ORCID Profile
0000-0001-7590-992X
Current Organisations
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
,
Global Climate Forum
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Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF002751
Abstract: Sea level rise (SLR) is a long‐lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process‐based models. However, risk‐averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high‐end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high‐end scenarios. High‐end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1‐2.6) relative to pre‐industrial values our high‐end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5‐8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long‐term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi‐meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high‐end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high‐end SLR.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 09-09-2014
DOI: 10.1002/WCC.314
Abstract: Climate change vulnerability assessment ( CCVA ) can inform adaptation policy and help in incorporating climate futures in planning. The literature on CCVA stems from a number of research paradigms (e.g., risk assessment, natural disaster management, and urban planning), therefore making it difficult to extract major directions and methodologies from this body of work. A large number of assessments are based, partly or totally, on indicators which bring up specific methodological problems and constraints. In this study, first, we discuss the most important methodological challenges facing indicator‐based vulnerability assessment ( IBVA ) based on a set of key conceptual papers in the field. Second, we conduct a meta‐analysis of a representative s le of peer‐reviewed IBVA studies, to identify how current research on IBVA is engaging with these challenges. We attempt to elicit major thematic and methodological trends in this corpus with specific focus on issues related to geographical and temporal scales, aggregation, and nonlinearity. We find that health of ecosystems and bio ersity (28%), freshwater quantity and quality (12%), and public health (10%) have attracted the highest number of studies. Less than a third of the papers in our s le give some consideration to uncertainty and nonlinearity. Assessments typically use aggregation methods that are based on the Multiple Attribute Utility Theory despite the fact that IBVA rarely satisfies the theoretical requirements of this approach. A small percentage of IBVA studies critically scrutinize prevalent assessment methodologies or attempt to develop new ones, despite the raised questions in key theoretical papers about its methodological aspects. WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:775–792. doi: 10.1002/wcc.314 This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change Values‐Based Approach to Vulnerability and Adaptation
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-07-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-020-67736-6
Abstract: Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global “hotspots” where there is projected to be a significant change in episodic flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in north western Europe and Asia. Results show that for the case of, no coastal protection or adaptation, and a mean RCP8.5 scenario, there will be an increase of 48% of the world’s land area, 52% of the global population and 46% of global assets at risk of flooding by 2100. A total of 68% of the global coastal area flooded will be caused by tide and storm events with 32% due to projected regional sea level rise.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF001071
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2016
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 27-08-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2344
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 16-10-2017
DOI: 10.3390/JMSE5040049
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001163
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001882
Abstract: This study provides a literature‐based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world‐regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea‐level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea‐level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio‐economic development (factors 2.3–5.8), digital elevation data (factors 1.2–3.8), ice sheet models (factor 1.6–3.8) and greenhouse gas emissions (factors 1.6–2.1). Local uncertainties that stand out but have not been quantified globally, relate to depth‐damage functions, defense failure mechanisms, surge and wave heights in areas affected by tropical cyclones (in particular for large return periods), as well as nearshore interactions between mean sea‐levels, storm surges, tides and waves. Advancing the state‐of‐the‐art requires analyzing and reporting more comprehensively on underlying uncertainties, including those in data, methods and adaptation scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties in digital elevation, coastal protection levels and depth‐damage functions would be best reduced through open community‐based efforts, in which many scholars work together in collecting and validating these data.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-018-0476-5
Abstract: The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of bio ersity and highly valued ecosystem services
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 04-10-2018
No related grants have been discovered for Jochen Hinkel.