ORCID Profile
0000-0002-4145-1786
Current Organisation
AstraZeneca (Sweden)
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Publisher: Medical Journals Sweden AB
Date: 23-05-2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-2010
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2017
DOI: 10.1016/J.JOCA.2017.07.022
Abstract: The purpose of our study was to estimate the future incidence rate (IR) and volume of primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in the United States from 2015 to 2050 using a conservative projection model that assumes a maximum IR of procedures. Furthermore, our study compared these projections to a model assuming exponential growth, as done in previous studies, for illustrative purposes. A population based epidemiological study was conducted using data from US National Inpatient S le (NIS) and Census Bureau. Primary TKA procedures performed between 1993 and 2012 were identified. The IR, 95% confidence intervals (CI), or prediction intervals (PI) of TKA per 100,000 US citizens over the age of 40 years were calculated. The estimated IR was used as the outcome of a regression modelling with a logistic regression (i.e., conservative model) and Poisson regression equation (i.e., exponential growth model). Logistic regression modelling suggests the IR of TKA is expected to increase 69% by 2050 compared to 2012, from 429 (95%CI 374-453) procedures/100,000 in 2012 to 725 (95%PI 121-1041) in 2050. This translates into a 143% projected increase in TKA volume. Using the Poisson model, the IR in 2050 was projected to increase 565%, to 2854 (95%CI 2278-4004) procedures/100,000 IR, which is an 855% projected increase in volume compared to 2012. Even after using a conservative projection approach, the number of TKAs in the US, which already has the highest IR of knee arthroplasty in the world, is expected to increase 143% by 2050.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-09-2017
DOI: 10.1002/ACR.23197
Abstract: To compare the lifetime risk of total hip replacement (THR) surgery for osteoarthritis (OA) between countries, and over time. Data on primary THR procedures performed for OA in 2003 and 2013 were extracted from national arthroplasty registries in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Life tables and population data were also obtained for each country. Lifetime risk of THR was calculated for 2003 and 2013 using registry, life table, and population data. In 2003, lifetime risk of THR ranged from 8.7% (Denmark) to 15.9% (Norway) for females, and from 6.3% (Denmark) to 8.6% (Finland) for males. With the exception of females in Norway (where lifetime risk started and remained high), lifetime risk of THR increased significantly for both sexes in all countries from 2003 to 2013. In 2013, lifetime risk of THR was as high as 1 in 7 women in Norway, and 1 in 10 men in Finland. Females consistently demonstrated the highest lifetime risk of THR at both time points. Notably, lifetime risk for females in Norway was approximately double the risk for males in 2003 (females 15.9% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 15.6-16.1], males 6.9% [95% CI 6.7-7.1]), and 2013 (females 16.0% [95% CI 15.8-16.3], males 8.3% [95% CI 8.1-8.5]). Using representative, population-based data, this study found statistically significant increases in the lifetime risk of THR in 5 countries over a 10-year period, and substantial between-sex differences. These multinational risk estimates can inform resource planning for OA service delivery.
Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Date: 08-2017
No related grants have been discovered for Szilard Nemes.