ORCID Profile
0000-0002-2324-2120
Current Organisation
Monash University
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Research Topics
In Research Link Australia (RLA), "Research Topics" refer to ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes. These topics are either sourced from ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes listed in researchers' related grants or generated by a large language model (LLM) based on their publications.
Top 5 Research Topics
ANZSRC Field of Research (FoR)
Other Biological Sciences | Glaciology | Environmental Management | Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience | Climate Change Processes | Global Change Biology
ANZSRC Socio-Economic Objective (SEO)
Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Environments (excl. Social Impacts) | Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences | Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Environments | Environmental Policy, Legislation and Standards not elsewhere classified | Climate Change Models |
Related Links
Publications
A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 12-06-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073596
Aurora Basin, the Weak Underbelly of East Antarctica
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 29-04-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL086821
The Double-Peaked El Niño and Its Physical Processes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2021
Abstract: Recently, El Niño ersity has been paid much attention because of its different global impacts. However, most studies have focused on a single warm peak in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), either in the central Pacific or the eastern Pacific Ocean. Here, we demonstrate from observational analyses that several recent El Niño events show double warm peaks in SSTA—called “double-peaked (DP) El Niño”—that have only been observed since 2000. The DP El Niño has two warm centers, which grow concurrently but separately, in both the central and eastern Pacific. In general, the atmospheric and oceanic patterns of the DP El Niño are similar to those of the warm-pool (WP) El Niño from the development phase, such that the central Pacific peak is developed by the zonal advective feedback and reduced wind speed anomalies. However, a distinctive difference exists in the eastern Pacific where the DP El Niño has a second SSTA peak. In addition, the DP El Niño shows more distinctive anomalous precipitation along the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) when compared with the WP El Niño. We demonstrate that the peculiar precipitation anomalies along the Pacific ITCZ play a critical role in enhancing the equatorial westerly wind stress anomalies, which help to develop the eastern SSTA peak by deepening the thermocline in the eastern Pacific.
A high-resolution synthetic bed elevation grid of the Antarctic continent
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 05-05-2017
Abstract: Abstract. Digital elevation models of Antarctic bed topography are smoothed and interpolated onto low-resolution ( 1 km) grids as current observed topography data are generally sparsely and unevenly s led. This issue has potential implications for numerical simulations of ice-sheet dynamics, especially in regions prone to instability where detailed knowledge of the topography, including fine-scale roughness, is required. Here, we present a high-resolution (100 m) synthetic bed elevation terrain for Antarctica, encompassing the continent, continental shelf, and seas south of 60° S. Although not identically matching observations, the synthetic bed surface – denoted as HRES – preserves topographic roughness characteristics of airborne and ground-based ice-penetrating radar data measured by the ICECAP (Investigating the Cryospheric Evolution of the Central Antarctic Plate) consortium or used to create the Bedmap1 compilation. Broad-scale ( 5 km resolution) features of the Antarctic landscape are incorporated using a low-pass filter of the Bedmap2 bed elevation data. HRES has applicability in high-resolution ice-sheet modelling studies, including investigations of the interaction between topography, ice-sheet dynamics, and hydrology, where processes are highly sensitive to bed elevations and fine-scale roughness. The data are available for download from the Australian Antarctic Data Centre (doi:10.4225/15/57464ADE22F50).
Assessing the potential for ice flow piracy between Totten and Vanderford glaciers, East Antarctica
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 08-06-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-2023-872
Abstract: Abstract. The largest regional drivers of current surface elevation increases in the Antarctic Ice Sheet are associated with ice flow reconfiguration in previously active ice streams, highlighting the important role of ice dynamics in responding to climate change. Here, we investigate controls on the evolution of the flow configuration of the Vanderford and Totten Glaciers – key outlet glaciers of the Aurora Subglacial Basin, the most rapidly thinning region of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. We review factors that influence the ice flow in this region, and use an ice sheet model to investigate the sensitivity of the catchment ide location to thinning at Vanderford Glacier associated with ongoing retreat, and thickening at Totten Glacier associated with an intensification of the east-west snowfall gradient. The present-day catchment ide between the Totten and Vanderford Glaciers is not constrained by the geology or topography, but is determined by the large-scale ice sheet geometry and its long-term evolution in response to climate forcing. Furthermore, the catchment ide is subject to migration under relatively small changes in surface elevation, leading to ice flow and basal water piracy from Totten to Vanderford Glacier. Our findings show that ice flow reconfigurations do not only occur in regions of West Antarctica like the Siple Coast, but also in the east, motivating further investigations of past, and potential for future, ice flow reconfigurations around the whole Antarctic coastline. Such modelling of ice flow and basal water piracy may require coupled ice sheet thermomechanical and subglacial hydrology models, constrained by field observations of subglacial conditions. Our results also have implications for ice sheet mass budget studies that integrate over catchments, and the validity of the zero flow assumption when selecting sites for ice core records of past climate.
Controls on the flow configuration of Vanderford Glacier, East Antarctica
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-3216
Abstract: Vanderford Glacier is one of the fastest retreating glaciers in East Antarctica, with approximately 18.6 km of grounding line retreat since 1996. Together with the Totten Glacier, the Vanderford Glacier is a key outlet glacier of the Aurora Subglacial Basin (ASB), which contains approximately 7 m of global sea level equivalent, of which ~3.5 m is vulnerable to ocean driven melting, and is rapidly losing mass. While the Totten Glacier currently discharges almost twice as much ice as the Vanderford Glacier, sediment records from the Sabrina and Knox Coast Sectors indicate that the Vanderford Glacier has had sedimentation rates over twice that at Totten in the past. Here, we examine the current flow configuration between Vanderford and Totten Glaciers and drivers of it, including interactions between the subglacial topography, hydraulic potential, climate, and ice sheet dynamics. We use the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) under experiments of heightened ocean warming concentrated at Vanderford Glacier, and heightened surface mass balance at Totten Glacier, to show that the present-day flow configuration between the Totten and Vanderford Glaciers is tenuous. Rerouting towards Vanderford Glacier could occur under even minor changes in surface elevation at both glaciers. Such rerouting potentially exposes large parts of the underbelly of the ASB to enhanced ocean-driven ice shelf melting in the event of rapid retreat of Vanderford Glacier, with implications for global sea level rise.
A 3D map of englacial attenuation rate from radar reflections at Law Dome, East Antarctica
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 27-10-2020
Abstract: Abstract. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is the largest source of potential sea-level rise, containing approximately 52 m of sea-level equivalent. To constrain estimates of sea-level rise into the future requires knowledge of ice-sheet properties and geometry and ice-penetrating radar offers a means to estimate these properties (e.g. ice thickness, englacial temperatures). One of the regions that have been extensively surveyed using ice-penetrating radar from the Investigating the Cryospheric Evolution of the Central Antarctic Plate (ICECAP) project in East Antarctica is Law Dome, a small independent ice cap situated to the west of Totten Ice Shelf. The ice cap is slow-moving, has a low melt-rate at the surface and moderate wind speeds, making it a useful study site for estimating the radar attenuation. A new method is proposed for the estimation of attenuation rate from radar data which is mathematically modelled as a constrained regularised l2 minimisation problem. In the proposed method, only radar data is required and the englacial reflectors are automatically detected from the radar data itself. To validate our methodology, attenuation differences at flight crossover points are calculated and statistical analyses performed to assess the accuracy of the results. For spatial analyses, the errors are of the order 22.6 %, 15.2 %, and 32.8 % for mean absolute error, median absolute error, and root mean square error respectively. Also, for the depth analyses, up to the depth of 800 m, the errors are under 29.9 %, 24.2 %, and 38.8 % for mean absolute error, median absolute error, and root mean square error respectively. A final product of 3D attenuation rates and uncertainty estimates is provided. The generated dataset is publicly available at 0.25959/5e6851e266f4a (Abdul Salam, 2020).
Recent developments in modeling ice sheet deformation
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-03-2020
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU2020-4188
Abstract: & & Viscous deformation is the main process controlling ice flow in ice shelves and in slow-moving regions of polar ice sheets where ice is frozen to the bed. However, the role of deformation in flow in ice streams and fast-flowing regions is typically poorly represented in ice sheet models due to a major limitation in the current standard flow relation used in most large-scale ice sheet models & #8211 the Glen flow relation & #8211 which does not capture the steady-state flow of anisotropic ice that prevails in polar ice sheets. Here, we highlight recent advances in modeling deformation in the Ice Sheet System Model using the ESTAR (empirical, scalar, tertiary, anisotropic regime) flow relation & #8211 a new description of deformation that takes into account the impact of different types of stresses on the deformation rate. We contrast the influence of the ESTAR and Glen flow relations on the role of deformation in the dynamics of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, using diagnostic simulations. We find key differences in: (1) the slow-flowing interior of the catchment where the unenhanced Glen flow relation simulates unphysical basal sliding (2) over the floating Thwaites Glacier Tongue where the ESTAR flow relation outperforms the Glen flow relation in accounting for tertiary creep and the spatial differences in deformation rates inherent to ice anisotropy and (3) in the grounded region within 80km of the grounding line where the ESTAR flow relation locally predicts up to three times more vertical shear deformation than the unenhanced Glen flow relation, from a combination of enhanced vertical shear flow and differences in the distribution of basal shear stresses. More broadly on grounded ice, the membrane stresses are found to play a key role in the patterns in basal shear stresses and the balance between basal shear stresses and gravitational forces simulated by each of the ESTAR and Glen flow relations. Our results have implications for the suitability of ice flow relations used to constrain uncertainty in reconstructions and projections of global sea levels, warranting further investigation into using the ESTAR flow relation in transient simulations of glacier and ice sheet dynamics. We conclude by discussing how geophysical data might be used to provide insight into the relationship between ice flow processes as captured by the ESTAR flow relation and ice fabric anisotropy.& &
Surface melt on the Shackleton Ice Shelf, East Antarctica (2003–2021)
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 27-10-2022
Abstract: Abstract. Melt on the surface of Antarctic ice shelves can potentially lead to their disintegration, accelerating the flow of grounded ice to the ocean and raising global sea levels. However, the current understanding of the processes driving surface melt is incomplete, increasing uncertainty in predictions of ice shelf stability and thus of Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise. Previous studies of surface melt in Antarctica have usually focused on either a process-level understanding of melt through energy-balance investigations or used metrics such as the annual number of melt days to quantify spatiotemporal variability in satellite observations of surface melt. Here, we help bridge the gap between work at these two scales. Using daily passive microwave observations from the AMSR-E and AMSR-2 sensors and the machine learning approach of a self-organising map, we identify nine representative spatial distributions (“patterns”) of surface melt on the Shackleton Ice Shelf in East Antarctica from 2002/03–2020/21. Combined with output from the RACMO2.3p3 regional climate model and surface topography from the REMA digital elevation model, our results point to a significant role for surface air temperatures in controlling the interannual variability in summer melt and also reveal the influence of localised controls on melt. In particular, prolonged melt along the grounding line shows the importance of katabatic winds and surface albedo. Our approach highlights the necessity of understanding both local and large-scale controls on surface melt and demonstrates that self-organising maps can be used to investigate the variability in surface melt on Antarctic ice shelves.
Supplementary material to "Surface melt on the Shackleton Ice Shelf, East Antarctica (2003–2021)"
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 11-05-2022
A note on digital elevation model smoothing and driving stresses
Publisher: Norwegian Polar Institute
Date: 28-03-2019
Implementing an empirical scalar tertiary anisotropic rheology (ESTAR) into large-scale ice sheet models
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 05-05-2017
DOI: 10.5194/TC-2017-54
Abstract: Abstract. The microstructural evolution that occurs in polycrystalline ice during deformation leads to the development of anisotropic rheological properties that are not adequately described by the most common, isotropic, ice flow relation used in large-scale ice sheet models – the Glen flow relation. We present a preliminary assessment of the implementation in the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) of a computationally-efficient, empirical, scalar, tertiary, anisotropic rheology (ESTAR). The effect of this anisotropic rheology on ice flow dynamics is investigated by comparing idealised simulations using ESTAR with those using the isotropic Glen flow relation, where the latter includes a flow enhancement factor. For an idealised embayed ice shelf, the Glen flow relation overestimates velocities by up to 17 % when using an enhancement factor equivalent to the maximum value prescribed by ESTAR. Importantly, no single Glen enhancement factor can accurately capture the spatial variations in flow over the ice shelf. For flow-line studies of idealised grounded flow over a bumpy topography or a sticky base – both scenarios dominated at depth by bed-parallel shear – the differences between simulated velocities using ESTAR and the Glen flow relation vary according to the value of the enhancement factor used to calibrate the Glen flow relation. These results demonstrate the importance of describing the anisotropic rheology of ice in a physically realistic manner, and have implications for simulations of ice sheet evolution used to reconstruct paleo-ice sheet extent and predict future ice sheet contributions to sea level.
Modeling the Deformation Regime of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, Using a Simple Flow Relation for Ice Anisotropy (ESTAR)
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021JF006332
Abstract: Ice deformation dominates the evolution of ice shelf flow and the slow‐moving regions in the interior of ice sheets. However, deformation may be poorly represented in large‐scale ice sheet models that use the Glen flow relation, due to its questionable applicability to the steady‐state flow of anisotropic ice that prevails in ice sheets, having been derived from secondary creep rates of isotropic ice. We assess the deformation regimes of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, using the Glen and “Empirical Scalar Tertiary Anisotropy Regime”, (ESTAR) flow relations, the latter being derived from steady‐state deformation rates of anisotropic ice. For grounded ice, the character of the flow relation determines the contribution of deformation to overall flow, with ESTAR producing greater bed‐parallel shear deformation than the standard Glen flow relation. The ESTAR experiments show larger basal shear stress maxima than the standard Glen experiment because ESTAR treats the responses to simple shear stresses and compression stresses differently, reducing the role of lateral and longitudinal stresses in momentum balance. On the Thwaites Glacier Tongue, ESTAR provides the best match to observed speeds by accounting for the differing effects of stresses on ice flow. Our results highlight the importance of the numerical description of anisotropy, particularly: In regions of transition from deformation‐dominated to sliding‐dominated flow in the approach to the grounding line, and across ice shelves. Given the importance of these locations in determining mass flux into the ocean, our results have implications for projections of sea level change from Antarctic ice loss.
Fine‐Scale Geothermal Heat Flow in Antarctica Can Increase Simulated Subglacial Melt Estimates
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 14-08-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022GL098539
Abstract: Antarctic geothermal heat flow (GHF) affects the thermal regime of ice sheets and simulations of ice and subglacial meltwater discharge to the ocean, but remains poorly constrained. We use an ice sheet model to investigate the impact of GHF anomalies on subglacial meltwater production in the Aurora Subglacial Basin, East Antarctica. We find that spatially‐variable GHF fields produce more meltwater than a constant GHF with the same background mean, and meltwater production increases as the resolution of GHF anomalies increases. Our results suggest that model simulations of this region systematically underestimate meltwater production using current GHF models. We determine the minimum basal heating required to bring the basal ice temperature to the pressure melting point, which should be taken together with the scale‐length of likely local variability in targeting in‐situ GHF field c aigns.
Reconciling Unevenly Sampled Paleoclimate Proxies: a Gaussian Kernel Correlation Multiproxy Reconstruction
Publisher: International Society for Environmental Information Science (ISEIS)
Date: 2019
Response to reviewers
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 10-08-2017
The Sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a Changing Climate: Past, Present, and Future
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-11-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019RG000663
Abstract: The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is out of equilibrium with the current anthropogenic‐enhanced climate forcing. Paleoenvironmental records and ice sheet models reveal that the AIS has been tightly coupled to the climate system during the past and indicate the potential for accelerated and sustained Antarctic ice mass loss into the future. Modern observations by contrast suggest that the AIS has only just started to respond to climate change in recent decades. The maximum projected sea level contribution from Antarctica to 2100 has increased significantly since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report, although estimates continue to evolve with new observational and theoretical advances. This review brings together recent literature highlighting the progress made on the known processes and feedbacks that influence the stability of the AIS. Reducing the uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of the future sea level response to AIS change requires a multidisciplinary approach that integrates knowledge of the interactions between the ice sheet, solid Earth, atmosphere, and ocean systems and across time scales of days to millennia. We start by reviewing the processes affecting AIS mass change, from atmospheric and oceanic processes acting on short time scales (days to decades), through to ice processes acting on intermediate time scales (decades to centuries) and the response to solid Earth interactions over longer time scales (decades to millennia). We then review the evidence of AIS changes from the Pliocene to the present and consider the projections of global sea level rise and their consequences. We highlight priority research areas required to improve our understanding of the processes and feedbacks governing AIS change.
Basal conditions of Denman Glacier from hydrology modeling and their application to various friction laws
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-9497
Abstract: The key process of basal sliding in Antarctic glaciers is often incorporated into ice dynamics models via the use of a friction law, which relates the basal shear stress to the effective pressure. With few ice dynamics models actively coupled to subglacial hydrology models, the effects of subglacial hydrology often manifest in the friction coefficient & #8211 an unknown parameter in the friction law. We investigate the impact of friction coefficients for Denman Glacier, East Antarctica, by comparing Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) inversion simulations using the effective pressure produced from the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model compared with & a typically prescribed effective pressure using a combination of ice overburden pressure and height above sea level (NO). We apply these comparative model runs for the Budd and Schoof friction laws. In regions of fast ice flow, we find a positive correlation between the GlaDS output effective pressure and the friction coefficient for the Schoof law. In addition, using the GlaDS output effective pressure compared to & NO leads to a smoother friction coefficient as well as smaller differences between the simulated and observed surface velocity. In general we find that spatial variations in the Schoof law match more closely with the known physics of subglacial hydrology than the Budd law and therefore suggest that using the GlaDS output effective pressure compared to NO produces more realistic results. This demonstrates the need to couple ice sheet and subglacial hydrological systems to accurately represent ice flow.
Basal conditions of Denman Glacier from glacier hydrology and ice dynamics modeling
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-03-2023
DOI: 10.5194/TC-2023-28
Abstract: Abstract. Basal sliding in Antarctic glaciers is often modeled using a friction law that relates basal shear stresses to the effective pressure. As few ice sheet models are dynamically coupled to subglacial hydrology models, variability in subglacial hydrology associated with the effective pressure is often implicitly captured in the friction coefficient – an unknown parameter in the friction law. We investigate the impact of using effective pressures calculated from the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on friction coefficients calculated using inverse methods in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) at Denman Glacier, East Antarctica, for the Schoof and Budd friction laws. For the Schoof friction law, a positive correlation emerges between the GlaDS effective pressure and friction coefficient in regions of fast ice flow. Using GlaDS effective pressures generally leads to smoother friction coefficients and basal shear stresses, and smaller differences between the simulated and observed velocities, compared with using an effective pressure equal to the ice overburden pressure plus the gravitational potential energy of the water. Compared with the Budd law, the Schoof law offers improved capabilities in capturing the spatial variations associated with known physics of the subglacial hydrology. Our results indicate that ice sheet model representation of basal sliding is more realistic when using direct outputs from a subglacial hydrology model, demonstrating the importance of coupling between ice sheet and subglacial hydrological systems. However, using our outputs we have also developed an empirical parameterization that improves application of the Schoof law without requiring explicit hydrological modeling.
Author Correction: Antarctic geothermal heat flow and its implications for tectonics and ice sheets
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-11-2022
Projected changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean of importance to tuna fisheries
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-11-2012
The Impact of Variable Ocean Temperatures on Totten Glacier Stability and Discharge
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 18-05-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091790
Abstract: A major uncertainty in Antarctica's contribution to future sea‐level rise is the ice sheet response timescales to ocean warming. Totten Glacier drains a region containing 3.9 m global sea level equivalent and has been losing mass over recent decades. We use an ice sheet model coupled to an ice‐shelf cavity combined ocean box and plume model to investigate Totten's response to variable ocean forcing. Totten's grounding line is stable for a limited range of ocean temperatures near current observations (i.e., −0.95°C to −0.75°C), with topography influencing the discharge periodicity. For increases of ≥0.2°C in temperatures beyond this range, grounding line retreat occurs. Variable ocean forcing can reduce retreat relative to constant forcing, and different variability litudes can cause centennial‐scale delays in retreat through interactions with topography. Our results highlight the need for long‐term ocean state observations and to include forcing variability in ice sheet model simulations of future change.
Antarctic geothermal heat flow and its implications for tectonics and ice sheets
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-10-2022
Understanding the double peaked El Niño in coupled GCMs
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-06-2017
Integral correlation for uneven and differently sampled data, and its application to the Law Dome Antarctic climate record.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 15-10-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-020-74532-9
Abstract: We present a new simple and efficient method for correlation of unevenly and differently s led data. This new method overcomes problems with other methods for correlation with non-uniform s ling and is an easy modification to existing correlation based codes. To demonstrate the usefulness of this new method to real-world ex les, we apply the method with good success to two glaciological ex les to map the ages from a well-dated ice core to a nearby core, and by tracing isochronous layers within the ice sheet measured from ice-penetrating radar between the two ice core sites.
Ocean‐Driven and Topography‐Controlled Nonlinear Glacier Retreat During the Holocene: Southwestern Ross Sea, Antarctica
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-03-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091454
Abstract: Recent ice sheet mass loss in Antarctica has been attributed to an influx of warm ocean waters, which drove grounding‐line retreat and ice thinning. Episodic retreat and rapid thinning also occurred in the southwestern Ross Sea during the Holocene, which today accommodates cold ocean waters. We applied finite element ice‐flow modeling to investigate the roles of ocean temperature and bed topography in the deglaciation of this region. First, our experiments demonstrate that bed topography controlled the spatial pattern of grounding‐line retreat. Topographic pinning points limited the rate of ice loss until retreat progressed beyond a bathymetric threshold. Second, ocean thermal forcing determined the timing of this ice loss. Enhanced ocean‐driven melt is required during the Early‐to‐Mid Holocene to replicate geological records of deglaciation, possibly indicating that warm ocean waters were once present in this region. On multi‐centennial timescales, ocean temperature drove, while bed topography controlled, nonlinear rates of ice mass loss.
Surface melt on the Shackleton Ice Shelf, East Antarctica (2003–2021)
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 11-05-2022
DOI: 10.5194/TC-2022-94
Abstract: Abstract. Many ice shelves in Antarctica experience surface melt each summer, with potentially severe consequences for sea level rise. However, large interannual and regional variability in surface melt increases uncertainty in predictions of how ice shelves will react to climate change. Previous studies of surface melt have usually focused on either a process-level understanding of surface melt through energy balance investigations, or used regional melt metrics to quantify interannual variability in satellite observations of surface melt. Here, we use an approach that helps bridge the gap between work at these two scales. Using daily passive microwave observations from the AMSR-E and AMSR-2 sensors, and the machine learning approach of a self-organising map, we identify nine representative spatial distributions (“patterns”) of surface melt on the Shackleton Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, over the previous two decades (2002/03–2020/21). Our results point to a significant role for surface air temperatures in controlling the interannual variability of summer melt, and also reveal the influence of local controls on driving melt. In particular, prolonged melt in the south-east of the shelf and along the grounding line shows the importance of katabatic winds and surface albedo. Our approach highlights the necessity of understanding both local and large-scale controls on surface melt, and demonstrates that self-organising maps can be used to investigate the variability of surface melt on Antarctic ice shelves.
Insights from the spatial variability of (multiple) uncertainties: Earth-ice interactions for East Antarctica
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-1524
Abstract: Uncertainty, as applied to geophysical and multivariate initiatives to constrain aspects of Earth-ice interactions for East Antarctica, provides a number of approaches to appraise and interrogate research results.& We discuss a number of use cases: 1) making use of multiple uncertainty metrics 2) making comparisons between spatially variable maps of inferred properties such as geothermal heat flow 3) extrapolating crustal structure given the likelihood of tectonic boundaries and 4) providing research results for interdisciplinary studies in forms that facilitate ensemble approaches.& It proves extremely useful to assess a research finding, such as a mapped geophysical property, through multiple uncertainty metrics (e.g., standard deviation, information entropy, data count).& However, a thoughtful appraisal of multiple metrics could be misleading, i.e., potentially not useful in isolation, in a case where there are significant unquantified uncertainties.& Uncertainties supplied with the mapped geophysical properties can potentially be extended to capture this broader range, but that range in turn could become less helpful as the fine detail in the quantified uncertainty will be lost.& In the case of a property such as geothermal heat flow, indirectly determined for East Antarctica, insights can be drawn by subtracting a forward model map from an empirically determined result (e.g. Aq1) to yield the non-steady state components excluded in the forward model.& In such investigations, including the maximum and minimum possible difference between maps is essential to understand which non-steady state anomalies are real, and which could be artifacts attributable to (quantified) uncertainty.& In further use cases, we show how the few available seismic measurements that constrain the crust and upper mantle structure of East Antarctica can be placed in context, given the likelihood of major tectonic boundaries beneath the ice, and link this to published constraints on the seismic structure (and hence, rheology) of the deeper lithosphere.& In terms of how the solid Earth interacts with the ice sheet above, the impact of fine scale-length variations in spatial uncertainty may be investigated in relation to, for ex le, ice sheet modelling. For a large region and relatively unexplored region such as East Antarctica, uncertainty yields many and varied insights.&
Antarctic RINGS to characterize the Antarctic Ice Sheet coastal zone and Antarctic contribution to the global sea-level rise
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-15230
Abstract: Regions where the Antarctic Ice Sheet reaches the coast are fundamental to our understanding of the linkages between Antarctica and the global climate system. These coastal regions contain multiple potential tipping points for the Antarctic Ice Sheet in the ongoing 2oC warming world, which must be better understood to predict future sea-level rise. The Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty source in future sea-level projections, and this uncertainty is mainly rooted in poorly known bed topography under the ice sheet. Bed topography matters the most in the coastal regions as it controls the stability of the ice sheet. Together with an overview of the current multidisciplinary understandings of the Antarctic coastal regions, we present ensemble analysis of published datasets to present data and knowledge gaps, and their regional distribution is discussed in the context of ice-sheet evolution and instability. Finally, we identify outstanding science priorities and discuss protocols of airborne surveys to develop a comprehensive dataset uniformly all-around Antarctica.
Implementing an empirical scalar constitutive relation for ice with flow-induced polycrystalline anisotropy in large-scale ice sheet models
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-03-2018
Abstract: Abstract. The microstructure of polycrystalline ice evolves under prolonged deformation, leading to anisotropic patterns of crystal orientations. The response of this material to applied stresses is not adequately described by the ice flow relation most commonly used in large-scale ice sheet models – the Glen flow relation. We present a preliminary assessment of the implementation in the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) of a computationally efficient, empirical, scalar, constitutive relation which addresses the influence of the dynamically steady-state flow-compatible induced anisotropic crystal orientation patterns that develop when ice is subjected to the same stress regime for a prolonged period – sometimes termed tertiary flow. We call this the ESTAR flow relation. The effect on ice flow dynamics is investigated by comparing idealised simulations using ESTAR and Glen flow relations, where we include in the latter an overall flow enhancement factor. For an idealised embayed ice shelf, the Glen flow relation overestimates velocities by up to 17 % when using an enhancement factor equivalent to the maximum value prescribed in the ESTAR relation. Importantly, no single Glen enhancement factor can accurately capture the spatial variations in flow across the ice shelf generated by the ESTAR flow relation. For flow line studies of idealised grounded flow over varying topography or variable basal friction – both scenarios dominated at depth by bed-parallel shear – the differences between simulated velocities using ESTAR and Glen flow relations depend on the value of the enhancement factor used to calibrate the Glen flow relation. These results demonstrate the importance of describing the deformation of anisotropic ice in a physically realistic manner, and have implications for simulations of ice sheet evolution used to reconstruct paleo-ice sheet extent and predict future ice sheet contributions to sea level.
Aurora Basin, the weak underbelly of East Antarctica
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-03-2020
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU2020-2456
Abstract: & & Containing ~52 m sea level rise equivalent ice mass (SLRe), the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is a major component of the global sea level budget yet, uncertainty remains in how this ice sheet will respond to enhanced atmospheric and oceanic thermal forcing through the turn of the century. To address this uncertainty, we model the most dynamic catchments of EAIS out to 2100 using the Ice Sheet System Model. We employ three basal melt rate parameterizations to resolve ice-ocean interactions and force our model with anomalies in both surface mass balance and ocean thermal forcing from both CMIP5 and CMIP6 model output. We find that this sector of EAIS gains approximately 10 mm SLRe by 2100 under high emission scenarios (RCP8.5 and SSP585), and loses mass under low emission scenarios (RCP2.6). All basins within the domain either gain mass or are in near mass balance through the 86-year experimental period, except the Aurora Subglacial Basin. The primary region of mass loss in this basin is located within 50 km upstream of Totten Glacier& #8217 s grounding line, which loses up to 6 mm SLRe by 2100. Glacial discharge from Totten is modulated by buttress supplied by a 10 km ice plain, located along the southern-most end of Totten& #8217 s grounding line. This ice plain is sensitive to brief changes in ocean temperature and once ungrounded, glacial discharge from Totten accelerates by up to 70% of it present day configuration. In all, we present plausible bounds on the contribution of a large sector of EAIS to global sea level rise out to the end of the century and target Totten as the most vulnerable glacier in this region. In doing so, we reduce uncertainty in century-scale global sea level projections and help steer scientific focus to the most dynamic regions of EAIS.& &
Correlation confidence limits for unevenly sampled data
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2016
The temperature change shortcut: effects of mid-experiment temperature changes on the deformation of polycrystalline ice
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 10-05-2021
Abstract: Abstract. It is vital to understand the mechanical properties of flowing ice to model the dynamics of ice sheets and ice shelves and to predict their behaviour in the future. We can increase our understanding of ice physical properties by performing deformation experiments on ice in laboratories and examining its mechanical and microstructural responses. However, natural conditions in ice sheets and ice shelves extend to low temperatures (≪-10 ∘C), and high octahedral strains ( 0.08), and emulating these conditions in laboratory experiments can take an impractically long time. It is possible to accelerate an experiment by running it at a higher temperature in the early stages and then lowering the temperature to meet the target conditions once the tertiary creep stage is reached. This can reduce total experiment run-time by 1000 h however it is not known whether this could affect the final strain rate or microstructure of the ice and potentially introduce a bias into the data. We deformed polycrystalline ice s les in uniaxial compression at −2 ∘C before lowering the temperature to either −7 or −10 ∘C, and we compared the results to constant-temperature experiments. Tertiary strain rates adjusted to the change in temperature very quickly (within 3 % of the total experiment run-time), with no significant deviation from strain rates measured in constant-temperature experiments. In experiments with a smaller temperature step (−2 to −7 ∘C) there is no observable difference in the final microstructure between changing-temperature and constant-temperature experiments which could introduce a bias into experimental results. For experiments with a larger temperature step (−2 to −10 ∘C), there are quantifiable differences in the microstructure. These differences are related to different recrystallisation mechanisms active at −10 ∘C, which are not as active when the first stages of the experiment are performed at −2 ∘C. For studies in which the main aim is obtaining tertiary strain rate data, we propose that a mid-experiment temperature change is a viable method for reducing the time taken to run low-stress and low-temperature experiments in the laboratory.
Totten Glacier subglacial hydrology determined from geophysics and modeling
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2019
Reassessing conceptual models of ENSO
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2015
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00812.1
Abstract: The complex nature of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often simplified through the use of conceptual models, each of which offers a different perspective on the ocean–atmosphere feedbacks underpinning the ENSO cycle. One theory, the unified oscillator, combines a variety of conceptual frameworks in the form of a coupled system of delay differential equations. The system produces a self-sustained oscillation on interannual time scales. While the unified oscillator is assumed to provide a more complete conceptual framework of ENSO behaviors than the models it incorporates, its formulation and performance have not been systematically assessed. This paper investigates the accuracy of the unified oscillator through its ability to replicate the ENSO cycle modeled by flux-forced output from the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Ocean Model (ACCESS-OM). The anomalous sea surface temperature equation reproduces the main features of the corresponding tendency modeled by ACCESS-OM reasonably well. However, the remaining equations for the thermocline depth anomaly and zonal wind stress anomalies are unable to accurately replicate the corresponding tendencies in ACCESS-OM. Modifications to the unified oscillator, including a diagnostic form of the zonal wind stress anomaly equations, improve its ability to emulate simulated ENSO tendencies. Despite these improvements, the unified oscillator model is less adept than the delayed oscillator model it incorporates in capturing ENSO behavior in ACCESS-OM, bringing into question its usefulness as a unifying ENSO framework.
The temperature change shortcut: effects of mid-experiment temperature changes on the deformation of polycrystalline ice
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-12-2020
DOI: 10.5194/TC-2020-318
Abstract: Abstract. It is vital to understand the mechanical properties of flowing ice to model the dynamics of ice sheets and ice shelves, and to predict their behaviour in the future. We can do this by performing deformation experiments on ice in laboratories, and examining its mechanical and microstructural responses. However, natural conditions in ice sheets and ice shelves extend to low temperatures ( 0.08), and emulating these conditions in laboratory experiments can take an impractically long time. It is possible to accelerate an experiment by running it at a higher temperature in the early stages, and then lowering the temperature to meet the target conditions once the tertiary creep stage is reached. This can reduce total experiment run-time by 1000 hours, however it is not known if this could affect the final strain rate or microstructure of the ice and potentially introduce a bias into the data. We deformed polycrystalline ice s les in uniaxial compression at −2 °C before lowering the temperature to either −7 °C or −10 °C, and compared the results to constant temperature experiments. Tertiary strain rates adjusted to the change in temperature very quickly (within 3 % of the total experiment run-time), with no significant deviation from strain rates measured in constant-temperature experiments. In experiments with a smaller temperature step (−2 °C to −7 °C) there is no observable difference in the final microstructure between changing-temperature and constant-temperature experiments which could introduce a bias into experimental results. For experiments with a larger temperature step (−2 °C to −10 °C), there are quantifiable differences in the microstructure. These differences are related to different recrystallisation mechanisms active at −10 °C, which are not as active when the first stages of the experiment are performed at −2 °C. For studies in which the main aim is obtaining tertiary strain rate data, we propose that a mid-experiment temperature change is a viable method for reducing the time taken to run low stress and low temperature experiments in the laboratory.
Supplementary material to "GREB-ISM v0.3: A coupled ice sheet model for the Global Resolved Energy Balance model for global simulations on time-scales of 100 kyr"
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 26-07-2021
A high-resolution synthetic bed elevation grid of the Antarctic continent
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-07-2016
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-2016-18
Abstract: Abstract. Digital elevation models of Antarctic bed topography are heavily smoothed and interpolated onto low-resolution ( 1 km) grids as our current observed topography data are generally sparsely and unevenly s led. This issue has potential implications for numerical simulations of ice-sheet dynamics, especially in regions prone to instability where detailed knowledge of the topography, including fine-scale roughness, is required. Here, we present a high-resolution (100 m) synthetic bed elevation terrain for the whole Antarctic continent. The synthetic bed surface preserves topographic roughness characteristics of airborne and ground-based ice-penetrating radar data from the Bedmap1 compilation and the ICECAP consortium. Broad-scale features of the Antarctic landscape are incorporated using a low-pass filter of the Bedmap2 bed-elevation data. Although not intended as a substitute for Bedmap2, the simulated bed elevation terrain has applicability in high-resolution ice-sheet modelling studies, including investigations of the interaction between topography, ice-sheet dynamics, and hydrology, where processes are highly sensitive to bed elevations. The data are available for download at the Australian Antarctic Data Centre (doi:10.4225/15/57464ADE22F50).
The impact of internal variability in ocean-induced melting on Totten Glacier
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-03-2020
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU2020-4196
Abstract: & & The Totten Glacier, located in the Aurora Subglacial Basin of East Antarctica, drains a catchment containing approximately 3.5 m of global sea level rise equivalent ice mass. The This glacier has been losing mass over recent decades, and modelling studies indicate that it is the most vulnerable glacier in East Antarctica to warming oceans and atmosphere over the coming century. Satellite altimetry shows high internal variability in ocean-forced melting of the Totten Ice Shelf however, the extent to which this variability signal impacts the upstream ice sheet dynamics, and therefore its mass balance, is unknown. Here we use the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) combined with a plume and basal melting parameterisation called PICOP to investigate the impact of variability in ocean temperature on the evolution of Totten Glacier. We find that the southernmost portion of the Totten Glacier grounding line - from which the majority of the catchment& #8217 s ice is channeled - is stable within only a limited range of background ocean temperatures close to present-day values. In the stable simulations, the magnitude of the ice mass flux depends on the extent to which the ice shelf is pinned on a bed topography rumple located approximately 10 km downstream of its grounding line, but the period of the mass flux is decadal to multi-decadal in each simulation, irrespective of the magnitude of the variability in ocean forcing. We further find that the impact of variability in ocean melt rates decreases as the mean background ocean temperature increases, suggesting that the mean state may have a relatively more important role in the evolution of the Totten Glacier than variability in ocean forcing. Our results have implications for detection and attribution of climate change and internal climate variability in modeling studies, and may inform fieldwork c aigns mapping bed topography in the Aurora Subglacial Basin.& &
GREB-ISM v0.3: A coupled ice sheet model for the Global Resolved Energy Balance model for global simulations on time-scales of 100 kyr
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 26-07-2021
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-2021-204
Abstract: Abstract. We introduce a newly developed global ice sheet model coupled to the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) climate model for the simulation of global ice sheet evolution on time scales of 100 kyr or longer (GREB-ISM v0.3). Ice sheets and ice shelves are simulated on a global grid, fully interacting with the climate simulation of surface temperature, precipitation, albedo, land-sea mask, topography and sea level. Thus, it is a fully coupled atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheet model. We test the model in ice sheet stand-alone and fully coupled simulations. The ice sheet model dynamics behave similarly to other hybrid SIA (Shallow Ice Approximation) and SSA (Shallow Shelf Approximation) models, but the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulates too much ice using present-day boundary conditions. The coupled model simulations produce global equilibrium ice sheet volumes and calving rates similar to observed for present day boundary conditions. We designed a series of idealised experiments driven by oscillating solar radiation forcing on periods of 20 kyr, 50 kyr and 100 kyr in the Northern Hemisphere. These simulations show clear interactions between the climate system and ice sheets, resulting in slow build-up and fast decay of ice-covered areas and global ice volume. The results also show that Northern Hemisphere ice sheets respond more strongly to time scales longer than 100 kyr. The coupling to the atmosphere and sea level leads to climate interactions between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The model can run global simulations of 100 kyr per day on a desktop computer, allowing the simulation of the whole Quaternary period (2.6 Myrs) within one month.
Self-organising maps and surface melt on East Antarctic ice shelves
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-10430
Abstract: Surface melt occurs on most ice shelves in Antarctica each summer, with potential impacts on their strength and stability and thus on the ice sheet's contribution to global sea level rise. However, many questions remain regarding the spatiotemporal variability of surface melt and the processes driving it, particularly in East Antarctica where few in situ observations exist. Previous work in this field has largely relied on remote sensing observations to monitor the occurrence and extent of surface melt, often using metrics such as the onset and freeze-up dates of melt each summer, the number of melt days, or the cumulative melting area. Whilst such metrics are often necessary to handle the sheer volume of data produced by satellite observations, much of the information contained within the datasets is lost, hindering attempts to build a more complete picture of melt variability at different spatial and temporal scales, and thus of disentangling the different processes driving melt.To help address this problem, we use the machine learning approach of a Self-Organising Map (SOM) and nearly two decades (2002/03& #8211 /21) of daily observations from the AMSR-E and AMSR-2 passive microwave sensors, gridded at a spatial resolution of 12.5 km. Here, we present results focused on the Shackleton Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, but our code, implemented in the R programming language, is openly available and can be applied to any Antarctic ice shelf, or adapted for use with other melt datasets.Our results show that the daily distribution of surface melt on the Shackleton Ice Shelf can be described by nine representative spatial patterns of melt. These patterns demonstrate the potential for heterogeneous melt behaviour across the shelf, and thus provide insight into the influence of surface topography, katabatic winds, and surface albedo in driving surface melt. A sensitivity analysis of the SOM algorithm shows that the same general spatial patterns are returned repeatedly regardless of the parameter values used, strengthening confidence in our results and interpretation, and demonstrating the suitability of our approach. We further examine the temporal variability of the nine melt patterns, both within and across melt seasons, finding that there are no significant trends in any of the patterns. Instead, our analysis identifies a number of summers with unusual melt behaviour and also reveals correlations with shelf-wide, summer-averaged surface air temperatures, highlighting that both local and large-scale controls are important for driving surface melt in Antarctica.
Joint author response to reviewers comments, with manuscript changes
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 16-03-2017
Modelling the influence of marine ice on the dynamics of an idealised ice shelf
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 15-08-2023
DOI: 10.1017/JOG.2022.66
Abstract: Understanding the dynamic behaviour of ice shelves, specifically the controls on their ability to buttress the flow of ice into the ocean, is critical for predicting future ice-sheet contributions to sea level rise. Many large ice shelves, which are predominantly composed of meteoric ice, have a basal layer of marine ice (formed from accumulated platelets at the ice–ocean interface), comprising up to 40% of their thickness locally. Differences in temperature, chemistry and microstructure between marine and meteoric ice mean the rheological properties of the ice vary throughout the ice shelf. These differences are not explicitly accounted for in ice-sheet modelling applications, and may have an important influence on ice shelf dynamics. We tested the sensitivity of a model of an idealised ice shelf to variations in temperature distribution and flow enhancement, and found that incorporating a realistic thermal profile (where the marine ice layer is isothermal) had an order of magnitude greater effect on ice mass flux and thinning than incorporating the mechanical properties of the marine ice. The presence of marine ice at the ice shelf base has the potential to significantly increase deviatoric stresses at the surface and ice mass flux across the front of an ice shelf.
Effectiveness of the Bjerknes stability index in representing ocean dynamics
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-02-2014
Modelling Subglacial Hydrology under Future Climate Scenarios in Wilkes Subglacial Basin, Antarctica
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 26-03-2022
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU22-424
Abstract: & & The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have differing climates, which makes surface melt a significant hydrological source in Greenland but not currently in Antarctica. Due to changing climate and warming air temperatures, Antarctica is predicted to experience more surface meltwater in the future. This will likely lead to surface features common in Greenland today, such as supraglacial lakes and moulins, to also form over grounded ice in Antarctica. Moulins in particular are important because they will route this surface melt into basal drainage networks. The resulting change in subglacial drainage characteristics and water volumes will potentially have far-reaching impacts on ice dynamics, ice shelf melt, grounding line stability, and ultimately global sea level rise. To examine this, we model the hydrological system in Wilkes Subglacial Basin, East Antarctica with the future climate in mind by incorporating moulins and surface melt to try to understand the impact that this will have on ice sheet and ice shelf dynamics. We use predictive data generated by the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) for surface runoff in Antarctica for the year 2100 as inputs to the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) subglacial hydrology model. We compare the modelling results from two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Moulin locations are predicted using current strain rates along preferential surface hydrology flow pathways and we also compare modelling results with different numbers and locations of moulins. Preliminary results show that even under the lower RCP 2.6 scenario, surface water input significantly alters basal drainage rates, channel extent, and water pressure near the grounding line. The changes are focussed during the modelled summer melt season with the hydrological system settling towards its current state over winter. This demonstrates that the future state of the climate will have an impact on the subglacial hydrology of Antarctica and, in turn, on ice flow speeds and ice shelf melt rates near the grounding line.& &
Mechanism of the Double peaked El Nino
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-03-2020
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU2020-6492
Abstract: & & & & In the past decades, our understanding of the ENSO phenomenon increased steadily. Especially, one of the most interesting topics was the El Ni& #241 o type because of the different global impacts. The classic classification is the two types of the El Ni& #241 o and there are various terms to refer this. The conventional El Ni& #241 o is called the Cold tongue El Ni& #241 o or the Eastern pacific El Ni& #241 o. And the other type of the El Ni& #241 o is called the Warm pool El Ni& #241 o, the Central pacific El Ni& #241 o, the El Ni& #241 o Modoki or the dateline El Ni& #241 o. However, in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) results, those have been shown the Double peaked El Ni& #241 o events which are the new type of the El Ni& #241 o due to the climatological cold tongue bias. Double peaked El Ni& #241 o events are defined as a positive sea surface temperature anomalies are separated into two centers (in Western and Eastern Pacific) and grow in idually and simultaneously, and the peak of SST anomalies exceeds the threshold.& & & & & & Double peaked El Ni& #241 o events are found in not only the models, but also the observations. But there are no dynamical analysis of observations. In this study, the mechanism giving rise to Double peaked El Ni& #241 o in observation is examined by analyzing the mixed layer heat budget equation and comparing with the Warm Pool El Ni& #241 o and Cold tongue El Ni& #241 o.& & & & & & The warm SST anomalies of the western peak and the eastern peak are caused by different dynamic mechanism. Western peaks of Double peaked El Ni& #241 o are similar to the Warm Pool El Ni& #241 o. Those can be developed by Zonal advection feedback terms and negative anomalous wind speed, whereas eastern peaks of Double peaked El Ni& #241 o are different from Warm pool El Ni& #241 o. Thermocline feedback term considerably contribute to the occurrence of eastern peak. Differences of intensity of the precipitation(4-8N, 195-225E) derive other significant differences of the zonal wind stress(5S-5N, 170-200E), sea level(5S-5N, 230-250E) and zonal current(5S-5N, 230-250E). Thus, the process above can induce the eastern peak of the Double peaked El Ni& #241 o.& &
GREB-ISM v1.0: A coupled ice sheet model for the Globally Resolved Energy Balance model for global simulations on timescales of 100 kyr
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 10-05-2022
Abstract: Abstract. We introduce a newly developed global ice sheet model coupled to the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) climate model for the simulation of global ice sheet evolution on timescales of 100 kyr or longer (GREB-ISM v1.0). Ice sheets and ice shelves are simulated on a global grid, fully interacting with the climate simulation of surface temperature, precipitation, albedo, land–sea mask, topography and sea level. Thus, it is a fully coupled atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheet model. We test the model in ice sheet stand-alone and fully coupled simulations. The ice sheet model dynamics behave similarly to other hybrid SIA (shallow ice approximation) and SSA (shallow shelf approximation) models, but the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulates too much ice using present-day boundary conditions. The coupled model simulations produce global equilibrium ice sheet volumes and calving rates like those observed for present-day boundary conditions. We designed a series of idealized experiments driven by oscillating solar radiation forcing on periods of 20, 50 and 100 kyr in the Northern Hemisphere. These simulations show clear interactions between the climate system and ice sheets, resulting in slow buildup and fast decay of ice-covered areas and global ice volume. The results also show that Northern Hemisphere ice sheets respond more strongly to timescales longer than 100 kyr. The coupling to the atmosphere and sea level leads to climate interactions between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The model can run global simulations of 100 kyr d−1 on a desktop computer, allowing the simulation of the whole Quaternary period (2.6 Myr) within 1 month.
Quantifying the Nonconservative Production of Conservative Temperature, Potential Temperature, and Entropy
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 05-2012
Abstract: The evolution equation of potential temperature has to date been treated as an approximation to the oceanic version of the first law of thermodynamics. That is, oceanographers have regarded the advection and diffusion of potential temperature as the advection and diffusion of “heat.” However, the nonconservative source terms that arise in the evolution equation for potential temperature are estimated to be two orders of magnitude larger than the corresponding source terms for Conservative Temperature. In this paper the nonconservative source terms of potential temperature, Conservative Temperature, and entropy are derived for a stratified turbulent fluid, then quantified using the output of a coarse-resolution ocean model and compared to the rate of dissipation of mechanical energy, epsilon. It is shown that the error incurred in ocean models by assuming that Conservative Temperature is 100% conservative is approximately 120 times smaller than the corresponding error for potential temperature and at least 1200 times smaller than the corresponding error for entropy. Furthermore, the error in assuming that Conservative Temperature is 100% conservative is approximately 6 times smaller than the error in ignoring epsilon. Hence Conservative Temperature can be quite accurately regarded as a conservative variable and can be treated as being proportional to the “heat content” per unit mass of seawater, and therefore it should now be used in place of potential temperature in physical oceanography, including as the prognostic temperature variable in ocean models.
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Related Funding Activities
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE210101433
Start Date: 12-2021
End Date: 12-2024
Amount: $429,043.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivitySpecial Research Initiatives - Grant ID: SR200100005
Start Date: 06-2021
End Date: 06-2030
Amount: $36,000,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded Activity