ORCID Profile
0000-0002-4896-0794
Current Organisation
Universitat de les Illes Balears
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Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-03-2021
DOI: 10.1002/QJ.4008
Abstract: During the last decade, the replacement of static climatological forecast error covariance models with hybrid error covariance models that linearly combine localised ensemble covariances with static climatological error covariances has led to significant forecast improvements at several major forecasting centres. Here, a deeper understanding of why the hybrid's superficially ad hoc mix of ensemble‐based and climatological covariances yields such significant improvements is pursued. In practice, ensemble covariances are not equal to the true flow‐dependent forecast error covariance matrix. Here, the relationship between actual forecast error covariance and the corresponding ensemble covariance is empirically demonstrated. Using a simplified global circulation model and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), the covariance of the set of actual forecast errors corresponding to ensemble covariances close to a fixed target value is computed. By doing this for differing target values, an estimate of the actual forecast error covariance as a function of ensemble covariance is obtained. A demonstration that the hybrid is a much better approximation to this estimate than either the static climatological covariance or the localised ensemble covariance is given. The empirical estimate has two features that current hybrid error covariance models fail to represent: (i) The weight given to the static covariance matrix is an increasing function of the horizontal separation distance of the covarying model variables, and (ii) for small ensemble sizes and ensemble covariances near zero but negative, the actual forecast error covariance is a decreasing function of increasing ensemble covariance. While the first finding has been anticipated by other authors, the second finding has not been anticipated, as far as the authors are aware. Here, (ii) is hypothesised to be a consequence of spurious s le correlations and variances associated with reduced ensembles. Consistent with this hypothesis, the non‐monotonicity of this relationship is almost eliminated by quadrupling the ensemble size.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2017
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-2017
Abstract: On 12 October 2007, several flash floods affected the Valencia region, eastern Spain, with devastating impacts in terms of human, social, and economic losses. An enhanced modeling and forecasting of these extremes, which can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Mediterranean, is one of the fundamental motivations of the international Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) program. The predictability bounds set by multiple sources of hydrological and meteorological uncertainty require their explicit representation in hydrometeorological forecasting systems. By including local convective precipitation systems, short-range ensemble prediction systems (SREPSs) provide a state-of-the-art framework to generate quantitative discharge forecasts and to cope with different sources of external-scale (i.e., external to the hydrological system) uncertainties. The performance of three distinct hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPSs) for the small-sized Serpis River basin is examined as a support tool for early warning and mitigation strategies. To this end, the Flash-Flood Event–Based Spatially Distributed Rainfall–Runoff Transformation–Water Balance (FEST-WB) model is driven by ground stations to examine the hydrological response of this semiarid and karstic catchment to heavy rains. The use of a multisite and novel calibration approach for the FEST-WB parameters is necessary to cope with the high nonlinearities emerging from the rainfall–runoff transformation and heterogeneities in the basin response. After calibration, FEST-WB reproduces with remarkable accuracy the hydrological response to intense precipitation and, in particular, the 12 October 2007 flash flood. Next, the flood predictability challenge is focused on quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). In this regard, three SREPS generation strategies using the WRF Model are analyzed. On the one side, two SREPSs accounting for 1) uncertainties in the initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) and 2) physical parameterizations are evaluated. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is also designed to test the ability of ensemble data assimilation methods to represent key mesoscale uncertainties from both IC and subscale processes. Results indicate that accounting for ersity in the physical parameterization schemes provides the best probabilistic high-resolution QPFs for this particular flash flood event. For low to moderate precipitation rates, EnKF and pure multiple physics approaches render undistinguishable accuracy for the test situation at larger scales. However, only the multiple physics QPFs properly drive the HEPS to render the most accurate flood warning signals. That is, extreme precipitation values produced by these convective-scale precipitation systems anchored by complex orography are better forecast when accounting just for uncertainties in the physical parameterizations. These findings contribute to the identification of ensemble strategies better targeted to the most relevant sources of uncertainty before flash flood situations over small catchments.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2019
No related grants have been discovered for DIEGO SAÚL CARRIÓ CARRIÓ.