ORCID Profile
0000-0003-2613-2530
Current Organisation
Wageningen University
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Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 16-03-2018
Publisher: Canadian Science Publishing
Date: 09-2020
Abstract: Analysis of growth increments in the hard parts of animals (e.g., fish otoliths) can be used to assess how organisms respond to variability in environmental conditions. In this study, mixed-effects models were applied to otolith data simulated for two hypothetical fish populations with assumed biological parameters and known growth response to environmental variability. Our objective was to assess the sensitivity of environment–growth relationships derived from otolith biochronologies when challenged with a range of realistic ageing errors and s ling regimes. We found that the development of a robust biochronology and the precision of environmental effect estimates can be seriously h ered by insufficient s le size. Moreover, the introduction of even moderate ageing error into the data can cause substantial underestimation of environmental sources of growth variation. This underestimation diminished our capacity to correctly quantify the known environment–growth relationship and more generally will lead to overly conservative conclusions concerning the growth response to environmental change. Careful study design, reduction of ageing errors, and large s le sizes are critical prerequisites if robust inferences are to be made from biochronological data.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-01-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S42003-021-02960-Y
Abstract: Marine fish populations commonly exhibit low-frequency fluctuations in biomass that can cause catch volatility and thus endanger the food and economic security of dependent coastal societies. Such variability has been linked to fishing intensity, demographic processes and environmental variability, but our understanding of the underlying drivers remains poor for most fish stocks. Our study departs from previous findings showing that sea surface temperature (SST) is a significant driver of fish somatic growth variability and that life-history characteristics mediate population-level responses to environmental variability. We use autoregressive models to simulate how fish populations integrate SST variability over multiple years depending on fish life span and trophic position. We find that simulated SST-driven population dynamics can explain a significant portion of observed low-frequency variability in independent observations of fisheries landings around the globe. Predictive skill, however, decreases with increasing fishing pressure, likely due to demographic truncation. Using our modelling approach, we also show that increases in the mean and variance of SST could lify biomass volatility and lessen its predictability in the future. Overall, biological integration of high-frequency SST variability represents a null hypothesis with which to explore the drivers of low-frequency population change across upper-trophic marine species.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2013
DOI: 10.1016/J.TPLANTS.2013.05.006
Abstract: Tropical forests will experience major changes in environmental conditions this century. Understanding their responses to such changes is crucial to predicting global carbon cycling. Important knowledge gaps exist: the causes of recent changes in tropical forest dynamics remain unclear and the responses of entire tropical trees to environmental changes are poorly understood. In this Opinion article, we argue that filling these knowledge gaps requires a new research strategy, one that focuses on trees instead of leaves or communities, on long-term instead of short-term changes, and on understanding mechanisms instead of documenting changes. We propose the use of tree-ring analyses, stable-isotope analyses, manipulative field experiments, and well-validated simulation models to improve predictions of forest responses to global change.
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 12-02-2018
Abstract: European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) is a commercially important flatfish species in the North Sea. Yet, the environmental factors that affect the growth of plaice remain unresolved. Here we examine the drivers of plaice growth variation by using a large archive of otoliths from female plaice collected in the northeastern part of the North Sea from 1993 to 2015, providing growth data over the period 1985–2014. We developed a series of increasingly complex mixed-effect models to explore intrinsic (within in idual) and extrinsic (environmental factors: bottom temperature and plaice density) sources of growth variation. We analysed juvenile (0 and 1 year) and (sub)adult (≥2 years) growth separately due to different habitat utilization across life stages. Juvenile growth was positively correlated with bottom temperature, whereas growth of adults was negatively correlated with bottom temperature. Correlations for both were strongest during autumn (September to October). For juveniles, the temperature–growth relationship likely reflects a response to growing season length while for adults it could reflect temperature-dependent changes to metabolic rate or food availability. For both juveniles and adults, we also found inverse relationship between population density and growth. We suggest that the approach used in this study can find a much wider application in European waters.
No related grants have been discovered for Peter Van der Sleen.