ORCID Profile
0000-0002-1560-2093
Current Organisation
CSIRO
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Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 16-12-2022
Abstract: In times of rapid change and rising human pressures on marine systems, information about the future state of the ocean can provide decision-makers with time to avoid adverse impacts and maximise opportunities. An ecological forecast predicts changes in ecosystems and its components due to environmental forcing such as climate variability and change, extreme weather conditions, pollution, or habitat change. Here, we summarise ex les from several sectors and a range of locations. We describe the need, approach, forecast performance, delivery system, and end user uptake. This examination shows that near-term ecological forecasts are needed by end users, decisions are being made based on forecasts, and there is an urgent need to develop operational information systems to support sustainable ocean management. An operational information system is critical for connecting to decision makers and providing an enduring approach to forecasting and proactive decision making. These operational systems require significant investment and ongoing maintenance but are key to delivering ecological forecasts for societal benefits. Iterative forecasting practices could provide continuous improvement by incorporating evaluation and feedback to overcome the limitations of the imperfect model and incomplete observations to achieve better forecast outcomes and accuracy.
Publisher: CSIRO
Date: 2020
DOI: 10.25919/YX6A-A119
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-03-2021
Publisher: CSIRO
Date: 2016
Publisher: CSIRO
Date: 2016
Publisher: CSIRO
Date: 2012
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 26-11-2018
Publisher: CSIRO
Date: 2021
DOI: 10.25919/D6QD-P002
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-2016
DOI: 10.1111/FOG.12083
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 17-06-2019
DOI: 10.1111/MEC.14734
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2018
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 08-01-2014
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2015
Publisher: Canadian Science Publishing
Date: 05-2012
DOI: 10.1139/F2012-026
Abstract: Despite increased deployment of archival tags on exploited fish species, analytical methods for including archival tag data in fishery assessment models are lacking. We present a method for integrating archival tag data into a spatial tag–recapture model for estimating natural mortality, fishing mortality, abundance, and movement. Archival tags provide important information on fish movement not available from conventional tags that facilitates separation of movement from mortality estimates. Using simulations, we evaluate the benefit of including archival tag data in the model using two model formulations: one with a general spatial structure and one with movement and fishery dynamics based on juvenile southern bluefin tuna (SBT Thunnus maccoyii ). If fish are not tagged in all regions and time periods, then including archival tag data can substantially improve the precision of the fishing mortality and movement estimates. For ex le, with the general spatial structure and specific scenario presented, standard errors of the fishing mortality estimates decreased by an average of 34% (21%) when 25 archival tags were released in addition to 500 (2500) conventional tags in each region and period of tagging, respectively. Furthermore, with the SBT spatial structure, archival tag data were necessary for all parameters to be estimable.
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 23-04-2018
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: 2016
DOI: 10.1016/BS.AMB.2016.04.002
Abstract: Climate influences marine ecosystems on a range of time scales, from weather-scale (days) through to climate-scale (hundreds of years). Understanding of interannual to decadal climate variability and impacts on marine industries has received less attention. Predictability up to 10 years ahead may come from large-scale climate modes in the ocean that can persist over these time scales. In Australia the key drivers of climate variability affecting the marine environment are the Southern Annular Mode, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, each has phases that are associated with different ocean circulation patterns and regional environmental variables. The roles of these drivers are illustrated with three case studies of extreme events-a marine heatwave in Western Australia, a coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and flooding in Queensland. Statistical and dynamical approaches are described to generate forecasts of climate drivers that can subsequently be translated to useful information for marine end users making decisions at these time scales. Considerable investment is still needed to support decadal forecasting including improvement of ocean-atmosphere models, enhancement of observing systems on all scales to support initiation of forecasting models, collection of important biological data, and integration of forecasts into decision support tools. Collaboration between forecast developers and marine resource sectors-fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, bio ersity management, infrastructure-is needed to support forecast-based tactical and strategic decisions that reduce environmental risk over annual to decadal time scales.
Publisher: CSIRO
Date: 2018
DOI: 10.25919/MV56-HX27
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 05-05-2014
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-12-2016
Abstract: DNA metabarcoding is a powerful new tool allowing characterization of species assemblages using high-throughput licon sequencing. The utility of DNA metabarcoding for quantifying relative species abundances is currently limited by both biological and technical biases which influence sequence read counts. We tested the idea of sequencing 50/50 mixtures of target species and a control species in order to generate relative correction factors (RCFs) that account for multiple sources of bias and are applicable to field studies. RCFs will be most effective if they are not affected by input mass ratio or co-occurring species. In a model experiment involving three target fish species and a fixed control, we found RCFs did vary with input ratio but in a consistent fashion, and that 50/50 RCFs applied to DNA sequence counts from various mixtures of the target species still greatly improved relative abundance estimates (e.g. average per species error of 19 ± 8% for uncorrected vs. 3 ± 1% for corrected estimates). To demonstrate the use of correction factors in a field setting, we calculated 50/50 RCFs for 18 harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) prey species (RCFs ranging from 0.68 to 3.68). Applying these corrections to field-collected seal scats affected species percentages from in idual s les (Δ 6.7 ± 6.6%) more than population-level species estimates (Δ 1.7 ± 1.2%). Our results indicate that the 50/50 RCF approach is an effective tool for evaluating and correcting biases in DNA metabarcoding studies. The decision to apply correction factors will be influenced by the feasibility of creating tissue mixtures for the target species, and the level of accuracy needed to meet research objectives.
Publisher: CSIRO
Date: 2016
Publisher: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Date: 2012
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2015
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-09-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-018-32949-3
Abstract: Large scale migrations are a key component of the life history of many marine species. We quantified the annual migration cycle of juvenile southern bluefin tuna ( Thunnus maccoyii SBT) and spatiotemporal variability in this cycle, based on a multi-decadal electronic tagging dataset. Behaviour-switching models allowed for the identification of cohesive areas of residency and classified the temporal sequence of movements within a migration cycle from austral summer foraging grounds in the Great Australian Bight (GAB) to winter foraging grounds in the Indian Ocean and Tasman Sea and back to the GAB. Although specific regions within the Indian Ocean were frequented, in iduals did not always return to the same area in consecutive years. Outward migrations from the GAB were typically longer than return migrations back to the GAB. The timing of in idual arrivals to the GAB, which may be driven by seasonality in prey availability, was more cohesive than the timing of departures from the GAB, which may be subject to the physiological condition of SBT. A valuable fishery for SBT operates in the GAB, as do a number of scientific research programs designed to monitor SBT for management purposes thus, understanding SBT migration to and from the area is of high importance to a number of stakeholders.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2016
Location: Australia
No related grants have been discovered for Paige Eveson.