ORCID Profile
0000-0002-6386-1751
Current Organisation
Australian National University
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Research Topics
In Research Link Australia (RLA), "Research Topics" refer to ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes. These topics are either sourced from ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes listed in researchers' related grants or generated by a large language model (LLM) based on their publications.
Top 5 Research Topics
ANZSRC Field of Research (FoR)
Environmental Management | Land Use and Environmental Planning | Surfacewater Hydrology | Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change | Terrestrial Ecology | Ecology | Ecological Impacts of Climate Change | Ecosystem Function | Environmental Science and Management | Urban and Regional Planning | Ecological Applications | Population, Ecological and Evolutionary Genetics | Community Ecology |
ANZSRC Socio-Economic Objective (SEO)
Natural Hazards in Forest and Woodlands Environments | Forest and Woodlands Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity | Mountain and High Country Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity | Natural Hazards in Urban and Industrial Environments | Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences | Mountain and High Country Land and Water Management | Urban Land Policy | Forest and Woodlands Land Management | Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Mountain and High Country Environments
Related Links
Publications
When can refuges mediate the genetic effects of fire regimes? A simulation study of the effects of topography and weather on neutral and adaptive genetic diversity in fire-prone landscapes
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 16-08-2017
DOI: 10.1111/MEC.14250
Abstract: Understanding how landscape heterogeneity mediates the effects of fire on bio ersity is increasingly important under global changes in fire regimes. We used a simulation experiment to investigate how fire regimes interact with topography and weather to shape neutral and selection-driven genetic ersity under alternative dispersal scenarios, and to explore the conditions under which microrefuges can maintain genetic ersity of populations exposed to recurrent fire. Spatial heterogeneity in simulated fire frequency occurred in topographically complex landscapes, with fire refuges and fire-prone "hotspots" apparent. Interannual weather variability reduced the effect of topography on fire patterns, with refuges less apparent under high weather variability. Neutral genetic ersity was correlated with long-term fire frequency under spatially heterogeneous fire regimes, being higher in fire refuges than fire-prone areas, except under high dispersal or low fire severity (low mortality). This generated different spatial genetic structures in fire-prone and fire-refuge components of the landscape, despite similar dispersal. In contrast, genetic ersity was only associated with time since the most recent fire in flat landscapes without predictable refuges and hotspots. Genetic effects of selection driven by fire-related conditions depended on selection pressure, migration distance and spatial heterogeneity in fire regimes. Allele frequencies at a locus conferring higher fitness under successional environmental conditions followed a pattern of "temporal adaptation" to contemporary conditions under strong selection pressure and high migration. However, selected allele frequencies were correlated with spatial variation in long-term mean fire frequency (relating to environmental predictability) under weak dispersal, low selection pressure and strong spatial heterogeneity in fire regimes.
Exploring the use of economic evaluation in Australian wildland fire management decision-making
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2014
DOI: 10.1071/WF13140
Abstract: Wildland fire managers make daily decisions about ways to allocate scarce resources to meet policy objectives. Making these decisions has become more challenging as the frequency and size of fires increase, as does associated risk to assets and costs of management. There is growing interest in using economic evaluation to inform resource allocation decisions, but little work has examined the economic evaluation needs of wildland fire managers, their current use of economic information and the factors that aid or hinder use. This study examined these issues through a survey of Australian wildland fire managers in fire management and policy roles. We found that despite strong interest in economic evaluation, managers have limited familiarity with most evaluation methods or use of the information derived. Several actions can improve the use and usefulness of economic evaluation for wildland fire managers: first, building capacity of managers to both commission and use economic information second, integrating analysis of market and non-market benefits and costs as part of economic evaluation and third, better integrating economic evaluation with the broader context of decision-making processes.
Unburnt habitat patches are critical for survival and in situ population recovery in a small mammal after fire
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 16-03-2021
Abstract: Fire drives animal population dynamics across many ecosystems. Yet, we still lack an understanding of how most species recover from fire and the effects of fire severity and patchiness on recovery processes. This information is crucial for fire‐mediated bio ersity conservation, particularly as fire regimes change globally. We conducted an experiment to test whether post‐fire recovery is driven by in situ survival or recolonisation, and to determine whether this varies with fires of increasing percentage area burnt (burn cover) and severity. We used the pale field rat Rattus tunneyi as a model, because it represents the extinction process for a suite of mammal species suffering population collapse across Australia's northern savannas. Our treatments spanned a gradient from patchy, low severity fires (simulating early dry season management burns) to thorough, high severity fires (simulating wildfires). We performed capture–mark–recapture, vegetation and aerial surveys before, 6 weeks after and 1 year after fire. Six weeks after fire, pale field rats were only captured in unburnt patches of vegetation, and capture rates were proportional to the amount of unburnt habitat. One year later, both vegetation and pale field rat populations recovered across all sites. However, population recovery after low severity fires was likely achieved through in situ survival and reproduction in unburnt micro‐refuges, compared to recolonisation driving recovery after high severity fires. Synthesis and applications . Pale field rat persistence is strongly dependent on the retention of unburnt habitat patches within fire‐affected areas. Management strategies that increase micro‐refugia within burnt areas may facilitate pale field rat population recovery. Globally, building recovery mechanisms into fire management will be vital for supporting the long‐term persistence of fire‐affected species.
Using alternative soil moisture estimates in the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2017
DOI: 10.1071/WF16217
Abstract: McArthur’s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) incorporates the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI) estimate of soil dryness. Improved approaches for estimating soil moisture now exist, with potential for informing the calculation of FFDI. We evaluated the effect, compared with KBDI, of two alternative methods of estimating soil moisture: the rainfall-based Antecedent Precipitation Index and soil moisture from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity satellite mission. These methods were used to calculate FFDI over a s le period of 5years (2010–14) at seven locations around Australia. The effect of substituting the alternatives for KBDI, and of entirely replacing the Drought Factor (DF) (a measure of fuel availability in FFDI) with the alternatives was explored by studying the effect on magnitude, distribution and timing of FFDI and associated Fire Danger Rating (FDR). Both approaches predicted drier soil conditions than KBDI, resulting in fewer Low–Moderate FDR days and more days of High FDR and above. The alternative methods replacing KBDI had little effect on seasonal patterns of FDR. Of all approaches, replacing DF entirely with the soil moisture alternatives most closely mimicked McArthur’s FFDI. Overall, if alternative measures of soil moisture are adopted for FFDI, the entire replacement of the DF term should be considered.
Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2013
Features associated with effective biodiversity monitoring and evaluation
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2019
Controlled field experiment clarifies the influence of soil moisture on litter moisture content
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2022
World congress highlights need for action
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-12-2007
A comparison of fuel hazard in recently burned and long-unburned forests and woodlands
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2018
DOI: 10.1071/WF18037
Abstract: Fuel hazard is often assumed to increase with fuel age, or the time-since-fire. However, studies on fuel hazard in long-unburned forests are scarce. We measured overall fuel hazard in Eucalyptus forests and woodlands in south-eastern Australia at 81 sites where time-since-fire spans 0.5 years to at least 96 years. Overall fuel hazard was higher in forests and woodlands burned 6–12 years previously than those unburned for at least 96 years. The probability of high, very high or extreme overall fuel hazard – which is an operational threshold considered to equate with almost no chance of wildfire suppression in severe fire-weather – was highest 0.5–12 years post-fire, and lowest where fire had not occurred for at least 96 years. Frequent burning can maintain forest understorey in an early successional ‘shrubby’ state, leading to higher overall fuel hazard than forests where a lack of fire is associated with the senescence of shrubs. Protecting long-unburned sites from fire and managing to transition a larger proportion of forest to a long-unburned state may benefit fuel-hazard management within these forests in the long-term.
Effects of fire frequency on plant species composition of sandstone communities in the Sydney region: Inter-fire interval and time-since-fire
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-1995
Effects of fire frequency on plant species composition of sandstone communities in the Sydney region: Combinations of inter-fire intervals
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 09-1995
Stand boundary effects on obligate seeding Eucalyptus delegatensis regeneration and fuel dynamics following high and low severity fire: Implications for species resilience to recurrent fire
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 15-03-2021
DOI: 10.1111/AEC.13024
Abstract: Increased fire frequency can result in a decline of obligate seeding plants, which rely on re‐seeding for population persistence following canopy scorching fire. The resilience of obligate seeding plants to fire at any point in time depends on plant maturity and the size of plants in relation to potential fire scorch height. We investigated variation in the resilience of post‐fire regenerating Eucalyptus delegatensis subsp. delegatensis (alpine ash) to a short inter‐fire interval at its boundaries with E. fastigata (brown barrel) stands. The resilience of post‐fire E. delegatensis regeneration was modelled across these stand boundaries as a function of the height of the plants, their reproductive maturity and predicted fire behaviour derived from local fuel characteristics. We measured these attributes 14 years following the Canberra 2003 wildfires and stratified study sites by fire severity. The height and reproductive maturity of post‐fire E. delegatensis saplings decreased at stand boundaries with E. fastigata , while fuel was uniformly abundant and capable of supporting canopy scorching fire under mild fire weather conditions. This suggests that E. delegatensis is less resilient to frequent fire in the presence of interspecific competition and other environmental conditions that occur at stand boundaries, which represent the edge of the species’ realised niche. With forecasts for increased fire frequency in south eastern Australia, persistence of E. delegatensis may be greatest in pure stands corresponding to the core of the species’ realised niche, and in moist and sheltered topographic areas that are less prone to frequent canopy scorching fire. Our findings suggest the importance of considering fine‐scale spatial variation in important obligate seeding plant traits when predicting and managing the response of obligate seeding species to frequent fire.
Post‐fire pickings: Large herbivores alter understory vegetation communities in a coastal eucalypt forest
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-2022
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.8828
Abstract: Fire and herbivores alter vegetation structure and function. Future fire activity is predicted to increase, and quantifying changes in vegetation communities arising from post‐fire herbivory is needed to better manage natural environments. We investigated the effects of post‐fire herbivory on understory plant communities in a coastal eucalypt forest in southeastern Australia. We quantified herbivore activity, understory plant ersity, and dominant plant morphology following a wildfire in 2017 using two sizes of exclosures. Statistical analysis incorporated the effect of exclusion treatments, time since fire, and the effect of a previous prescribed burn. Exclusion treatments altered herbivore activity, but time since fire did not. Herbivory reduced plant species richness, ersity, and evenness and promoted the dominance of the most abundant plants within the understory. Increasing time since fire reduced community ersity and evenness and influenced morphological changes to the dominant understory plant species, increasing size and dead material while decreasing abundance. We found the legacy effects of a previous prescribed burn had no effect on herbivores or vegetation within our study. Foraging by large herbivores resulted in a depauperate vegetation community. As post‐fire herbivory can alter vegetation communities, we postulate that management burning practices may exacerbate herbivore impacts. Future fire management strategies to minimize herbivore‐mediated alterations to understory vegetation could include aggregating management burns into larger fire sizes or linking fire management with herbivore management. Restricting herbivore access following fire (planned or otherwise) can encourage a more erse and species‐rich understory plant community. Future research should aim to determine how vegetation change from post‐fire herbivory contributes to future fire risk.
Evaluating benefits and costs of wildland fires: critical review and future applications
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 13-03-2014
Options for reducing house-losses during wildfires without clearing trees and shrubs
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2018
What determines variation in remotely sensed fire severity? Consideration of remote sensing limitations and confounding factors
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 18-03-2022
DOI: 10.1071/WF21131
Abstract: Analyses of the effects of topography, weather, land management, and fuel on fire severity are increasingly common, and generally apply fire severity indices derived from satellite optical remote sensing. However, these indices are commonly interpreted with insufficient appreciation for their limitations and may be inappropriately invoked as representing physical fire effects and fire behaviour. For a large wildfire in southeast Australia, we investigated three considerations for inferring robust insights from fire severity analyses – the potentially confounding influences of pre-fire vegetation height and tall vegetation cover, and the choice of fire severity response variable. Using nonparametric regression, we found that different fire severity indices gave rise to substantially different modelled relationships with commonly invoked environmental predictors, as is consistent with dissimilarities in index design. Further, pre-fire vegetation height was a strong control of fire severity, with equivalent importance to weather. Importantly, strong covariation between vegetation height and environmental predictors suggests that modelled fire severity effects are strongly influenced by variation in vertical distance between flames and vegetation, and this confounds fire behaviour insights. To enable more robust and mechanistic insights into the determinants of fire severity, we recommend greater consideration of the meaning and limitations of optical remote sensing indices.
Natural hazards in Australia: extreme bushfire
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-10-2016
Long-distance spotting potential of bark strips of a ribbon gum (Eucalyptus viminalis)
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2015
DOI: 10.1071/WF15031
Abstract: Firebrands of ribbon bark eucalypt are notorious for igniting spotfires many kilometres ahead of a bushfire. However, no research to date has demonstrated that this bark type can sustain combustion at its terminal velocity for the travel time required. Fifty s les of shed bark of Eucalyptus viminalis of three distinct morphologies were ignited at one end and burned tethered in a vertical wind tunnel at air velocities approximating their terminal velocity. Mean terminal velocity and burnout time for ‘flat plates’, ‘simple cylinders’ and ‘internally convoluted cylinders’ were 5.4 m s–1 and 251 s 5.2 m s–1 and 122 s and 5.8 m s–1 and 429 s. The corresponding maximum burnout times were 785 s, 353 s and 1304 s. One internally convoluted cylinder flamed continuously and consumed its length of 368 mm in 271 s. The maximum burnout time for the internally convoluted cylinders is commensurate with a potential spotting distance exceeding 20 km given a mean wind speed during transport of 60 km h–1. This is the first study in which combustion times exceeding a few minutes have been recorded for this bark morphology, and thus provides some corroboration of the notoriety for long-distance spotting.
The disproportionate importance of long‐unburned forests and woodlands for reptiles
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 17-10-2018
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.4561
Effects of altered fire intervals on critical timber production and conservation values
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 15-03-2021
DOI: 10.1071/WF20129
Abstract: Forests exhibit thresholds in disturbance intervals that influence sustainability of production and natural values including sawlog production, species existence and habitat attributes. Fire is a key disturbance agent in temperate forests and frequency of fire is increasing, threatening sustainability of these forest values. We used mechanistically erse, theoretical fire interval distributions for mountain ash forest in Victoria, Australia, in the recent past and future to estimate the probability of realising: (i) minimum sawlog harvesting rotation time (ii) canopy species maturation and (iii) adequate habitat hollows for fauna. The likelihood of realising fire intervals exceeding these key stand age thresholds diminishes markedly for the future fire regime compared with the recent past. For ex le, we estimate that only one in five future fire intervals will be sufficiently long (~80 years) to grow sawlogs in this forest type, and that the probability of forests developing adequate habitat hollows (~180 years) could be as low as 0.03 (3% of fire intervals). Therefore, there is a need to rethink where sawlogs can be sourced sustainably, such as from fast-growing plantations that can be harvested and then regrown rapidly, and to reserve large areas of existing 80-year-old forest from timber harvesting.
Fire and carbon dynamics under climate change in south-eastern Australia: insights from FullCAM and FIRESCAPE modelling
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2011
DOI: 10.1071/WF09073
Abstract: This study used simulation modelling to investigate fire and carbon dynamics for projected warmer and drier climates in the south-eastern Australian high country. A carbon accounting model FullCAM and the landscape fire regime simulator FIRESCAPE were combined and used to simulate several fire management options under three climate scenarios – the recent climate (1975–2005) a moderate climate projected for 2070 (B1) and a more extreme climate projected for 2070 (A1FI). For warmer and drier climates, model simulations predicted (i) an increase in fire incidence (ii) larger areas burned (iii) higher mean fire intensities (iv) shorter fire cycle lengths (v) a greater proportion of fires burning earlier in the fire season (vi) a reduction in carbon stores (vii) a reduction in carbon sequestration rates and (viii) an increase in the proportion of stored carbon emitted to the atmosphere. Prescribed burning at historical or twice historical levels had no effect on fire or carbon dynamics. In contrast, increasing the initial attack success (a surrogate for suppression) partially offset the adverse effects of warmer and drier climates on fire activity, but not on carbon dynamics. For the south-eastern Australian high country, simulations indicated that fire and carbon dynamics are sensitive to climate change, with simulated fire management only being able to partially offset the adverse effects of warmer and drier climate.
Seed viability of early maturing alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis subsp. delegatensis) in the Australian Alps, south-eastern Australia, and its implications for management under changing fire regim
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2017
DOI: 10.1071/BT17068
Abstract: Eucalyptus delegatensis R.T. Baker subsp. delegatensis is an interval-sensitive, fire-killed eucalypt that dominates large tracts of montane forest in the Australian Alps. Although it has been widely accepted in forest management that E. delegatensis takes 20 years to flower and fruit after stand-replacing fire events, recent observations after high intensity fires in the Australian Alps have shown that early flowering and fruiting is occurring from what can be termed ‘precocious’ in iduals in some areas. In some instances, early flowering and fruit set is occurring within 6 years after stand-replacing fire. One historical study in the Australian Capital Territory had noted that such seed was viable, but we found no reported experiments documenting this or detailing the degree of viability. Here we discuss the results of a germination experiment undertaken on seed collected from Namadgi National Park from early-maturing alpine ash trees. Although at the low end of known viability estimates for E. delegatensis, seed from these in iduals was nonetheless found to be viable, with a mean of 455 (s.d. = 139) germinants per 10 g of chaff and seed mix. We discuss this result in relation to fire management in the Australian Alps and suggest further research that needs to be undertaken to better document and understand the phenomenon.
Research priorities arising from the 2002–2003 bushfire season in south-eastern Australia
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 2005
Comparison of contrasting optical and LiDAR fire severity remote sensing methods in a heterogeneous forested landscape in south-eastern Australia
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 03-04-2022
A fuel moisture content and flammability monitoring methodology for continental Australia based on optical remote sensing
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2018
Representing vapour and capillary rise from the soil improves a leaf litter moisture model
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2022
Exploring the key drivers of forest flammability in wet eucalypt forests using expert-derived conceptual models
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 24-06-2020
Classifying the fire-response traits of plants: How reliable are species-level classifications?
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-2010
The worldwide “wildfire” problem
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-2013
DOI: 10.1890/10-2213.1
Abstract: The worldwide "wildfire" problem is headlined by the loss of human lives and homes, but it applies generally to any adverse effects of unplanned fires, as events or regimes, on a wide range of environmental, social, and economic assets. The problem is complex and contingent, requiring continual attention to the changing circumstances of stakeholders, landscapes, and ecosystems it occurs at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Minimizing adverse outcomes involves controlling fires and fire regimes, increasing the resistance of assets to fires, locating or relocating assets away from the path of fires, and, as a probability of adverse impacts often remains, assisting recovery in the short-term while promoting the adaptation of societies in the long-term. There are short- and long-term aspects to each aspect of minimization. Controlling fires and fire regimes may involve fire suppression and fuel treatments such as prescribed burning or non-fire treatments but also addresses issues associated with unwanted fire starts like arson. Increasing the resistance of assets can mean addressing the design and construction materials of a house or the use of personal protective equipment. Locating or relocating assets can mean leaving an area about to be impacted by fire or choosing a suitable place to live it can also mean the planning of land use. Assisting recovery and promoting adaptation can involve insuring assets and sharing responsibility for preparedness for an event. There is no single, simple, solution. Perverse outcomes can occur. The number of minimizing techniques used, and the breadth and depth of their application, depends on the geographic mix of asset types. Premises for policy consideration are presented.
The relative importance of fine-scale fuel mosaics on reducing fire risk in south-west Tasmania, Australia
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2008
DOI: 10.1071/WF07052
Abstract: In many landscapes, an important fire management objective is to reduce the negative impacts from unplanned fires on people, property and ecological values. In Australia, there exists an inherent assumption that high spatial variability in fire ages and hence fuel loads will have negative effects on both the incidence and spread of subsequent fires, and will enhance ecological values. A recent study using the process-based computer simulation model FIRESCAPE-SWTAS predicted several relationships between prescribed burn treatment levels and spatial patterning and management objectives in south-west Tasmania, Australia. The present study extended this investigation to additionally explore the effects of prescribed burning treatment unit size on unplanned fire incidence and area burned both in the general landscape and specifically in fire-intolerant vegetation. Simulation results suggest that treatment level had the greatest influence on modifying fire effects, whereas treatment unit size had the least effect. The model predicted that all three parameters interacted to determine the mean annual area burnt by unplanned fires. In fire-intolerant vegetation, treatment unit size did not influence the incidence of unplanned fires and the area burnt by unplanned fires in these communities. Where significant differences were evident, fire risk was reduced by higher treatment levels, deterministic spatial patterns of burning units, and smaller burning unit sizes.
Future changes in climatic water balance determine potential for transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 06-2016
The Proximal Drivers of Large Fires: A Pyrogeographic Study
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 03-04-2020
Simulation of prescribed burning strategies in south-west Tasmania, Australia: effects on unplanned fires, fire regimes, and ecological management values
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2006
DOI: 10.1071/WF05076
Abstract: Computer simulation modelling provides a useful approach for determining the trade-offs between the extent of prescribed burning and the long-term impacts of unplanned fires on management values. In the present study, FIRESCAPE-SWTAS, a process-based fire regime and vegetation dynamics model, was used in the World Heritage Area of south-west Tasmania, Australia, to investigate the implications of different prescribed burning treatments on identified management objectives. Treatments included annual prescribed burning of different proportions of the most flammable vegetation community, buttongrass moorlands. Additionally, a proposed strategic burning treatment for this landscape was simulated for comparison with these treatments. Simulations identified the nature of the relationships between the prescribed burn treatment level and the fire size distributions, the mean incidence, and the mean annual areas burnt by unplanned fires, with all three parameters declining with increases in treatment level. The study also indicated that strategically located treatment units were able to enhance the reduction in the fire risk to vegetation species susceptible to fire (fire-intolerant species).
Fire management for biodiversity conservation: Key research questions and our capacity to answer them
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2010
Wildfires, fuel treatment and risk mitigation in Australian eucalypt forests: Insights from landscape-scale simulation
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2012
DOI: 10.1016/J.JENVMAN.2012.03.050
Abstract: Wildfires pose significant risks to people and human infrastructure worldwide. The treatment of fuel in landscapes may alter these risks but the magnitude of this effect on risk is poorly understood. Evidence from Australian Eucalyptus forests suggests that mitigation of risk using prescribed burning as a fuel treatment is partial because weather and fuel dynamics are conducive to regular high intensity fires. We further examine the response of risk to treatment in eucalypt forests using landscape simulation modelling. We model how five key measures of wildfire activity that govern risk to people and property may respond to variations in rate and spatial pattern of prescribed fire. We then model effects of predicted climate change (2050 scenarios) to determine how the response of risk to treatment is likely to be altered in the future. The results indicate that a halving of risk to people and property in these forests is likely to require treatment rates of 7-10% of the area of the landscape per annum. Projections of 2050 weather conditions under climate change further substantially diminished the effect of rate of treatment. A large increase in rates of treatment (i.e. circa. 50% over current levels) would be required to counteract these effects of climate change. Such levels of prescribed burning are unlikely to be financially feasible across eucalypt dominated vegetation in south eastern Australia. Despite policy imperatives to expand fuel treatment, a reduction rather than an elimination of risk will result. Multi-faceted strategies will therefore be required for the management of risk.
The influence of soil moisture on surface and sub-surface litter fuel moisture simulation at five Australian sites
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2021
A classification of landscape fire succession models: spatial simulations of fire and vegetation dynamics
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2004
A New Fire Danger Index Developed by Random Forest Analysis of Remote Sensing Derived Fire Sizes
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 29-09-2022
DOI: 10.3390/FIRE5050152
Abstract: Studies using remote sensing data for fire danger prediction have primarily relied on fire ignitions data to develop fire danger indices (FDIs). However, these data may only represent conditions suitable for ignition but may not represent fire danger conditions causing escalating fire size. The fire-related response variable’s scalability is a key factor that forms a basis for an FDI to include a broader range of fire danger conditions. Remote sensing derived fire size is a scalable fire characteristic encapsulating all possible fire sizes that previously occurred in the landscape, including extreme fire events. Consequently, we propose a new FDI that uses remote sensing derived fire size as a response variable. We computed fire sizes from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument burned area. We applied random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) to develop the FDI for Australia. RF models performed better than LR, and the higher predicted probabilities demonstrated higher chances for ignited fires to be escalated to larger fire sizes at a regional scale across Australia. However, the predicted probabilities cannot be related to the specific range of fire sizes due to data limitations. Further research with higher temporal and spatial resolution data of both the response and predictor variables can help establish a better relationship between a specific range of fire sizes and the predicted probabilities.
Animals as Agents in Fire Regimes
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2020
Contrasting fire responses to climate and management: insights from two Australian ecosystems
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-01-2013
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.12115
Abstract: This study explores effects of climate change and fuel management on unplanned fire activity in ecosystems representing contrasting extremes of the moisture availability spectrum (mesic and arid). Simulation modelling examined unplanned fire activity (fire incidence and area burned, and the area burned by large fires) for alternate climate scenarios and prescribed burning levels in: (i) a cool, moist temperate forest and wet moorland ecosystem in south-west Tasmania (mesic) and (ii) a spinifex and mulga ecosystem in central Australia (arid). Contemporary fire activity in these case study systems is limited, respectively, by fuel availability and fuel amount. For future climates, unplanned fire incidence and area burned increased in the mesic landscape, but decreased in the arid landscape in accordance with predictions based on these limiting factors. Area burned by large fires (greater than the 95th percentile of historical, unplanned fire size) increased with future climates in the mesic landscape. Simulated prescribed burning was more effective in reducing unplanned fire activity in the mesic landscape. However, the inhibitory effects of prescribed burning are predicted to be outweighed by climate change in the mesic landscape, whereas in the arid landscape prescribed burning reinforced a predicted decline in fire under climate change. The potentially contrasting direction of future changes to fire will have fundamentally different consequences for bio ersity in these contrasting ecosystems, and these will need to be accommodated through contrasting, innovative management solutions.
A conceptual framework for predicting temperate ecosystem sensitivity to human impacts on fire regimes
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 29-01-2013
DOI: 10.1111/GEB.12038
Modelling the potential for prescribed burning to mitigate carbon emissions from wildfires in fire-prone forests of Australia
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2012
DOI: 10.1071/WF11023
Abstract: Prescribed fire can potentially reduce carbon emissions from unplanned fires. This potential will differ among ecosystems owing to inherent differences in the efficacy of prescribed burning in reducing unplanned fire activity (or ‘leverage’, i.e. the reduction in area of unplanned fire per unit area of prescribed fire). In temperate eucalypt forests, prescribed burning leverage is relatively low and potential for mitigation of carbon emissions from unplanned fires via prescribed fire is potentially limited. Simulations of fire regimes accounting for non-linear patterns of fuel dynamics for three fuel types characteristic of eucalypt forests in south-eastern Australia supported this prediction. Estimated mean annual fuel consumption increased with diminishing leverage and increasing rate of prescribed burning, even though average fire intensity (prescribed and unplanned fires combined) decreased. The results indicated that use of prescribed burning in these temperate forests is unlikely to yield a net reduction in carbon emissions. Future increases in burning rates under climate change may increase emissions and reduce carbon sequestration. A more detailed understanding of the efficacy of prescribed burning and dynamics of combustible biomass pools is required to clarify the potential for mitigation of carbon emissions in temperate eucalypt forests and other ecosystems.
Repeatability of free-burning fire experiments using heterogeneous forest fuel beds in a combustion wind tunnel
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2016
DOI: 10.1071/WF15068
Abstract: Combustion wind tunnels are often used to investigate the propagation of free-moving fires through solid-phase fuels, typically standardised ‘artificial’ fuel beds. However, the results of such studies are difficult to apply directly to wildland fire situations primarily due to the disparity between the generally uniform artificial fuel and the heterogeneous fuel found in nature. To explore the feasibility of using heterogeneous ‘natural’ fuel beds in subsequent combustion wind tunnel experiments, this study quantified the variability in forward rate of fire spread resulting from the use of heterogeneous fuel beds in a combustion wind tunnel under a given set of burning conditions. The experiment assessed the effects of fuel type and air speed, and controlled for the effects of fuel moisture content, fuel load and fuel particle size. It was found that the variability in rate of spread increased with its mean, but the overall residual variance (σ2e .025, s.e. 0.011) was low compared with the effects of air speed and fuel type. This demonstrates that heterogeneous fuel beds can be used in combustion wind tunnel experiments without introducing a large degree of variability.
Time since fire influences macropod occurrence in a fire‐prone coastal ecosystem
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 13-11-2021
DOI: 10.1111/AEC.13127
Abstract: Knowledge of animal responses to fire is fundamental to wildlife management in fire‐prone ecosystems. Fire can influence the occurrence of large herbivores by altering the structure and composition of vegetation. However, how fire affects herbivore occurrence in many ecosystems is poorly understood. Large herbivores may be attracted to burnt areas due to higher foraging quality. Conversely, herbivores may avoid burnt areas due to heightened predation risk. We tested the influence of vegetation type and fire history variables on the occurrence of macropods at Booderee National Park in south‐eastern Australia. We documented macropod occurrence at 107 long‐term monitoring sites using spotlighting surveys conducted between 2003 and 2019. We modelled relationships between the occurrence of the eastern grey kangaroo ( Macropus giganteus ) and the sw wallaby ( Wallabia bicolor ) with three fire history variables time since fire, fire frequency and burn context (the proportion of the area surrounding each site that was recently burnt), as well as their interaction with vegetation type. We found both macropod species selected recently burnt sites, likely due to a higher abundance of preferred plants at these sites. Increasing fire frequency was associated with a reduced occurrence of the eastern grey kangaroo. The occurrence of both macropod species was significantly higher in forest sites, possibly reflecting higher foraging quality of grass and shrub species compared to woodland, heathland and shrubland sites. We suggest that if fire is used as a management tool, it is important to recognise potential feedbacks from increased foraging pressure from large herbivores. Future fire management will need to avoid burning areas of sensitive vegetation if local herbivores display pyric herbivory responses, and/or avoid small‐scale burns, which may concentrate foraging pressure.
Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: Evidence from five landscapefiresuccession models
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2009
DOI: 10.1071/WF07085
Abstract: The behaviour of five landscape fire models (CAFÉ, FIRESCAPE, LAMOS(HS), LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) was compared in a standardised modelling experiment. The importance of fuel management approach, fuel management effort, ignition management effort and weather in determining variation in area burned and number of edge pixels burned (a measure of potential impact on assets adjacent to fire-prone landscapes) was quantified for a standardised modelling landscape. Importance was measured as the proportion of variation in area or edge pixels burned explained by each factor and all interactions among them. Weather and ignition management were consistently more important for explaining variation in area burned than fuel management approach and effort, which were found to be statistically unimportant. For the number of edge pixels burned, weather and ignition management were generally more important than fuel management approach and effort. Increased ignition management effort resulted in decreased area burned in all models and decreased number of edge pixels burned in three models. The findings demonstrate that year-to-year variation in weather and the success of ignition management consistently prevail over the effects of fuel management on area burned in a range of modelled ecosystems.
Resolving conflicts in fire management using decision theory: asset-protection versus biodiversity conservation
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-2010
Direct and indirect effects of fire on microbial communities in a pyrodiverse dry‐sclerophyll forest
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-05-2022
Abstract: Fire is one of the predominant drivers of the structural and functional dynamics of forest ecosystems. In recent years, novel fire regimes have posed a major challenge to the management of pyro erse forests. While previous research efforts have focused on quantifying the impacts of fire on above‐ground forest bio ersity, how microbial communities respond to fire is less understood, despite their functional significance. Here, we describe the effects of time since fire, fire frequency and their interaction on soil and leaf litter fungal and bacterial communities from the pyro erse, Eucalyptus pilularis forests of south‐eastern Australia. Using structural equation models, we also elucidate how fire can influence these communities both directly and indirectly through biotic–abiotic interactions. Our results demonstrate that fire is a key driver of litter and soil bacterial and fungal communities, with effects most pronounced for soil fungal communities. Notably, recently burnt forest hosted lower abundances of symbiotic ectomycorrhizal fungi and Acidobacteria in the soil, and basidiomycetous fungi and Actinobacteriota in the litter. Compared with low fire frequencies, high fire frequency increased soil fungal plant pathogens, but reduced Actinobacteriota. The majority of fire effects on microbial communities were mediated by fire‐induced changes in litter and soil abiotic properties. For instance, recent and more frequent fire was associated with reduced soil sulphur, which led to an increase in soil fungal plant pathogens and saprotrophic fungi in these sites. Pathogenic fungi also increased in recently burnt forests that had a low fire frequency, mediated by a decline in litter carbon and an increase in soil pH in these sites. Synthesis . Our findings indicate that predicted increases in the frequency of fire may select for specific microbial communities directly and indirectly through ecological interactions, which may have functional implications for plants (increase in pathogens, decrease in symbionts), decomposition rates (declines in Actinobacteriota and Acidobacteriota) and carbon storage (decrease in ectomycorrhizal fungi). In the face of predicted shifts in wildfire regimes, which may exacerbate fire‐induced changes in microbial communities, adaptive fire management and monitoring is required to address the potential functional implications of fire‐altered microbial communities.
The effect of fire on birds of mulga woodland in arid central Australia
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2010
DOI: 10.1071/WF09028
Abstract: The principal ecosystem driver in arid Australia is unpredictable rainfall, but it is hypothesised that fire also plays an important role in determining the distribution of animals. We investigated the effect of fire on birds in mulga (Acacia aneura) woodland in the central Australian arid zone. The study was conducted at Uluru–Kata Tjuta National Park using 63 sites classified into one of three time-since-fire classes: burnt 2002 burnt 1976 and long-unburnt. Birds were s led in the winter and spring of 2005 and 2006 and vegetation structure was measured at all sites. Vegetation structure varied with time-since-fire. The burnt 2002 treatment was an early seral stage of mulga woodland and effectively a grassland. The burnt 1976 and long-unburnt treatments were both woodland, but the long-unburnt treatment had greater canopy cover and height. The bird community in the burnt 2002 treatment was characterised by granivores, whereas that in the burnt 1976 and long-unburnt treatments was characterised by foliar insectivores. All species showed monotonic responses to time-since-fire (i.e. none were at significantly highest density in the burnt 1976 treatment). Fire in mulga woodland changed the vegetation structure and consequently also changed the composition of the bird communities.
Understanding Global Fire Dynamics by Classifying and Comparing Spatial Models of Vegetation and Fire
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Date: 2007
Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 2006
Importance of fuel treatment for limiting moderate-to-high intensity fire: findings from comparative fire modelling
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-08-2016
Relationships between mature trees and fire fuel hazard in Australian forest
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2018
DOI: 10.1071/WF17112
Abstract: Increasing density of mid-storey vegetation since European settlement has been observed in forests and woodlands in several parts of the world and may result in greater fire fuel hazard. This phenomenon is often attributed to a longer interval between fires since European settlement, but may also be influenced by tree removal during the same period. We hypothesised that the number of mature trees in a stand reduces mid-storey vegetation cover and the associated fire fuel hazard through competition. To test this hypothesis, we examined associations between mid-storey cover and fire fuel hazard and the mean diameter of trees within stands of open forest and woodland in south-eastern Australia, a region prone to wildfires. We found that vegetation cover between 2 and 4 m and 4 and 6 m above the ground and two measures of fire fuel hazard were negatively associated with the quadratic mean tree diameter. Our results suggested that the removal of mature trees since European settlement may have triggered tree and shrub regeneration, resulting in higher mid-storey cover and fire fuel hazard. Thus, managing stands for the persistence and replacement of mature trees may contribute to long-term fuel reduction in Australian forests and woodlands.
Influence of fire severity on the regeneration, recruitment and distribution of eucalypts in the Cotter River Catchment, Australian Capital Territory
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-01-2008
Australia Burning
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2003
Abstract: The phenomenon of fire in the Australian landscape traverses many interests and disciplines. At a national level, there is an urgent need for the integration of both the natural and social sciences in the formulation of public policy. With contributions from 30 leading experts, Australia Burning draws together these issues, under the themes: Ecology and the environment Fire behaviour and fire regime science People and property Policy, institutional arrangements and the legal framework Indigenous land and fire management The book examines some of the key questions that relate to the ecology, prediction and management of fire, urban planning, law, insurance, and community issues, including indigenous and non-indigenous concerns. It looks at what we need to know to inform public policy, given the present risks and uncertainty, and explores the avenues for closer integration between science, policy and the community.
Fire regimes of Australia: A pyrogeographic model system
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-01-2013
DOI: 10.1111/JBI.12065
How does ecological disturbance influence genetic diversity?
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2013
DOI: 10.1016/J.TREE.2013.08.005
Abstract: Environmental disturbance underpins the dynamics and ersity of many of the ecosystems of the world, yet its influence on the patterns and distribution of genetic ersity is poorly appreciated. We argue here that disturbance history may be the major driver that shapes patterns of genetic ersity in many natural populations. We outline how disturbance influences genetic ersity through changes in both selective processes and demographically driven, selectively neutral processes. Our review highlights the opportunities and challenges presented by genetic approaches, such as landscape genomics, for better understanding and predicting the demographic and evolutionary responses of natural populations to disturbance. Developing this understanding is now critical because disturbance regimes are changing rapidly in a human-modified world.
Forest fire management, climate change, and the risk of catastrophic carbon losses
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-2013
DOI: 10.1890/13.WB.005
Mapping Live Fuel Moisture Content and Flammability for Continental Australia Using Optical Remote Sensing
Publisher: IEEE
Date: 07-2018
Forest fire fuel through the lens of remote sensing: Review of approaches, challenges and future directions in the remote sensing of biotic determinants of fire behaviour
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2021
More long-unburnt forest will benefit mammals in Australian sub-alpine forests and woodlands
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 02-06-2019
DOI: 10.1111/AEC.12786
Application of Landsat ETM+ and OLI Data for Foliage Fuel Load Monitoring Using Radiative Transfer Model and Machine Learning Method
Publisher: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Date: 2021
Implications of recurrent disturbance for genetic diversity
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-01-2016
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.1948
You own the fuel, but who owns the fire?
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2017
DOI: 10.1071/WF17070
Abstract: In this paper, we argue that the statement ‘Whoever owns the fuel owns the fire’ implies a duty on landowners to manage fuel on their land to reduce the likelihood of bushfires, however started, from spreading to neighbouring properties. However, the notion ‘Whoever owns the fuel owns the fire’ has not been analysed from a legal perspective. This paper reviews Australian law to identify who is legally responsible for fire that starts on privately owned land. We argue that the correct interpretation of existing Australian law is: ‘Whoever owns the ignition owns the fire’ – that is, liability to pay for losses caused by bushfire has always fallen on those that intentionally start a fire, not on the owner of the fuel that sustains the fire. That legal conclusion could have dramatic implications for fire management policies. It will be shown that liability for starting a prescribed burn is clear-cut whereas liability for allowing accumulated fuel loads to contribute to the spread of fire is almost unheard of. As a result, we argue that the law is pushing landowners in a direction away from the policy direction adopted by all Australian governments. After identifying the current legal position, we recommend changes to align the law with the national policy direction.
Robustness of demographic estimates in studies of plant responses to fire
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-1994
Relationship between leaf traits and fire-response strategies in shrub species of a mountainous region of south-eastern Australia
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 12-10-2011
DOI: 10.1093/AOB/MCR263
Prescribed burning: how can it work to conserve the things we value?
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2011
DOI: 10.1071/WF09131
Abstract: Prescribed burning is a commonly applied management tool, and there has been considerable debate over the efficacy of its application. We review data relating to the effectiveness of prescribed burning in Australia. Specifically, we address two questions: (1) to what extent can fuel reduction burning reduce the risk of loss of human life and economic assets posed from wildfires? (2) To what extent can prescribed burning be used to reduce the risk of bio ersity loss? Data suggest that prescribed burning can achieve a reduction in the extent of wildfires however, at such levels, the result is an overall increase in the total area of the landscape burnt. Simulation modelling indicates that fuel reduction has less influence than weather on the extent of unplanned fire. The need to incorporate ecological values into prescribed burning programmes is becoming increasingly important. Insufficient data are available to determine if existing programs have been successful. There are numerous factors that prevent the implementation of better prescribed burning practices most relate to a lack of clearly defined, measurable objectives. An adaptive risk management framework combined with enhanced partnerships between scientists and fire-management agencies is necessary to ensure that ecological and fuel reduction objectives are achieved.
Land management practices associated with house loss in wildfires
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 18-01-2012
Challenges and Needs in Fire Management: A Landscape Simulation Modeling Perspective
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Date: 2011
Biophysical Mechanistic Modelling Quantifies the Effects of Plant Traits on Fire Severity: Species, Not Surface Fuel Loads, Determine Flame Dimensions in Eucalypt Forests
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 16-08-2016
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