ORCID Profile
0000-0002-0310-8995
Current Organisations
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
,
CSIRO
,
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
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Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016JC011842
Abstract: Ocean boundary currents, transporting water masses and marine biota along the coastlines, are important for regional climate and marine ecosystem functions. In this study, we review the dominant multi‐decadal trends of ocean boundary currents around Australia. Using an eddy‐resolving global ocean circulation model, this study has revealed that the major ocean boundary current systems around Australia, the East Australian Current (EAC), the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), the Leeuwin Current, the South Australian Current and the Flinders Current, have strengthened during 1979–2014, consistent with existing observations. Eddy energetics in the EAC, the ITF/South Equatorial Current in the southeast Indian Ocean, and the Leeuwin Current have also enhanced during the same period. The multi‐decadal strengthening of the ocean boundary current systems are primarily driven by large scale wind patterns associated with the dominant modes of climate variability and change – the phase shift of the Inter‐decadal Pacific Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Oscillation strengthens the ITF and the Leeuwin Current/South Australian Current and the poleward shift and strengthening of surface winds in the subtropical gyres reinforce the EAC and the Flinders Current. The invigorating ocean boundary current systems have induced extreme oceanographic conditions along the Australian coastlines in recent years, including the poleward shift of marine ecosystems off the east coast of Australia and the consecutive Ningaloo Niño – marine heatwave events off the west coast during 2011–2013. Understanding long‐term trends and decadal variations of the ocean boundary currents is crucial to project future changes of the coastal marine systems under the influence of human‐induced greenhouse gas forcing.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-01-2018
DOI: 10.1002/2017JD027222
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-12-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-022-35493-X
Abstract: Marine heatwaves can have disastrous impacts on ecosystems and marine industries. Given their potential consequences, it is important to understand how broad-scale climate variability influences the probability of localised extreme events. Here, we employ an advanced data-mining methodology, archetype analysis, to identify large scale patterns and teleconnections that lead to marine extremes in certain regions. This methodology is applied to the Australasian region, where it identifies instances of anomalous sea-surface temperatures, frequently associated with marine heatwaves, as well as the broadscale oceanic and atmospheric conditions associated with those extreme events. Additionally, we use archetype analysis to assess the ability of a low-resolution climate model to accurately represent the teleconnection patterns associated with extreme climate variability, and discuss the implications for the predictability of these impactful events.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-02-2016
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-2016-17
Abstract: Abstract. Eddy-resolving global ocean models are highly desired for spatially-improved climate studies, but this is challenging because they require careful configuration and substantial computational resources. Model drift, partially related to insufficient model spin-up, imperfect model physics or bias in surface forcing, can be problematic, leading to contamination of climate change signals. In this study, we adapt a near-global eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model, originally developed for short-range ocean forecasting, for climate studies. The Ocean Forecasting Australia Model version 3 (OFAM3) is spun up for 20 years, with repeated year 1979 forcing and adaptive relaxation (Newtonian nudging) of temperature and salinity in the deep ocean to an observation-based climatology. In addition, surface heat fluxes from the JRA-55 atmospheric reanalysis are adjusted during the spin-up experiment to minimise excessive net heat uptake in the ocean. In the historical experiment, spanning 1979–2014, a non-adaptive relaxation is applied by repeating the same relaxation rates derived from the last five years of the spin-up experiment, and the surface heat flux adjustment diagnosed during the spinup experiment is also maintained. We demonstrate that the historical experiment driven by the JRA-55 reanalysis does not have significant drifts (e.g., as shown by simulated global ocean heat content), and also provides an eddy-resolving simulation of the global ocean circulation over the period 1979–2014. Decadal changes, such as the strengthening of the subtropical gyre circulation, are also reasonably simulated. A biogeochemical model is coupled with OFAM3 to produce patterns of primary productivity and carbon fluxes that are consistent with observations. Experiences gained from our numerical experiments will be helpful to other modelling groups who are interested in running global eddy-resolving OGCMs for climate studies.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-2015
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-02-2015
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2513
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-1998
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-06-2017
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3325
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 20-07-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2310
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 15-06-2022
DOI: 10.3390/CLI10060083
Abstract: With increased interest in climate forecasts and projections, it is important to understand more about their sources and levels of skill. A starting point here is to describe the nature of the skill associated with forecasts and projections. Climate forecasts and projections typically both include time varying forcing of the climate, but only forecasts have initial conditions set close to the observed climate state. Climate forecasts therefore derive skill from both initial conditions and from forcing. The character of the initial condition skill and forcing skill is different. Skill from initial conditions results in a narrowing of expectations relative to a climatological distribution and points toward a more favoured part of the distribution. Forcing skill could result from a shift in the preferred parts of the climatological distribution in response to forcing, or it could result from a shift in the entire distribution, or both. Assessments of forcing skill require time averages of the target variable that are long enough so that the contributions from internal variations are small compared to the forced response. The assessment of skill of climate forecasts and projections is inherently partial because of the small number of repeated trials possible on typical climate time scales but is nonetheless the only direct measure of their performance.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-02-2020
Abstract: We assess the representation of multiday temperature and rainfall extremes in southeast Australia in three coupled general circulation models (GCMs) of varying resolution. We evaluate the statistics of the modeled extremes in terms of their frequency, duration, and magnitude compared to observations, and the model representation of the midtropospheric circulation (synoptic and large scale) associated with the extremes. We find that the models capture the statistics of observed heatwaves reasonably well, though some models are “too wet” to adequately capture the observed duration of dry spells but not always wet enough to capture the magnitude of extreme wet events. Despite the inability of the models to simulate all extreme event statistics, the process evaluation indicates that the onset and decay of the observed synoptic structures are well simulated in the models, including for wet and dry extremes. We also show that the large-scale wave train structures associated with the observed extremes are reasonably well simulated by the models although their broader onset and decay is not always captured in the models. The results presented here provide some context for, and confidence in, the use of the coupled GCMs in climate prediction and projection studies for regional extremes.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2017
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-1997
DOI: 10.1029/97JA01944
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 19-11-2018
Abstract: We assess the large-scale atmospheric dynamics influencing rainfall extremes in Tasmania, located within the Southern Hemisphere storm track. We characterize wet and dry multiday rainfall extremes in western and eastern Tasmania, two distinct climate regimes, and construct atmospheric flow composites around these extreme events. We consider the onset and decay of the events and find a link between Rossby wave trains propagating in the polar jet waveguide and wet and dry extremes across Tasmania. Of note is that the wave trains exhibit varying behavior during the different extremes. In the onset phase of rainfall extremes in western Tasmania, there is a coherent wave train in the Indian Ocean, which becomes circumglobal in extent and quasi-stationary as the event establishes and persists. Wet and dry extremes in this region are influenced by opposite phases of this circumglobal wave train pattern. In eastern Tasmania, wet extremes relate to a propagating wave train, which is first established in the Indian Ocean sector and propagates eastward to the Pacific Ocean sector as the event progresses. During dry extremes in eastern Tasmania, the wave train is first established in the Pacific Ocean, as opposed to Indian Ocean, and persists in this sector for the entire event, with a structure indicative of the Pacific–South American pattern. The findings regarding different wave train forms and their relationship to rainfall extremes have implications for extreme event attribution in other regions around the globe.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2001
Publisher: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology
Date: 2015
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2021
Abstract: Subseasonal forecast skill is not homogeneous in time, and prior assessment of the likely forecast skill would be valuable for end-users. We propose a method for identifying periods of high forecast confidence using atmospheric circulation patterns, with an application to southern Australia precipitation. In particular, we use archetypal analysis to derive six patterns, called archetypes, of daily 500-hPa geopotential height ( Z 500 ) fields over Australia. We assign Z 500 reanalysis fields to the closest-matching archetype and subsequently link the archetypes to precipitation for three key regions in the Australian agriculture and energy sectors: the Murray Basin, southwest Western Australia, and western Tasmania. Using a 20-yr hindcast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction system, we identify periods of high confidence as when hindcast Z 500 fields closely match an archetype according to a distance criterion. We compare the precipitation hindcast accuracy during these confident periods compared to normal. Considering all archetypes, we show that there is greater skill during confident periods for lead times of less than 10 days in the Murray Basin and western Tasmania, and for greater than 6 days in southwest Western Australia, although these conclusions are subject to substantial uncertainty. By breaking down the skill results for each archetype in idually, we highlight how skill tends to be greater than normal for those archetypes associated with drier-than-average conditions.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2001
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 11-1987
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 2020
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 16-10-2013
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00521.1
Abstract: Climate models often exhibit spurious long-term changes independent of either internal variability or changes to external forcing. Such changes, referred to as model “drift,” may distort the estimate of forced change in transient climate simulations. The importance of drift is examined in comparison to historical trends over recent decades in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Comparison based on a selection of metrics suggests a significant overall reduction in the magnitude of drift from phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3) to phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). The direction of both ocean and atmospheric drift is systematically biased in some models introducing statistically significant drift in globally averaged metrics. Nevertheless, for most models globally averaged drift remains weak compared to the associated forced trends and is often smaller than the difference between trends derived from different ensemble members or the error introduced by the aliasing of natural variability. An exception to this is metrics that include the deep ocean (e.g., steric sea level) where drift can dominate in forced simulations. In such circumstances drift must be corrected for using information from concurrent control experiments. Many CMIP5 models now include ocean biogeochemistry. Like physical models, biogeochemical models generally undergo long spinup integrations to minimize drift. Nevertheless, based on a limited subset of models, it is found that drift is an important consideration and must be accounted for. For properties or regions where drift is important, the drift correction method must be carefully considered. The use of a drift estimate based on the full control time series is recommended to minimize the contamination of the drift estimate by internal variability.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-08-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-018-05618-2
Abstract: Over the period 2003–2008, the Totten Ice Shelf (TIS) was shown to be rapidly thinning, likely due to basal melting. However, a recent study using a longer time series found high interannual variability present in TIS surface elevation without any apparent trend. Here we show that low-frequency intrinsic ocean variability potentially accounts for a large fraction of the variability in the basal melting of TIS. Specifically, numerical ocean model simulations show that up to 44% of the modelled variability in basal melting in the 1–5 year timescale (and up to 21% in the 5–10 year timescale) is intrinsic, with a similar response to the full climate forcing. We identify the important role of intrinsic ocean variability in setting the observed interannual variation in TIS surface thickness and velocity. Our results further demonstrate the need to account for intrinsic ocean processes in the detection and attribution of change.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 16-08-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074176
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 08-09-2015
Abstract: Abstract. A critical question in the global warming debate concerns the causes of the observed trends of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation over recent decades. Secular trends have been identified in the frequency of occurrence of circulation regimes, namely the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the hemispheric wave-3 pattern which is associated with blocking. Previous studies into the causes of these secular trends have either been purely model based, have not included observational forcing data or have mixed external forcing with indices of internal climate variability impeding a systematic and unbiased attribution of the causes of the secular trends. Most model studies also focused mainly on the austral summer season. However, the changes to the storm tracks have occurred in all seasons and particularly in the austral winter and early spring when midlatitude blocking is most active and stratospheric ozone should not play a role. Here we systematically attribute the secular trends over the recent decades using a non-stationary clustering method applied to both reanalysis and observational forcing data from all seasons. While most previous studies emphasized the importance of stratospheric ozone depletion in causing austral summer SH circulation trends, we show observational evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations have been the major driver of these secular trends in the SAM and blocking when all seasons are considered. Our results suggest that the recovery of the ozone hole might delay the signal of global warming less strongly than previously thought and that effects from all seasons are likely crucial in understanding the causes of the secular trends.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 22-10-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL089296
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-01-2022
Abstract: The Earth system is accumulating energy due to human-induced activities. More than 90% of this energy has been stored in the ocean as heat since 1970, with ∼60% of that in the upper 700 m. Differences in upper-ocean heat content anomaly (OHCA) estimates, however, exist. Here, we use a dataset protocol for 1970–2008—with six instrumental bias adjustments applied to expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data, and mapped by six research groups—to evaluate the spatiotemporal spread in upper OHCA estimates arising from two choices: 1) those arising from instrumental bias adjustments and 2) those arising from mathematical (i.e., mapping) techniques to interpolate and extrapolate data in space and time. We also examined the effect of a common ocean mask, which reveals that exclusion of shallow seas can reduce global OHCA estimates up to 13%. Spread due to mapping method is largest in the Indian Ocean and in the eddy-rich and frontal regions of all basins. Spread due to XBT bias adjustment is largest in the Pacific Ocean within 30°N–30°S. In both mapping and XBT cases, spread is higher for 1990–2004. Statistically different trends among mapping methods are found not only in the poorly observed Southern Ocean but also in the well-observed northwest Atlantic. Our results cannot determine the best mapping or bias adjustment schemes, but they identify where important sensitivities exist, and thus where further understanding will help to refine OHCA estimates. These results highlight the need for further coordinated OHCA studies to evaluate the performance of existing mapping methods along with comprehensive assessment of uncertainty estimates.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 15-08-2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2002
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 22-02-2016
Abstract: Climate model simulations of changes to Earth’s energy budget are fundamental to improve understanding of both historical and future climate change. However, coupled models are prone to “drift” (i.e., they contain spurious unforced trends in state variables) due to incomplete spinup or nonclosure of the energy budget. This work assesses the globally integrated energy budgets of 25 models in phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). It is shown that for many of the models there is a significant disagreement between ocean heat content changes and net top-of-atmosphere radiation. The disagreement is largely time-constant and independent of forcing scenario. Furthermore, most of the nonconservation seems to occur as a result of energy leaks external to the ocean model realm. After drift correction, the time-varying energy budget is consistent at decadal time scales, and model responses to climate forcing are not sensitive to the magnitude of their drift. This demonstrates that, although drift terms can be significant, model output can be corrected post hoc without biasing results.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-01-2019
Publisher: Portico
Date: 2017
Abstract: Using reanalysed atmospheric data and applying a data-driven multiscale approximation to non-stationary dynamical processes, we undertake a systematic examination of the role of memory and dimensionality in defining the quasi-stationary states of the troposphere over the recent decades. We focus on the role of teleconnections characterised by either zonally-oriented wave trains or meridional dipolar structures. We consider the impact of various strategies for dimension reduction based on principal component analysis, diagonalization and truncation.We include the impact of memory by consideration of Bernoulli, Markovian and non-Markovian processes. We a priori explicitly separate barotropic and baroclinic processes and then implement a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to the number and type of retained modes. Our results show the importance of explicitly mitigating the deleterious impacts of signal degradation through ill-conditioning and under s ling in preference to simple strategies based on thresholds in terms of explained variance. In both hemispheres, the results obtained for the dominant tropospheric modes depend critically on the extent to which the higher order modes are retained, the number of free model parameters to be fitted, and whether memory effects are taken into account. Our study identifies the primary role of the circumglobal teleconnection pattern in both hemispheres for Bernoulli and Markov processes, and the transient nature and zonal structure of the Southern Hemisphere patterns in relation to their Northern Hemisphere counterparts. For both hemispheres, overfitted models yield structures consistent with the major teleconnection modes (NAO, PNA and SAM), which give way to zonally oriented wavetrains when either memory effects are ignored or where the dimension is reduced via diagonalising. Where baroclinic processes are emphasised, circumpolar wavetrains are manifest.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 03-2013
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 12-2005
DOI: 10.1029/2005GL024429
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2004
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: 2013
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2004
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2019
Abstract: We develop and compare variants of coupled data assimilation (DA) systems based on ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) and ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) methods. The assimilation system is first tested on a small paradigm model of the coupled tropical–extratropical climate system, then implemented for a coupled general circulation model (GCM). Strongly coupled DA was employed specifically to assess the impact of assimilating ocean observations [sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), and sea surface salinity (SSS), Argo, XBT, CTD, moorings] on the atmospheric state analysis update via the cross-domain error covariances from the coupled-model background ensemble. We examine the relationship between ensemble spread, analysis increments, and forecast skill in multiyear ENSO prediction experiments with a particular focus on the atmospheric response to tropical ocean perturbations. Initial forecast perturbations generated from bred vectors (BVs) project onto disturbances at and below the thermocline with similar structures to ETKF perturbations. BV error growth leads ENSO SST phasing by 6 months whereupon the dominant mechanism communicating tropical ocean variability to the extratropical atmosphere is via tropical convection modulating the Hadley circulation. We find that bred vectors specific to tropical Pacific thermocline variability were the most effective choices for ensemble initialization and ENSO forecasting.
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 22-03-2023
DOI: 10.1071/ES22034
Abstract: In eastern Australia we expect to experience wet conditions during La Niña and dry during El Niño events. We explore how well these expectations match historical outcomes by assessing, for spring, how much rain fell during past La Niña and El Niño events. We use a tercile framing and find that for rainfall averaged across eastern Australia, La Niña approximately doubles the chance of spring rainfall being in the wet tercile whereas El Niño approximately doubles the chance of a dry spring. Also of note is that during La Niña, the dry tercile is mostly vacant and during El Niño, the wet tercile is mostly vacant, indicating that one should not expect dry conditions in La Niña or wet in El Niño for eastern Australia as a whole. At in idual locations across Australia, the results vary, and in some cases, including the eastern seaboard, La Niña or El Niño events do not change the odds of wet and dry springs significantly beyond chance expectations. For ex le, in the Sydney region, the normal chance of experiencing a wet tercile spring is 33% and this increases only slightly in a La Niña to 38%, suggesting that La Niña is not a strong indicator for wet conditions in this region. These outcomes may help to manage our expectations for the likely rainfall outcomes during future El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 02-06-2023
Abstract: The record-shattering hot day in the Pacific Northwest in June 2021 is used to motivate a study of record-shattering temperature extremes in a very large hindcast ensemble. The hottest days in the Pacific Northwest in the large ensemble have similar large scale and synoptic patterns to those associated with the observed event. From the perspective of a fixed location, the hottest ensemble days are acutely sensitive to the chance sequencing of a dry period with a precisely positioned weather pattern. These days are thus rare and require very large s les (tens of thousands of years) to capture. The enduring nature of record-shattering heat records can be understood through this lens of weather ‘noise’ and s ling. When a record-shattering event occurs due to chance alignment of weather systems in the optimal configuration, any small s le of years subsequent to the (very unlikely) record event has an extremely low chance of finding yet another chance extreme. While warming of the baseline climate can narrow the gap between more regular extremes and record-shattering extremes, this can take many decades depending on the pace of climate change. Climate models are unlikely to capture record-shattering extremes at fixed locations given by observations unless the model s les are large enough to provide enough weather outcomes to include the optimal weather alignments. This underscores the need to account for s ling in assessing models and changes in weather-sensitive extremes. In particular, climate models are not necessarily deficient in representing extremes if that assessment is based on their absence in undersize s les.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 1995
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 2017
Abstract: The authors undertake a multiscale spectral reexamination of the variability of the Pacific–South American (PSA) pattern and the mechanisms by which this variability occurs. Time scales from synoptic to interannual are investigated, focusing on the means by which tropical variability is communicated to the midlatitudes and on in situ forcing within the midlatitude waveguides. Particular interest is paid to what fraction of the total variability associated with the PSA, occurring on interannual time scales, is attributable to tropical forcing relative to that occurring on synoptic and intraseasonal time scales via internal waveguide dynamics. In general, it is found that the eastward-propagating wave train pattern typically associated with the PSA manifests across time scales from synoptic to interannual, with the majority of the variability occurring on synoptic-to-intraseasonal time scales largely independent of tropical convection. It is found that the small fraction of the total variance with a tropical signal occurs via the zonal component of the thermal wind modulating both the subtropical and polar jets. The respective roles of the Hadley circulation and stationary Rossby wave sources are also examined. Further, a PSA-like mode is identified in terms of the slow components of higher-order modes of tropospheric geopotential height. This study reestablishes the multiscale nonlinear nature of the PSA modes arising largely as a manifestation of internal midlatitude waveguide dynamics and local disturbances.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2022
Abstract: The ability to find and recognize patterns in high-dimensional geophysical data is fundamental to climate science and critical for meaningful interpretation of weather and climate processes. Archetypal analysis (AA) is one technique that has recently gained traction in the geophysical science community for its ability to find patterns based on extreme conditions. While traditional empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis can reveal patterns based on data covariance, AA seeks patterns from the points located at the edges of the data distribution. The utility of any objective pattern method depends on the properties of the data to which it is applied and the choices made in implementing the method. Given the relative novelty of the application of AA in geophysics it is important to develop experience in applying the method. We provide an assessment of the method, implementation, sensitivity, and interpretation of AA with respect to geophysical data. As an ex le for demonstration, we apply AA to a 39-yr sea surface temperature (SST) reanalysis dataset. We show that the decisions made to implement AA can significantly affect the interpretation of results, but also, in the case of SST, that the analysis is exceptionally robust under both spatial and temporal coarse graining. Archetypal analysis (AA), when applied to geophysical fields, is a technique designed to find typical configurations or modes in underlying data. This technique is relatively new to the geophysical science community and has been shown to be beneficial to the interpretation of extreme modes of the climate system. The identification of extreme modes of variability and their expression in day-to-day weather or state of the climate at longer time scales may help in elucidating the interplay between major teleconnection drivers and their evolution in a changing climate. The purpose of this work is to bring together a comprehensive report of the AA methodology using an SST reanalysis for demonstration. It is shown that the AA results are significantly affected by each implementation decision, but also can be resilient to spatiotemporal averaging. Any application of AA should provide a clear documentation of the choices made in applying the method.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2001
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-03-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41612-022-00248-4
Abstract: Wildfire can cause significant adverse impacts to society and the environment. Weather and climate play an important role in modulating wildfire activity. We explore the joint occurrence of global fire weather and meteorological drought using a compound events framework. We show that, for much of the globe, burned area increases when periods of heightened fire weather compound with dry antecedent conditions. Regions associated with wildfire disasters, such as southern Australia and the western USA, are prone to experiencing years of compound drought and fire weather. Such compound events have increased in frequency for much of the globe, driven primarily by increases in fire weather rather than changes in precipitation. El Ni $$\\tilde{{{{\\rm{n}}}}}$$ n ̃ o Southern Oscillation is associated with widespread, spatially compounding drought and fire weather. In the Northern Hemisphere, a La Ni $$\\tilde{{{{\\rm{n}}}}}$$ n ̃ a signature is evident, whereas El Ni $$\\tilde{{{{\\rm{n}}}}}$$ n ̃ o is associated with such events in the tropics and, to a lesser degree, the Southern Hemisphere. Other climate modes and regional patterns of atmospheric circulation are also important, depending on the region. We show that the lengths of the fire weather seasons in eastern Australia and western North America have increased substantially since 2000, raising the likelihood of overlapping fire weather events in these regions. These cross-hemispheric events may be linked to the occurrence of El Ni $$\\tilde{{{{\\rm{n}}}}}$$ n ̃ o, although the sea-surface temperature magnitudes are small. Instead, it is likely that anthropogenic climate change is the primary driver of these changes.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2022
DOI: 10.1016/J.JSTROKECEREBROVASDIS.2021.106201
Abstract: There are few large population-based studies of outcomes after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) than other stroke types. We pooled data from 13 population-based stroke incidence studies (10 studies from the INternational STRroke oUtComes sTudy (INSTRUCT) and 3 new studies N=657). Primary outcomes were case-fatality and functional outcome (modified Rankin scale score 3-5 [poor] vs. 0-2 [good]). Harmonized patient-level factors included age, sex, health behaviours (e.g. current smoking at baseline), comorbidities (e.g.history of hypertension), baseline stroke severity (e.g. NIHSS >7) and year of stroke. We estimated predictors of case-fatality and functional outcome using Poisson regression and generalized estimating equations using log-binomial models respectively at multiple timepoints. Case-fatality rate was 33% at 1 month, 43% at 1 year, and 47% at 5 years. Poor functional outcome was present in 27% of survivors at 1 month and 15% at 1 year. In multivariable analysis, predictors of death at 1-month were age (per decade increase MRR 1.14 [1.07-1.22]) and SAH severity (MRR 1.87 [1.50-2.33]) at 1 year were age (MRR 1.53 [1.34-1.56]), current smoking (MRR 1.82 [1.20-2.72]) and SAH severity (MRR 3.00 [2.06-4.33]) and at 5 years were age (MRR 1.63 [1.45-1.84]), current smoking (MRR 2.29 [1.54-3.46]) and severity of SAH (MRR 2.10 [1.44-3.05]). Predictors of poor functional outcome at 1 month were age (per decade increase RR 1.32 [1.11-1.56]) and SAH severity (RR 1.85 [1.06-3.23]), and SAH severity (RR 7.09 [3.17-15.85]) at 1 year. Although age is a non-modifiable risk factor for poor outcomes after SAH, however, severity of SAH and smoking are potential targets to improve the outcomes.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-08-2018
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-10-1551-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g., acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts, an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the objective of assessing the various datasets used to estimate components of the sea-level budget during the altimetry era (1993 to present). These datasets are based on the combination of a broad range of space-based and in situ observations, model estimates, and algorithms. Evaluating their quality, quantifying uncertainties and identifying sources of discrepancies between component estimates is extremely useful for various applications in climate research. This effort involves several tens of scientists from about 50 research teams/institutions worldwide (rand-challenges/gc-sea-level, last access: 22 August 2018). The results presented in this paper are a synthesis of the first assessment performed during 2017–2018. We present estimates of the altimetry-based global mean sea level (average rate of 3.1 ± 0.3 mm yr−1 and acceleration of 0.1 mm yr−2 over 1993–present), as well as of the different components of the sea-level budget (0.17882/54854, last access: 22 August 2018). We further examine closure of the sea-level budget, comparing the observed global mean sea level with the sum of components. Ocean thermal expansion, glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica contribute 42 %, 21 %, 15 % and 8 % to the global mean sea level over the 1993–present period. We also study the sea-level budget over 2005–present, using GRACE-based ocean mass estimates instead of the sum of in idual mass components. Our results demonstrate that the global mean sea level can be closed to within 0.3 mm yr−1 (1σ). Substantial uncertainty remains for the land water storage component, as shown when examining in idual mass contributions to sea level.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-12-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41612-021-00220-8
Abstract: Between June 2019 and March 2020, thousands of wildfires spread devastation across Australia at the tragic cost of many lives, vast areas of burnt forest, and estimated economic losses upward of AU$100 billion. Exceptionally hot and dry weather conditions, and preceding years of severe drought across Australia, contributed to the severity of the wildfires. Here we present analysis of a very large ensemble of initialized climate simulations to assess the likelihood of the concurrent drought and fire-weather conditions experienced at that time. We focus on a large region in southeast Australia where these fires were most widespread and define two indices to quantify the susceptibility to fire from drought and fire weather. Both indices were unprecedented in the observed record in 2019. We find that the likelihood of experiencing such extreme susceptibility to fire in the current climate was 0.5%, equivalent to a 200 year return period. The conditional probability is many times higher than this when we account for the states of key climate modes that impact Australian weather and climate. Drought and fire-weather conditions more extreme than those experienced in 2019 are also possible in the current climate.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 2015
Abstract: This study applies a finite-element, bounded-variation, vector autoregressive method to assess midtropospheric flow regimes characterized by regime switches between metastable states. The flow is assessed in reanalysis data from three different reanalysis sets assimilating surface data only surface and upper-air data and ocean, surface, and upper-air data. Results are generally consistent across the reanalyses and confirm the utility of surface-only reanalyses for capturing midtropospheric variability. The method is applied to a set of regional domains in the Northern Hemisphere and for the full-hemispheric domain. Composites of the metastable states for each region yield structures that are consistent with the well-documented teleconnection modes: the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific–North America pattern (PNA) in the Pacific Ocean, and Scandinavian blocking over Eurasia. The PNA mode includes a clear waveguide structure in midlatitudes. The Northern Hemisphere domain yields a state composite that reflects aspects of an annular mode (Arctic Oscillation), where the annular component in midlatitudes comprises a circumglobal waveguide. The Northern Hemisphere waveguide is characterized by wavenumber 5. Some of the nodes in this circumglobal waveguide manifest as part of regional dipole structures like the PNA. This situation contrasts with the Southern Hemisphere, where the circumglobal waveguide exhibits wavenumbers 3 and 5 and is monopolar. For each of the regions and modes examined, the annual time series of residence percent in each state displays prominent decadal variability and provides a clear means of identifying regimes of the major teleconnection modes.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-1998
DOI: 10.1029/97JA02819
Publisher: CSIRO
Date: 2017
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 10-1989
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2012
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00312.1
Abstract: Even in the absence of external forcing, climate models often exhibit long-term trends that cannot be attributed to natural variability. This so-called climate drift arises for various reasons including the following: perturbations to the climate system on coupling component models together and deficiencies in model physics and numerics. When examining trends in historical or future climate simulations, it is important to know the error introduced by drift so that action can be taken where necessary. This study assesses the importance of drift for a number of climate properties at global and local scales. To illustrate this, the present paper focuses on simulated trends over the second half of the twentieth century. While drift in globally averaged surface properties is generally considerably smaller than observed and simulated twentieth-century trends, it can still introduce nontrivial errors in some models. Furthermore, errors become increasingly important at smaller scales. The direction of drift is not systematic across different models or variables, as such drift is considerably reduced in the multimodel mean. Despite drift being primarily associated with ocean adjustment, it is also apparent in atmospheric variables. For ex le, most models have local drift magnitudes in surface air and ocean temperatures that are typically between 15% and 35% of the twentieth-century simulation trend magnitudes for 1950–2000. Below depths of 1000–2000 m, drift dominates over any forced trend in most regions. As such steric sea level is strongly affected and for some models and regions the sea level trend direction is reversed. Thus depending on the application, drift may be negligible or may make up an important part of the simulated trend.
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 11-04-2022
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-1495572/V1
Abstract: Extreme oceanic events, such as marine heatwaves, can have disastrous impacts on ecosystems and marine industries. Given their potential consequences, it is important to understand how broad-scale climate variability influence the probability of local extreme marine events. Here, for the first time, we employ an advanced data-mining methodology, archetype analysis, to identify large scale climate drivers and teleconnections that lead to marine extremes in certain regions. This methodology is applied to the Australasian region, where it identifies instances of anomalous sea-surface temperatures, frequently associated with marine heatwaves, as well as the broadscale oceanic and atmospheric conditions associated with those extreme events. Additionally, we use archetype analysis to assess the ability of a low-resolution climate model to accurately represent the teleconnection patterns associated with extreme oceanic temperatures, and discuss the implications for the predictability of these impactful events.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 08-03-2023
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PCLM.0000134
Abstract: Global coffee production is at risk from synchronous crop failures, characterised by widespread concurrent reductions in yield occurring in multiple countries at the same time. For other crops, previous studies have shown that synchronous failures can be forced by spatially compounding climate anomalies, which in turn may be driven by large-scale climate modes such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We provide a systematic analysis of spatially compounding climate hazards relevant to global coffee production. We identify 12 climate hazards from the literature, and assess the extent to which these hazards occur and co-occur for the top 12 coffee producing regions globally. We find that the number of climate hazards and compound events has increased in every region between 1980 and 2020. Furthermore, a clear climate change signature is evident, as the type of hazard has shifted from overly cool conditions to overly warm. Spatially compounding hazards have become particularly common in the past decade, with only one of the six most hazardous years occurring before 2010. Our results suggest that ENSO is the primary mode in explaining annual compound event variability, both globally and regionally. El Niño-like sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are associated with decreased precipitation and increased temperatures in most coffee regions, and with spatially compounding warm and dry events. This relationship is reversed for La Niña-like signatures. The Madden Julian Oscillation also shows a strong association with climate hazards to coffee, with increased activity in the Maritime Continent related to a global increase in the number of cold or wet hazards and a decrease in the number of warm or dry hazards. With climate change projections showing a continued rise in temperatures in the tropics is likely, we suggest that coffee production can expect ongoing systemic shocks in response to spatially compounding climate hazards.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2016
DOI: 10.1175/2016BAMSSTATEOFTHECLIMATE.1
Abstract: Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2016 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 27-01-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2924
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 03-2013
Abstract: Changes in the metastability of the Southern Hemisphere 500-hPa circulation are examined using both cluster analysis techniques and split-flow blocking indices. The cluster methodology is a purely data-driven approach for parameterization whereby a multiscale approximation to nonstationary dynamical processes is achieved through optimal sequences of locally stationary fast vector autoregressive factor (VARX) processes and some slow (or persistent) hidden process switching between them. Comparison is made with blocking indices commonly used in weather forecasting and climate analysis to identify dynamically relevant metastable regimes in the 500-hPa circulation in both reanalysis and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) datasets. The analysis characterizes the metastable regime in both reanalysis and model datasets prior to 1978 as positive and negative phases of a hemispheric midlatitude blocking state with the southern annular mode (SAM) associated with a transition state. Post-1978, the SAM emerges as a true metastable state replacing the negative phase of the hemispheric blocking pattern. The hidden state frequency of occurrences exhibits strong trends. The blocking pattern dominates in the early 1980s, and then gradually decreases. There is a corresponding increase in the SAM frequency of occurrence. This trend is largely evident in the reanalysis summer and spring but was not evident in the AMIP dataset. Further comparison with the split-flow blocking indices reveals a superficial correspondence between the cluster hidden state frequency of occurrences and split-flow indices. Examination of composite states shows that the blocking indices capture splitting of the zonal flow whereas the cluster composites reflect coherent block formation. Differences in blocking climatologies from the respective methods are discussed.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-10-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-018-33057-Y
Abstract: Changes over the scale of decades in oceanic environments present a range of challenges for management and utilisation of ocean resources. Here we investigate sources of global temporal variation in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Ocean Colour (Chl-a) and their co-variation, over a 14 year period using statistical methodologies that partition sources of variation into inter-annual and annual components and explicitly account for daily auto-correlation. The variation in SST shows bands of increasing variability with increasing latitude, while the analysis of annual variability in Chl-a shows mostly mid-latitude high variability bands. Covariation patterns of SST and Chl-a suggests several different mechanisms impacting Chl-a change and variance. Our high spatial resolution analysis indicates these are likely to be operating at relatively small spatial scales. There are large regions showing warming and rising of Chl-a, contrasting with regions that show warming and decreasing Chl-a. The covariation pattern in annual variation in SST and Chl-a reveals broad latitudinal bands. On smaller scales there are significant regional anomalies where upwellings are known to occur. Over decadal time scales both trend and variation in SST, Chl-a and their covariance is highly spatially heterogeneous, indicating that monitoring and resource management must be regionally appropriate.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-09-2004
DOI: 10.5194/ANGEO-22-2819-2004
Abstract: Abstract. During summer months at solar cycle minimum, F-region lacuna and slant-Es conditions (SEC) are common features of daytime ionograms recorded around local magnetic noon at Casey, Antarctica. Digisonde measurements of drift velocity height profiles show that the occurrence of lacuna prevents the determination of F-region drift velocities and also affects E-region drift velocity measurements. Unique E-region spectral features revealed as intervals of Bragg scatter superimposed on typical background E-region reflection were observed in Digisonde Doppler spectra during intense lacuna conditions. Daytime E-region Doppler spectra recorded at carrier frequencies from 1.5 to 2.7MHz, below the E-region critical frequency foE, have two side-peaks corresponding to Bragg scatter at approximately ±1-2Hz symmetrically located on each side of a central-peak corresponding to near-zenith total reflections. Angle-of-arrival information and ray-tracing simulations show that echo returns are coming from oblique directions most likely resulting from direct backscatter from just below the total reflection height for each sounding frequency. The Bragg backscatter events are shown to manifest during polar lacuna conditions, and to affect the determination of E-region background drift velocities, and as such must be considered when using standard Doppler-sorted interferometry (DSI) techniques to estimate ionospheric drift velocities. Given the Doppler and spatial separation of the echoes determined from high-resolution Doppler measurements, we are able to estimate the Bragg scatter phase velocity independently from the bulk E-region motion. The phase velocity coincides with the ExB direction derived from in situ fluxgate magnetometer records. When ionospheric refraction is considered, the phase velocity litudes deduced from DSI are comparable to the ion-acoustic speed expected in the E-region. We briefly consider the plausibility that these previously unreported polar cap E-region Bragg scatter Doppler spectral signatures, observed at Casey in December 1996 during SEC/lacuna conditions may be linked to ionosphere irregularities. These irregularities may possibly be generated by primary plasma waves triggered by current-driven instabilities, that is to say, a hybrid of the "modified two-stream" and "gradient drift" instability mechanisms.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 05-2019
Abstract: We define and examine extreme frost events at three station locations across southern Australia. A synoptic assessment of the events shows that they are generally characterized by passage of a front or trough followed by a developing blocking high. Frost typically occurs at the leading edge of the block. The very cold air pool leading to the frost event is the result of descent of cold, dry midtropospheric air parcels from regions poleward of the station. The air is exceptionally cold because it is advected across the strong meridional temperature gradients in the storm track. The air is dry because this equatorward meridional pathway requires descent and so must have origins well above the surface in the dryer midtroposphere. The position of the block and location of the dry descent are dynamically determined by large-scale waveguide modes in the polar jet waveguide. The role of the waveguide modes is deduced from composites of midtropospheric flow anomalies over the days preceding and after the frost events. These show organized wavenumber 3 or 4 wave trains, with the block associated with the frost formed as a node of the wave train. The wave trains resemble known waveguide modes such as the Pacific–South America mode, and the frost event projects clearly onto these modes during their life cycle. The strong interannual and decadal variability of extreme frost events at a location can be understood in light of event dependence on organized waveguide modes.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-2021
Abstract: Large-scale cloud features referred to as cloudbands are known to be related to widespread and heavy rain via the transport of tropical heat and moisture to higher latitudes. The Australian northwest cloudband is such a feature that has been identified in simple searches of satellite imagery but with limited investigation of its atmospheric dynamical support. An accurate, long-term climatology of northwest cloudbands is key to robustly assessing these events. A dynamically based search algorithm has been developed that is guided by the presence and orientation of the subtropical jet stream. This jet stream is the large-scale atmospheric feature that determines the development and alignment of a cloudband. Using a new 40-yr dataset of cloudband events compiled by this search algorithm, composite atmospheric and ocean surface conditions over the period 1979–2018 have been assessed. Composite cloudband upper-level flow revealed a tilted low pressure trough embedded in a Rossby wave train. Composites of vertically integrated water vapor transport centered around the jet maximum during northwest cloudband events reveal a distinct atmospheric river supplying tropical moisture for cloudband rainfall. Parcel backtracking indicated multiple regions of moisture support for cloudbands. A thermal wind anomaly orientated with respect to an enhanced sea surface temperature gradient over the Indian Ocean was also a key composite cloudband feature. A total of 300 years of a freely coupled control simulation of the ACCESS-D system was assessed for its ability to simulate northwest cloudbands. Composite analysis of model cloudbands compared reasonably well to reanalysis despite some differences in seasonality and frequency of occurrence.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-07-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-021-23771-Z
Abstract: Assessments of climate forecast skill depend on choices made by the assessor. In this perspective, we use forecasts of the El Niño-Southern-Oscillation to outline the impact of bias-correction on skill. Many assessments of skill from hindcasts (past forecasts) are probably overestimates of attainable forecast skill because the hindcasts are informed by observations over the period assessed that would not be available to real forecasts. Differences between hindcast and forecast skill result from changes in model biases from the period used to form forecast anomalies to the period over which the forecast is made. The relative skill rankings of models can change between hindcast and forecast systems because different models have different changes in bias across periods.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 1995
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-12-2017
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-017-17292-3
Abstract: The Southern Ocean has taken up more than 40% of the total anthropogenic carbon (C ant ) stored in the oceans since the preindustrial era, mainly in subantarctic mode and intermediate waters (SAMW-AAIW). However, the physical mechanisms responsible for the transfer of C ant into the ocean interior remain poorly understood. Here, we use high resolution (1/10°) ocean simulations to investigate these mechanisms at the SAMW-AAIW subduction hotspots. Mesoscale Stationary Rossby Waves (SRWs), generated where the Antarctic Circumpolar Current interacts with topography, make the dominant contribution to the C ant transfer in SAMW-AAIW in the Indian and Pacific sectors (66% and 95% respectively). Eddy-resolving simulations reproduce the observed C ant sequestration in these layers, while lower spatial resolution models, that do not reproduce SRWs, underestimate the inventory of C ant in these layers by 40% and overestimate the storage in denser layers. A key implication is that climate model simulations, that lack sufficient resolution to represent sequestration by SRWs, are therefore likely to overestimate the residence time of C ant in the ocean, with implications for simulated rates of climate change.
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 12-03-2003
DOI: 10.1101/GR.387103
Abstract: Linkage disequilibrium (LD) between densely spaced, polymorphic genetic markers in humans and other species contains information about historical population size. Inferring past population size is of interest both from an evolutionary perspective (e.g., testing the “out of Africa” hypothesis of human evolution) and to improve models for mapping of disease and quantitative trait genes. We propose a novel multilocus measure of LD, the chromosome segment homozygosity (CSH). CSH is defined for a specific chromosome segment, up to the full length of the chromosome. In computer simulations CSH was generally less variable than the r 2 measure of LD, and variability of CSH decreased as the number of markers in the chromosome segment was increased. The essence and utility of our novel measure is that CSH over long distances reflects recent effective population size ( N ), whereas CSH over small distances reflects the effective size in the more distant past. We illustrate the utility of CSH by calculating CSH from human and dairy cattle SNP and microsatellite marker data, and predicting N at various times in the past for each species. Results indicated an exponentially increasing N in humans and a declining N in dairy cattle. CSH is a valuable statistic for inferring population histories from haplotype data, and has implications for mapping of disease loci.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 1989
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2015JC011523
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 28-11-2015
Abstract: We examine a series of betting strategies on the transient response of greenhouse warming, expressed by changes in 15-year mean global surface temperature from one 15-year period to the next. Over the last century, these bets are increasingly dominated by positive changes (warming), reflecting increasing greenhouse forcing and its rising contribution to temperature changes on this time scale. The greenhouse contribution to 15-year trends is now of a similar magnitude to typical naturally occurring 15-year trends. Negative 15-year changes (decreases) have not occurred since about 1970, and are still possible, but now rely on large, and therefore infrequent, natural variations. Model projections for even intermediate warming scenarios show very low likelihoods of obtaining negative 15-year changes over the coming century. Betting against greenhouse warming, even on these short time scales, is no longer a rational proposition.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 22-08-2014
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061356
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 25-02-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062765
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 30-10-2015
Abstract: Changes in Earth’s climate are influenced by internal climate variability and external forcings, such as changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), and aerosols. Although the response of surface temperature to external forcings has been studied extensively, this has not been done for sea level. Here, a range of climate model experiments for the twentieth century is used to study the response of global and regional sea level change to external climate forcings. Both the global mean thermosteric sea level and the regional dynamic sea level patterns show clear responses to anthropogenic forcings that are significantly different from internal climate variability and larger than the difference between models driven by the same external forcing. The regional sea level patterns are directly related to changes in surface winds in response to the external forcings. The spread between different realizations of the same model experiment is consistent with internal climate variability derived from preindustrial control simulations. The spread between the different models is larger than the internal variability, mainly in regions with large sea level responses. Although the sea level responses to GHG and anthropogenic aerosol forcing oppose each other in the global mean, there are differences on a regional scale, offering opportunities for distinguishing between these two forcings in observed sea level change.
Location: Australia
No related grants have been discovered for Didier Monselesan.