ORCID Profile
0000-0001-5133-7170
Current Organisations
Norwegian Institute of Public Health
,
University of Oslo
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Publisher: Center for Open Science
Date: 12-09-2022
Abstract: How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. Following provision of historical trend data on the domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1 N=86 teams/359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts based on new data six months later (Tournament 2 N=120 teams/546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than simple statistical models (historical means, random walk, or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a s le from the general public (N=802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models, and based predictions on prior data.
Publisher: American Speech Language Hearing Association
Date: 10-08-2020
DOI: 10.1044/2020_JSLHR-19-00286
Abstract: This article explored the predictive values of three main language delay (LD) trajectories (i.e., persistent, late onset, and transient) across 3–5 years on poor literacy at 8 years. Additionally, the effect of gender was assessed, using both gender-neutral and gender-specific thresholds. The data comprised mother-reported questionnaire data for 8,371 children in the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study. Analyses were conducted using binary logistic regression in SPSS to make predictions about risk. LD reported at preschool age was associated with excess risk of poor literacy at 8 years with odds ratios ranging from 3.19 to 9.75 dependent on trajectory, persistent LD being the strongest predictor. The odds ratio of transient LD was similar to that of late-onset LD. Gender was not found to play an important role in the association between oral language and literacy, as the gender difference disappeared when gender-specific deficit criterion was used. Our study supports the longitudinal association between preschool oral language and school-aged literacy skills and highlights the importance of different LD trajectories across preschool ages in predicting later literacy. Furthermore, practitioners are recommended to consider gender-specific cutoffs in relation to language and literacy measures.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 17-07-2021
DOI: 10.1111/JOMF.12789
Abstract: The aim of this study was to increase the knowledge about how the initial Covid‐19 lockdown influenced parental functioning in vulnerable families. The Covid‐19 pandemic has caused major changes to family life. Using a natural experiment design can potentially adjudicate on former inconclusive findings about the effects of lockdown on parental functioning in vulnerable families. Responses from parents in a s le of potentially vulnerable families in Norway were ided into a lockdown group if participating at baseline and during the initial Covid‐19 lockdown ( n = 820 responses) or into a control group if participating at baseline and before lockdown ( n = 1368 responses). Mixed model regression analyses were used to mimic a wait‐list design investigating direct lockdown effects on mental health, parenting stress, and three aspects of interparental conflicts, as well as moderation effects. The lockdown group showed significantly higher levels of parenting stress compared with the control group, but no aversive lockdown effect on mental health or destructive conflicts were found. In fact, decreased levels of verbal aggression and child involvement in conflict were found during lockdown among parents living apart. Pre‐existing financial problems and conflict levels, age of youngest child, and parent gender did not moderate the lockdown effects. The initial lockdown did not seem to adversely affect parental functioning, beyond increased parenting stress. Caution should be taken when generalizing the findings as child effects and long‐term lockdown effects were not investigated.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 26-09-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-02-2023
No related grants have been discovered for Espen Roysamb.