ORCID Profile
0000-0003-4423-5410
Current Organisation
University of Southampton
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Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 04-01-2010
DOI: 10.1111/J.1467-985X.2009.00630.X
Abstract: Information about internal migration in England may come from decennial censuses, surveys or population (health) registers. We propose a methodology that allows us to combine aspects from multiple sources of data to provide a time series of detailed migration flows. By detailed, we refer to a migration flow table cross-classified by origin, destination, age, sex and economic activity (e.g. employees, retirees or students). Our results can be used to analyse the movements of various population groups between counties in England over time.
Publisher: Duke University Press
Date: 12-05-2015
DOI: 10.1007/S13524-015-0389-Y
Abstract: In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time series data for the United Kingdom and forecast the components of population change to the year 2024. We also compare the results obtained from different forecast models for age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration. In doing so, we demonstrate the flexibility and advantages of adopting the Bayesian approach for population forecasting and highlight areas where this work could be extended.
Publisher: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Date: 10-12-2013
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 05-07-2013
DOI: 10.1017/S0021932013000333
Abstract: HIV prevalence in China is less than one per cent, but the absolute number of people living with HIV/AIDS is large and growing. Given the limited scope of any potential cure for HIV, prevention plays a crucial role in controlling the epidemic. This paper examines the evolution of HIV awareness among women in China between 1997 and 2005. A regression decomposition analysis technique was used to disentangle the two main components driving a change in HIV awareness. The results show that HIV awareness has increased over time in China. The gaps between groups are narrowing over time and lower HIV awareness groups are catching up with the higher awareness groups. In 2005 education remained one of the main factors associated with HIV awareness, the other main factors being ethnicity, exposure to TV and newspapers. The increases in HIV awareness observed between 1997 and 2001 are similar between groups of women with different demographic characteristics, whereas between 2003 and 2005 increases are more pronounced among specific groups of women such as women from rural areas, women from Western parts of the country, women who belong to ethnic minorities and those with no education or with only primary education. The results suggest that the main driver of the observed change in HIV awareness over time in China is change in the environment such as in political commitment, interventions and c aigns rather than change in population structure.
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH
Date: 12-2013
Abstract: In this article, we first discuss the need to augment reported flows of international migration in Europe with additional knowledge gained from experts on measurement, quality and coverage. Second, we present our method for eliciting this information. Third, we describe how this information is converted into prior distributions for subsequent use in a Bayesian model for estimating migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The article concludes with an assessment of the importance of expert information and a discussion of lessons learned from the elicitation process.
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 22-01-2016
DOI: 10.1111/RSSA.12177
Abstract: Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin–destination flows, resulting in a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 09-2013
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 14-08-2007
DOI: 10.1111/J.1467-985X.2007.00490.X
Abstract: A log-linear model is developed to estimate detailed elderly migration flows by combining data from the 2001 UK census and National Health Services patient register. After showing that the census and National Health Service migration flows can be reasonably combined, elderly migration flows between groupings of local authority districts by age, sex and health status for the 2000–2001 and 2003–2004 periods are estimated and then analysed to show how the patterns have changed. By combining registration data with census data, we can provide recent estimates of detailed elderly migration flows, which can be used for improvements in social planning or policy.
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 11-07-2013
DOI: 10.1111/RSSC.12020
Abstract: Longitudinal data from labour force surveys permit the investigation of income dynamics at the in idual level. However, the data often originate from surveys with a complex multistage s ling scheme. In addition, the hierarchical structure of the data that is imposed by the different stages of the s ling scheme often represents the natural grouping in the population. Motivated by how income dynamics differ between the formal and informal sectors of the Brazilian economy and the data structure of the Brazilian Labour Force Survey, we extend the probability-weighted iterative generalized least squares estimation method. Our method is used to fit multivariate multilevel models to the Brazilian Labour Force Survey data where the covariance structure between occasions at the in idual level is modelled. We conclude that there are significant income differentials and that incorporating the weights in the parameter estimation has some effect on the estimated coefficients and standard errors.
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH
Date: 09-2021
Abstract: Estimation of the unknown population size using capture-recapture techniques relies on the key assumption that the capture probabilities are homogeneous across in iduals in the population. This is usually accomplished via post-stratification by some key covariates believed to influence in idual catchability. Another issue that arises in population estimation from data collected from multiple sources is list dependence, where an in idual’s catchability on one list is related to that of another list. The earlier models for population estimation heavily relied upon list independence. However, there are methods available that can adjust the population estimates to account for dependence among lists. In this article, we propose the use of latent class analysis through log-linear modelling to estimate the population size in the presence of both heterogeneity and list dependence. The proposed approach is illustrated using data from the 1988 US census dress rehearsal.
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 24-09-2004
DOI: 10.1111/J.1467-985X.2004.00602.X
Abstract: We compare two different multilevel modelling approaches to the analysis of repeated measures data to assess the effect of mother level characteristics on women’s use of prenatal care services in Uttar Pradesh, India. We apply univariate multilevel models to our data and find that the model assumptions are severely violated and the parameter estimates are not stable, particularly for the mother level random effect. To overcome this we apply a multivariate multilevel model. The correlation structure shows that, once the decision has been made regarding use of antenatal care by the mother for her first observed birth in the data, she does not tend to change this decision for higher order births.
Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Date: 06-2015
DOI: 10.1111/ECC.12330
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-12-2011
DOI: 10.1002/PSP.565
Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Date: 09-2014
Publisher: National Institute for Health and Care Research
Date: 10-2014
DOI: 10.3310/EME01020
Abstract: The Alexander technique probably helps back pain but it is unclear whether or not it can be combined with physiotherapy exercise classes, how many lessons are needed and what mechanisms might be involved. To undertake a feasibility trial of the Alexander technique and supervised exercise classes and perform exploratory biomechanical and neuromuscular physiological marker analyses to better understand mediators of recovery. Feasibility parallel-group randomised controlled trial. General practices in southern England. Patients with recurrent back pain (at least 3 weeks’ duration of a current episode). Participants were allocated by an external randomisation line to four groups: (1) normal care, (2) 10 Alexander technique lessons, (3) 12 physiotherapy exercise classes, (4) Alexander technique lessons plus exercise classes. The feasibility outcomes were recruitment, acceptability and follow-up. The clinical outcomes were the Roland–Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ), days in pain, the Von Korff pain and disability scale, overall improvement, fear of activity, enablement, the Oswestry Disability Index and the Aberdeen pain and function scale. Laboratory-based markers were axial muscle tone and flexibility, electrical activity, muscle tone and mechanical properties of elasticity and stiffness, trunk strength, and proprioception. In total, 83 patients consented, 69 were randomised and 56 (81%) were followed up at 6 months. Most patients had long-standing pain (median 300 days of pain). The RMDQ and other instruments were sensitive to change and the preliminary evidence suggests that the Aberdeen scale could be a useful measure. Study procedures were feasible and three methods of recruitment were successfully piloted. At 6 months the control group had changed little (RMDQ 1 point lower than at baseline) and, compared with the control group, clinically important improvements in RMDQ were seen in all groups, albeit not significant [Alexander technique −3.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) −6.7 to 0.8] exercise classes −2.9, 95% CI −6.5 to 0.8 combined Alexander technique + exercise classes −2.50, 9% CI −6.20 to 1.19]. Novel biomechanical variables strongly associated with RMDQ score at 6 months were muscle tone (0.94 increase in RMDQ per unit increase in Hz, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.40 p 0.0001), lumbar proprioception (1.48 increase in RMDQ per degree, 95% CI 0.83 to 2.12 p 0.0001) and muscle elasticity (−4.86 increase in RMDQ per unit log decrement, 95% CI −0.01 to −9.72 p 0.05). At 3 months the Alexander technique improved proprioception and exercise classes improved trunk extension strength. At 6 months the Alexander technique improved the timing of multifidus muscle onset and the active straight leg raise test and exercise classes improved multifidus muscle thickness and the ability to contract. The combined effects of the Alexander technique and exercise classes were improvements in muscle tone, elasticity and thickness and contractile ability. These observations provide possible links between intervention, proprioception, muscle tone and elasticity and outcome. In terms of harms, one patient fell in the exercise class group. The trial is feasible and the interventions may provide clinically important benefits. Exploratory analysis suggests that muscle tone, elasticity and proprioception are strongly associated with improved RMDQ score and are likely to be modified by the interventions. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN51496752. This project was funded by the Medical Research Council through the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation Board.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Start Date: 2008
End Date: 2009
Funder: Economic and Social Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2014
End Date: 2018
Funder: Economic and Social Research Council
View Funded Activity