ORCID Profile
0000-0002-9715-1109
Current Organisations
University of Southampton
,
University of East Anglia
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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-11-2016
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-2016-264
Abstract: Abstract. Modelling coastal morphological changes at decadal to centennial time scales is required to support sustainable coastal management world-wide. One approach involves coupling of landform-specific components (e.g. cliff, beach, dunes, estuaries, etc.) that have been independently developed. An alternative, and novel approach explored in this paper is to capture the essential characteristics of the landform-specific models using a common spatial representation within an appropriate software-environment. In the proposed Coastal Modelling Environment (CoastalME), change in coastal morphology is formulated by means of dynamically linked raster and geometrical objects. A grid of raster cells provides the data structure for representing quasi-3D spatial heterogeneity and sediment conservation. Other geometrical objects (lines, areas and volumes) that are consistent with, and derived from, the raster structure represent a library of coastal elements (e.g. shoreline, beach profiles and estuary volumes) as required by different landform-specific models. As a proof-of-concept, we illustrate the potential capabilities of CoastalME by integrating a cliff-beach model. We verify that CoastalME can reproduce behaviours of each in idual landform-specific model. Their integration within the framework of CoastalME reveals behaviours that emerge from landforms interaction and which have not previously been captured, such as the influence of the regional bathymetry on the local alongshore sediment transport gradient. This is the first step of the framework development, which provides an alternative to directly coupling existing models.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-07-2010
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2018
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2018.04.350
Abstract: As the scientific consensus concerning global climate change has increased in recent decades, research on potential impacts of climate change on water resources has been given high importance. However in Sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have fully evaluated the potential implications of climate change to their water resource systems. The Volta River is one of the major rivers in Africa covering six riparian countries (mainly Ghana and Burkina Faso). It is a principal water source for approximately 24 million people in the region. The catchment is primarily agricultural providing food supplies to rural areas, demonstrating the classic water, food, energy nexus. In this study an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) was applied to the whole Volta River system to simulate flow in the rivers and at the outlet of the artificial Lake Volta. High-resolution climate scenarios downscaled from three different Global Climate Models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES and CanESM2), have been used to drive the INCA model and to assess changes in flow by 2050s and 2090s under the high climate forcing scenario RCP8.5. Results show that peak flows during the monsoon months could increase into the future. The duration of high flow could become longer compared to the recent condition. In addition, we considered three different socio-economic scenarios. As an ex le, under the combined impact from climate change from downscaling CNRM-CM5 and medium+ (high economic growth) socio-economic changes, the extreme high flows (Q5) of the Black Volta River are projected to increase 11% and 36% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Lake Volta outflow would increase +1% and +5% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively, under the same scenario. The effects of changing socio-economic conditions on flow are minor compared to the climate change impact. These results will provide valuable information assisting future water resource development and adaptive strategies in the Volta Basin.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 09-2021
DOI: 10.1177/01171968211044082
Abstract: Low-lying atoll islands are especially threatened by anticipated sea-level rise, and migration is often mentioned as a potential response of these island societies. Further, small island states are developing population, economic and adaptation policies to plan the future. Policies, such as raising of islands or land reclamation, require a long-term vision on populations and migration. However, population and migration systems in small island settings are poorly understood. To address this deficiency requires an approach that considers changing environmental and socio-economic factors and in idual migration decision-making. This article introduces the conceptual model of migration and explores migration within one small island nation, the Mal es, as an ex le. Agent-based simulations of internal migration from 1985–2014 are used as a basis to explore a range of potential demographic futures up to 2050. The simulations consider a set of consistent demographic, environmental, policy and international migration narratives, which describe a range of key uncertainties. The capital island Malé has experienced significant population growth over the last decades, growing from around 67,000 to 153,000 inhabitants from 2000 to 2014, and comprising about 38 percent of the national population in 2014. In all future narratives, which consider possible demographic, governance, environmental and globalization changes, the growth of Malé continues while many other islands are effectively abandoned. The analysis suggests that migration in the Mal es has a strong inertia, and radical change to the environmental and/or socio-economic drivers would be needed for existing trends to change. Findings from this study may have implications for national development and planning for climate change more widely in island nations.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2016
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 18-10-2022
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-2043042/V1
Abstract: As sea-level rise (SLR) accelerates due to climate change, its multidisciplinary field of science has similarly expanded, from about 50 documents in 1990 to nearly 15,000 documents from 1990 to 2021. Here, big data, bibliometric techniques are adopted to systematically analyse this growing, large-scale literature. Four main research clusters (themes) emerge: (I) geological dimensions and biogeochemical cycles, (II) impacts, risks, and adaptation, (III) physical components of sea-level change, and (IV) coastal ecosystems and habitats, with 16 associated sub-themes. This analysis provides insights into the prioritisation of research agendas, the challenges and opportunities of future integrative, global scale assessment processes (e.g., next IPCC report), and how effectively this discipline is achieving societal impact. For ex le, the relative importance of sub-themes evolves consistently with a decline in pure science analysis towards solution-focused topics associated with SLR risks such as surface elevation change, flooding, ice sheets dynamics, coastal erosion and squeeze, and engineered shorelines.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 16-10-2017
DOI: 10.3390/JMSE5040049
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2018
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2018.03.368
Abstract: To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, erse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-07-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-020-67736-6
Abstract: Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global “hotspots” where there is projected to be a significant change in episodic flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in north western Europe and Asia. Results show that for the case of, no coastal protection or adaptation, and a mean RCP8.5 scenario, there will be an increase of 48% of the world’s land area, 52% of the global population and 46% of global assets at risk of flooding by 2100. A total of 68% of the global coastal area flooded will be caused by tide and storm events with 32% due to projected regional sea level rise.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF001071
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-2017
Abstract: Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels can produce devastating and wide-ranging consequences. The ‘SurgeWatch’ v1.0 database systematically documents and assesses the consequences of historical coastal flood events around the UK. The original database was inevitably biased due to the inconsistent spatial and temporal coverage of sea-level observations utilised. Therefore, we present an improved version integrating a variety of ‘soft’ data such as journal papers, newspapers, weather reports, and social media. SurgeWatch2.0 identifies 329 coastal flooding events from 1915 to 2016, a more than fivefold increase compared to the 59 events in v1.0. Moreover, each flood event is now ranked using a multi-level categorisation based on inundation, transport disruption, costs, and fatalities: from 1 (Nuisance) to 6 (Disaster). For the 53 most severe events ranked Category 3 and above, an accompanying event description based upon the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence framework was produced. Thus, SurgeWatch v2.0 provides the most comprehensive and coherent historical record of UK coastal flooding. It is designed to be a resource for research, planning, management and education.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2018
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 05-07-2022
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-1627606/V1
Abstract: Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in coastal adaptation is increasingly recognized as crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections comprising 253 coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation lanning from 49 countries with time frames of 2050 and 2100. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universally recognized, only 71% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard structure, 53% are planning for a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering an unlikely high-end scenario. Countries with long histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research proves insightful for improving sea-level science, and informs important ongoing efforts on the application of the science which are essential to promote effective adaptation.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-05-2015
Abstract: Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels can be devastating, with long-lasting and erse consequences. Historically, the UK has suffered major flooding events, and at present 2.5 million properties and £150 billion of assets are potentially exposed to coastal flooding. However, no formal system is in place to catalogue which storms and high sea level events progress to coastal flooding. Furthermore, information on the extent of flooding and associated damages is not systematically documented nationwide. Here we present a database and online tool called ‘SurgeWatch’, which provides a systematic UK-wide record of high sea level and coastal flood events over the last 100 years (1915-2014). Using records from the National Tide Gauge Network, with a dataset of exceedance probabilities and meteorological fields, SurgeWatch captures information of 96 storms during this period, the highest sea levels they produced, and the occurrence and severity of coastal flooding. The data are presented to be easily assessable and understandable to a range of users including, scientists, coastal engineers, managers and planners and concerned citizens.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-07-2020
DOI: 10.1007/S10113-020-01681-Y
Abstract: Bangladesh is one of the most climate-sensitive countries globally, creating significant challenges for future development. Here we apply an integrated assessment model — Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) — to the south-west coastal zone of Bangladesh to explore the outcomes of four contrasting and plausible development trajectories under different climate and socio-economic scenarios: (1) embankment rehabilitation (2) build elevation via controlled sedimentation (3) planned migration (managed retreat) and (4) ‘do nothing’ (unplanned migration and abandonment). Embankment rehabilitation reduces flood risk, but at a high economic cost and enhancing waterlogging. Planned and unplanned migration combined with limited infrastructure management and governance both result in significant abandonment. Building elevation through sedimentation has the potential for increased environmental and economic sustainability but raises equity issues. Poverty and inequality persist across all scenarios, and outmigration from the coastal zone continues, although the magnitude is sensitive to assumptions about sea-level rise, socio-economic development and development trajectory. Integrated assessment tools linking the environment, people and policy choices, such as the ΔDIEM used here, highlight the complex interactions occurring in a dynamic delta environment. Such analysis supports informed management, development and adaptation.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF002751
Abstract: Sea level rise (SLR) is a long‐lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process‐based models. However, risk‐averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high‐end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high‐end scenarios. High‐end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1‐2.6) relative to pre‐industrial values our high‐end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5‐8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long‐term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi‐meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high‐end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high‐end SLR.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2018
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2018.04.362
Abstract: The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River System, the associated Hooghly River and the Mahanadi River System represent the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 780 million. The rivers are of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as they provide fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and support the Delta System in the Bay of Bengal. Future changes in both climate and socio-economics have been investigated to assess whether these will alter river flows and water quality. Climate datasets downscaled from three different Global Climate Models have been used to drive a daily process based flow and water quality model. The results suggest that due to climate change the flows will increase in the monsoon period and also be enhanced in the dry season. However, once socio-economic changes are also considered, increased population, irrigation, water use and industrial development reduce water availability in drought conditions, threatening water supplies and posing a threat to river and coastal ecosystems. This study, as part of the DECCMA (Deltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation) project, also addresses water quality issues, particularly nutrients (N and P) and their transport along the rivers and discharge into the Delta System. Climate will alter flows, increasing flood flows and changing pollution dilution factors in the rivers, as well as other key processes controlling water quality. Socio-economic change will affect water quality, as water ersion strategies, increased population and industrial development alter the water balance and enhance fluxes of nutrients from agriculture, urban centers and atmospheric deposition.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 27-08-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2344
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2018
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001163
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001882
Abstract: This study provides a literature‐based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world‐regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea‐level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea‐level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio‐economic development (factors 2.3–5.8), digital elevation data (factors 1.2–3.8), ice sheet models (factor 1.6–3.8) and greenhouse gas emissions (factors 1.6–2.1). Local uncertainties that stand out but have not been quantified globally, relate to depth‐damage functions, defense failure mechanisms, surge and wave heights in areas affected by tropical cyclones (in particular for large return periods), as well as nearshore interactions between mean sea‐levels, storm surges, tides and waves. Advancing the state‐of‐the‐art requires analyzing and reporting more comprehensively on underlying uncertainties, including those in data, methods and adaptation scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties in digital elevation, coastal protection levels and depth‐damage functions would be best reduced through open community‐based efforts, in which many scholars work together in collecting and validating these data.
Publisher: Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC)
Date: 2015
DOI: 10.1039/C4EM00616J
Abstract: This study investigates the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on the flow and nitrogen fluxes of the Ganga river system.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2019
DOI: 10.1016/J.JENVMAN.2018.12.058
Abstract: The occupied Palestinian territories of West Bank and Gaza Strip are currently experiencing many challenges in the provision of infrastructure services for their inhabitants. This includes an undersupply of infrastructure services across multiple sectors - an issue exacerbated by population growth, increasing urbanisation, economic growth and climate change. We address this challenge by providing a systems-based assessment of Palestine's infrastructure requirements and identifying broad strategies for how those needs might be met. This assessment involved four key components including: 1) defining and assessing the current system and planned infrastructure investments 2) assessing potential future demand for infrastructure services 3) identifying alternative strategies for future infrastructure provision beyond planned investments and 4) analysing the performance of each strategy against a series of key performance indicators. Results from the assessment highlight the magnitude of the current and future need for urgent infrastructure investment in Palestine. The most immediate need is to alleviate the water crises in Gaza Strip, which will require at least twice as much water infrastructure investment over the coming decade than is currently in the pipeline, even if the goal is only to achieve the most basic World Health Organisation water availability requirements. To move beyond this protracted state of crises will then require a doubling of investments across all sectors to bring Palestine up to the standards of services already enjoyed by its neighbours. Such investments can have even greater impact on delivery of infrastructure services through the strategic use of interdependencies between infrastructure sectors, such as water re-use and energy-from-waste. In the pursuit of global sustainable development, the systems-based approach presented here provides an important first step in the assessment of infrastructure needs and opportunities for any country. It is particularly important for states like Palestine where key resources, such as water and energy, are so acutely constrained.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-04-2023
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-023-00703-X
Abstract: Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation lanning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages – Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation.
Publisher: Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC)
Date: 2015
DOI: 10.1039/C4EM00619D
Abstract: The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 17-07-2017
Abstract: Abstract. The ability to model morphological changes on complex, multi-landform coasts over decadal to centennial timescales is essential for sustainable coastal management worldwide. One approach involves coupling of landform-specific simulation models (e.g. cliffs, beaches, dunes and estuaries) that have been independently developed. An alternative, novel approach explored in this paper is to capture the essential characteristics of the landform-specific models using a common spatial representation within an appropriate software framework. This avoid the problems that result from the model-coupling approach due to between-model differences in the conceptualizations of geometries, volumes and locations of sediment. In the proposed framework, the Coastal Modelling Environment (CoastalME), change in coastal morphology is represented by means of dynamically linked raster and geometrical objects. A grid of raster cells provides the data structure for representing quasi-3-D spatial heterogeneity and sediment conservation. Other geometrical objects (lines, areas and volumes) that are consistent with, and derived from, the raster structure represent a library of coastal elements (e.g. shoreline, beach profiles and estuary volumes) as required by different landform-specific models. As a proof-of-concept, we illustrate the capabilities of an initial version of CoastalME by integrating a cliff–beach model and two wave propagation approaches. We verify that CoastalME can reproduce behaviours of the component landform-specific models. Additionally, the integration of these component models within the CoastalME framework reveals behaviours that emerge from the interaction of landforms, which have not previously been captured, such as the influence of the regional bathymetry on the local alongshore sediment-transport gradient and the effect on coastal change on an undefended coastal segment and on sediment bypassing of coastal structures.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-018-0476-5
Abstract: The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of bio ersity and highly valued ecosystem services
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-03-2022
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 06-11-2015
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-07-2023
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-023-00920-4
Abstract: As sea-level rise (SLR) accelerates due to climate change, its multidisciplinary field of science has similarly expanded, from 41 articles published in 1990 to 1475 articles published in 2021, and nearly 15,000 articles published in the Web of Science over this 32-year period. Here, big-data bibliometric techniques are adopted to systematically analyse this large literature set. Four main research clusters (themes) emerge: (I) geological dimensions and sea-level indicators, (II) impacts, risks, and adaptation, (III) physical components of sea-level change, and (IV) coastal ecosystems and habitats, with 16 associated sub-themes. This analysis provides insights into the evolution of research agendas, the challenges and opportunities for future assessments (e.g. next IPCC reports), and growing focus on adaptation. For ex le, the relative importance of sub-themes evolves consistently with a relative decline in pure science analysis towards solution-focused topics associated with SLR risks such as high-end rises, declining ecosystem services, flood hazards, and coastal erosion/squeeze.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 17-06-2019
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Robert Nicholls.