ORCID Profile
0000-0001-6289-0270
Current Organisations
Australian National University
,
Farvet (Peru)
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Publisher: Wiley
Date: 30-03-2018
DOI: 10.1111/JPET.12294
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-07-2021
DOI: 10.1111/TWEC.13166
Abstract: The world has been experiencing dramatic demographic change since the 1950s, with almost all countries facing ageing challenges this coming century. However, the timing and speed of this demographic transition are significantly asymmetric across countries. This paper examines the impacts of global demographic change on macroeconomic conditions, international trade and capital flows in major economies in a global multi‐region and multi‐sector general equilibrium model. We separately simulate demographic shocks in six regions of the world economy to understand how each shock in idually affects the world economy and then combine these shocks to obtain the consequences of global demographic change. The paper finds that future demographic change will significantly impact each region's GDP, changing the landscape of the world economy. However, the spillover effects on GDP across the countries are relatively small. In young economies such as emerging Asia and Africa, while economic growth will significantly benefit from demographic idends, demographic change does not improve per capita GDP. In ageing economies such as Japan and Europe, population ageing will decrease the real interest rate. However, this impact will be offset by rising interest rates in young economies. Due to the differential real interest rates, capital will flow from more ageing to less ageing economies. These capital flows can be substantial and beneficial for all economies.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 11-01-2019
DOI: 10.1111/JPET.12356
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-2020
DOI: 10.1111/JPET.12300
Publisher: World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt
Date: 02-2018
DOI: 10.1142/S2010007818400110
Abstract: This paper examines carbon tax design options in the United States using an intertemporal computable general equilibrium model of the world economy called G-Cubed. In this paper, we discuss four policy scenarios that explore two overarching issues: (1) the effects of a carbon tax under alternative assumptions about the use of the resulting revenue, and (2) the effects of a system of import charges on carbon-intensive goods (“border carbon adjustments” or BCAs). Consistent with earlier studies, we find that the carbon tax raises considerable revenue and reduces CO 2 emissions significantly relative to baseline, no matter how the revenue is used. Gross annual revenue from the carbon tax with lump sum rebating and no BCA begins at $110 billion in 2020 and rises gradually to $170 billion in 2040. By 2040, annual CO 2 emissions fall from 5.5 billion metric tons (BMT) under the baseline to 2.4 BMT, a decline of 3.1 BMT, or 57%. Cumulative emissions over 2020 to 2040 fall by 48 BMT. Also consistent with earlier studies, we find that the carbon tax has very small overall impacts on gross domestic product (GDP), wages, employment, and consumption. Different uses of the revenue from the carbon tax result in slightly different levels and compositions of GDP across consumption, investment and net exports. Overall, using carbon tax revenue to reduce the capital income tax rate results in better macroeconomic outcomes than using the revenue for lump sum transfers. Counter to their purported purpose of protecting U.S. trade strength, for a given revenue policy, BCAs tend to produce lower net exports than the carbon taxes alone. This is generally because the BCAs raise the value of the dollar relative to other currencies, thus lowering exports more than they lower imports. This is consistent with standard results in the international trade literature on the effects of import tariffs and export subsidies on real exchange rates, a result that is often overlooked in the discussion of domestic carbon policy. In a finding new to the literature, our results show that BCAs can have strikingly different effects depending on the use of the revenue. Under a lump sum rebate, BCAs exacerbate the impact of the carbon tax by lowering domestic output further than it would fall under the carbon tax alone. Under a capital tax swap, however, BCAs have a moderating effect: they reduce the impact of the tax on most industries.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 09-2018
DOI: 10.1111/ASEJ.12160
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 03-2014
Abstract: In the present study, the ability of a recently proposed multiplex polymerase chain reaction (mPCR) to determine the serogroups (A, B, and C) of Avibacterium paragallinarum was evaluated. A total of 12 reference strains and 69 field isolates of Av. paragallinarum from Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, and Peru were included in the study. With some exceptions (which were serotyped in the current study), all of the isolates and strains had been previously examined by 2 serotyping schemes (Page and Kume) or were the formal reference strains for the schemes. Three of 6 (50%) reference strains of serogroup A, 2 (100%) of serogroup B, and 1 of 4 (25%) reference strains of serogroup C were correctly serotyped by the mPCR. With the field isolates, the mPCR correctly recognized 16 of the 17 serogroup A isolates, 10 of the 12 serogroup B isolates, and 18 of the 37 serogroup C isolates. Overall, the specificity and sensitivity of the PCR test was as follows: 82.6% and 87.3% (serogroup A), 85.7% and 71.9% (serogroup B), and 46.3% and 100% (serogroup C). The poor performance of the mPCR in terms of recognition of serogroup C isolates (low sensitivity of 46.3%) and the relatively high level of uncertainty about the accuracy of the serogroup A and B results (specificity of 87.3% and 71.9%, respectively) means that the assay cannot be recommended as a replacement for conventional serotyping.
No related grants have been discovered for Manolo Clemente Fernández Díaz.