ORCID Profile
0000-0001-6802-2239
Current Organisations
The University of Newcastle
,
Federation University
,
University of Newcastle Australia
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Publications
Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Tropical Cyclones Affecting Tonga in the Southwest Pacific
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 24-07-2023
Abstract: The modulating influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropical cyclones (TCs) has been examined globally, regionally, and subregionally, but its impact on the island scale remains unclear. This study investigates how TC activity affecting the Tonga region is being modulated by the MJO, using the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) and the MJO index. In particular, this study investigates how the MJO modulates the frequency and intensity of TCs affecting the Tonga region relative to the entire study period (1970–2019 hereafter referred to as all years), as well as to different phases of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Results suggest that the MJO strongly modulates TC activity affecting the Tonga region. The frequency and intensity of TCs is enhanced during the active phases (phases six to eight) in all years, including El Niño and ENSO-neutral years. The MJO also strongly influences the climatological pattern of genesis of TCs affecting the Tonga region, where more (fewer) cyclones form in the active (inactive) phases of the MJO and more genesis points are clustered (scattered) near (away from) the Tonga region. There were three regression curves that best described the movement of TCs in the region matching the dominant steering mechanisms in the Southwest Pacific region. The findings of this study can provide climatological information for the Tonga Meteorological Service (TMS) and disaster managers to better understand the TC risk associated with the impact of the MJO on TCs affecting the Tonga region and support its TC early warning system.
Variability of southwest Pacific tropical cyclone track geometry over the last 70 years
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-05-2020
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.6636
Rebar corrosion due to chlorides in synergy with sodium, potassium, and magnesium
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2018
The influence of large-scale climate modes on tropical cyclone tracks in the southwest Pacific
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 17-07-2023
DOI: 10.1007/S11069-023-06091-X
Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) impact the economy, properties, lives and infrastructure of island nations and territories of the southwest Pacific (SWP), accounting for three in four regional disasters each year. To increase the resilience of the SWP to the destructive impacts of TCs, improved TC track forecasts are needed since a high degree of uncertainty exists around the likely path a TC will take in this region post-formation. This requires better comprehension of the factors contributing to TC track variability occurring at different timescales. Therefore, we examine the modulating impact of key Indo-Pacific climate drivers: the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), on SWP TC track variability. We present new insights into the spatial ( i.e . prevailing trajectories) and temporal (i.e. track length, average speed and duration) components of TC tracks, being modulated by both in idual and combined climate modes. Overall, TC tracks tend to shift northeast during El Niño, IPO positive, IOD east positive and/or SAM negative phases (with a southwest shift observed during the opposite climate phases). Further, we show that when two of these climate modes are in their positive phase ( e.g. El Niño with the positive phases of IPO or eastern pole of IOD and SAM), TC track length and average speed are enhanced. However, for cases where either one (e.g. El Niño/negative phase of IPO and IOD east) or two (La Niña/negative phase of IPO, IOD east and SAM) climate modes were in the negative phase, an increase in TC track duration was observed. The findings of this study may be used to improve TC forecasting and better quantify TC-related risks.
A decision tree approach to identify predictors of extreme rainfall events – A case study for the Fiji Islands
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2021
Characterizing Australia's east coast cyclones (1950–2019)
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-03-2023
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.8032
Abstract: East coast cyclones (ECCs) provide an essential reprieve from dry periods across eastern Australia. They also deliver flood‐producing rains with significant economic, social and environmental impacts. Assessing and comparing the influence of different types of cyclones is hindered by an incomplete understanding of ECC typology, given their widely variable spatial and temporal characteristics. This study employs a track‐clustering method (probabilistic, curve‐aligned regression model) to identify key cyclonic pathways for ECCs from 1950 to 2019. Six spatially independent clusters were successfully distinguished and further sub‐classified (coastal, continental and tropical) based on their genesis location. The seasonality and long‐term variability, intensity (maximum Laplacian value ± 2 days) and event‐based rainfall were then evaluated for each cluster to quantify the impact of these lows on Australia. The highest quantity of land‐based rainfall per event is associated with the tropical cluster (Cluster 6), whereas widespread rainfall was also found to occur in the two continental clusters (clusters 4 and 5). Cyclone tracks orientated close to the coast (clusters 1, 2 and 3) were determined to be the least impactful in terms of rainfall and intensity, despite being the most common cyclone type. In terms of interannual variability, sea surface temperature anomalies suggest an increased cyclone frequency for clusters 1 (austral winter) and 4 (austral spring) during a central Pacific El Niño. Furthermore, cyclone incidence during IOD‐negative conditions was more pronounced in winter for clusters 1, 2, 3— and clusters 4 and 5 in spring. All cyclones also predominantly occurred in SAM‐positive conditions. However, winter ECCs for clusters 1 and 3 had a higher frequency in SAM‐negative. This new typology of ECCs via spatial clustering provides crucial insights into the systems that produce extreme rainfall across eastern Australia and should be used to inform future hazard management of cyclone events.
Optimized tongue driven system using artificial intelligence
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 22-07-2022
Decadal variability of tropical cyclogenesis and decay in the southwest Pacific
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 02-12-2019
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.6368
Related Organisations
Ministry Of Education National Heritage Culture And Arts
Location: Fiji
Related Funding Activities
No related grants have been discovered for Krishneel Sharma.