ORCID Profile
0000-0002-1445-1000
Current Organisations
The University of Auckland
,
National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2010
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2013
DOI: 10.1002/ROG.20022
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2015
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1
Abstract: Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time series over land, but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For ex le, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols and because of the large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-09-2011
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1229
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2010
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-2009
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-10-2022
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-09-2013
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1
Abstract: Globally averaged surface air temperatures in some decades show rapid increases (accelerated warming decades), and in other decades there is no warming trend (hiatus decades). A previous study showed that the net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere of about 1 W m−2 is associated with greater increases of deep ocean heat content below 750 m during the hiatus decades, while there is little globally averaged surface temperature increase or warming in the upper ocean layers. Here the authors examine processes involved with accelerated warming decades and address the relative roles of external forcing from increasing greenhouse gases and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Model results from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), show that accelerated warming decades are characterized by rapid warming of globally averaged surface air temperature, greater increases of heat content in the upper ocean layers, and less heat content increase in the deep ocean, opposite to the hiatus decades. In addition to contributions from processes potentially linked to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the positive phase of the IPO, adding to the response to external forcing, is usually associated with accelerated warming decades. Conversely, hiatus decades typically occur with the negative phase of the IPO, when warming from the external forcing is overwhelmed by internally generated cooling in the tropical Pacific. Internally generated hiatus periods of up to 15 years with zero global warming trend are present in the future climate simulations. This suggests that there is a chance that the current observed hiatus could extend for several more years.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-2010
Location: United States of America
Location: United States of America
No related grants have been discovered for Kevin Trenberth.