ORCID Profile
0000-0002-9598-8589
Current Organisations
Chung-Ang University
,
University of Melbourne
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Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2016
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-03-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-019-41103-6
Abstract: A number of transmission network models are available that combine genomic and epidemiological data to reconstruct networks of who infected whom during infectious disease outbreaks. For such models to reliably inform decision-making they must be transparently validated, robust, and capable of producing accurate predictions within the short data collection and inference timeframes typical of outbreak responses. A lack of transparent multi-model comparisons reduces confidence in the accuracy of transmission network model outputs, negatively impacting on their more widespread use as decision-support tools. We undertook a formal comparison of the performance of nine published transmission network models based on a set of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks simulated in a previously free country, with corresponding simulated phylogenies and genomic s les from animals on infected premises. Of the transmission network models tested, Lau’s systematic Bayesian integration framework was found to be the most accurate for inferring the transmission network and timing of exposures, correctly identifying the source of 73% of the infected premises (with 91% accuracy for sources with model support .80). The Structured COalescent Transmission Tree Inference provided the most accurate inference of molecular clock rates. This validation study points to which models might be reliably used to reconstruct similar future outbreaks and how to interpret the outputs to inform control. Further research could involve extending the best-performing models to explicitly represent within-host ersity so they can handle next-generation sequencing data, incorporating additional animal and farm-level covariates and combining predictions using Ensemble methods and other approaches.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 15-09-2022
DOI: 10.1111/AVJ.13195
Abstract: Australian Animal Disease Spread (AADIS) epidemiological simulation modelling of potential foot‐and‐mouth disease outbreaks in the state of Victoria, Australia examined the targeted use of limited vaccine supplies in combination with varying surveillance resources. Updated, detailed estimates of government response costs were prepared based on state level data inputs of required and available resources. Measures of outbreak spread such as duration and numbers of animals removed through depopulation of infected and vaccinated herds from the epidemiological modelling were compared to summed government response costs. This comparison illustrated the trade‐offs between targeted control strategies combining vaccination‐to‐remove and varying surveillance capacities and their corresponding costs. For this intensive cattle and sheep producing region: (1) Targeting vaccination toward intensive production areas or toward specialized cattle operations had outbreak control and response cost advantages similar to vaccination of all species. The median duration was reduced by 27% and response costs by 11%. (2) Adding to the pool of outbreak surveillance resources available further decreased outbreak duration and outbreak response costs. The median duration was reduced by an additional 13% and response costs declined by an additional 8%. (3) Pooling of vaccine resources overcame the very early binding constraints under proportional allocation of vaccines to in idual states with similar reductions in outbreak duration to those with additional surveillance resources. However, government costs rose substantially by over 40% and introduced additional risk of a negative consumer response. Increased knowledge of the outbreak situation obtained from more surveillance led to better‐informed vaccination deployment decisions in the short timeframe they needed to be made.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-01-2022
DOI: 10.1111/AVJ.13141
Abstract: The objective is to estimate the economic benefits of trading zones as part of foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) control measures for limited duration outbreaks. The proposed trading zones for FMD at the state level are determined using multiple tools. Eleven in idual incursion scenarios in six Australian states are simulated within the Australian Animal Disease Spread epidemiological model to identify the potential geographic extent of outbreaks, as well as the number of animals infected and the duration of outbreaks. The disease spread information is used to identify the boundaries of trading zones. The outbreak duration data are combined with historical export data to estimate the share of Australian exports that could be embargoed. The market impacts of the potential export embargoes including changes in equilibrium quantities, prices and revenue are simulated within the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences' AgEmissions partial equilibrium model of Australian agriculture. Results emphasize the importance of jurisdictional and outbreak characteristics in determining trading zones. Should Australia effectively implement trading zones at the state level in response to small FMD outbreaks, the potential reductions of embargoed exports lead to a reduction in estimated producer revenue losses compared with losses under a national embargo. Producer revenue losses are reduced between $3 billion and $9 billion estimated in present value terms over 10 years at a 7% discount rate. Economic analysis of the implications of trading zones identifies additional investments that would be of value to livestock industries.
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 11-08-2021
DOI: 10.3389/FVETS.2021.648003
Abstract: This study examines the potential for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies that incorporate vaccination to manage FMD spread for a range of incursion scenarios across Australia. Stakeholder consultation was used to formulate control strategies and incursion scenarios to ensure relevance to the erse range of Australian livestock production regions and management systems. The Australian Animal Disease Spread model (AADIS) was used to compare nine control strategies for 13 incursion scenarios, including seven control strategies incorporating vaccination. The control strategies with vaccination differed in terms of their approaches for targeting areas and species. These strategies are compared with two benchmark strategies based on st ing out only. Outbreak size and duration were compared in terms of the total number of infected premises, the duration of the control stage of an FMD outbreak, and the number of vaccinated animals. The three key findings from this analysis are as follows: (1) smaller outbreaks can be effectively managed by st ing out without vaccination, (2) the size and duration of larger outbreaks can be significantly reduced when vaccination is used, and (3) different vaccination strategies produced similar reductions in the size and duration of an outbreak, but the number of animals vaccinated varied. Under current international standards for regaining FMD-free status, vaccinated animals need to be removed from the population at the end of the outbreak to minimize trade impacts. We have shown that selective, targeted vaccination strategies could achieve effective FMD control while significantly reducing the number of animals vaccinated.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 15-07-2020
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 11-10-2019
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 22-11-2013
Abstract: Neutrinos are thought to be produced in astrophysical sources outside our solar system but, up until recently, they had only been observed from one supernova in 1987. Aartsen et al. ( 10.1126/science.1242856 see the cover) report data obtained between 2010 and 2012 with the IceCube neutrino detector that reveal the presence of a high-energy neutrino flux containing the most energetic neutrinos ever observed, including 28 events at energies between 30 and 1200 TeV. Although the origin of this flux is unknown, the findings are consistent with expectations for a neutrino population with origins outside the solar system.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2021
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 28-04-2021
DOI: 10.1101/2021.04.27.441714
Abstract: Whilst emergency vaccination may help contain foot-and-mouth disease in a previously FMD-free country, its use complicates post-outbreak surveillance and the recovery of FMD-free status. A structured surveillance program is required that can distinguish between vaccinated and residually infected animals, and provide statistical confidence that the virus is no longer circulating in previously infected areas. Epidemiological models have been well-used to investigate the potential benefits of emergency vaccination during a control progam and when/where/whom to vaccinate in the face of finite supplies of vaccine and personnel. Less well studied are post-outbreak issues such as the management of vaccinated animals and the implications of having used vaccination during surveillance regimes to support proof-of-freedom. This paper presents enhancements to the Australian Animal Disease Model (AADIS) that allow comparisons of different post-outbreak surveillance s ling regimes for establishing proof-of-freedom from FMD. A case study is provided that compares a baseline surveillance s ling regime (derived from current OIE guidelines), with an alternative less intensive s ling regime. It was found that when vaccination was not part of the control program, a reduced s ling intensity significantly reduced the number of s les collected and the cost of the post-outbreak surveillance program, without increasing the risk of missing residual infected herds.
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 19-03-2015
Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Date: 16-07-2021
DOI: 10.1111/TBED.14201
Abstract: Epidemiological models of notifiable livestock disease are typically framed at a national level and targeted for specific diseases. There are inherent difficulties in extending models beyond national borders as details of the livestock population, production systems and marketing systems of neighbouring countries are not always readily available. It can also be a challenge to capture heterogeneities in production systems, control policies, and response resourcing across multiple countries, in a single transboundary model. In this paper, we describe EuFMDiS, a continental-scale modelling framework for transboundary animal disease, specifically designed to support emergency animal disease planning in Europe. EuFMDiS simulates the spread of livestock disease within and between countries and allows control policies to be enacted and resourced on a per-country basis. It provides a sophisticated decision support tool that can be used to look at the risk of disease introduction, establishment and spread control approaches in terms of effectiveness and costs resource management and post-outbreak management issues.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2021
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 04-05-2018
Publisher: Unpublished
Date: 2021
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 12-04-2016
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 21-11-2022
DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2022.2139097
Abstract: Rotavirus infection is a common cause of severe diarrheal disease and a major cause of deaths and hospitalizations among young children. Incidence of rotavirus has declined globally with increasing vaccine coverage. However, it remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries where vaccine access is limited and efficacy is lower. The oral human neonatal vaccine RV3-BB can be safely administered earlier than other vaccines, and recent trials in Indonesia have demonstrated high efficacy. In this study, we use a stochastic in idual-based model of rotavirus transmission and disease to estimate the anticipated population-level impact of RV3-BB following delivery according to either an infant (2, 4, 6 months) and neonatal (0, 2, 4 months) schedule. Using our model, which incorporated an age- and household-structured population and estimates of vaccine efficacy derived from trial data, we found both delivery schedules to be effective at reducing infection and disease. We estimated 95-96% reductions in infection and disease in children under 12 months of age when vaccine coverage is 85%. We also estimate high levels of indirect protection from vaccination, including 78% reductions in infection in adults over 17 years of age. Even for lower vaccine coverage of 55%, we estimate reductions of 84% in infection and disease in children under 12 months of age. While open questions remain about the drivers of observed lower efficacy in low-income settings, our model suggests RV3-BB could be effective at reducing infection and preventing disease in young infants at the population level.
No related grants have been discovered for Chang Hyon Ha.