ORCID Profile
0000-0001-8043-5431
Current Organisations
University of New South Wales
,
GNS Science
,
GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel
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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-06-2017
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-06-2017
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-03-2020
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU2020-1892
Abstract: & & Forty percent of the plastic produced annually ends up in the ocean. What happens to the plastic after that is poorly understood, though a growing body of data suggests it is rapidly spreading throughout the ocean. The mechanisms of this spread are not straightforward for small, weakly or neutrally buoyant plastic size fractions (the microplastics), in part because they aggregate in marine snow and are consumed by zooplankton. This biological transport pathway is suspected to be a primary surface microplastic removal mechanism, but exactly how it might work in the real ocean is unknown. We search the parameter space of a new microplastic model embedded in an earth system model to show biological uptake significantly shapes global microplastic inventory and distributions, despite its being an apparently inefficient removal pathway.& &
Publisher: Authorea, Inc.
Date: 18-09-2023
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020PA004075
Abstract: Phytoplankton exert a significant control on the marine carbon cycle and can thus impact atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Here we use a new ecosystem model to analyze the response of diatoms and coccolithophores in the Southern Ocean to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate conditions, and changes in aeolian iron (Fe) input in the Southern Ocean. We find that LGM climate conditions without changes in Fe input lead to a large increase in diatoms north of the winter sea ice edge in the South Atlantic (19%) and the South Pacific (26%), and a 31% and 9% increase within the seasonal sea‐ice zone in the South Atlantic and Indian oceans, respectively, while diatoms decrease in the Ross and Weddell Seas, and in the South Pacific (62%) south of the winter sea ice edge. Coccolithophores increase by 11% in the South West Atlantic near 45°S but are outcompeted by diatoms within the seasonal sea‐ice zone, where they decrease by 21%. Overall, this results in a 11% decrease in Southern Ocean net primary productivity (NPP) and a 2.4% decrease in export production (EP). A series of sensitivity experiments with different aeolian Fe input are compared to available paleo‐proxy records. The best fit is obtained for a simulation forced with dust fluxes from Lambert et al. (2015), 0.1002/2015gl064250 and reduced Antarctic Bottom Water formation in the Weddell Sea. The 78% increase in aeolian Fe input in the Southern Ocean in this simulation increases the Southern Ocean EP by 4.4%, while NPP remains 8.7% weaker compared to preindustrial.
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 11-01-2021
DOI: 10.3389/FMARS.2020.583989
Abstract: The impact of calcifying phytoplankton on atmospheric CO 2 concentration is determined by a number of factors, including their degree of ecological success as well as the buffering capacity of the ocean/marine sediment system. The relative importance of these factors has changed over Earth's history and this has implications for atmospheric CO 2 and climate regulation. We explore some of these implications with four “Strangelove” experiments: two in which soft-tissue production and calcification is stopped, and two in which only calcite production is forced to stop, in idealized icehouse and greenhouse climates. We find that in the icehouse climate the loss of calcifiers compensates the atmospheric CO 2 impact of the loss of all phytoplankton by roughly one-sixth. But in the greenhouse climate the loss of calcifiers compensates the loss of all phytoplankton by about half. This increased impact on atmospheric CO 2 concentration is due to the combination of higher rates of pelagic calcification due to warmer temperatures and weaker buffering due to widespread acidification in the greenhouse ocean. However, the greenhouse atmospheric temperature response per unit of CO 2 change to removing ocean soft-tissue production and calcification is only one-fourth that in an icehouse climate, owing to the logarithmic radiative forcing dependency on atmospheric CO 2 thereby reducing the climate feedback of mass extinction. This decoupling of carbon cycle and temperature sensitivities offers a mechanism to explain the dichotomy of both enhanced climate stability and destabilization of the carbonate compensation depth in greenhouse climates.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-02-2017
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-2017-29
Abstract: Abstract. Conventional integration of earth system and ocean models can accrue considerable computational expenses, particularly for marine biogeochemical applications. Offline numerical schemes in which only the biogeochemical tracers are time-stepped and transported using a pre-computed circulation field can substantially reduce the burden and are thus an attractive alternative. One such scheme is the transport matrix method (TMM), which represents tracer transport as a sequence of sparse matrix-vector products that can be performed efficiently on distributed-memory computers. While the TMM has been used for a variety of geochemical and biogeochemical studies, to date the resulting solutions have not been comprehensively assessed against their online counterparts. Here, we present a detailed comparison of the two. It is based on simulations of the state-of-the-art biogeochemical sub-model embedded within the widely-used University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). Transport matrices were extracted for an equilibrium run of the physical model and subsequently used to integrate the biogeochemical model offline to equilibrium. The identical biogeochemical model was also run online. Our simulations show that offline integration introduces some bias to biogeochemical quantities through the omission of the polar filtering used in UVic ESCM, and in the offline application of time-dependent forcing fields, with high latitudes showing the largest differences with respect to the online model. Differences in other regions and in the seasonality of nutrients and phytoplankton distributions are found to be relatively minor, giving confidence that the TMM is a reliable tool for offline integration of complex biogeochemical models. Moreover, while UVic ESCM is a serial code, the TMM can be run on a parallel machine with no change to the underlying biogeochemical code, thus providing orders of magnitude speed-up over the online model.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 27-05-2015
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-04-2017
DOI: 10.5194/BG-2017-118
Abstract: Abstract. Treatment of the underwater light field in ocean biogeochemical models has been attracting increasing interest, with some models moving towards more complex parameterisations. A simple test of the sensitivity of a typical, highly simplified parameterisation, to adjustment of the phytoplankton light attenuation parameter using both steady-state and future projections reveals a range of values to which the model primary production is relatively insensitive in steady-state but to which it becomes increasingly sensitive under climate forcing. Parameter value choice can determine the magnitude and sign of global net primary production trends in a high CO2 forcing scenario. Ocean oxygen is particularly sensitive to parameter choice. With climate forcing, two simulations establish a strong biogeochemical feedback between the Southern Ocean and low latitude Pacific that highlights the potential for regional teleconnection and serves as a reminder that shifts in fundamental properties (e.g., light attenuation by phytoplankton) over deep time have the potential to alter biogeochemical climate.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 03-05-2017
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 18-06-2020
Abstract: Abstract. Global biogeochemical ocean models are often tuned to match the observed distributions and fluxes of inorganic and organic quantities. This tuning is typically carried out “by hand”. However, this rather subjective approach might not yield the best fit to observations, is closely linked to the circulation employed and is thus influenced by its specific features and even its faults. We here investigate the effect of model tuning, via objective optimisation, of one biogeochemical model of intermediate complexity when simulated in five different offline circulations. For each circulation, three of six model parameters have been adjusted to characteristic features of the respective circulation. The values of these three parameters – namely, the oxygen utilisation of remineralisation, the particle flux parameter and potential nitrogen fixation rate – correlate significantly with deep mixing and ideal age of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and the outcrop area of Antarctic Intermediate Waters (AAIW) and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) in the Southern Ocean. The clear relationship between these parameters and circulation characteristics, which can be easily diagnosed from global models, can provide guidance when tuning global biogeochemistry within any new circulation model. The results from 20 global cross-validation experiments show that parameter sets optimised for a specific circulation can be transferred between similar circulations without losing too much of the model's fit to observed quantities. When compared to model intercomparisons of subjectively tuned, global coupled biogeochemistry–circulation models, each with different circulation and/or biogeochemistry, our results show a much lower range of oxygen inventory, oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) volume and global biogeochemical fluxes. Export production depends to a large extent on the circulation applied, while deep particle flux is mostly determined by the particle flux parameter. Oxygen inventory, OMZ volume, primary production and fixed-nitrogen turnover depend more or less equally on both factors, with OMZ volume showing the highest sensitivity, and residual variability. These results show a beneficial effect of optimisation, even when a biogeochemical model is first optimised in a relatively coarse circulation and then transferred to a different finer-resolution circulation model.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 12-02-2020
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 07-2015
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 03-05-2017
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 03-05-2017
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 14-03-2019
Abstract: Abstract. Phytoplankton calcifiers contribute to global carbon cycling through their dual formation of calcium carbonate and particulate organic carbon (POC). The carbonate might provide an efficient export pathway for the associated POC to the deep ocean, reducing the particles' exposure to biological degradation in the upper ocean and increasing the particle settling rate. Previous work has suggested ballasting of POC by carbonate might increase in a warming climate, in spite of increasing carbonate dissolution rates, because calcifiers benefit from the widespread nutrient limitation arising from stratification. We compare the biogeochemical responses of three models containing (1) a single mixed phytoplankton class, (2) additional explicit small phytoplankton and calcifiers, and (3) additional explicit small phytoplankton and calcifiers with a prognostic carbonate ballast model, to two rapid changes in atmospheric CO2. The first CO2 scenario represents a rapid (151-year) transition from a stable icehouse climate (283.9 ppm) into a greenhouse climate (1263 ppm) the second represents a symmetric rapid transition from a stable greenhouse climate into an icehouse climate. We identify a slope change in the global net primary production response with a transition point at about 3.5 ∘C global mean sea surface temperature change in all models, driven by a combination of physical and biological changes. We also find that in both warming and cooling scenarios, the application of a prognostic carbonate ballast model moderates changes in carbon export production, suboxic volume, and nitrate sources and sinks, reducing the long-term model response to about one-third that of the calcifier model without ballast. Explicit small phytoplankton and calcifiers, and carbonate ballasting, increase the physical separation of nitrate sources and sinks through a combination of phytoplankton competition and lengthened remineralization profile, resulting in a significantly higher global nitrate inventory in this model compared to the single phytoplankton type model (15 % and 32 % higher for icehouse and greenhouse climates). Higher nitrate inventory alleviates nitrate limitation, increasing phytoplankton sensitivity to changes in physical limitation factors (light and temperature). This larger sensitivity to physical forcing produces stronger shifts in ocean phosphate storage between icehouse and greenhouse climates. The greenhouse climate is found to hold phosphate and nitrate deeper in the ocean, despite a shorter remineralization length scale than the icehouse climate, because of the longer residence times of the deep water masses. We conclude the global biogeochemical impact of calcifiers extends beyond their role in global carbon cycling, and that the ecological composition of the global ocean can affect how ocean biogeochemistry responds to climate forcing.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-12-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41561-022-01096-W
Abstract: Climate change and plastics pollution are dual threats to marine environments. Here we use biogeochemical and microplastic modelling to show that even if there is complete removal of microplastics and cessation of deposition in the oceans in 2022, regional recovery from microplastic-induced remineralization and water column deoxygenation could take hundreds of years for coastal upwelling zones, the North Pacific and Southern Ocean. Surface stratification and reduced sea ice cover further impede regional recovery, highlighting the importance of aggressive mitigation of plastic pollution.
Publisher: Portland Press Ltd.
Date: 11-10-2022
DOI: 10.1042/ETLS20220013
Abstract: Plastic pollution can both chemically and physically impede marine biota. But it can also provide novel substrates for colonization, and its leachate might stimulate phytoplankton growth. Plastic contains carbon, which is released into the environment upon breakdown. All of these mechanisms have been proposed to contribute global impacts on open ocean carbon cycling and climate from ubiquitous plastic pollution. Laboratory studies produce compelling data showing both stimulation and inhibition of primary producers and disruption of predatory lifecycles at in idual scale, but global carbon cycle impacts remain mostly unquantified. Preliminary modelling estimates ecosystem alterations and direct carbon release due to plastic pollution will remain vastly less disruptive to global carbon cycling than the direct damage wrought by fossil fuel carbon emissions. But when considered by mass, carbon in the form of bulky, persistent plastic particles may be disproportionally more influential on biogeochemical cycling than carbon as a gas in the atmosphere or as a dissolved component of seawater. Thus, future research should pay particular attention to the optical and other physical effects of marine plastic pollution on Earth system and ecological function, and resulting impacts on oxygen and nutrient cycling. Improved understanding of the breakdown of plastics in the marine environment should also be considered high-priority, as any potential perturbation of biological carbon cycling by plastic pollution is climate-relevant on centennial timescales and longer.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-2006
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-10-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-020-72898-4
Abstract: Every year, about four percent of the plastic waste generated worldwide ends up in the ocean. What happens to the plastic there is poorly understood, though a growing body of evidence suggests it is rapidly spreading throughout the global ocean. The mechanisms of this spread are straightforward for buoyant larger plastics that can be accurately modelled using Lagrangian particle models. But the fate of the smallest size fractions (the microplastics) are less straightforward, in part because they can aggregate in sinking marine snow and faecal pellets. This biologically-mediated pathway is suspected to be a primary surface microplastic removal mechanism, but exactly how it might work in the real ocean is unknown. We search the parameter space of a new microplastic model embedded in an earth system model to show that biological uptake can significantly shape global microplastic inventory and distributions and even account for the budgetary “missing” fraction of surface microplastic, despite being an inefficient removal mechanism. While a lack of observational data h ers our ability to choose a set of “best” model parameters, our effort represents a first tool for quantitatively assessing hypotheses for microplastic interaction with ocean biology at the global scale.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 30-11-2021
Abstract: Abstract. We describe and test a new model of biological marine silicate cycling, implemented in the Kiel Marine Biogeochemical Model version 3 (KMBM3), embedded in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) version 2.9. This new model adds diatoms, which are a key component of the biological carbon pump, to an existing ecosystem model. This new model combines previously published parameterizations of a diatom functional type, opal production and export with a novel, temperature-dependent dissolution scheme. Modelled steady-state biogeochemical rates, carbon and nutrient distributions are similar to those found in previous model versions. The new model performs well against independent ocean biogeochemical indicators and captures the large-scale features of the marine silica cycle to a degree comparable to similar Earth system models. Furthermore, it is computationally efficient, allowing both fully coupled, long-timescale transient simulations and “offline” transport matrix spinups. We assess the fully coupled model against modern ocean observations, the historical record starting from 1960 and a business-as-usual atmospheric CO2 forcing to the year 2300. The model simulates a global decline in net primary production (NPP) of 1.4 % having occurred since the 1960s, with the strongest declines in the tropics, northern midlatitudes and Southern Ocean. The simulated global decline in NPP reverses after the year 2100 (forced by the extended RCP8.5 CO2 concentration scenario), and NPP returns to 98 % of the pre-industrial rate by 2300. This recovery is dominated by increasing primary production in the Southern Ocean, mostly by calcifying phytoplankton. Large increases in calcifying phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean offset a decline in the low latitudes, producing a global net calcite export in 2300 that varies only slightly from pre-industrial rates. Diatom distribution moves southward in our simulations, following the receding Antarctic ice front, but diatoms are outcompeted by calcifiers across most of their pre-industrial Southern Ocean habitat. Global opal export production thus drops to 75 % of its pre-industrial value by 2300. Model nutrients such as phosphate, silicate and nitrate build up along the Southern Ocean particle export pathway, but dissolved iron (for which ocean sources are held constant) increases in the upper ocean. This different behaviour of iron is attributed to a reduction of low-latitude NPP (and consequently, a reduction in both uptake and export and particle, including calcite scavenging), an increase in seawater temperatures (raising the solubility of particulate iron) and stratification that “traps” the iron near the surface. These results are meant to serve as a baseline for sensitivity assessments to be undertaken with this model in the future.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-03-2020
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU2020-1370
Abstract: & & Marine plankton play a key role in climatic transitions through their ability to transfer atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO& sub& & /sub& ) to the deep ocean via the biological pump. It has been suggested that the lower atmospheric CO& sub& & /sub& concentrations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) might have resulted from enhanced export production triggered by higher micronutrient (Fe, Si) availability from continental dust, particularly in the Southern Ocean. Such a scenario is consistent with higher sediment accumulation rates observed during the LGM.& & & & In this study we use a new competition-driven ecosystem model that includes four major plankton types (diazotrophs, coccolithophores, diatoms and other general phytoplankton) to investigate their response to LGM climatic boundary conditions and to reconstructed micronutrient (Fe, Si) availability. We apply different dust fluxes, based on two plausible reconstructions (Mahowald et al., 2006 and Ohgaito et al., 2018). We compare LGM simulations with preindustrial simulations and disentangle the simulated ecosystem response due to climate forcing from the response due to micronutrient availability. We find that the ecosystem responses are complex and spatially heterogenic.& &
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 29-06-2017
Abstract: Abstract. Conventional integration of Earth system and ocean models can accrue considerable computational expenses, particularly for marine biogeochemical applications. Offline numerical schemes in which only the biogeochemical tracers are time stepped and transported using a pre-computed circulation field can substantially reduce the burden and are thus an attractive alternative. One such scheme is the transport matrix method (TMM), which represents tracer transport as a sequence of sparse matrix–vector products that can be performed efficiently on distributed-memory computers. While the TMM has been used for a variety of geochemical and biogeochemical studies, to date the resulting solutions have not been comprehensively assessed against their online counterparts. Here, we present a detailed comparison of the two. It is based on simulations of the state-of-the-art biogeochemical sub-model embedded within the widely used coarse-resolution University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). The default, non-linear advection scheme was first replaced with a linear, third-order upwind-biased advection scheme to satisfy the linearity requirement of the TMM. Transport matrices were extracted from an equilibrium run of the physical model and subsequently used to integrate the biogeochemical model offline to equilibrium. The identical biogeochemical model was also run online. Our simulations show that offline integration introduces some bias to biogeochemical quantities through the omission of the polar filtering used in UVic ESCM and in the offline application of time-dependent forcing fields, with high latitudes showing the largest differences with respect to the online model. Differences in other regions and in the seasonality of nutrients and phytoplankton distributions are found to be relatively minor, giving confidence that the TMM is a reliable tool for offline integration of complex biogeochemical models. Moreover, while UVic ESCM is a serial code, the TMM can be run on a parallel machine with no change to the underlying biogeochemical code, thus providing orders of magnitude speed-up over the online model.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 09-09-2020
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-2020-235
Abstract: Abstract. We describe and test a new model of biological marine silicate cycling, implemented in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) version 2.9. This new model adds diatoms, which are a key aspect of the biological carbon pump, to an existing ecosystem model. The new model performs well against important ocean biogeochemical indicators and captures the large-scale features of the marine silica cycle. Furthermore it is computationally efficient, allowing both fully-coupled, long-timescale transient simulations, as well as "offline" transport matrix spinups. We assess the fully-coupled model against modern ocean observations, the historical record since 1960, and a business-as-usual atmospheric CO2 forcing to the year 2300. The model simulates a global decline in net primary production (NPP) of 1.3 % having occurred since the 1960s, with the strongest declines in the tropics, northern mid-latitudes, and Southern Ocean. The simulated global decline in NPP reverses after the year 2100 (forced by the extended RCP CO2 concentration scenario), and NPP returns to pre-industrial rates by 2300. This recovery is dominated by increasing primary production in the Southern Ocean, mostly by calcifying phytoplankton. Large increases in calcifying phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean offset a decline in the low latitudes, producing a global net calcite export in 2300 that varies only slightly from pre-industrial rates. Diatoms migrate southward in our simulations, following the receding Antarctic ice front, but are out-competed by calcifiers across most of their pre-industrial Southern Ocean habitat. Global opal export production thus drops to 50 % of its pre-industrial value by 2300. Model nutrients phosphate, silicate, and nitrate build up along the Southern Ocean particle export pathway, but dissolved iron (for which ocean sources are held constant) increases in the upper ocean. This different behaviour of iron is attributed to a reduction of low-latitude NPP (and consequently, a reduction in both uptake and export and particle, including calcite, scavenging), an increase in seawater temperatures (raising the solubility of particle forms), and stratification that "traps" the iron near the surface. These results are meant to serve as a baseline for sensitivity assessments to be undertaken with this model in the future.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 12-02-2020
DOI: 10.5194/BG-2020-9
Abstract: Abstract. Global biogeochemical ocean models are often tuned to match the observed distributions and fluxes of inorganic and organic quantities. This tuning is typically carried out by hand. However, this rather subjective approach might not yield the best fit to observations, is closely linked to the circulation employed, and thus influenced by its specific features and even its faults. We here investigate the effect of model tuning, via objective optimisation, of one biogeochemical model of intermediate complexity when simulated in five different offline circulations. For each circulation, three of six model parameters have adjusted to characteristic features of the respective circulation. The values of these three parameters – namely, the oxygen utilisation of remineralisation, the particle flux parameter and potential nitrogen fixation rate – correlate significantly with deep mixing and ideal age of NADW and the outcrop area of AAIW and SAMW in the Southern Ocean. The clear relationship between these parameters and circulation characteristics, which can be easily diagnosed from global models, can provide guidance when tuning global biogeochemistry within any new circulation model. The results from 20 global cross-validation experiments show that parameter sets optimised for a specific circulation can be transferred between similar circulations without losing too much of the model's fit to observed quantities. When compared to model intercomparisons of subjectively tuned, global coupled biogeochemistry-circulation models, each with different circulation and/or biogeochemistry, our results show a much lower range of oxygen inventory, OMZ volume and global biogeochemical fluxes. Export production depends to a large extent on the circulation applied, while deep particle flux is mostly determined by the particle flux parameter. Oxygen inventory, OMZ volume, primary production and fixed nitrogen turnover depend more or less equally on both factors, with OMZ volume showing the highest sensitivity, and residual variability. These results show a beneficial effect of optimisation, even when a biogeochemical model is first optimised in a relatively coarse circulation, and then transferred to a different, finer resolution circulation model.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-04-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-021-22554-W
Abstract: Global warming has driven a loss of dissolved oxygen in the ocean in recent decades. We demonstrate the potential for an additional anthropogenic driver of deoxygenation, in which zooplankton consumption of microplastic reduces the grazing on primary producers. In regions where primary production is not limited by macronutrient availability, the reduction of grazing pressure on primary producers causes export production to increase. Consequently, organic particle remineralisation in these regions increases. Employing a comprehensive Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we estimate this additional remineralisation could decrease water column oxygen inventory by as much as 10% in the North Pacific and accelerate global oxygen inventory loss by an extra 0.2–0.5% relative to 1960 values by the year 2020. Although significant uncertainty accompanies these estimates, the potential for physical pollution to have a globally significant biogeochemical signal that exacerbates the consequences of climate warming is a novel feedback not yet considered in climate research.
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 21-01-2020
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-02-2019
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-02-2019
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 24-02-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2020GB006851
Abstract: Biological nitrogen fixation is an important oceanic nitrogen source, potentially stabilizing marine fertility in an increasingly stratified and nutrient‐depleted ocean. Iron limitation of low latitude primary producers has been previously demonstrated to affect simulated regional ecosystem responses to climate warming or nitrogen cycle perturbation. Here we use three biogeochemical models that vary in their representation of the iron cycle to estimate change in the marine nitrogen cycle under a high CO 2 emissions future scenario (RCP8.5). The first model neglects explicit iron effects on biology (NoFe), the second utilizes prescribed, seasonally cyclic iron concentrations and associated limitation factors (FeMask), and the third contains a fully dynamic iron cycle (FeDyn). Models were calibrated using observed fields to produce near‐equivalent nutrient and oxygen fits, with productivity ranging from 49 to 75 Pg C yr −1 . Global marine nitrogen fixation increases by 71.1% with respect to the preindustrial value by the year 2100 in NoFe, while it remains stable (0.7% decrease in FeMask and 0.3% increase in FeDyn) in explicit iron models. The mitigation of global nitrogen fixation trend in the models that include a representation of iron originates in the Eastern boundary upwelling zones, where the bottom‐up control of iron limitation reduces export production with warming, which shrinks the oxygen deficient volume, and reduces denitrification. Warming‐induced trends in the oxygen deficient volume in the upwelling zones have a cascading effect on the global nitrogen cycle, just as they have previously been shown to affect tropical net primary production.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-02-2022
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.16129
Abstract: Writing in this issue of Global Change Biology, Shiye Zhao and co-authors report a microplastic soup extending thousands of meters below the South Atlantic Subtropical Gyre. This discovery contributes two pieces to the missing plastic puzzle- (1) nets have been under-s ling the smallest microplastic size fraction, which is actually not missing when using high-volume filtration, and (2) small microplastics in particular find their way below the surface. But their results also contribute several new questions, because some of what they found is quite surprising. This article is a Research Article on Zhao et al., 0.1111/gcb.16089.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 29-10-2019
Abstract: Iron is represented in biogeochemical ocean models by a variety of structurally different approaches employing generally poorly constrained empirical parameterizations. Increasing the structural complexity of iron modules also increases computational costs and introduces additional uncertainties, with as yet unclear benefits. In order to demonstrate the benefits of explicitly representing iron, we calibrate a hierarchy of iron modules and evaluate the remaining model-data misfit. The first module includes a complex iron cycle with major processes resolved explicitly, the second module applies iron limitation in primary production using prescribed monthly iron concentration fields, and the third module does not explicitly include iron effects at all. All three modules are embedded into the same circulation model. Models are calibrated against global data sets of NO 3 , PO 4 and O 2 applying a state-of-the-art multi-variable constraint parameter optimization. The model with fully resolved iron cycle is marginally (up to 4.8%) better at representing global distributions of NO 3 , PO 4 and O 2 compared to models with implicit or absent parameterizations of iron. We also found a slow down of global surface nutrient cycling by about 30% and a shift of productivity from the tropics to temperate regions for the explicit iron module. The explicit iron model also reduces the otherwise overestimated volume of suboxic waters, yielding results closer to observations.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 25-10-2017
Abstract: Abstract. Treatment of the underwater light field in ocean biogeochemical models has been attracting increasing interest, with some models moving towards more complex parameterisations. We conduct a simple sensitivity study of a typical, highly simplified parameterisation. In our study, we vary the phytoplankton light attenuation parameter over a range constrained by data during both pre-industrial equilibrated and future climate scenario RCP8.5. In equilibrium, lower light attenuation parameters (weaker self-shading) shift net primary production (NPP) towards the high latitudes, while higher values of light attenuation (stronger shelf-shading) shift NPP towards the low latitudes. Climate forcing magnifies this relationship through changes in the distribution of nutrients both within and between ocean regions. Where and how NPP responds to climate forcing can determine the magnitude and sign of global NPP trends in this high CO2 future scenario. Ocean oxygen is particularly sensitive to parameter choice. Under higher CO2 concentrations, two simulations establish a strong biogeochemical feedback between the Southern Ocean and low-latitude Pacific that highlights the potential for regional teleconnection. Our simulations serve as a reminder that shifts in fundamental properties (e.g. light attenuation by phytoplankton) over deep time have the potential to alter global biogeochemistry.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-02-2019
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 18-12-2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-07-2022
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 05-2018
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-07-2023
Abstract: Abstract. While several processes have been identified to explain the decrease in atmospheric CO2 during glaciations, a better quantification of the contribution of each of these processes is needed. For ex le, enhanced aeolian iron input into the ocean during glacial times has been suggested to drive a 5 to 28 ppm atmospheric CO2 decrease. Here, we constrain this contribution by performing a set of sensitivity experiments with different aeolian iron input patterns and iron solubility factors under boundary conditions corresponding to 70 000 years before present (70 ka), a time period characterised by the first observed peak in glacial dust flux. We show that the decrease in CO2 as a function of Southern Ocean iron input follows an exponential decay relationship. This exponential decay response arises due to the saturation of the biological pump efficiency and levels out at ∼21 ppm in our simulations. We show that the changes in atmospheric CO2 are more sensitive to the solubility of iron in the ocean than the regional distribution of the iron fluxes. If surface water iron solubility is considered constant through time, we find a CO2 drawdown of ∼4 to ∼8 ppm. However, there is evidence that iron solubility was higher during glacial times. A best estimate of solubility changing from 1 % during interglacials to 3 % to 5 % under glacial conditions yields a ∼9 to 11 ppm CO2 decrease at 70 ka, while a plausible range of CO2 drawdown between 4 to 16 ppm is obtained using the wider but possible range of 1 % to 10 %. This would account for ∼12 %–50 % of the reconstructed decrease in atmospheric CO2 (∼32 ppm) between 71 and 64 ka. We further find that in our simulations the decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentration is solely driven by iron fluxes south of the Antarctic polar front, while iron fertilisation elsewhere plays a negligible role.
Publisher: Authorea, Inc.
Date: 27-07-2023
DOI: 10.22541/ESSOAR.169049091.16856096/V1
Abstract: Realistic model representation of ocean phytoplankton is important for simulating nutrient cycles and the biological carbon pump, which affects atmospheric carbon dioxide ( p CO) concentrations and, thus, climate. Until recently, most models assumed constant ratios (or stoichiometry) of phosphorous (P), nitrogen (N), silicon (Si), and carbon (C) in phytoplankton, despite observations indicating systematic variations. Here, we investigate the effects of variable stoichiometry on simulated nutrient distributions, plankton community compositions, and the C cycle in the preindustrial (PI) and glacial oceans. Using a biogeochemical model, a linearly increasing P:N relation to increasing PO is implemented for ordinary phytoplankton (P), and a nonlinearly decreasing Si:N relation to increasing Fe is applied to diatoms (P). C:N remains fixed. Variable P:N affects modeled community composition through enhanced PO availability, which increases N-fixers in the oligotrophic ocean, consistent with previous research. This increases the NO fertilization of P, the NO inventory, and the total plankton biomass. Surface nutrients are not significantly altered. Conversely, variable Si:N shifts south the Southern Ocean’s meridional surface silicate gradient, which aligns better with observations, but depresses P growth globally. In Last Glacial Maximum simulations, P respond to more oligotrophic conditions by increasing their C:P. This strengthens the biologically mediated C storage such that dissolved organic (inorganic) C inventories increase by 34-40 (38-50) Pg C and 0.7-1.2 Pg yr more particulate C is exported into the interior ocean. Thus, an additional 13-14 ppm of p CO difference from PI levels results, improving model agreement with glacial observations.
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 09-02-2023
DOI: 10.3389/FMARS.2023.1111838
Abstract: Microplastic is a ubiquitous marine pollutant whose small dimensions make it biologically available to phytoplankton and zooplankton. These organisms are crucial as the basis of the marine food web and for the export of organic material in the form of faecal pellets from the surface to deeper in the water column, forming a long-term carbon sink. Previous laboratory studies have demonstrated empirically that ingestion of low density microplastics reduces the sinking rates of zooplankton faecal pellets. This study uses a complex earth system model to analyse this effect and assess its wider impacts in a changing climate. Results show that the slowing of faecal pellet sinking stimulates changes to ecosystems regionally and reduces ocean carbon uptake by about 4.4 Pg C between the years 1950-2100, 0.24% of anthropogenic emissions over this time. However, perturbation of organic particle fluxes is significant, especially in gyres, and of the order of climate change impacts over the same time period. We calculate that plastics carbon has a 3 orders of magnitude greater impact on marine ecosystems than atmospheric carbon over our centennial timescale. Large uncertainties in model parameters and simplistic model structure suggest our results should be interpreted as motivation to further investigate parameter estimation, calcification responses to pollution, and the combined effects of multiple impact mechanisms on ecosystems.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 26-11-2018
DOI: 10.5194/BG-2018-467
Abstract: Abstract. Phytoplankton calcifiers contribute to global carbon cycling through their dual formation of calcium carbonate and particulate organic carbon (POC). The carbonate might provide an efficient export pathway for the associated POC to the deep ocean, reducing the particles' exposure to biological degradation in the upper ocean and increasing the particle settling rate. Previous work has suggested ballasting of POC by carbonate might increase in a warming climate, in spite of increasing carbonate dissolution rates, because calcifiers benefit from the widespread nutrient limitation arising from stratification. We compare the biogeochemical responses of three models containing 1) a single mixed phytoplankton class, 2) additional explicit small phytoplankton and calcifiers, and 3) additional explicit small phytoplankton and calcifiers with a prognostic carbonate ballast model, to two rapid changes in atmospheric CO2. The first CO2 scenario represents a rapid (150 year) transition from a stable icehouse climate (285 ppm) into a greenhouse climate (1257 ppm) the second represents a symmetric rapid transition from a stable greenhouse climate into an icehouse climate. We identify a slope change in the global net primary production response with a transition point at about 3.5 °C global mean sea surface temperature change in all models, driven by a combination of physics and biology. We also find that in both warming and cooling scenarios, the application of a prognostic carbonate ballast model moderates changes in carbon export production, suboxic volume, and nitrate sources and sinks, reducing the long-term model response to about one-third that of the calcifier model without ballast. Explicit small phytoplankton and calcifiers, and carbonate ballasting, increase the physical separation of nitrate sources and sinks through a combination of phytoplankton competition and lengthened remineralization profile, resulting in a significantly higher global nitrate inventory in this model compared to the single phytoplankton type model (15 % and 32 % higher, for icehouse and greenhouse climates). Higher nitrate inventory alleviates nitrate limitation, increasing phytoplankton sensitivity to changes in physical limitation factors (light and temperature). This larger sensitivity to physical forcing produces stronger shifts in ocean phosphate storage between icehouse and greenhouse climates. The greenhouse climate is found to hold phosphate and nitrate deeper in the ocean, despite a shorter remineralization length scale than the icehouse climate, because of the longer residence times of the deep water masses. We conclude the global biogeochemical impact of calcifiers extends beyond their role in global carbon cycling, and that the ecological composition of the global ocean can affect how ocean biogeochemistry responds to climate forcing.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 14-03-2014
Abstract: Abstract. Marine calcifiers as a plankton functional type (PFT) are a crucial part of the global carbon cycle, being responsible for much of the carbon export to the deep ocean entering via biological pathways. Deep ocean carbon export through calcifiers is controlled by physiological, ecological and biogeochemical factors. This paper describes the implementation of a phytoplankton coccolithophore PFT in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and improvements to the representation of zooplankton calcification and carbon export therein. The described modifications improve model performance with respect to carbon and nutrient fluxes. Primary production, export production, particulate organic carbon and calcite fluxes all fall within independent estimates.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-03-2020
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU2020-6151
Abstract: & & Increasing the complexity& of the representation of iron in an earth system model can lead to significant differences in surface ocean nutrient pathways in a pre-industrial climate. These differences persist even after automated calibration forces the models to achieve similar fit to the same observational data. We explore the impact of these nutrient pathway differences in the context of climate change by forcing the models (one without iron, one with a seasonally-cyclic iron mask, and one with a fully dynamic iron module) with the RCP8.5 business-as-usual atmospheric CO& sub& & /sub& concentration scenario from years 1800 until 2100. We find that while the global oxygen inventory drops across all models over this period, different trends in the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) volume arise. Models with iron represented simulate decreases between 60 and 80 percent in OMZ volume, while the model without iron simulates an OMZ volume increase of 10 percent. The difference is attributed to the role of iron limitation in regulating the low latitude primary production response to warming and stratification. We further quantify the corresponding denitrification trends and impact on ocean nitrate inventory.& This study illustrates that model structural uncertainty further challenges predictions under a changing climate, and highlights the strong role of iron in regulating nutrient cycling and ocean deoxygenation.& &
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2012
DOI: 10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00030.1
Abstract: Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could lead to undesirable effects on oceans in coming centuries. Drawing on recommendations published by the German Advisory Council on Global Change, levels of unacceptable global marine change (so-called guardrails) are defined in terms of global mean temperature, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. A global-mean climate model [the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model (ACC2)] is coupled with an economic module [taken from the Dynamic Integrated Climate–Economy Model (DICE)] to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to derive CO2 emission pathways that both minimize abatement costs and are compatible with these guardrails. Additionally, the “tolerable windows approach” is used to calculate a range of CO2 emissions paths that obey the guardrails as well as a restriction on mitigation rate. Prospects of meeting the global mean temperature change guardrail (2° and 0.2°C decade−1 relative to preindustrial) depend strongly on assumed values for climate sensitivity: at climate sensitivities & °C the guardrail cannot be attained under any CO2 emissions reduction strategy without mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. The ocean acidification guardrail (0.2 unit pH decline relative to preindustrial) is less restrictive than the absolute temperature guardrail at climate sensitivities & .5°C but becomes more constraining at lower climate sensitivities. The sea level rise and rate of rise guardrails (1 m and 5 cm decade−1) are substantially less stringent for ice sheet sensitivities derived in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, but they may already be committed to violation if ice sheet sensitivities consistent with semiempirical sea level rise projections are assumed.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-05-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-022-04687-0
Abstract: Diatoms account for up to 40% of marine primary production 1,2 and require silicic acid to grow and build their opal shell 3 . On the physiological and ecological level, diatoms are thought to be resistant to, or even benefit from, ocean acidification 4–6 . Yet, global-scale responses and implications for biogeochemical cycles in the future ocean remain largely unknown. Here we conducted five in situ mesocosm experiments with natural plankton communities in different biomes and find that ocean acidification increases the elemental ratio of silicon (Si) to nitrogen (N) of sinking biogenic matter by 17 ± 6 per cent under $${{p}}_{{{\\rm{CO}}}_{2}}$$ p CO 2 conditions projected for the year 2100. This shift in Si:N seems to be caused by slower chemical dissolution of silica at decreasing seawater pH. We test this finding with global sediment trap data, which confirm a widespread influence of pH on Si:N in the oceanic water column. Earth system model simulations show that a future pH-driven decrease in silica dissolution of sinking material reduces the availability of silicic acid in the surface ocean, triggering a global decline of diatoms by 13–26 per cent due to ocean acidification by the year 2200. This outcome contrasts sharply with the conclusions of previous experimental studies, thereby illustrating how our current understanding of biological impacts of ocean change can be considerably altered at the global scale through unexpected feedback mechanisms in the Earth system.
Location: No location found
Location: Brazil
Start Date: 2023
End Date: 2026
Funder: Marsden Fund
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2023
End Date: 2026
Funder: Marsden Fund
View Funded Activity