ORCID Profile
0000-0002-2473-2586
Current Organisation
University of Southampton
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Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-01-2018
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 12-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016JC012091
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-05-2020
DOI: 10.1007/S00382-020-05261-Y
Abstract: Observations over the last 40 years show that the Atlantic Ocean salinity pattern has lified, likely in response to changes in the atmospheric branch of the global water cycle. Observational estimates of oceanic meridional freshwater transport ( FWT ) at 26.5° N indicate a large increase over the last few decades, during an apparent decrease in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC ). However, there is limited observation based information at other latitudes. The relative importance of changing FWT ergence in these trends remains uncertain. Ten models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are analysed for AMOC, FWT , water cycle, and salinity changes over 1950–2100. Over this timescale, strong trends in the water cycle and oceanic freshwater transports emerge, a part of anthropogenic climate change. Results show that as the water cycle lifies with warming, FWT strengthens (more southward freshwater transport) throughout the Atlantic sector over the 21st century. FWT strengthens in the North Atlantic subtropical region in spite of declining AMOC , as the long-term trend is dominated by salinity change. The AMOC decline also induces a southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and a dipole pattern of precipitation change over the tropical region. The consequent decrease in freshwater input north of the equator together with increasing net evaporation lead to strong salinification of the North Atlantic sub-tropical region, enhancing net northward salt transport. This opposes the influence of further AMOC weakening and results in intensifying southward freshwater transports across the entire Atlantic.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 07-2018
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2015
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1
Abstract: Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time series over land, but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For ex le, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols and because of the large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-12-2016
DOI: 10.1038/SREP38752
Abstract: A change in the cycle of water from dry to wet regions of the globe would have far reaching impact on humanity. As air warms, its capacity to hold water increases at the Clausius-Clapeyron rate (CC, approximately 7% °C −1 ). Surface ocean salinity observations have suggested the water cycle has lified at close to CC following recent global warming, a result that was found to be at odds with state-of the art climate models. Here we employ a method based on water mass transformation theory for inferring changes in the water cycle from changes in three-dimensional salinity. Using full depth salinity observations we infer a water cycle lification of 3.0 ± 1.6% °C −1 over 1950–2010. Climate models agree with observations in terms of a water cycle lification (4.3 ± 2.0% °C −1 ) substantially less than CC adding confidence to projections of total water cycle change under greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-12-2015
Abstract: The global water cycle leaves an imprint on ocean salinity through evaporation and precipitation. It has been proposed that observed changes in salinity can be used to infer changes in the water cycle. Here salinity is characterized by the distribution of water masses in salinity coordinates. Only mixing and sources and sinks of freshwater and salt can modify this distribution. Mixing acts to collapse the distribution, making saline waters fresher and fresh waters more saline. Hence, in steady state, there must be net precipitation over fresh waters and net evaporation over saline waters. A simple model is developed to describe the relationship between the breadth of the distribution, the water cycle, and mixing—the latter being characterized by an e-folding time scale. In both observations and a state-of-the-art ocean model, the water cycle maintains a salinity distribution in steady state with a mixing time scale of the order of 50 yr. The same simple model predicts the response of the salinity distribution to a change in the water cycle. This study suggests that observations of changes in ocean salinity could be used to infer changes in the hydrological cycle.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Nikolaos Skliris.