the vertical error of which amounted to 0.7 m, while the horizontal one – 2.3 m. In 2014–2017, the maximal increase in height of the surface (up to 30 m) was recorded in the low part of the glacier tongue that was the result of advancing of the Kolka front along the ice-free surface. Mean annual increase in the surface elevation was equal to 2.2 m/year. Lowering of the surface in some areas may be explained by the slowing-down of the glacier flow rate, which led to the appearance of thermokarst. The glacier volume increased by 7.4±0.7 million m3. As a result, the glacier tongue advanced by 50–70 m. Average over 2014–2017 increasing in the surface elevation (2.2 m/year) was slightly smaller than in 2004–2014 (3 m/year). Quick growth of the Kolka Gacier contrasts sharply with decreasing of volume of the representative Caucasus, Djankuat and Garabashi, over the same period.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 28-09-2021
DOI: 10.1111/PADR.12437
Abstract: The twenty‐first century marked the beginning of rapid health improvements in Russia. In the late 2000s and the 2010s, there was already a moderate decrease in inter‐oblast mortality disparities, with the exception of the growing life expectancy (LE) advantage of Moscow and Saint Petersburg. We have used newly available data to explore LE changes from 2003–2005 to 2015–2017 and determinants of LE differences across settlements of different types and population sizes. We distinguished between three major segments of the LE distribution: Moscow and Saint Petersburg at the top, large‐ and medium‐sized cities in the middle, and smaller urban and rural areas lagging behind. The LE differences among these three groups increased, but the within‐group differences decreased. The gaps between bigger cities and the “periphery” within oblasts grew, and this part of the total dispersion had increased substantially by 2015–2017. Education, together with population size, explained 62 percent (for females) and 67 percent (for males) of LE variation across 292 geographic units in 2015–2017. Our results suggest that slower health progress in small urban and rural areas is an important obstacle to further mortality reduction at the national level and is a matter of public health concern.
Publisher: Russian Geographical Society
Date: 2015
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 08-2018
DOI: 10.1093/IJE/DYY146
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2022
Publisher: National Research University, Higher School of Economics (HSE)
Date: 29-12-2017
DOI: 10.17323/DEMREVIEW.V4I5.8566
Abstract: High premature mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its long-term negative trends are one of the main reasons for Russia's lag behind the developed countries in life expectancy, especially of its female population. Despite the decline in mortality since 2003, CVD mortality rates at particular ages (30-74 years for males and 30-49 for females) are still higher than in 1970. Decomposition of long-term changes in life expectancy in Russia shows a negative contribution of changes in CVD mortality for men (-1.0 years in 1972-2010) and a small positive contribution for women (+0.7 years from 1972 to 2010). The mortality structure within the full class of cardiovascular diseases in Russia is significantly different from that observed in the countries with the lowest level of CVD mortality. Ischemic heart disease constitutes more than half of all deaths, and this share, in contrast to Western countries, is tending to rise. Second place belongs to deaths from cerebrovascular diseases, the share of which is declining, but remains significantly higher than in Western countries. The share of deaths from other cardiovascular diseases accounts for about 50% of all CVD mortality in Western countries, while in Russia it is only about 15%, but these are characterized by a very low age at death. Regional patterns of CVD mortality in Russia are discussed, as well as the quality of statistics on causes of death and changes in the coding practices in the Russian Federation.
Publisher: Pleiades Publishing Ltd
Date: 04-2018
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 11-2019
Abstract: Prior studies on spatial inequalities in mortality in Russia were restricted to the highest level of administrative ision, ignoring variations within the regions. Using mortality data for 2239 districts, this study is the first analysis to capture the scale of the mortality ide at a more detailed level. Age-standardised death rates are calculated using aggregated deaths for 2008–2012 and population exposures from the 2010 census. Inequality indices and decomposition are applied to quantify both the total mortality disparities across the districts and the contributions of the variations between and within regions. Regional variations in mortality mask one-third (males) and one-half (females) of the inequalities observed at the district level. A comparison of the 5% of in iduals residing in the districts with the highest and the lowest mortality shows a gap of 15.5 years for males and 10.3 years for females. The lowest life expectancy levels are in the shrinking areas of the Far East and Northwest of Russia. The highest life expectancy clusters are in the intercity districts of Moscow and Saint Petersburg, and in several science cities. Life expectancy in these best-practice districts is close to the national averages of Poland and Estonia, but is still substantially below the averages in Western countries. The large between-regional and within-regional disparities suggest that national-level mortality could be lowered if these disparities are reduced by improving health in the laggard areas. This can be achieved by introducing policies that promote health convergence both within and between the Russian regions.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-01-2020
DOI: 10.1111/DAR.13037
Abstract: Eastern Europe is known to suffer from a large burden of alcohol-related mortality. However, persisting unfavourable conditions at the national level mask variation at the sub-national level. We aim to explore spatial patterns of cause-specific mortality across four post-communist countries: Belarus, Lithuania, Poland and Russia (European part). We use official mortality data routinely collected over 1179 districts and cities. The analysis refers to males aged 20-64 years and covers the period 2006-2014. Mortality variation is mainly assessed by means of the standardised mortality ratio. Getis-Ord Gi* statistic is employed to detect hot and cold spots of alcohol-related mortality. Alcohol-related mortality exhibits a gradient from very high levels in northwestern Russia to low levels in southern Poland. Spatial transitions from higher to lower mortality are not explicitly demarcated by national boundaries. Within these countries, hot spots of alcohol-related mortality dominate the territories of northwestern and western Russia, eastern and northwestern Belarus, southeastern Lithuania, and eastern and central Poland. The observed mortality gradient is likely associated with the spread of alcohol epidemics from the European part of Russia to the other countries, which appears to have started more than a century ago. Contemporary socioeconomic and demographic factors should be taken into account when developing anti-alcohol policies. The same is true for the peculiarities of culture, norms, traditions and behavioural patterns observed in specific geographical areas of the four countries. Reducing alcohol-related harm in the areas identified as hot spots should be prioritised.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2022
Publisher: National Research University, Higher School of Economics (HSE)
Date: 04-2019
DOI: 10.17323/DEMREVIEW.V6I1.9116
Abstract: За прошедшее десятилетие в России существенно увеличилось число медицинских организаций, выполняющих высокотехнологичные малоинвазивные операции при остром коронарном синдроме – чрескожные коронарные вмешательства (ЧКВ). В данной работе мы оцениваем степень влияния географических барьеров на доступность населения к этому наиболее эффективному способу лечения острого коронарного синдрома, в том числе инфаркта миокарда. Нами была собрана информация о медицинских организациях, выполнявших ЧКВ в 2010 и 2015 гг., а также данные о численности населения муниципальных районов и городских округов в России. Методами сетевого анализа было оценено время транспортировки и расстояние от физического центра каждого муниципального района/городского округа до ближайшего ЧКВ- центра в России. Расчеты были выполнены с использованием графа улично-дорожной сети В период с 2010 по 2015 г. число ЧКВ-центров в России увеличилось со 144 до 260. Медианное время доезда до ближайшего ЧКВ-центра составило 48 минут в 2015 г. (в 2010 г. ‒ 73 минуты). Две трети городского населения в 2015 г. могли быть доставлены в ближайший ЧКВ-центр за 60 минут и быстрее, а среди сельского населения такую возможность имела только одна пятая часть потенциальных пациентов. Создание 67 новых ЧКВ-центров в тех городских округах, где в настоящий момент имеется их дефицит, увеличит долю населения, находящегося в 60-минутной зоне доезда до ЧКВ- центра, до 62%, что эквивалентно 5,7 млн человек, для которых на данный момент невозможен своевременный доступ к данному виду вмешательства. В период между 2010 и 2015 г. происходило значительное, но неравномерные сокращение времени доезда до ЧКВ-центров. Несмотря на позитивные тенденции, Россия еще не приблизилась к уровню доступа, наблюдающегося в сопоставимых странах с большой территорией и неравномерно размещенным населением, таких как Австралия и Канада. Открытие относительно небольшого числа новых ЧКВ-центров (отделений) могло бы существенно улучшить доступ к медицинской помощи, тем самым сократив имеющееся неравенство.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-11-2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-08-2016
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 08-02-2013
Location: Russian Federation
Location: No location found
No related grants have been discovered for Sergey Timonin.