ORCID Profile
0000-0002-4892-3344
Current Organisation
University of Leeds
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Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-04-2019
DOI: 10.1002/QJ.3439
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 03-2015
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00180.1
Abstract: The Clouds, Aerosol, and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer (CAP-MBL) deployment at Graciosa Island in the Azores generated a 21-month (April 2009–December 2010) comprehensive dataset documenting clouds, aerosols, and precipitation using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF). The scientific aim of the deployment is to gain improved understanding of the interactions of clouds, aerosols, and precipitation in the marine boundary layer. Graciosa Island straddles the boundary between the subtropics and midlatitudes in the northeast Atlantic Ocean and consequently experiences a great ersity of meteorological and cloudiness conditions. Low clouds are the dominant cloud type, with stratocumulus and cumulus occurring regularly. Approximately half of all clouds contained precipitation detectable as radar echoes below the cloud base. Radar and satellite observations show that clouds with tops from 1 to 11 km contribute more or less equally to surface-measured precipitation at Graciosa. A wide range of aerosol conditions was s led during the deployment consistent with the ersity of sources as indicated by back-trajectory analysis. Preliminary findings suggest important two-way interactions between aerosols and clouds at Graciosa, with aerosols affecting light precipitation and cloud radiative properties while being controlled in part by precipitation scavenging. The data from Graciosa are being compared with short-range forecasts made with a variety of models. A pilot analysis with two climate and two weather forecast models shows that they reproduce the observed time-varying vertical structure of lower-tropospheric cloud fairly well but the cloud-nucleating aerosol concentrations less well. The Graciosa site has been chosen to be a permanent fixed ARM site that became operational in October 2013.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 17-12-2021
DOI: 10.1002/QJ.4218
Abstract: The first experiment studying the effect of irrigation on pre‐monsoon rainfall in India using a high‐resolution convection‐permitting model has been carried out. This study includes both short (3‐day) experiments and month‐long free‐running simulations, enabling investigation of the effect of irrigation on mesoscale circulations and associated rainfall. In the pre‐monsoon, it is found that irrigation increases rainfall in our simulations. Intriguingly, the rainfall increase found in the high‐resolution model mostly occurs on the mountains near the irrigation rather than over the irrigated region itself. This is because our applied irrigation is in low‐lying regions, and so it enhances the mountain‐valley flows leading to enhancement of diurnally driven orographic rainfall. Because Ganges basin irrigation occurs near mountains which already have some of the highest rainfall rates in the world, and which are subject to flash flooding and landslides, this has significant implications for hazards in mountainous regions during the pre‐monsoon and early monsoon period.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2010
Abstract: High-resolution three-dimensional cloud resolving model simulations of deep cumulus convection under a wide range of large-scale forcings are used to evaluate a mass flux closure based on boundary layer convective inhibition (CIN) that has previously been applied in parameterizations of shallow cumulus convection. With minor modifications, it is also found to perform well for deep oceanic and continental cumulus convection, and it matches simulated cloud-base mass flux much better than a closure based only on the boundary layer convective velocity scale. CIN closure maintains an important feedback among cumulus base mass flux, compensating subsidence, and CIN that keeps the boundary layer top close to cloud base. For deep convection, the proposed CIN closure requires prediction of a boundary layer mean turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and a horizontal moisture variance, both of which are strongly correlated with precipitation. For our cases, CIN closure predicts cloud-base mass flux in deep convective environments as well as the best possible bulk entraining CAPE closure, but unlike the latter, CIN closure also works well for shallow cumulus convection without retuning of parameters.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 10-2022
DOI: 10.1002/QJ.4367
Abstract: Variations in the character of monsoonal rainfall over the Western Ghats region on the west coast of India are studied using radiosondes, satellite observations, and reanalysis products. Summer monsoon rainfall over this region occurs in alternate offshore and onshore phases. It is shown that these phases are controlled primarily by the strength of the low‐level westerly jet. Thus, a classification based on the Froude number, , of the onshore flow is proposed, where, is the mountain height, is the mean wind speed, and is the mean Brunt–Väisäla frequency over depth . At low ( 0.5), onshore winds are weak and the diurnal thermal fluctuation over the orography is strong the land–sea and mountain–valley circulations are enhanced, leading to a stronger diurnal control over the rainfall. A nocturnal offshore propagation of rainfall from the west coast is seen during this phase. Rainfall over the rainshadow region to the east of the Western Ghats also increases, due to a weaker lee effect, while it decreases over the Western Ghats, due to a greater blocking effect. At high ( 1), orographic blocking of the low‐level winds is weak. Thus, rainfall is enhanced over the Western Ghats and reduced over the rainshadow region due to a stronger lee effect. In this phase, the diurnal thermal fluctuation over the orography is weak. The bulk Richardson number is less than 1, suggesting a dominance of vertical wind shear over the buoyancy forces. The level of free convection and convective inhibition over the west coast are also very low. Hence, at high , rainfall over the west coast results mainly from mechanical uplifting of the westerly winds by the Western Ghats, with no preference for a particular time of day. These findings will help in improving the representation of orographic effects and the diurnal cycle of rainfall in numerical models.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 22-02-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL090529
Abstract: This study shows that the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) dominates the Indian summer monsoon low‐precipitation bias in the Met Office Unified model. Analyzing a recent 9‐year period (June, July, August only), it is found that the precipitation bias is dominated by break and break‐to‐active transition BSISO phases, while some of the other phases have no bias at all over a 7‐day forecast. Evidence of a link to upstream effects is found, in that there is a delayed reduction in the moisture flux entering India from the west. It is also shown that an increase in the net flow of moisture out of India to the east is strongly linked to the low‐precipitation bias, and there is some evidence that this is related to a lack of low‐pressure systems over India. Most atmospheric models have substantial rainfall biases over India, and these results may indicate the circulation patterns responsible.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-03-2021
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU21-16255
Abstract: & & The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) is a major mode of intraseasonal variability in the Indian summer monsoon. The characteristic pattern includes northward/north-eastward propagating anomalies of convection and circulation over the Indian longitudes, and concurrent eastward propagating anomalies that move through the tropics from the equatorial Indian ocean. In the Indian monsoon region, the BSISO interacts with other processes to affect the rainfall variability on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Convection-permitting simulations are known to improve the representation of some of these smaller-scale processes, but until recently, it has not been feasible to use convection-permitting simulations to model the entire BSISO because of the temporal and spatial scales on which it occurs. Here we assess how well a global multi-year convection-permitting simulation with a coarse grid-spacing of ~10km at the equator models the BSISO. Using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, we show that overall, the convection-permitting simulation does not give a substantially better representation of the BSISO, when compared with a simulation which parametrises convection. In the observations, the first two EOF eigenvectors and their Principal Component (PC) time series describe the BSISO. The characteristic northwest-to-southeast slope of the observed EOF 1 and 2 patterns is not captured in the parametrised simulation but is better captured in the convection-permitting simulation. However, the convection-permitting simulation does not capture the observed relationship between the PC1 and PC2 time series that describe the strength and phase of the BSISO. The observed pattern is of a fairly constant phase difference between the PC1 and PC2 time series, but in the convection-permitting simulation, there are periods of both negative and positive phase differences. Our results demonstrate that the BSISO is very sensitive to the representation of convection and future higher resolution runs will provide useful routes for understanding scale interactions in the BSISO.& &
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-11-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017JD027031
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 29-08-2023
DOI: 10.1002/QJ.4550
Abstract: A transition from a predominantly offshore to an onshore rainfall phase over the west coast of India was simulated using three one‐way nested domains with 12, 4, and 1.33 km horizontal grid spacing in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The mechanism of offshore–onshore rainfall oscillation and the orographic effects of the Western Ghats are studied. A convective parametrization scheme was employed only in the 12 km domain. A trough extending offshore from the west coast facilitates offshore rainfall. This trough is absent during the onshore phase, and rainfall occurs over the coast mainly via orographic uplift by the Western Ghats. The model overestimates rainfall over the Western Ghats at all resolutions as it consistently underestimates the boundary‐layer stratification along the coast. Weaker stratification weakens the blocking effect of the Western Ghats, resulting in anomalous deep convection and rainfall over its windward slopes. The 4 and 1.33 km domains simulate the offshore‐to‐onshore transition of rainfall but fail to capture a sufficient contrast in rainfall between land and sea compared with observations. The 12 km domain produces light rainfall, anchored along the coast, throughout the simulation period and, hence, gravely underestimates the offshore rainfall. The offshore rainfall persisted in the 4 and 1.33 km domains in a sensitivity experiment in which the Western Ghats were flattened. This suggests that orographic effects do not significantly influence offshore rainfall. In another experiment, the convective parametrization scheme in the 12 km domain was turned off. This experiment simulated the offshore and onshore rainfall phases correctly to some extent but the rainfall intensity was unrealistically high. Thus, a model with a horizontal grid spacing of , in which convection evolves explicitly, is desired for simulating the west‐coast rainfall variations. However, improvements in the representation of boundary‐layer processes are needed to capture the land–sea contrast.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-10-2021
DOI: 10.1002/QJ.4155
Abstract: The lake–land breeze circulation over Lake Victoria was observed in unprecedented detail with a research aircraft during the HyVic pilot flight c aign in January 2019. An evening and morning flight observed the lake and land breezes respectively under mostly dry conditions. The circulation was observed at various heights along a transect across the lake and onshore in Tanzania. Profiles of the lower troposphere were recorded by dropsondes over the lake and land. Convection‐permitting MetUM simulations with different horizontal grid‐spacings (including sub‐km) were run for the flight periods. During the evening flight, the aircraft crossed the lake breeze front over land at 1627 LT, approximately 50 km to the east of the lake shore, recording a 6 gkg decrease in specific humidity and reversal in wind direction over 5 km. During the morning flight, a shallow land breeze was observed across the eastern shore at 0545 LT. At least one region of increased and deeper moisture (previously seen in simulations but never observed) was s led over the lake surface between 0527 and 0855 LT. This bulge of moisture was likely formed from the lifting of near‐surface moist air above the lake by low‐level convergence. The observations and model simulations suggest that low‐level convergence occurred at the leading edge of the land breeze, which had detached from the main land breeze and independently propagated westward across the lake with wave‐like characteristics. The MetUM simulations were able to reasonably reproduce the lake breeze front, bulge feature, and its propagation, which is a major achievement given the sparse observational data for model initialisation in this region. However, some timing, resolution and boundary‐layer depth biases require further investigation. Overall, this pilot c aign provided an unprecedented snapshot of the Lake Victoria lake–land breeze circulation and motivates a more comprehensive field c aign in the future.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-03-2021
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU21-15444
Abstract: & & Precipitation distribution around an orographic barrier is controlled by the Froude Number (Fr) of the impinging flow. Fr is essentially a ratio of kinetic energy and stratification of winds around the orography. For Fr & 1 (Fr & ), the flow is unblocked (blocked) and precipitation occurs over the mountain peaks and the lee region (upwind region). While idealized modelling studies have robustly established this relationship, its widespread real-world application is h ered by the dearth of relevant observations. Nevertheless, the data collected in the field c aigns give us an opportunity to explore this relationship and provide a testbed for numerical models. A realistic distribution of precipitation over a mountainous region in these models is necessary for flash-flood and landslide forecasting. The Western Ghats region is a classic ex le where the orographically induced precipitation leads to floods and landslides during the summer monsoon season. In the recent INCOMPASS field c aign, it was shown that the precipitation over the west coast of India occurred in alternate offshore and onshore phases. The Western Ghats received precipitation predominantly during the onshore phase which was characterized by a stronger westerly flow. Here, using the radiosonde data from a station over the Indian west coast and IMERG precipitation product, we show that climatologically, these phases can be mapped over an Fr-based classification of the monsoonal westerly flow. Classifying the flow as 'High Fr' (Fr & ), 'Moderate Fr' ( 0.5 & Fr & #8804 1) and 'Low Fr' ( Fr & #8804 0.5 ) gives three topographical modes of precipitation -- 'Orographic', 'Coastal' and 'Offshore', respectively. & Moreover, these modes are not sensitive to the choice of radiosonde station over the west coast.& &
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-03-2016
Abstract: A comparison of marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is presented, with attention to their seasonality, frequency of occurrence, and strength as measured by a cold air outbreak index. When considered on a gridpoint-by-gridpoint basis, MCAOs are more severe and more frequent in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in winter. However, when MCAOs are viewed as in idual events regardless of horizontal extent, they occur more frequently in the SH. This is fundamentally because NH MCAOs are larger and stronger than those in the SH. MCAOs occur throughout the year, but in warm seasons and in the SH they are smaller and weaker than in cold seasons and in the NH. In both hemispheres, strong MCAOs occupy the cold air sector of midlatitude cyclones, which generally appear to be in their growth phase. Weak MCAOs in the SH occur under generally zonal flow with a slight northward component associated with weak zonal pressure gradients, while weak NH MCAOs occur under such a wide range of conditions that no characteristic synoptic pattern emerges from compositing. Strong boundary layer deepening, warming, and moistening occur as a result of the surface heat fluxes within MCAOs.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 03-2018
Abstract: Monsoon depressions (MDs) bring substantial monsoon rainfall to northern and central India. These events usually form over the Bay of Bengal and travel across northern India toward Pakistan. Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis, an MD-tracking algorithm, and an objective identification method, the authors find that about 40% of MDs interact with northerly intrusions of dry desert air masses as the MDs traverse the subcontinent. MD interactions with dry intrusions are often preceded by positive potential vorticity (PV) anomalies on the subtropical jet and low-level anticyclonic anomalies over the north Arabian Sea. Dry intrusions nearly halve the precipitation rate in the southwest quadrant of MDs, where MDs rain the most. However, dry intrusions increase the rainfall rate near the MD center. Similarly, ascent is reduced west of the MD center and enhanced at the MD center, especially in the upper troposphere. The reduced ascent west of MD centers is likely attributable to changes in vertical shear reducing differential cyclonic vorticity advection. Dry intrusions slightly reduce MDs’ propagation speed. For the mid- to upper-level vortex, this can be explained by anomalous westerlies reducing propagation by adiabatic advection. For the lower-tropospheric vortex, it is likely that reduced diabatic generation of PV plays a role in slowing propagation, along with reduced adiabatic advection.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2016
Abstract: The current operational eddy-diffusivity countergradient (EDCG) planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme in the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) tends to underestimate the PBL growth in the convective boundary layer (CBL). To improve CBL growth, an eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) PBL scheme is developed, where the nonlocal transport by large turbulent eddies is represented by a mass-flux (MF) scheme and the local transport by small eddies is represented by an eddy-diffusivity (ED) scheme. For the vertical momentum mixing, the MF scheme is modified to include the effect of the updraft-induced pressure gradient force. While the EDMF scheme displays better CBL growth than the EDCG scheme, it tends to overproduce the amount of low clouds and degrades wind vector forecasts over the tropical ocean where strongly unstable PBLs are rarely found. In order not to degrade the forecast skill in the tropics, a hybrid scheme is developed, where the EDMF scheme is applied only for the strongly unstable PBL, while the EDCG scheme is used for the weakly unstable PBL. Along with the hybrid EDMF scheme, the heating by turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation is parameterized to reduce an energy imbalance in the GFS. To enhance a too weak vertical turbulent mixing for weakly and moderately stable conditions, the current local scheme in the stable boundary layer (SBL) is modified to use an eddy-diffusivity profile method. The hybrid EDMF PBL scheme with TKE dissipative heating and modified SBL mixing led to significant improvements in some key medium-range weather forecast metrics and was operationally implemented into the NCEP GFS in January 2015.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-03-2021
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU21-15748
Abstract: & & IMPROVE is motivated by the effects of orography on Indian precipitation as part of the diurnal cycle of convection, contributing to water supply, as well as its role in extreme events.& IMPROVE considers two focal regions.& The Western Ghats, which intercept the monsoon flow across the Arabian Sea, receive some of the most frequent and heaviest rainfall during summer as well as being subject to extremes such as the 2018 Kerala floods.& Meanwhile, the Himalayas play a vital role in separating dry midlatitude flows from tropical airmasses and are subject to extremes during the summer monsoon, as well as in winter due to the passage of western disturbances.& This presentation summarizes the key results of IMPROVE.& Firstly, we examine the impact of orography on the observed convective diurnal cycle and assess its simulation in models at a range of resolutions including convection-permitting scales.& MetUM and WRF model experiments are used to identify key mechanisms and test their capability at simulating scale interactions between forcing at the large scale from the BSISO and newly identified regimes of on- and offshore convection near the Western Ghats.& An additional aspect to this work is the construction of a two-layer analytical model to test the behaviour of sheared flow perpendicular to a ridge analogous to the Western Ghats.& Secondly, the role of orography in extreme events is considered.& For the Western Ghats, this focuses on the interaction between monsoon low-pressure systems and the southwesterly flow in enhancing local rainfall.& For the Himalayas, we focus on characterising interactions between tropical lows and western disturbances in enhancing the orographic precipitation.& The work in IMPROVE works towards a deeper understanding of orographic rainfall and its extremes over India and uncovering why such mechanisms may be poorly represented in models.& &
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-03-2022
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU22-12069
Abstract: & & Regional orography around India exerts a profound control on weather and climate, both in summer and winter as part of the diurnal cycle of convection, as well as in extreme events. & This poster summarizes the key results of the Indo-UK IMPROVE project (Indian Monsoon Precipitation over Orography: Verification and Enhancement of understanding).& IMPROVE considers two focal regions.& The Western Ghats intercept the monsoon flow across the Arabian Sea and receive some of the most frequent and heaviest summer rainfall, including being subject to extremes such as the 2018 Kerala floods.& Meanwhile, the Himalayas play a vital role in separating dry midlatitude flows from tropical airmasses in summer, while suffering extremes in winter due to western disturbances - cyclonic storms propagating on the subtropical westerly jet.& & & & & We examine the impact of orography on the observed convective diurnal cycle and assess its simulation in models at a range of resolutions including convection-permitting scales.& MetUM and WRF model experiments, in addition to DWR retrievals, are used to identify key mechanisms between forcing at the large scale from the BSISO and newly identified regimes of on- and offshore convection near the Western Ghats.& An additional aspect to this work is consideration of a novel Froude number approach for understanding the convective regimes.& Secondly, the role of orography in extreme events is considered, including its interactions between passing tropical depressions or western disturbances.& Finally, land-atmosphere interactions occurring during the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Western Ghats and Himalayas regions are discussed.& IMPROVE works towards a deeper understanding of orographic rainfall and its extremes over India and uncovering why such mechanisms may be poorly represented in models.& &
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 30-07-2015
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00846.1
Abstract: A deficit of shortwave cloud forcing over the Southern Ocean is persistent in many global climate models. Cloud regimes have been widely used in model evaluation studies to make a process-oriented diagnosis of cloud parameterization errors, but cloud regimes have some limitations in resolving both observed and simulated cloud behavior. A hybrid methodology is developed for identifying cloud regimes from observed and simulated cloud simultaneously. Through this methodology, 11 hybrid cloud regimes are identified in the ACCESS1.3 model for the high-latitude Southern Ocean. The hybrid cloud regimes resolve the features of observed cloud and characterize cloud errors in the model. The simulated properties of the hybrid cloud regimes, and their occurrence over the Southern Ocean and in the context of extratropical cyclones, are evaluated, and their contributions to the shortwave radiation errors are quantified. Three errors are identified: an overall deficit of cloud fraction, a tendency toward optically thin low and midtopped cloud, and an absence of a shallow frontal-type cloud at high latitudes and in the warm fronts of extratropical cyclones. To demonstrate the utility of the hybrid cloud regimes for the evaluation of changes to the model, the effects of selected changes to the model microphysics are investigated.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 31-08-2016
Abstract: A climatology of clouds within marine cold air outbreaks, primarily using long-term satellite observations, is presented. Cloud properties between cold air outbreaks in different regions in both hemispheres are compared. In all regions marine cold air outbreak clouds tend to be low level with high cloud fraction and low-to-moderate optical thickness. Stronger cold air outbreaks have clouds that are optically thicker, but not geometrically thicker, than those in weaker cold air outbreaks. There is some evidence that clouds deepen and break up over the course of a cold air outbreak event. The top-of-the-atmosphere longwave cloud radiative effect in cold air outbreaks is small because the clouds have low tops. However, their surface longwave cloud radiative effect is considerably larger. The rarity of cold air outbreaks in summer limits their shortwave cloud radiative effect. They do not contribute substantially to global shortwave cloud radiative effect and are, therefore, unlikely to be a major source of shortwave cloud radiative effect errors in climate models.
Publisher: American Journal of Science (AJS)
Date: 09-2008
DOI: 10.2475/07.2008.01
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 27-03-2022
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU22-2915
Abstract: & & In tropical convective climates, where numerical weather prediction of rainfall has high uncertainty, nowcasting provides essential alerts of extreme events several hours ahead. In principle, short-term prediction of intense convective storms could benefit from knowledge of the slowly-evolving land surface state in regions where soil moisture controls surface fluxes. Here we explore how near-real time (NRT) satellite observations of the land surface and convective clouds can be combined to aid early warning of severe weather in the Sahel on time scales of up to 12 hours. Using Land Surface Temperature (LST) as a proxy for soil moisture deficit, we characterise the state of the surface energy balance in NRT. We identify the most convectively-active parts of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) from spatial filtering of cloud-top temperature imagery.& & & & We find that predictive skill provided by LST data is maximised early in the rainy season, when soils are drier and vegetation less developed. Land-based skill in predicting intense convection extends well beyond the afternoon, with strong positive correlations between daytime LST and MCS activity persisting as far as the following morning in more arid conditions. For the Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (SWIFT) Forecasting Testbed event during September 2021, we developed a simple technique to translate LST data into NRT maps quantifying the likelihood of convection based solely on land state. We used these maps in combination with convective features to nowcast the tracks of existing MCSs, and predict likely new initiation locations. This is the first time to our knowledge that nowcasting tools based principally on land observations have been developed. The strong sensitivity of Sahelian MCSs to soil moisture, in combination with MCS life times of typically 6-18 hours, opens up the opportunity for nowcasting of hazardous weather well beyond what is possible from atmospheric observations alone, and could be applied elsewhere in the semi-arid tropics.& &
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-09-2014
Abstract: Abstract. The current operational version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) shows significant low cloud bias. These biases also appear in the Coupled Forecast System (CFS), which is developed from the GFS. These low cloud biases degrade seasonal and longer climate forecasts, particularly of short-wave cloud radiative forcing, and affect predicted sea surface temperature. Reducing this bias in the GFS will aid the development of future CFS versions and contributes to NCEP's goal of unified weather and climate modelling. Changes are made to the shallow convection and planetary boundary layer parameterisations to make them more consistent with current knowledge of these processes and to reduce the low cloud bias. These changes are tested in a single-column version of GFS and in global simulations with GFS coupled to a dynamical ocean model. In the single-column model, we focus on changing parameters that set the following: the strength of shallow cumulus lateral entrainment, the conversion of updraught liquid water to precipitation and grid-scale condensate, shallow cumulus cloud top, and the effect of shallow convection in stratocumulus environments. Results show that these changes improve the single-column simulations when compared to large eddy simulations, in particular through decreasing the precipitation efficiency of boundary layer clouds. These changes, combined with a few other model improvements, also reduce boundary layer cloud and albedo biases in global coupled simulations.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 23-02-2022
Abstract: In tropical convective climates, where numerical weather prediction of rainfall has high uncertainty, nowcasting provides essential alerts of extreme events several hours ahead. In principle, short-term prediction of intense convective storms could benefit from knowledge of the slowly evolving land surface state in regions where soil moisture controls surface fluxes. Here we explore how near-real time (NRT) satellite observations of the land surface and convective clouds can be combined to aid early warning of severe weather in the Sahel on time scales of up to 12 h. Using land surface temperature (LST) as a proxy for soil moisture deficit, we characterise the state of the surface energy balance in NRT. We identify the most convectively active parts of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) from spatial filtering of cloud-top temperature imagery. We find that predictive skill provided by LST data is maximised early in the rainy season, when soils are drier and vegetation less developed. Land-based skill in predicting intense convection extends well beyond the afternoon, with strong positive correlations between daytime LST and MCS activity persisting as far as the following morning in more arid conditions. For a Forecasting Testbed event during September 2021, we developed a simple technique to translate LST data into NRT maps quantifying the likelihood of convection based solely on land state. We used these maps in combination with convective features to nowcast the tracks of existing MCSs, and predict likely new initiation locations. This is the first time to our knowledge that nowcasting tools based principally on land observations have been developed. The strong sensitivity of Sahelian MCSs to soil moisture, in combination with MCS life times of typically 6–18 h, opens up the opportunity for nowcasting of hazardous weather well beyond what is possible from atmospheric observations alone, and could be applied elsewhere in the semi-arid tropics.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Jennifer Fletcher.