ORCID Profile
0000-0002-6812-8786
Current Organisations
University of Cambridge Institute of Manufacturing
,
University of Oxford
,
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Publications
Greenhouse Gas Concentration and Volcanic Eruptions Controlled the Variability of Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Over the Last Millennium
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001566
Strong Nonlinearity of Land Climate‐Carbon Cycle Feedback Under a High CO2 Growth Scenario
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 2023
DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002499
Abstract: Projections of future climate change for given CO 2 and other greenhouse gas emission scenarios depend on the response of global climate‐carbon cycle feedback, which consists of carbon‐concentration feedback (e.g., CO 2 physiology effect on land carbon sink) and carbon‐climate feedback (e.g., CO 2 radiative effect on land carbon sink). Previous studies have assumed no significant interaction between these two feedbacks within the Earth system. This study quantifies the interaction of these two feedbacks, or the nonlinear feedback on land using the fully, biogeochemically, and radiatively coupled simulations under a 1% yr −1 CO 2 increase path from nine Earth system models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results show that the nonlinear feedback is 1.64 ± 2.92 × 10 −2 GtC ppm −1 K −1 at the end of 140‐year simulation with a quadrupling CO 2 (4 × CO 2 ), where its strength is 11% ± 18% of the carbon‐concentration feedback or −27% ± 49% of the carbon‐climate feedback on land. Compared to previous assumptions that did not consider this interaction, the nonlinear feedback contributes about 8% ± 12% of the land carbon increase accumulated at the 4 × CO 2 . The nonlinear feedback largely results from the combined effect of increased CO 2 ‐induced additional fertilization effect on warming‐induced additional leaf area index and vegetation productivity over the Northern Hemisphere. The magnitude of the nonlinear feedback on land decreases with an increase in atmospheric CO 2 or warming under the high emission scenario. This study highlights the significance of land nonlinear climate‐carbon cycle feedback in increasing land carbon sink and slowing down future climate change.
Nutrient Limitations Lead to a Reduced Magnitude of Disequilibrium in the Global Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021JG006764
Abstract: The terrestrial carbon (C) cycle is shifting to a state of dynamic disequilibrium under a rapid global climate change. However, the magnitude of such disequilibrium is inherently hard to measure directly. Abundant studies have revealed that the availability of nutrients, particularly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), constrains ecosystem productivity and carbon stocks across the globe. However, whether and how nutrient limitation affects the disequilibrium magnitude of the terrestrial C cycle ( X p ) has never been evaluated. Here, we developed an approach by combining a process‐based numerical model and an analytical framework to evaluate the role of nutrient limitation on X p . We found that nutrient limitation did have significant impacts on the X p . Over the modeled period of 1901–2013, absolute change in X p was 497.6 PgC under the C‐only run, while it decreased to 155.6 and 124.3 PgC under N and NP limitations, respectively. To understand the underlying reasons, we further disaggregated the changes of X p into changes in steady‐state C storage and transit C storage with the former being decomposed into a productivity‐driven change, an ecosystem‐C‐residence‐time‐driven ( τ E ‐driven) change, and a change induced by productivity‐ τ E interactions. We found that nutrient constrained the increase in X p primarily by d ening the productivity‐driven changes in the steady‐state C storage. Reductions in the productivity‐driven term under N and NP limitations accounted for 94.7% and 94.9%, respectively, of the reductions in the steady‐state C storage. These results indicate that nutrient limitations have profound impacts on future climate‐biosphere feedback by reducing the disequilibrium magnitude of the terrestrial C cycle.
Bushfire‐Induced Water Balance Changes Detected by a Modified Paired Catchment Method
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-10-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021WR031013
Abstract: While bushfires are often regarded as a vital trigger that alters the partitioning of hydrological fluxes, their role in water balance changes remains poorly quantified, especially in regions where the impacts of frequent bushfires and climate variability overlap. Here, we estimated the fire‐induced water balance changes based on a modified paired catchment method that considers the partial effect of annual precipitation differences. In the application for eight forested catchments impacted by the 2009 Victorian Bushfires with multiple burned areas (12%–89%), we found that evapotranspiration declined by 33 ± 20 mm yr −1 (mean ± standard deviation) and streamflow increased by 68 ± 32 mm yr −1 during the post‐fire decade. For the interannual changes within this decade, the decline in evapotranspiration due to fires gradually recovered after the first year since bushfires, while the increase in streamflow mostly peaked in the second or third year and diminished in subsequent years. We surmised that such asynchronous responses of the two fluxes to bushfires occurred with the initial increase and the later decrease in terrestrial water storage. Averaged for the post‐fire decade, there seems to be an overall decline in terrestrial water storage for burned catchments relative to unburned catchments.
Uncertainty and Emergent Constraints on Enhanced Ecosystem Carbon Stock by Land Greening
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2022MS003397
Abstract: Significant land greening since the 1980s has been detected through satellite observation, forest inventory, and Earth system modeling. However, whether and to what extent global land greening enhances ecosystem carbon stock remains uncertain. Here, using 40 global models, we first detected a positive correlation between the terrestrial ecosystem carbon stock and leaf area index (LAI) over time. Then, we diagnose the source of uncertainty of simulated the sensitivities of ecosystem carbon stock to LAI based on a traceability analysis. We found that the sensitivity of gross primary productivity (GPP) to LAI is the largest contributor to the model uncertainty in more than 60% of the vegetated grids. Using the ensemble of four long‐term global data sets of GPP and three satellite LAI products from 1982 to 2014, we provided an emergent constraint on the ecosystem carbon stock increase as 0.75 ± 0.46 kg C m −2 per unit LAI over global land areas. Furthermore, the biome‐based results reveal that the tropical forest regions have the highest inter‐model variation and model bias. Overall, this study identifies the uncertainty source and provides constrained estimates of the greening effect on ecosystem carbon stock at the global scale.
Dominant regions and drivers of the variability of the global land carbon sink across timescales
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-05-2018
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.14275
Abstract: Net biome productivity (NBP) dominates the observed large variation of atmospheric CO
Plant Feedback Aggravates Soil Organic Carbon Loss Associated With Wind Erosion in Northwest China
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018JG004804
A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-05-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-021-22392-W
Abstract: The climate-carbon cycle feedback is one of the most important climate- lifying feedbacks of the Earth system, and is quantified as a function of carbon-concentration feedback parameter ( β ) and carbon-climate feedback parameter ( γ ). However, the global climate- lifying effect from this feedback loop (determined by the gain factor, g ) has not been quantified from observations. Here we apply a Fourier analysis-based carbon cycle feedback framework to the reconstructed records from 1850 to 2017 and 1000 to 1850 to estimate β and γ . We show that the β -feedback varies by less than 10% with an average of 3.22 ± 0.32 GtC ppm −1 for 1880–2017, whereas the γ -feedback increases from −33 ± 14 GtC K −1 on a decadal scale to −122 ± 60 GtC K −1 on a centennial scale for 1000–1850. Feedback analysis further reveals that the current lification effect from the carbon cycle feedback is small ( g is 0.01 ± 0.05), which is much lower than the estimates by the advanced Earth system models ( g is 0.09 ± 0.04 for the historical period and is 0.15 ± 0.08 for the RCP8.5 scenario), implying that the future allowable CO 2 emissions could be 9 ± 7% more. Therefore, our findings provide new insights about the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedback and about observational constraints on models for projecting future climate.
CO2 fertilization is spatially distinct from stomatal conductance reduction in controlling ecosystem water-use efficiency increase
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 05-2022
Abstract: It is well known that global ecosystem water-use efficiency (EWUE) has noticeably increased over the last several decades. However, it remains unclear how in idual environmental drivers contribute to EWUE changes, particularly from CO 2 fertilization and stomatal suppression effects. Using a satellite-driven water–carbon coupling model—Penman–Monteith–Leuning version 2 (PML-V2), we quantified in idual contributions from the observational drivers (atmospheric CO 2 , climate forcing, leaf area index (LAI), albedo and emissivity) across the globe over 1982–2014. The PML-V2 was well-calibrated and showed a good performance for simulating EWUE (with a determination coefficient ( R 2 ) of 0.56) compared to observational annual EWUE over 1982–2014 derived from global 95 eddy flux sites from the FLUXNET2015 dataset. Our results showed that global EWUE increasing trend (0.04 ± 0.004 gC mm −1 H 2 O decade −1 ) was largely contributed by increasing CO 2 (51%) and LAI (20%), but counteracted by climate forcing (−26%). Globally, the CO 2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis (23%) was similar to the CO 2 suppression effect on stomatal conductance (28%). Spatially, the fertilization effect dominated EWUE trend over semi-arid regions while the stomatal suppression effect controlled over tropical forests. These findings improve understanding of how environmental factors affect the long-term change of EWUE, and can help policymakers for water use planning and ecosystem management.
Linear and nonlinear effects of dominant drivers on the trends in global and regional land carbon uptake: 1959 to 2013
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 25-02-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067162
Framework of an Expert System for Maturity Analysis in Industry 4.0: Implementation Roadmap Focused on SMEs
Publisher: Springer Nature Switzerland
Date: 2023
Related Organisations
University Of Manchester
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
University Of Cambridge Institute Of Manufacturing
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
National Research University Higher School Of Economics
Location: Russian Federation
University Of Exeter
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
University Of Oxford
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Institute Of Geographic Sciences And Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy Of Sciences
Location: China
Related Funding Activities
No related grants have been discovered for Nikolai Kazantsev.