ORCID Profile
0000-0002-6376-2585
Current Organisations
IT University of Copenhagen
,
University of Adelaide
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Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-11-2017
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 28-08-2020
Abstract: The late Quaternary paleorecord, within the past ∼130,000 years, can help to inform present-day management of the Earth's ecosystems and biota under climate change. Fordham et al. review when and where rapid climate transitions can be found in the paleoclimate record. They show how such events in Earth's history can shape our understanding of the consequences of future global warming, including rates of bio ersity loss, changes in ecosystem structure and function, and degradation in the goods and services that these ecosystems provide to humanity. They also highlight how recent developments at the intersection of paleoecology, paleoclimatology, and macroecology can provide opportunities to anticipate and manage the responses of species and ecosystems to changing climates in the Anthropocene. Science , this issue p. eabc5654
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2022
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 05-08-2022
Abstract: With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely to reveal the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of bio ersity. Most research questions focused on the distribution of ersity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers and biological constraints operate at large spatiotemporal scales. However, we can encode proposed mechanisms into models, observe the patterns they produce in virtual environments, and validate these patterns against real-world data or theoretical expectations. This approach can advance understanding of generalizable mechanisms responsible for the distributions of organisms, communities, and ecosystems in space and time, advancing basic and applied science. We review recent developments in process-explicit models and how they have improved knowledge of the distribution and dynamics of life on Earth, enabling bio ersity to be better understood and managed through a deeper recognition of the processes that shape genetic, species, and ecosystem ersity.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 19-10-2022
DOI: 10.1111/GEB.13601
Abstract: To determine the ecological processes and drivers of range collapse, population decline and eventual extinction of the steppe bison in Eurasia. Siberia. Pleistocene and Holocene. Steppe bison ( Bison priscus ). We configured 110,000 spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) of climate–human–steppe bison interactions in Siberia, which we ran at generational time steps from 50,000 years before present. We used pattern‐oriented modelling (POM) and fossil‐based inferences of distribution and demographic change of steppe bison to identify which SEPMs adequately simulated important interactions between ecological processes and biological threats. These “best models” were then used to disentangle the mechanisms that were integral in the population decline and later extinction of the steppe bison in its last stronghold in Eurasia. Our continuous reconstructions of the range and extinction dynamics of steppe bison were able to reconcile inferences of spatio‐temporal occurrence and the timing and location of extinction in Siberia based on hundreds of radiocarbon‐dated steppe bison fossils. We showed that simulating the ecological pathway to extinction for steppe bison in Siberia in the early Holocene required very specific ecological niche constraints, demographic processes and a constrained synergy of climate and human hunting dynamics during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition. Ecological processes and drivers that caused ancient population declines of species can be reconstructed at high spatio‐temporal resolutions using SEPMs and POM. Using this approach, we found that climatic change and hunting by humans are likely to have interacted with key ecological processes to cause the extinction of the steppe bison in its last refuge in Eurasia.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-11-2019
DOI: 10.1111/OIK.06438
Abstract: Population dynamics are typically temporally autocorrelated: population sizes are positively or negatively correlated with past population sizes. Previous studies have found that positive temporal autocorrelation increases the risk of extinction due to ‘inertia’ that prolongs downward fluctuations in population size. However, temporal autocorrelation has not yet been analyzed at the level of life cycle transitions. We developed an R package, colorednoise, which creates stochastic matrix population projections with distinct temporal autocorrelation values for each matrix element. We used it to analyze long‐term demographic data on 25 populations from the COMADRE and COMPADRE databases and simulate their stochastic dynamics. We found a broad range of temporal autocorrelation across species, populations and life cycle stages. The number of stage‐classes in the matrix strongly affected the temporal autocorrelation of the growth rate. In the plant populations, reproduction transitions had more negative temporal autocorrelation than survival transitions, and matrices dominated by positive temporal autocorrelation had higher extinction risk, while in animal populations transition type was not associated with noise color. Our results indicate that temporal autocorrelation varies across life cycle transitions, even among populations of the same species. We present the colorednoise package for researchers to analyze the temporal autocorrelation of structured demographic rates.
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 18-02-2021
DOI: 10.1101/2021.02.17.431706
Abstract: Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last in idual. However, causes of early-stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-11-2021
DOI: 10.1111/ELE.13911
Abstract: Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last in idual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process‐explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process‐explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate‐driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid‐Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range‐wide extinction.
Publisher: figshare
Date: 2022
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 03-05-2016
Abstract: In most songbirds, both sexes produce calls, or short vocalizations used to coordinate behaviors and maintain social cohesion. In contrast, songs are longer, more elaborate vocalizations typically only produced by males in behavioral contexts shaped by sexual selection operating through female choice. However, both males and females sing in many cooperatively breeding species, including the superb starling ( L rotornis superbus ). In this species, both sexes produce songs and calls composed of sequences of temporally discrete elements called motifs. Calls signal social group and in idual identity, but the function of songs is currently unknown. Because superb starlings often sing in groups, song could be used not only in a sexual context, but also to signal identity and rank within the separate dominance hierarchies observed in males and females. To determine whether songs are used in mate attraction (sexually selected) and/or to influence social rank (socially selected), we compared song ersity with three potential indicators of fitness and dominance: social status, the number of seasons spent breeding, and age. We found that age is correlated with song ersity in both males and females, suggesting that (1) these signals serve similar purposes in both sexes, and (2) song ersity is likely the result of selection by both mutual mate choice and social competition. To test whether songs carry a signal of in iduality, we applied spectrogram dynamic time warping to measure pairwise similarity among song motifs, and then calculated motif similarity within and between in iduals. We found that motif similarity is higher within in iduals than between in iduals, suggesting that songs signal in idual identity, which may help to establish social rank. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that superb starling vocal behavior in each sex is shaped by both social and sexual selection. Additionally, because call motifs are also used in songs, our data suggest that at least some vocal building blocks have evolved to convey multiple signaler traits and to facilitate complex social and sexual interactions in different contexts.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2013
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-03-2014
No related grants have been discovered for July Pilowsky.