ORCID Profile
0000-0002-1617-350X
Current Organisations
Northumbria University
,
Monash University
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Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 27-05-2022
Abstract: Finding communication strategies that effectively motivate social distancing continues to be a global public health priority during the COVID-19 pandemic. This cross-country, preregistered experiment ( n = 25,718 from 89 countries) tested hypotheses concerning generalizable positive and negative outcomes of social distancing messages that promoted personal agency and reflective choices (i.e., an autonomy-supportive message) or were restrictive and shaming (i.e., a controlling message) compared with no message at all. Results partially supported experimental hypotheses in that the controlling message increased controlled motivation (a poorly internalized form of motivation relying on shame, guilt, and fear of social consequences) relative to no message. On the other hand, the autonomy-supportive message lowered feelings of defiance compared with the controlling message, but the controlling message did not differ from receiving no message at all. Unexpectedly, messages did not influence autonomous motivation (a highly internalized form of motivation relying on one’s core values) or behavioral intentions. Results supported hypothesized associations between people’s existing autonomous and controlled motivations and self-reported behavioral intentions to engage in social distancing. Controlled motivation was associated with more defiance and less long-term behavioral intention to engage in social distancing, whereas autonomous motivation was associated with less defiance and more short- and long-term intentions to social distance. Overall, this work highlights the potential harm of using shaming and pressuring language in public health communication, with implications for the current and future global health challenges.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-06-2022
DOI: 10.5194/EMS2022-312
Abstract: & & Mediterranean basin could be occasionally it can be affected by tropical-like cyclonic phenomena. These are called out Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones (TLC) or Medicanes.& & span& Their frequency is about 1.5 per year and they can reach category 1 intensities. Previous studies focusing could beon past TLCs events have found that SST play a fundamental role in modulating the intense air-sea exchange of latent and sensible heat fluxes, hence controlling both development and evolution of TLCs. However, given the connection between ocean mixed layer, ocean heat content and temperature, it is important to explore also the role of the mixed layer depth (MLD).& & /span& & span& In this study we investigated the role of both SST and MLD on genesis, intensification and evolution of a recent record-breaking TLC & #8220 IANOS& #8221 .& IANOS cyclone it originated over the southern Ionian Sea around 14 Sept 2020, moved over the Central Ionian Sea from south-west to North-East, and made landfall around 19 Sept 2020 over Greece mainland coast, reaching atmospheric pressure values of 984 hpa and wind intensity of over 120-130 km/h.& & /span& & span& It developed over a basin where a positive SST anomaly up to 4 & #176 C was detected, which coincided with the sea area where it reached the maximum intensity.& We conducted a series of experiments using an atmospheric model (WRF - Weather Research and Forecasting system) driven by underlying SST (standalone configuration) with daily update or coupled to a simple mixed-layer ocean model (SLAB ocean), with SST calculated at every time step using the SLAB ocean for a given value of the MLD. WRF was implemented with 3 km grid spacing, IFS Analysis (at 9km resolution), while SST or MLD initialization, for standalone or coupled runs, respectively, are provided by the MFS-CMEMs Copernicus dataset at 4 km of horizontal resolution.& For the studied TLC, the mean MLD is modified by increasing or decreasing its depth by 10 m, 30 m, 50 m, 70 m, 100 m. At first& the MLD thickness was characterized& for the days in which the cyclone developed using ocean modeling data. Then we identified possible past and future climatological scenarios of MLD thickness. Starting from these data, we simulated the impact of the MLD, and consequently of the Ocean Heat Content, on the TLC. The preliminary results show that the MLD influences not only the intensity of the cyclone but also the structure of the precipitation field both in terms of magnitude and location. The results deserve further investigation in particular in the content of climate change scenarios.& /span& & &
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-6526
Abstract: An enhanced understanding of Climate Change related implications in the maritime domain is needed in order to improve coastal infrastructure resilience and possible future operations, also in terms of climate security.& Although the Mediterranean Sea is a relatively mild basin, it is however characterized by high geopolitical and economic relevance, occasionally showing intense cyclones with tropical-like characteristics known as Tropical-Like Cyclones (TLC).& Many studies have highlighted that sea surface temperature (SST) distribution and anomalies play a crucial role in modulating the intense air-sea exchange, hence controlling both development and evolution of TLCs. However, given the complex interplay among ocean mixed layer, heat content and temperature, the role of the mixed layer depth (MLD) is of paramount importance.& In this study we investigated the role of both SST anomaly, horizontal gradients and MLD profile on the origin and evolution of a recent record-breaking TLC (named IANOS).& This cyclone originated over the southern Ionian Sea from 14 Sept 2020 to 19 Sept 2020, moving over the Central Ionian Sea from south-west to North-East, and made landfall over Greece mainland coast. It developed over a basin where a positive SST anomaly up to 4 & #176 C was detected, which coincided with the sea area where it reached the maximum intensification and strength.& We conducted a series of experiments using an atmospheric model (WRF - Weather Research and Forecasting system) driven by underlying SST (standalone configuration), either with daily update or coupled to a simple mixed-layer ocean model (SLAB ocean), with SST calculated at every time step using the SLAB ocean for a given value of the MLD. Sensitivity tests were performed increasing or decreasing MLD depth by 10 m, 30 m, 50 m, 75 m, 100 m, removing the horizontal gradients, removing the SST anomaly. Then, possible past and future climatological scenarios of MLD thickness were identified and tested.& Preliminary results show that the MLD influences not only the intensity of the cyclone but also the structure of the precipitation field both in terms of magnitude and location. The fundamental role of the SST anomaly was also found to be essential to provide intense characteristics to IANOS.& Results deserve further investigation in particular in the context of climate change scenarios that can provide useful insights into impact on coastal civil and military infrastructures in the whole Mediterranean region.&
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-06-2012
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 23-01-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL080320
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 12-09-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088231
Abstract: Most climate models project an enhanced mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic, and a zonal SST dipole in the Indian Ocean. The remote influences of these SST change patterns remain uncertain. To examine the extent to which the patterns of SST changes in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans modulate the warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, we compare nudging experiments with prescribed structured and uniform SST changes in the tropics outside the Pacific. We find that the warming patterns in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, respectively, drive a canonical La Niña‐like and elongated equatorial cooling through the Bjerknes feedback, acting to attenuate the warming in the equatorial Pacific substantially. The different SST cooling responses emanate from subtle differences between the initial wind forcing driven by the two basins' SST change patterns. These results have significant implications for future climate change projections.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 24-08-2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-11-2021
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-03-2022
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU22-13007
Abstract: & & The statistical analysis of turbulent air-sea fluxes is not a common study for the Mediterranean Sea but an important one to characterize the probability distribution of air-sea fluxes and relates with the atmospheric variables.& For this study, we intend to compute the turbulent air-sea fluxes for a longer period in the Mediterranean Sea. On the base of computed air-sea fluxes, this study aims to investigates the characteristics of probability density distribution. We analyze the probability distribution of turbulent air-sea fluxes using high-resolution model forecasts from the ECMWF.& We assume that a two parameter Weibull probability density function (PDF) would be a good fit to model the probability distribution of the turbulent fluxes, while three parameters Skew normal distribution is an alternative one to characterize the tail of the distribution with both positive and negative value range.& This statistical study focuses on the probability distribution of air-sea fluxes at the regional sea level which is related with the uncertainty analysis of ocean forecasting. In addition, the usage of higher resolution atmospheric forecast data would give us newer aspect in the probability distribution of air-sea fluxes. It would be an interesting study, how the parameters of the PDFs may vary over the short and longer time span as well as over the Mediterranean Sea domain. Overall, this study on the air-sea heat fluxes and its probability distribution will extend our knowledge on the air-sea energy exchange distribution for interannual and seasonal variability.& &
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-04-2017
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-03-2022
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU22-10456
Abstract: & & Tropical modes of variability, such as El Ni& #241 o& #8211 Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), exert a strong influence on the interannual variability of Australian precipitation. Nevertheless, commonly used indices of ENSO and IOD variability display significant co-variability that prevents a robust quantification of the independent contribution of each mode to precipitation anomalies. This co-variability issue is often addressed by statistically removing ENSO or IOD variability from the precipitation field before calculating teleconnection patterns. However, by performing a suite of coupled and uncoupled modelling experiments in which either ENSO or IOD variability is physically removed, we show that ENSO-only-driven precipitation patterns computed by statistically removing the IOD influence significantly underestimate the impact of ENSO on Australian precipitation variability. Inspired by this, we propose a conceptual model that allows& one& to effectively separate the contribution of each mode to Australian precipitation variability.& &
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-12767
Abstract: With around 46 km2, Nevado Coropuna (NC, 15& #176 & #8217 S, 72& #176 & #8217 W 6377 m) is the largest tropical icecap in the world. NC is situated on a stratovolcano structure with six peaks over 6000 meters, in the arid border of the Andean plateau, Southern Peru. NC is a vital source of freshwater for the communities within the Majes valley and the vast irrigation plans located in the same valley and on the arid coastal strip. Our MOTICE project will model the evolution of NC until 2100 CE in response to climate change.We present initial results on the modelling of NC, which will be used to tune the glaciological parameters for the projections under different RCP scenarios. Mass balance was modelled using the COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and MAss balance model in Python (COSIPY). This was forced with climate data for the 1950-2020 period from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, which provided surface pressure, cloud cover, incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, wind speed, 2-meter air temperature and relative humidity fields. This was combined with the RAIN4PE gridded product outputs for daily precipitation during the 1981-2015 period. The climate dataset was downscaled and validated with observed temperature and relative humidity from a weather station located on the Cavalca glacier (5800 m above sea level), at the northern part of NC. Glacier mass balance results were validated with measured mass balance in the same glacier for the 2014-2019 period. The mass-balance outputs from COSIPY were used for glacial flow modelling, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM).Subglacial topography was modelled using the Volume and Topography Automation (VOLTA) tool in a DEM that had been previously corrected with 70 differential GPR points measured & #8220 in situ& #8221 . The subglacial topography was also tuned and validated against in-situ GPR measurements in four glaciers of NC. Both GPR and GPS measurements were conducted during the 2022 fieldwork c aign, in which large areas of debris-covered ice were also located, mapped and measured. However, debris covered ice has not been considered in this initial model run.Our preliminary results were compared to the actual 1955-2020 glacier surface evolution, which was retrieved from aerial photography and topographic maps for the initial stage in 1955 and from satellite images from 1975 onwards. This work highlighted the difficulty of modelling tropical glaciers, especially accounting for processes important to tropical ice, such as sublimation, and short-lived meteorological events.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-07-2022
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-PLINIUS17-18
Abstract: & & Over the Mediterranean basin we can occasionally observe intense cyclones showing tropical characteristics and known as Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones (TLC). Previous studies focusing on past TLCs events have found that SST anomalies play a fundamental role in modulating the intense air-sea exchange of latent and sensible heat fluxes, hence controlling both development and evolution of TLCs. However, given the connection between ocean mixed layer, ocean heat content and temperature, it is important to explore also the role of the mixed layer depth (MLD). In this study we investigated the role of both SST, SST anomaly and MLD profile on genesis and evolution of a recent record-breaking TLC. Specifically, we focus on TCL & #8220 IANOS& #8221 , a cyclone that originated over the southern Ionian Sea around 14 Sept 2020, moved over the Central Ionian Sea from south-west to North-East, and made landfall around 19 Sept 2020 over Greece mainland coast. It developed over a basin where a positive SST anomaly up to 4 & #176 C was detected, which coincided with the sea area where it reached the maximum intensity.& We conducted a series of experiments using an atmospheric model (WRF - Weather Research and Forecasting system) driven by underlying SST (standalone configuration) with daily update or coupled to a simple mixed-layer ocean model (SLAB ocean), with SST calculated at every time step using the SLAB ocean for a given value of the MLD. WRF was implemented with 3 km grid spacing, forced with ECMWF-IFS analysis (9 km resolution), while SST or MLD initialization, for standalone or coupled runs, respectively, are provided by the MFS-CMEMs Copernicus dataset at 4 km of horizontal resolution.& For the studied TLC, the mean MLD is modified by increasing or decreasing its depth by 10 m, 30 m, 50 m, 75 m, 100 m, change the lapse rate ot MDL and studi the impacto of SST and anomaly present and estimated by climatological projections the preliminary results show that the MLD influences not only the intensity of the cyclone but also the structure of the precipitation field both in terms of magnitude and location. At first& the MLD thickness was characterized& for the days in which the cyclone developed using ocean modeling data. Then we identified possible past and future climatological scenarios of MLD thickness. Starting from these data, we simulated the impact of the MLD, and consequently of the Ocean Heat Content, on the TLC. The preliminary results show that the MLD influences not only the intensity of the cyclone but also the structure of the precipitation field both in terms of magnitude and location. The results deserve further investigation in particular in the context of climate change scenarios.& &
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-11-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-021-01306-2
Abstract: The Southern Ocean exerts a strong influence on global climate, regulating the storage and transport of heat, freshwater and carbon throughout the world’s oceans. While the majority of previous studies focus on how wind changes influence Southern Ocean circulation patterns, here we set out to explore potential feedbacks from the ocean to the atmosphere. To isolate the role of oceanic variability on Southern Hemisphere climate, we perform coupled climate model experiments in which Southern Ocean variability is suppressed by restoring sea surface temperatures (SST) over 40°–65°S to the model’s monthly mean climatology. We find that suppressing Southern Ocean SST variability does not impact the Southern Annular Mode, suggesting air–sea feedbacks do not play an important role in the persistence of the Southern Annular Mode in our model. Suppressing Southern Ocean SST variability does lead to robust mean-state changes in SST and sea ice. Changes in mixed layer processes and convection associated with the SST restoring lead to SST warming and a sea ice decline in southern high latitudes, and SST cooling in midlatitudes. These results highlight the impact non-linear processes can have on a model’s mean state, and the need to consider these when performing simulations of the Southern Ocean.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-16588
Abstract: Using a suite of initial-condition (IC) ensemble forecasting experiments for the Mediterranean Sea, we assess the relative contribution of initial conditions versus atmospheric forcing in 10-day forecasts. Each ensemble member is forced at the surface by ECMWF fields and forecasts the same 10-day period starting from a different initial condition, which is taken from an ocean analysis estimate of the preceding 10-day period. This IC-time-shifted ensemble scheme allows us to explore the forecast dependency from both the IC and the atmospheric forcing (i.e., ECMWF). & Generally, the surface forcing dominates the forecast trajectory at the surface, leading to an inter-member spread that decreases with time. There are also cases in which the initial spread at the surface increases with time, indicating the dominant role of the uncertainty in the IC. While much less common, there are specific times and regions in which the initial condition determines the forecast trajectory during multiple days, indicating that certain oceanic structures are intrinsically more predictable. The identification of these highly-predictable oceanic states might prove extremely valuable in predicting the uncertainty in the forecast.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 23-01-2018
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076548
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2016
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00176.1
Abstract: The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hotspots” of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean–atmosphere–land–biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in vulnerability–impact–adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high-resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional Earth system models in several key regions worldwide.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-2022
DOI: 10.1007/S11629-022-7388-4
Abstract: Weather and climate conditions drive the evolution of tropical glaciers which play an important role as water reservoirs for Peruvian inhabitants in the arid coast and semi-arid Andean region. The scarcity of long-term high-quality observations over Peruvian glaciers has motivated the extensive use of reanalysis data to describe the climatic evolution of these glaciers. However, the representativeness and uncertainties of these reanalysis products over these glaciers are still poorly constrained. This study evaluates the ability of the ERA5-Land reanalysis (ERA5L) to reproduce hourly and monthly 2 m air temperature and relative humidity (T2m and Rh2m, respectively) over several Peruvian glaciers. We compared the ERA5L with data from four on-glacier automatic weather stations (AWS), whose hourly time series were completed with nearby stations, for the period January 2017 to December 2019. Results indicates a better performance of the reanalysis for T2m ( r .80) than for Rh2m (∼0.4 r ∼0.6) in all four glaciers. Concerning the observations, both parameters show a daily cycle influenced by the presence of the glacier. This influence is more prominent during the dry months when the so-called glacier d ing and cooling effects are stronger. On a monthly time scale, the ERA5L validation for both parameters are better in wet outer tropical sites (RMSE between ±0.2°C for T2m and between 3%–7% for Rh2m) rather than in dry outer tropical sites (RMSE between ±0.2°C for T2m and between 3%–7% for Rh2m). Among all sites considered in the study, the Rh2m bias is the highest in the Cavalca glacier (correlation of 0.81 RMSE 13%, MAE 11% and bias 8.3%) and the lowest in Artesonraju glacier (correlation of 0.96 RMSE 3% MAE 2.3% and bias — 0.8%). Based on certain considerations outlined in this paper, it is appropriate to use ERA5L to characterize T2m and Rh2m conditions on Peruvian glaciers, particularly in the wet outer tropics.
Publisher: Annual Reviews
Date: 16-01-2023
DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-MARINE-040422-084555
Abstract: The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific–central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical–extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific.
Publisher: Inter-Research Science Center
Date: 09-12-2013
DOI: 10.3354/CR01186
Publisher: Inter-Research Science Center
Date: 08-10-2013
DOI: 10.3354/CR01165
Publisher: Past Global Changes (PAGES)
Date: 07-2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-03-2018
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-04-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083906
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2012
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 31-07-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-020-17683-7
Abstract: Despite the observed monotonic increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations, global mean temperature displays important decadal fluctuations typically attributed to both external forcing and internal variability. Here, we provide a robust quantification of the relative contributions of anthropogenic, natural, and internally-driven decadal variability of global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) by using a unique dataset consisting of 30-member large initial-condition ensembles with five Earth System Models (ESM-LE). We present evidence that a large fraction (~29–53%) of the simulated decadal-scale variance in in idual timeseries of GMSST over 1950–2010 is externally forced and largely linked to the representation of volcanic aerosols. Comparison with the future (2010–2070) period suggests that external forcing provides a source of additional decadal-scale variability in the historical period. Given the unpredictable nature of future volcanic aerosol forcing, it is suggested that a large portion of decadal GMSST variability might not be predictable.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 23-04-2020
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.6593
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-11-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066281
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 19-08-2015
DOI: 10.1002/WE.1893
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-03-2022
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU22-11515
Abstract: & & Over the Mediterranean basin we can occasionally observe intense cyclones showing tropical characteristics and known as Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones (TLC) or Medicanes (short for & #8220 Mediterranean Hurricanes& #8221 ). Previous studies focusing on past TLCs events have found that SST anomalies play a fundamental role in modulating the intense air-sea exchange of latent and sensible heat fluxes, hence controlling both development and evolution of TLCs. However, given the connection between ocean mixed layer, ocean heat content and temperature, it is important to explore also the role of the mixed layer depth (MLD). In this study we investigated the role of both SST and MLD on genesis and evolution of a recent record-breaking TLC. Specifically, we focus on TCL & #8220 IANOS& #8221 , a cyclone that originated over the southern Ionian Sea around 14 Sept 2020, moved over the Central Ionian Sea from south-west to North-East, and made landfall around 19 Sept 2020 over Greece mainland coast. It developed over a basin where a positive SST anomaly up to 4 & #176 C was detected, which coincided with the sea area where it reached the maximum intensity.& We conducted a series of experiments using an atmospheric model (WRF - Weather Research and Forecasting system) driven by underlying SST (standalone configuration) with daily update or coupled to a simple mixed-layer ocean model (SLAB ocean), with SST calculated at every time step using the SLAB ocean for a given value of the MLD. WRF was implemented with 3 km grid spacing, forced with GFS-GDAL analysis (0.25& #176 x0.25& #176 horizontal resolution), while SST or MLD initialization, for standalone or coupled runs, respectively, are provided by the MFS-CMEMs Copernicus dataset at 4 km of horizontal resolution.& For the studied TLC, the mean MLD is modified by increasing or decreasing its depth by 10 m, 30 m, 50 m the preliminary results show that the MLD influences not only the intensity of the cyclone but also the structure of the precipitation field both in terms of magnitude and location. At first& the MLD thickness was characterized& for the days in which the cyclone developed using ocean modeling data. Then we identified possible past and future climatological scenarios of MLD thickness. Starting from these data, we simulated the impact of the MLD, and consequently of the Ocean Heat Content, on the TLC. The preliminary results show that the MLD influences not only the intensity of the cyclone but also the structure of the precipitation field both in terms of magnitude and location. The results deserve further investigation in particular in the context of climate change scenarios.& &
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-01-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL094295
Abstract: Tropical modes of variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), exert a strong influence on the interannual variability of Australian precipitation. Nevertheless, commonly used indices of ENSO and IOD variability display significant co‐variability that prevents a robust quantification of the independent contribution of each mode to precipitation anomalies. This co‐variability issue is often addressed by statistically removing ENSO or IOD variability from the precipitation field before calculating teleconnection patterns. However, by performing a suite of coupled and uncoupled modeling experiments in which either ENSO or IOD variability is physically removed, we show that ENSO‐only‐driven precipitation patterns computed by statistically removing the IOD influence significantly underestimate the impact of ENSO on Australian precipitation variability. Inspired by this, we propose a conceptual model that allows one to effectively separate the contribution of each mode to Australian precipitation variability.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Giovanni Liguori.