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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-11-2013
Abstract: Abstract. The Indian Ocean (44° S–30° N) plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, yet it remains one of the most poorly s led ocean regions. Several approaches have been used to estimate net sea–air CO2 fluxes in this region: interpolated observations, ocean biogeochemical models, atmospheric and ocean inversions. As part of the RECCAP (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) project, we combine these different approaches to quantify and assess the magnitude and variability in Indian Ocean sea–air CO2 fluxes between 1990 and 2009. Using all of the models and inversions, the median annual mean sea–air CO2 uptake of −0.37 ± 0.06 PgC yr−1 is consistent with the −0.24 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1 calculated from observations. The fluxes from the southern Indian Ocean (18–44° S −0.43 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1 are similar in magnitude to the annual uptake for the entire Indian Ocean. All models capture the observed pattern of fluxes in the Indian Ocean with the following exceptions: underestimation of upwelling fluxes in the northwestern region (off Oman and Somalia), overestimation in the northeastern region (Bay of Bengal) and underestimation of the CO2 sink in the subtropical convergence zone. These differences were mainly driven by lack of atmospheric CO2 data in atmospheric inversions, and poor simulation of monsoonal currents and freshwater discharge in ocean biogeochemical models. Overall, the models and inversions do capture the phase of the observed seasonality for the entire Indian Ocean but overestimate the magnitude. The predicted sea–air CO2 fluxes by ocean biogeochemical models (OBGMs) respond to seasonal variability with strong phase lags with reference to climatological CO2 flux, whereas the atmospheric inversions predicted an order of magnitude higher seasonal flux than OBGMs. The simulated interannual variability by the OBGMs is weaker than that found by atmospheric inversions. Prediction of such weak interannual variability in CO2 fluxes by atmospheric inversions was mainly caused by a lack of atmospheric data in the Indian Ocean. The OBGM models suggest a small strengthening of the sink over the period 1990–2009 of −0.01 PgC decade−1. This is inconsistent with the observations in the southwestern Indian Ocean that shows the growth rate of oceanic pCO2 was faster than the observed atmospheric CO2 growth, a finding attributed to the trend of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the 1990s.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2015
DOI: 10.1175/2015BAMSSTATEOFTHECLIMATE.1
Abstract: Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2014 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 11-11-2022
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-14-4811-2022
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at 0.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 27-06-2011
DOI: 10.1017/S0954102011000411
Abstract: The interannual variability of net community production (NCP) and air-sea CO 2 flux in a naturally iron fertilized and productive area of the Southern Ocean (Kerguelen plateau) was investigated using a 1D biogeochemical model driven by satellite chlorophyll, sea surface temperature and wind speed data for the 1997–2007 period. The model simulates the low f CO 2 and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) measured during summers 2004–05, 2005–06, 2006–07 and the high NCP derived from a seasonal carbon budget in the surface waters of these blooms. Although satellite data show high interannual variability in the dynamics and magnitude of the bloom during the 1997–2007 decade, the simulated interannual variability of the NCP was only ± 14%. This unexpected result could be due to the combined effect of both the duration and the start date of the bloom, the latter determining the depth of the mixed layer used to compute the NCP. In the productive area, the interannual variability of air-sea CO 2 flux (± 13%) was not only driven by the biological effect but also by the solubility effect. Our results contrast with previous studies in the high nutrient, low chlorophyll regions of the Southern Ocean.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 02-10-2020
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 16-08-2013
Abstract: Abstract. The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) is an effort by the international marine carbon research community. It aims to improve access to carbon dioxide measurements in the surface oceans by regular releases of quality controlled and fully documented synthesis and gridded fCO2 (fugacity of carbon dioxide) products. SOCAT version 2 presented here extends the data set for the global oceans and coastal seas by four years and has 10.1 million surface water fCO2 values from 2660 cruises between 1968 and 2011. The procedures for creating version 2 have been comparable to those for version 1. The SOCAT website (www.socat.info/) provides access to the in idual cruise data files, as well as to the synthesis and gridded data products. Interactive online tools allow visitors to explore the richness of the data. Scientific users can also retrieve the data as downloadable files or via Ocean Data View. Version 2 enables carbon specialists to expand their studies until 2011. Applications of SOCAT include process studies, quantification of the ocean carbon sink and its spatial, seasonal, year-to-year and longer-term variation, as well as initialisation or validation of ocean carbon models and coupled-climate carbon models.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 12-03-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from 0.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 2017
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-12-2015
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 14-11-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), EFF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr−1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2 % (range of −1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2002
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2009
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-12-2019
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-11-1783-2019
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr−1, reaching 10 GtC yr−1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among in idual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at 0.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-2009
DOI: 10.1029/2009GL038227
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 05-02-2010
Abstract: Abstract. Carbon and carbon-relevant hydrographic and hydrochemical ancillary data from previously not publicly available cruises were retrieved and recently merged to a new data base, CARINA (CARbon IN the Atlantic). The initial North Atlantic project, an international effort for ocean carbon synthesis, was extended to include the Arctic Mediterranean Seas (Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas) and all three sectors of the Southern Ocean. Of a total of 188 cruises, 37 cruises are part of the Southern Ocean. The present work focuses on data collected in the Indian sector (20° S–70° S 30° E–150° E). The Southern Indian Ocean dataset covers the period 1992–2004 and includes seasonal repeated observations. Parameters including salinity, dissolved inorganic carbon (TCO2), total alkalinity (TA), oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and silicate were examined for cruise-to-cruise and overall consistency. In addition, data from an existing, quality controlled data base (GLODAP) were introduced in the CARINA analysis to improve data coverage in the Southern Ocean. A global inversion was performed to synthesize the information deduced from objective comparisons of deep measurements ( m) at nearby stations (generally km). The corrections suggested by the inversion were allowed to vary within a fixed envelope, thus accounting for ocean interior variability. The adjustments applied to CARINA data and those recommended for GLODAP data, in order to obtain a consistent merged dataset, are presented and discussed. The final outcome of this effort is a new quality controlled data base for TCO2 and other properties of the carbon system that can now be used to investigate the natural variability or stability of ocean chemistry and the accumulation of anthropogenic carbon. This data product also offers an important new synthesis of seasonal to decadal observations to validate ocean biogeochemical models in a region where available historical data were very sparse.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 11-12-2020
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-12-3269-2020
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median estimate) based on in idual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %, −7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from erse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019 Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at 0.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020).
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 08-05-2015
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr−1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 12-07-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2009
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 13-05-2023
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-023-38425-5
Abstract: The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in a warming climate. However, observational evidence of such changes in the Southern Ocean is difficult to obtain due to sparse measurements and a complex superposition of changes in precipitation, sea ice, and glacial meltwater. Here we disentangle these signals using a dataset of salinity and seawater oxygen isotope observations collected in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. Our results show that the atmospheric water cycle has intensified in this region between 1993 and 2021, increasing the salinity in subtropical surface waters by 0.06 ± 0.07 g kg −1 per decade, and decreasing the salinity in subpolar surface waters by -0.02 ± 0.01 g kg −1 per decade. The oxygen isotope data allow to discriminate the different freshwater processes showing that in the subpolar region, the freshening is largely driven by the increase in net precipitation (by a factor two) while the decrease in sea ice melt is largely balanced by the contribution of glacial meltwater at these latitudes. These changes extend the growing evidence for an acceleration of the hydrological cycle and a melting cryosphere that can be expected from global warming.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2016
DOI: 10.1175/2016BAMSSTATEOFTHECLIMATE.1
Abstract: Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2016 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Publisher: Stockholm University Press
Date: 2006
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 22-07-2010
Abstract: Abstract. The CARINA project is aimed at gathering and providing secondary quality control checks on carbon and carbon-relevant hydrographic and geochemical data from cruises all across the Atlantic, Arctic and Southern Ocean. In total the project gathered 188 cruises that were not previously available to the public. Of these 188 cruises, 37 are part of the Southern Ocean. Parameters from the Southern Ocean cruises, including total carbon dioxide (TCO2), total alkalinity, oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and silicate, were examined for cruise-to-cruise consistency. pH and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are also part of the data base, but are not discussed here. This paper focuses on the quality control of the Southern Ocean data from the Pacific sector which consisted of 29 cruises of which 17 were included in a previous synthesis called GLODAP, 11 were new cruises from the CARINA dataset, and one cruise was included in GLODAP but was updated with new data and therefore also included in CARINA. The Pacific sector quality control procedures included crossover analysis between stations and inversion analysis of all crossover data. The GLODAP data were included into the analysis as reference cruises but without applying the GLODAP recommended adjustments so the corrections could be independently verified. The outcome of this effort is an internally consistent, high-quality carbon data set for all cruises, including the reference cruises.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 10-07-2007
DOI: 10.1029/2007EO280005
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 17-11-2009
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO689
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 11-09-2015
Abstract: Has global warming slowed the uptake of atmospheric CO 2 by the Southern Ocean? Landschützer et al. say no (see the Perspective by Fletcher). Previous work suggested that the strength of the Southern Ocean carbon sink fell during the 1990s. This raised concerns that such a decline would exacerbate the rise of atmospheric CO 2 and thereby increase global surface air temperatures and ocean acidity. The newer data show that the Southern Ocean carbon sink strengthened again over the past decade, which illustrates the dynamic nature of the process and alleviates some of the anxiety about its earlier weakening trend. Science , this issue p. 1221 see also p. 1165
Publisher: Stockholm University Press
Date: 09-1999
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 08-01-2013
Abstract: Abstract. The Southern Ocean (44° S–75° S) plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle, yet remains one of the most poorly s led ocean regions. Different approaches have been used to estimate sea-air CO2 fluxes in this region: synthesis of surface ocean observations, ocean biogeochemical models, and atmospheric and ocean inversions. As part of the RECCAP (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) project, we combine these different approaches to quantify and assess the magnitude and variability in Southern Ocean sea-air CO2 fluxes between 1990–2009. Using all models and inversions (26), the integrated median annual sea-air CO2 flux of −0.42 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1 for the 44° S–75° S region is consistent with the −0.27 ± 0.13 Pg C yr−1 calculated using surface observations. The circumpolar region south of 58° S has a small net annual flux (model and inversion median: −0.04 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1 and observations: +0.04 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1), with most of the net annual flux located in the 44° S to 58° S circumpolar band (model and inversion median: −0.36 ± 0.09 Pg C yr−1 and observations: −0.35 ± 0.09 Pg C yr−1). Seasonally, in the 44° S–58° S region, the median of 5 ocean biogeochemical models captures the observed sea-air CO2 flux seasonal cycle, while the median of 11 atmospheric inversions shows little seasonal change in the net flux. South of 58° S, neither atmospheric inversions nor ocean biogeochemical models reproduce the phase and litude of the observed seasonal sea-air CO2 flux, particularly in the Austral Winter. Importantly, no in idual atmospheric inversion or ocean biogeochemical model is capable of reproducing both the observed annual mean uptake and the observed seasonal cycle. This raises concerns about projecting future changes in Southern Ocean CO2 fluxes. The median interannual variability from atmospheric inversions and ocean biogeochemical models is substantial in the Southern Ocean up to 25% of the annual mean flux with 25% of this inter-annual variability attributed to the region south of 58° S. Trends in the net CO2 flux from the inversions and models are not statistically different from the expected increase of –0.05 Pg C yr−1 decade−1 due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, resolving long term trends is difficult due to the large interannual variability and short time frame (1990–2009) of this study.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-04-2013
Abstract: Abstract. As a response to public demand for a well-documented, quality controlled, publically available, global surface ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) data set, the international marine carbon science community developed the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT). The first SOCAT product is a collection of 6.3 million quality controlled surface CO2 data from the global oceans and coastal seas, spanning four decades (1968–2007). The SOCAT gridded data presented here is the second data product to come from the SOCAT project. Recognizing that some groups may have trouble working with millions of measurements, the SOCAT gridded product was generated to provide a robust, regularly spaced CO2 fugacity (fCO2) product with minimal spatial and temporal interpolation, which should be easier to work with for many applications. Gridded SOCAT is rich with information that has not been fully explored yet (e.g., regional differences in the seasonal cycles), but also contains biases and limitations that the user needs to recognize and address (e.g., local influences on values in some coastal regions).
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 19-05-2012
DOI: 10.1029/2011GB004095
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 14-10-2010
DOI: 10.1029/2009GB003658
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 05-12-2018
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-10-2141-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among in idual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from 0.18160/GCP-2018.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2009
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-02-2008
Abstract: Abstract. We compiled a large data-set from 22 cruises spanning from 1991 to 2003, of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in surface waters over the continental shelf (CS) and adjacent open ocean (43° to 46° S 145° to 150° E), south of Tasmania. Climatological seasonal cycles of pCO2 in the CS, the subtropical zone (STZ) and the subAntarctic zone (SAZ) are described and used to determine monthly pCO2 anomalies. These are used in combination with monthly anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) to investigate inter-annual variations of SST and pCO2. Monthly anomalies of SST (as intense as 2°C) are apparent in the CS, STZ and SAZ, and are indicative of strong inter-annual variability that seems to be related to large-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Anomalies of pCO2 normalized to a constant temperature are negatively related to SST anomalies. A reduced winter-time vertical input of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) during phases of positive SST anomalies, related to a poleward shift of westerly winds, and a concomitant local decrease in wind stress is the likely cause of the negative relationship between pCO2 and SST anomalies. The observed pattern is an increase of the sink for atmospheric CO2 associated with positive SST anomalies, although strongly modulated by inter-annual variability of wind speed. Assuming that phases of positive SST anomalies are indicative of the future evolution of regional ocean biogeochemistry under global warming, we show using a purely observational based approach that some provinces of the Southern Ocean could provide a potential negative feedback on increasing atmospheric CO2.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 25-05-2016
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-2016-15
Abstract: Abstract. The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) is a synthesis of quality-controlled fCO2 (fugacity of carbon dioxide) values for the global surface oceans and coastal seas with regular updates. Version 3 of SOCAT has 14.5 million fCO2 values from 3646 data sets covering the years 1957 to 2014. This latest version has an additional 4.4 million fCO2 values relative to version 2 and extends the record from 2011 to 2014. Version 3 also significantly increases the data availability for 2005 to 2013. SOCAT has an average of approximately 1.2 million surface water fCO2 values per year for the years 2006 to 2012. Quality and documentation of the data has improved. A new feature is the data set quality control (QC) flag of E for data from alternative sensors and platforms. The accuracy of surface water fCO2 has been defined for all data set QC flags. Automated range checking has been carried out for all data sets during their upload into SOCAT. The upgrade of the interactive Data Set Viewer (previously known as the Cruise Data Viewer) allows better interrogation of the SOCAT data collection and rapid creation of high-quality figures for scientific presentations. Automated data upload has been launched for version 4 and will enable more frequent SOCAT releases in the future. High-profile scientific applications of SOCAT include quantification of the ocean sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and its long-term variation, detection of ocean acidification, as well as evaluation of coupled-climate and ocean-only biogeochemical models. Users of SOCAT data products are urged to acknowledge the contribution of data providers, as stated in the SOCAT Fair Data Use Statement. This ESSD (Earth System Science Data) "Living Data" publication documents the methods and data sets used for the assembly of this new version of the SOCAT data collection and compares these with those used for earlier versions of the data collection (Pfeil et al., 2013 Sabine et al., 2013 Bakker et al., 2014).
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-04-2013
Abstract: Abstract. A well-documented, publicly available, global data set of surface ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) parameters has been called for by international groups for nearly two decades. The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) project was initiated by the international marine carbon science community in 2007 with the aim of providing a comprehensive, publicly available, regularly updated, global data set of marine surface CO2, which had been subject to quality control (QC). Many additional CO2 data, not yet made public via the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), were retrieved from data originators, public websites and other data centres. All data were put in a uniform format following a strict protocol. Quality control was carried out according to clearly defined criteria. Regional specialists performed the quality control, using state-of-the-art web-based tools, specially developed for accomplishing this global team effort. SOCAT version 1.5 was made public in September 2011 and holds 6.3 million quality controlled surface CO2 data points from the global oceans and coastal seas, spanning four decades (1968–2007). Three types of data products are available: in idual cruise files, a merged complete data set and gridded products. With the rapid expansion of marine CO2 data collection and the importance of quantifying net global oceanic CO2 uptake and its changes, sustained data synthesis and data access are priorities.
No related grants have been discovered for nicolas metzl.