Marcel Cardillo

Death in the slow lane

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Date: 10-2002

DOI: 10.1038/419440A

Adapting to extremes: Reconstructing evolution in response to changing climate over time and space in the diverse Australian plant genus Acacia

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 15-03-2022

DOI: 10.1111/JBI.14339

Abstract: Macroevolutionary analysis is increasingly being used to study bio ersity responses to climate change, for ex le by using phylogenetic node ages to infer periods of ersification, or phylogenetic reconstruction of traits to infer adaptation to particular stresses. Here we apply a recently developed macroevolutionary method to investigate the responses of a erse plant genus, Acacia , to increasing aridity and salinity in Australia from the Miocene to the present. We ask whether increase in tolerance of aridity and salinity coincided with periods of aridification, and if it allowed the radiation of Acacia into a wide range of niches. Acacia. Australia. We applied the Niche Evolution Model (NEMo), which combines environmental (or ecological) niche modelling (ENM) with phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) in a single statistical framework, to a large database of Acacia presence‐only records and presence–absence survey sites in order to infer current environmental tolerances of Australia Acacia species and reconstruct the evolution of environmental tolerance to increasing aridity and salinity. We find that patterns in evolution of Acacia, over time and across different habitat types, are consistent with the aridification history of Australia and suggests substantial ability to adapt to high aridity and salinity. Our results suggest that many Acacia lineages have been able to exploit new environments created during the aridification of Australia through evolution of environmental tolerance, resulting in their current dominance of many habitats across the continent. This study demonstrates that phylogenetic studies of the evolution of responses to changing environment can move beyond the application of simple trait‐based models, allowing the underlying processes of speciation, adaptation and dispersal to be explicitly modelled in a macroecological and macroevolutionary context.

The predictability of extinction: biological and external correlates of decline in mammals

Publisher: The Royal Society

Date: 26-03-2008

DOI: 10.1098/RSPB.2008.0179

Abstract: Extinction risk varies among species, and comparative analyses can help clarify the causes of this variation. Here we present a phylogenetic comparative analysis of species-level extinction risk across nearly the whole of the class Mammalia. Our aims were to examine systematically the degree to which general predictors of extinction risk can be identified, and to investigate the relative importance of different types of predictors (life history, ecological, human impact and environmental) in determining extinction risk. A single global model explained 27.3% of variation in mammal extinction risk, but explanatory power was lower for region-specific models (median R 2 =0.248) and usually higher for taxon-specific models (median R 2 =0.383). Geographical range size, human population density and latitude were the most consistently significant predictors of extinction risk, but otherwise there was little evidence for general, prescriptive indicators of high extinction risk across mammals. Our results therefore support the view that comparative models of relatively narrow taxonomic scope are likely to be the most precise.

Phylogenetic patterns in the geographic distributions of birds support the tropical conservatism hypothesis

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 08-09-2015

DOI: 10.1111/GEB.12370

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)

Date: 13-07-2004

DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PBIO.0020197

The delayed rise of present-day mammals

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Date: 07-09-2030

DOI: 10.1038/NATURE05634

Abstract: Did the end-Cretaceous mass extinction event, by eliminating non-avian dinosaurs and most of the existing fauna, trigger the evolutionary radiation of present-day mammals? Here we construct, date and analyse a species-level phylogeny of nearly all extant Mammalia to bring a new perspective to this question. Our analyses of how extant lineages accumulated through time show that net per-lineage ersification rates barely changed across the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary. Instead, these rates spiked significantly with the origins of the currently recognized placental superorders and orders approximately 93 million years ago, before falling and remaining low until accelerating again throughout the Eocene and Oligocene epochs. Our results show that the phylogenetic 'fuses' leading to the explosion of extant placental orders are not only very much longer than suspected previously, but also challenge the hypothesis that the end-Cretaceous mass extinction event had a major, direct influence on the ersification of today's mammals.

Clarifying the relationship between body size and extinction risk in amphibians by complete mapping of model space

Publisher: The Royal Society

Date: 03-02-2021

DOI: 10.1098/RSPB.2020.3011

Abstract: In vertebrates, large body size is often a key diagnostic feature of species threatened with extinction. However, in hibians the link between body size and extinction risk is highly uncertain, with previous studies suggesting positive, negative, u-shaped, or no relationship. Part of the reason for this uncertainty is ‘researcher degrees of freedom’: the subjectivity and selectivity in choices associated with specifying and fitting models. Here, I clarify the size–threat association in hibians using Specification Curve Analysis, an analytical approach from the social sciences that attempts to minimize this problem by complete mapping of model space. I find strong support for prevailing negative associations between body size and threat status, the opposite of patterns typical in other vertebrates. This pattern is largely explained by smaller species having smaller geographic ranges, but smaller hibian species also appear to lack some of the life-history advantages (e.g. higher reproductive output) that are often assumed to ‘protect’ small species in other taxa. These results highlight the need for a renewed conservation focus on the smallest species of the world's most threatened class of vertebrates, as aquatic habitats become increasingly degraded by human activity.

Spatiophylogenetic modelling of extinction risk reveals evolutionary distinctiveness and brief flowering period as threats in a hotspot plant genus

Publisher: The Royal Society

Date: 06-05-2020

DOI: 10.1098/RSPB.2019.2817

Abstract: Comparative models used to predict species threat status can help identify the diagnostic features of species at risk. Such models often combine variables measured at the species level with spatial variables, causing multiple statistical challenges, including phylogenetic and spatial non-independence. We present a novel Bayesian approach for modelling threat status that simultaneously deals with both forms of non-independence and estimates their relative contribution, and we apply the approach to modelling threat status in the Australian plant genus Hakea. We find that after phylogenetic and spatial effects are accounted for, species with greater evolutionary distinctiveness and a shorter annual flowering period are more likely to be threatened. The model allows us to combine information on evolutionary history, species biology and spatial data, calculate latent extinction risk (potential for non-threatened species to become threatened), estimate the most important drivers of risk for in idual species and map spatial patterns in the effects of different predictors on extinction risk. This could be of value for proactive conservation decision-making based on the early identification of species and regions of potential conservation concern.

Larger plants promote a greater diversity of symbiotic nitrogen-fixing soil bacteria associated with an Australian endemic legume

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 30-10-2018

DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13083

Ecological interactions shape the evolution of flower color in communities across a temperate biodiversity hotspot

Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)

Date: 06-2021

DOI: 10.1002/EVL3.225

Abstract: Processes driving the ergence of floral traits may be integral to the extraordinary richness of flowering plants and the assembly of erse plant communities. Several models of pollinator-mediated floral evolution have been proposed floral ergence may (i) be directly involved in driving speciation or may occur after speciation driven by (ii) drift or local adaptation in allopatry or (iii) negative interactions between species in sympatry. Here, we generate predictions for patterns of trait ergence and community assembly expected under these three models, and test these predictions in Hakea (Proteaceae), a erse genus in the Southwest Australian bio ersity hotspot. We quantified functional richness for two key floral traits (pistil length and flower color), as well as phylogenetic distances between species, across ecological communities, and compared these to patterns generated from null models of community assembly. We also estimated the statistical relationship between rates of trait evolution and lineage ersification across the phylogeny. Patterns of community assembly suggest that flower color, but not floral phenology or morphology, or phylogenetic relatedness, is more ergent in communities than expected. Rates of lineage ersification and flower color evolution were negatively correlated across the phylogeny and rates of flower colour evolution were positively related to branching times. These results support a role for ersity-dependent species interactions driving floral ergence during the Hakea radiation, contributing to the development of the extraordinary species richness of southwest Australia.

The ecological drivers of variation in global language diversity

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Date: 03-05-2019

DOI: 10.1038/S41467-019-09842-2

Abstract: Language ersity is distributed unevenly over the globe. Intriguingly, patterns of language ersity resemble bio ersity patterns, leading to suggestions that similar mechanisms may underlie both linguistic and biological ersification. Here we present the first global analysis of language ersity that compares the relative importance of two key ecological mechanisms – isolation and ecological risk – after correcting for spatial autocorrelation and phylogenetic non-independence. We find significant effects of climate on language ersity, consistent with the ecological risk hypothesis that areas of high year-round productivity lead to more languages by supporting human cultural groups with smaller distributions. Climate has a much stronger effect on language ersity than landscape features, such as altitudinal range and river density, which might contribute to isolation of cultural groups. The association between bio ersity and language ersity appears to be an incidental effect of their covariation with climate, rather than a causal link between the two.

A novel approach for global mammal extinction risk reduction

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 24-02-2012

DOI: 10.1111/J.1755-263X.2011.00219.X

Geographic bias in citation rates of conservation research

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 27-03-2015

DOI: 10.1111/COBI.12489

Abstract: We investigated whether the impact of conservation science is greater for research conducted in countries with more pressing conservation problems. We quantified research impact for 231 countries based on 2 citation metrics (mean cites per paper and h index) and fitted models predicting research impact based on number of threatened bird and mammal species (as a measure of conservation importance of a country) and a range of demographic variables. Citation rates of conservation research increased as a country's conservation need increased and as human population, quality of governance, and wealth increased. Even after accounting for these factors, citation rates among regions and countries within regions varied significantly. The conservation research community needs to consider ways to begin addressing the entrenched disadvantages some countries have when it comes to initiating projects and producing high-quality research.

Analysing patterns of spatial and niche overlap among species at multiple resolutions

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 04-05-2016

DOI: 10.1111/GEB.12455

Body Size and Risk of Extinction in Australian Mammals

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 20-10-2001

DOI: 10.1046/J.1523-1739.2001.00286.X

Reconstructing the Geography of Speciation from Contemporary Biodiversity Data

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Date: 02-2019

DOI: 10.1086/701125

Abstract: Inferring the geographic mode of speciation could help reveal the evolutionary and ecological mechanisms that underlie the generation of bio ersity. Comparative methods have sought to reconstruct the geographic speciation history of clades, using data on phylogeny and species geographic ranges. However, inference from comparative methods has been limited by uncertainty over whether contemporary bio ersity data retain the historic signal of speciation. We constructed a process-based simulation model to determine the influence of speciation mode and postspeciation range evolution on current bio ersity patterns. The simulations suggest that the signal of speciation history remains detectable in species distributions and phylogeny, even when species ranges have evolved substantially through time. We extracted this signal by using a combination of summary statistics that had good power to distinguish speciation modes and then used these statistics to infer the speciation history of 30 plant and animal clades. The results point to broad taxonomic patterns in the modes of speciation, with strongest support for founder speciation in mammals and birds and strongest support for sympatric speciation in plants. Our model and analyses show that broad-scale comparative methods can be a powerful complementary approach to more focused genomic analyses in the study of the patterns and mechanisms of speciation.

Links between language diversity and species richness can be confounded by spatial autocorrelation

Publisher: The Royal Society

Date: 22-06-2015

DOI: 10.1098/RSPB.2014.2986

Geographic range size, life history and rates of diversification in Australian mammals

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 10-02-2003

DOI: 10.1046/J.1420-9101.2003.00513.X

Abstract: What causes species richness to vary among different groups of organisms? Two hypotheses are that large geographical ranges and fast life history either reduce extinction rates or raise speciation rates, elevating a clade's rate of ersification. Here we present a comparative analysis of these hypotheses using data on the phylogenetic relationships, geographical ranges and life history of the terrestrial mammal fauna of Australia. By comparing species richness patterns to null models, we show that species are distributed nonrandomly among genera. Using sister-clade comparisons to control for clade age, we then find that faster ersification is significantly associated with larger geographical ranges and larger litters, but there is no evidence for an effect of body size or age at first breeding on ersification rates. We believe the most likely explanation for these patterns is that larger litters and geographical ranges increase ersification rates because they buffer species from extinction. We also discuss the possibility that positive effects of litter size and range size on ersification rates result from elevated speciation rates.

Phylogeny and co-occurrence of mammal species on Southeast Asian islands

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 05-2010

DOI: 10.1111/J.1466-8238.2010.00537.X

Latent extinction risk and the future battlegrounds of mammal conservation

Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Date: 06-03-2006

DOI: 10.1073/PNAS.0510541103

Abstract: Global conservation prioritization usually emphasizes areas with highest species richness or where many species are thought to be at imminent risk of extinction. However, these strategies may overlook areas where many species have biological traits that make them particularly sensitive to future human impact but are not yet threatened because such impact is currently low. In this article, we identify such areas for the world’s mammals using latent extinction risk, the discrepancy between a species’ current extinction risk and that predicted from models on the basis of biological traits. Species with positive latent risk are currently less threatened than their biology would suggest, usually because they inhabit regions or habitats still comparatively unmodified by human activity. Using large new geographic, biological, and phylogenetic databases for nearly 4,000 mammal species, we map the global geographic distribution of latent risk to reveal areas where the mammal fauna is still relatively unthreatened but has high inherent sensitivity to disturbance. These hotspots include large areas such as the Nearctic boreal forests and tundra that are unrepresented in most current prioritization schemes, as well as high-bio ersity areas such as the island arc from Indonesia to the south Pacific. Incorporating latent extinction risk patterns into conservation planning could help guard against future bio ersity loss by anticipating and preventing species declines before they begin.

A comparison of current and reconstructed historic geographic range sizes as predictors of extinction risk in Australian mammals

Publisher: Elsevier BV

Date: 02-2013

DOI: 10.1016/J.BIOCON.2012.08.014

The phylogeny and biogeography of Hakea (Proteaceae) reveals the role of biome shifts in a continental plant radiation

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 23-06-2017

DOI: 10.1111/EVO.13276

Abstract: The frequency of evolutionary biome shifts during ersification has important implications for our ability to explain geographic patterns of plant ersity. Recent studies present several ex les of biome shifts, but whether frequencies of biome shifts closely reflect geographic proximity or environmental similarity of biomes remains poorly known. We explore this question by using phylogenomic methods to estimate the phylogeny of Hakea, a erse Australian genus occupying a wide range of biomes. Model-based estimation of ancestral regions indicates that Hakea began ersifying in the Mediterranean biome of southern Australia in the Middle Eocene-Early Oligocene, and dispersed repeatedly into other biomes across the continent. We infer around 47 shifts between biomes. Frequencies of shifts between pairs of biomes are usually similar to those expected from their geographic connectedness or climatic similarity, but in some cases are substantially higher or lower than expected, perhaps reflecting how readily key physiological traits can be modified to adapt lineages to new environments. The history of frequent biome-shifting is reflected in the structure of present-day assemblages, which tend to be more phylogenetically erse than null-model expectations. The case of Hakea demonstrates that the radiation of large plant clades across wide geographic areas need not be constrained by dispersal limitation or conserved adaptations to particular environments.

Disappearing forests and biodiversity loss: which areas should we protect?

Publisher: Commonwealth Forestry Association

Date: 06-2006

DOI: 10.1505/IFOR.8.2.251

Erratum: The delayed rise of present-day mammals

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Date: 11-2008

DOI: 10.1038/NATURE07347

Supertrees Are a Necessary Not-So-Evil: A Comment on Gatesy et al.

Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)

Date: 10-2003

DOI: 10.1080/10635150390235647

Climate history, human impacts and global body size of Carnivora (Mammalia: Eutheria) at multiple evolutionary scales

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 12-2009

DOI: 10.1111/J.1365-2699.2009.02163.X

Mistaking geography for biology: inferring processes from species distributions

Publisher: Elsevier BV

Date: 10-2014

DOI: 10.1016/J.TREE.2014.08.003

Abstract: Over the past few decades, there has been a rapid proliferation of statistical methods that infer evolutionary and ecological processes from data on species distributions. These methods have led to considerable new insights, but they often fail to account for the effects of historical biogeography on present-day species distributions. Because the geography of speciation can lead to patterns of spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the distributions of species within a clade, this can result in misleading inferences about the importance of deterministic processes in generating spatial patterns of bio ersity. In this opinion article, we discuss ways in which patterns of species distributions driven by historical biogeography are often interpreted as evidence of particular evolutionary or ecological processes. We focus on three areas that are especially prone to such misinterpretations: community phylogenetics, environmental niche modelling, and analyses of beta ersity (compositional turnover of bio ersity).

A higher-level MRP supertree of placental mammals

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Date: 2006

DOI: 10.1186/1471-2148-6-93

Predicting mammal species richness and distributions: testing the effectiveness of satellite-derived land cover data

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Date: 1999

DOI: 10.1023/A:1008088224783

Multiple Causes of High Extinction Risk in Large Mammal Species

Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Date: 19-08-2005

DOI: 10.1126/SCIENCE.1116030

Abstract: Many large animal species have a high risk of extinction. This is usually thought to result simply from the way that species traits associated with vulnerability, such as low reproductive rates, scale with body size. In a broad-scale analysis of extinction risk in mammals, we find two additional patterns in the size selectivity of extinction risk. First, impacts of both intrinsic and environmental factors increase sharply above a threshold body mass around 3 kilograms. Second, whereas extinction risk in smaller species is driven by environmental factors, in larger species it is driven by a combination of environmental factors and intrinsic traits. Thus, the disadvantages of large size are greater than generally recognized, and future loss of large mammal bio ersity could be far more rapid than expected.

Unburnt patches maintain bird abundance and species richness following large wildfires in an Australian semiarid woodland ecosystem

Publisher: Elsevier BV

Date: 04-2022

DOI: 10.1016/J.JARIDENV.2022.104713

Modelling extinction risk in multispecies data sets: phylogenetically independent contrasts versus decision trees

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Date: 02-09-2009

DOI: 10.1007/S10531-009-9709-0

The phylogenetic signal of species co-occurrence in high-diversity shrublands: different patterns for fire-killed and fire-resistant species

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Date: 2012

DOI: 10.1186/1472-6785-12-21

Reconstructing past species assemblages reveals the changing patterns and drivers of extinction through time

Publisher: The Royal Society

Date: 08-2012

DOI: 10.1098/RSPB.2012.1437

Abstract: Predicting future species extinctions from patterns of past extinctions or current threat status relies on the assumption that the taxonomic and biological selectivity of extinction is consistent through time. If the driving forces of extinction change through time, this assumption may be unrealistic. Testing the consistency of extinction patterns between the past and the present has been difficult, because the phylogenetically explicit methods used to model present-day extinction risk typically cannot be applied to the data from the fossil record. However, the detailed historical and fossil records of the New Zealand avifauna provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct a complete, large faunal assemblage for different periods in the past. Using the first complete phylogeny of all known native New Zealand bird species, both extant and extinct, we show how the taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity of extinction, and biological correlates of extinction, change from the pre-human period through Polynesian and European occupation, to the present. These changes can be explained both by changes in primary threatening processes, and by the operation of extinction filter effects. The variable patterns of extinction through time may confound attempts to identify risk factors that apply across time periods, and to infer future species declines from past extinction patterns and current threat status.

Parasites and politics: why cross-cultural studies must control for relatedness, proximity and covariation

Publisher: The Royal Society

Date: 08-2018

DOI: 10.1098/RSOS.181100

Abstract: A growing number of studies seek to identify predictors of broad-scale patterns in human cultural ersity, but three sources of non-independence in human cultural variables can bias the results of cross-cultural studies. First, related cultures tend to have many traits in common, regardless of whether those traits are functionally linked. Second, societies in geographical proximity will share many aspects of culture, environment and demography. Third, many cultural traits covary, leading to spurious relationships between traits. Here, we demonstrate tractable methods for dealing with all three sources of bias. We use cross-cultural analyses of proposed associations between human cultural traits and parasite load to illustrate the potential problems of failing to correct for these three forms of statistical non-independence. Associations between parasite stress and sociosexuality, authoritarianism, democracy and language ersity are weak or absent once relatedness and proximity are taken into account, and parasite load has no more power to explain variation in traditionalism, religiosity and collectivism than other measures of bio ersity, climate or population size do. Without correction for statistical non-independence and covariation in cross-cultural analyses, we risk misinterpreting associations between culture and environment.

Alternative pathways to diversity across ecologically distinct lizard radiations

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 16-12-2019

DOI: 10.1111/GEB.13044

Are comparative studies of extinction risk useful for conservation?

Publisher: Elsevier BV

Date: 03-2012

DOI: 10.1016/J.TREE.2011.09.013

Abstract: Large-scale, comparative studies of species extinction risk have become common in conservation science, but their influence on conservation practice appears limited. The link between such studies and the practice of conservation breaks down in two key places. First, results of comparative studies are often ambiguous, inconsistent and difficult to translate into policy. Second, conservation as currently practiced emphasizes the rescue and protection of currently threatened bio ersity, whereas comparative studies are often better suited to a proactive approach that anticipates and prevents future species declines. Scientists should make their research more accessible by addressing the first issue. Policymakers and managers, in turn, could make better use of comparative studies by moving towards more preventative approaches to conservation planning.

Phylogenetic structure of mammal assemblages at large geographical scales: linking phylogenetic community ecology with macroecology

Publisher: The Royal Society

Date: 12-09-2011

DOI: 10.1098/RSTB.2011.0021

Abstract: Phylogenetic community ecology seeks to explain the processes involved in the formation of species assemblages by analysing their phylogenetic structure, and to date has focused primarily on local-scale communities. Macroecology, on the other hand, is concerned with the structure of assemblages at large geographical scales, but has remained largely non-phylogenetic. Analysing the phylogenetic structure of large-scale assemblages provides a link between these two research programmes. In this paper, I ask whether we should expect large-scale assemblages to show significant phylogenetic structure, by outlining some of the ecological and macroevolutionary processes that may play a role in assemblage formation. As a case study, I then explore the phylogenetic structure of carnivore assemblages within the terrestrial ecoregions of Africa. Many assemblages at these scales are indeed phylogenetically non-random (either clustered or overdispersed). One interpretation of the observed patterns of phylogenetic structure is that many clades underwent rapid biome-filling radiations, followed by ersification slowdown and competitive sorting as niche space became saturated.

Spatial, Phylogenetic, Environmental and Biological Components of Variation in Extinction Risk: A Case Study Using Banksia

Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)

Date: 05-05-2016

DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0154431

Equilibrium and non‐equilibrium phases in the radiation of Hakea and the drivers of diversity in Mediterranean‐type ecosystems

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 03-06-2019

DOI: 10.1111/EVO.13769

Abstract: Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) contain exceptional plant ersity. Explanations for this ersity are usually classed as either "equilibrium," with elevated MTE ersity resulting from greater ecological carrying capacities, or "non-equilibrium," with MTEs having a greater accumulation of ersity over time than other types of ecosystems. These models have typically been considered as mutually exclusive. Here, we present a trait-based explanatory framework that incorporates both equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamics. Using a large continental Australian plant radiation (Hakea) as a case study, we identify traits associated with niche partitioning in coexisting species (α-traits) and with environmental filtering (β-traits), and reconstruct the mode and relative timing of ersification of these traits. Our results point to a radiation with an early non-equilibrium phase marked by ergence of β-traits as Hakea ersified exponentially and expanded from the southwest Australian MTE into biomes across the Australian continent. This was followed from seven million years ago by an equilibrium phase, marked by ersification of α-traits and a slowdown in lineage ersification as MTE-niches became saturated. These results suggest that processes consistent with both equilibrium and non-equilibrium models have been important during different stages of the radiation of Hakea, and together they provide a richer explanation of present-day ersity patterns.

Evolution of a hotspot genus: geographic variation in speciation and extinction rates in Banksia (Proteaceae)

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Date: 2013

DOI: 10.1186/1471-2148-13-155

A species‐level phylogenetic supertree of marsupials

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 09-2004

DOI: 10.1017/S0952836904005539

TESTING FOR LATITUDINAL BIAS IN DIVERSIFICATION RATES: AN EXAMPLE USING NEW WORLD BIRDS

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 09-2005

DOI: 10.1890/05-0112

The life-history basis of latitudinal diversity gradients: how do species traits vary from the poles to the equator?

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 2002

DOI: 10.1046/J.0021-8790.2001.00577.X

Effects of stock grazing on the ground invertebrate fauna of woodland remnants

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 06-1999

DOI: 10.1046/J.1442-9993.1999.00963.X

Diet disparity and diversity predict extinction risk in primates

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 03-10-2022

DOI: 10.1111/ACV.12823

Abstract: Species vary in their vulnerability to extinction according to their biology, ecology, environmental factors and threats to which they are exposed. Diet is an important ecological trait that affects many aspects of a species' biology, including its vulnerability to extinction. Despite the importance of diet as a species' trait, its influence on extinction risk has only been studied in a coarse way, in part due to a lack of detailed diet data covering a large breadth of species or geographic areas. We examined the association between diet and extinction risk in primates, using a high‐resolution dataset covering all major primate lineages and habitats on a global scale. The resolution of the dataset allowed us to calculate multiple biologically informative metrics for diet composition and ersity, allowing us to tease apart what aspects of diet were most important for predicting the risk of extinction, whilst accounting for phylogeny, body mass and geographic range size. Our results showed that both diet disparity and diet ersity predict primate extinction risk, showing that primates that are able to consume more types of items, and items that are more disparate from one another, are less prone to extinction. Furthermore, we found that although closely related species tend to have similar dietary ersity and disparity, these metrics vary widely amongst primate families. Primates with a high diet ersity and disparity may be able to cope better with fluctuations in food availability than species with homogeneous diet items, through a portfolio effect. Understanding the degree of dietary specialization of the species may help guide new studies relating to extinction risk and threats and be useful in future species assessments.

Clarifying the relationship between torpor and anthropogenic extinction risk in mammals

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 04-2014

DOI: 10.1111/JZO.12136

Environmental niche conservatism explains the accumulation of species richness in Mediterranean-hotspot plant genera

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 02-02-2017

DOI: 10.1111/EVO.13179

Abstract: The causes of exceptionally high plant ersity in Mediterranean-climate bio ersity hotspots are not fully understood. We asked whether a mechanism similar to the tropical niche conservatism hypothesis could explain the ersity of four large genera (Protea, Moraea, Banksia, and Hakea) with distributions within and adjacent to the Greater Cape Floristic Region (South Africa) or the Southwest Floristic Region (Australia). Using phylogenetic and spatial data we estimated the environmental niche of each species, and reconstructed the mode and dynamics of niche evolution, and the geographic history, of each genus. For three genera, there were strong positive relationships between the ersity of clades within a region and their inferred length of occupation of that region. Within genera, there was evidence for strong evolutionary constraint on niche axes associated with climatic seasonality and aridity, with different niche optima for hotspot and nonhotspot clades. Evolutionary transitions away from hotspots were associated with increases in niche breadth and elevated rates of niche evolution. Our results point to a process of "hotspot niche conservatism" whereby the accumulation of plant ersity in Mediterranean-type ecosystems results from longer time for speciation, with dispersal away from hotspots limited by narrow and phylogenetically conserved environmental niches.

Predation selectively culls medium-sized species from island mammal faunas

Publisher: The Royal Society

Date: 04-2014

DOI: 10.1098/RSBL.2013.1066

Abstract: Globally, elevated extinction risk in mammals is strongly associated with large body size. However, in regions where introduced predators exert strong top-down pressure on mammal populations, the selectivity of extinctions may be skewed towards species of intermediate body size, leading to a hump-shaped relationship between size and extinction risk. The existence of this kind of extinction pattern, and its link to predation, has been contentious and difficult to demonstrate. Here, we test the hypothesis of a hump-shaped body size–extinction relationship, using a database of 927 island mammal populations. We show that the size-selectivity of extinctions on many islands has exceeded that expected under null models. On islands with introduced predators, extinctions are biased towards intermediate body sizes, but this bias does not occur on islands without predators. Hence, on islands with a large-bodied mammal fauna, predators are selectively culling species from the lower end of the size distribution, and on islands with a small-bodied fauna they are culling species from the upper end. These findings suggest that it will be difficult to use predictable generalizations about extinction patterns, such as a positive body size–extinction risk association, to anticipate future species declines and plan conservation strategies accordingly.

Biological determinants of extinction risk: why are smaller species less vulnerable?

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 02-2003

DOI: 10.1017/S1367943003003093

Body size and latitudinal gradients in regional diversity of New World birds

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 2002

DOI: 10.1046/J.1466-822X.2001.00265.X

Abstract: Are latitudinal gradients in regional ersity random or biased with respect to body size? Using data for the New World avifauna, I show that the slope of the increase in regional species richness from the Arctic to the equator is not independent of body size. The increase is steepest among small and medium‐sized species, and shallowest among the largest species. This is reflected in latitudinal variation in the shape of frequency distributions of body sizes in regional subsets of the New World avifauna. Because species are added disproportionately in small and medium size classes towards low latitudes, distributions become less widely spread along the body size axis than expected from the number of species. These patterns suggest an interaction between the effects of latitude and body size on species richness, implying that mechanisms which vary with both latitude and body size may be important determinants of high tropical ersity in New World birds.

Island mammal extinctions are determined by interactive effects of life history, island biogeography and mesopredator suppression

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 11-08-2013

DOI: 10.1111/GEB.12103

Abstract: Understanding extinction on islands is critical for bio ersity conservation. Introduced predators are a major cause of island extinctions, but there have been few large‐scale studies of the complexity of the effects of predators on island faunas, or how predation interacts with other factors. Using a large database of island mammal populations, we describe and explain patterns of island mammal extinctions as a function of introduced predators, life history and geography. Three hundred and twenty‐three A ustralian islands. We built a database of 934 island mammal populations, extinct and extant, including life history and ecology, island geography and the presence of introduced predators. To test predictors of extinction probability, we used generalized linear mixed models to control partially for phylogenetic non‐independence, and decision trees to more fully explore interactive effects. The decision trees identified large mammals ( 2.7 kg) as having higher extinction probabilities than small species ( 2.7 kg). In large species, extinction patterns are consistent with island biogeography theory, with distance from the mainland being the primary predictor of extinction. For small species, the presence of introduced black rats is the primary predictor of extinction. As predicted by mesopredator suppression theory, extinction probabilities are lower on islands with both black rats and a larger introduced predator (cats, foxes or dingoes), compared with islands with rats but no larger predator. Similarly, extinction probabilities are lower on islands with both a mid‐sized (cats or foxes) and a larger (dingoes) predator, compared with islands with cats or foxes only. Island mammal extinctions result from complex interactions of introduced predators, island geography and prey biology. One conservation implication of our results is that eradication of introduced apex predators (cats, foxes or dingoes) from islands could precipitate the expansion of black rat populations, potentially leading to extinction of native mammal species whose remaining populations are confined to islands.

The relationship between environmental niche breadth and geographic range size across plant species

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 26-11-2019

DOI: 10.1111/JBI.13477

PanTHERIA: a species‐level database of life history, ecology, and geography of extant and recently extinct mammals

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 09-2009

DOI: 10.1890/08-1494.1

Abstract: Analyses of life‐history, ecological, and geographic trait differences among species, their causes, correlates, and likely consequences are increasingly important for understanding and conserving bio ersity in the face of rapid global change. Assembling multispecies trait data from erse literature sources into a single comprehensive data set requires detailed consideration of methods to reliably compile data for particular species, and to derive single estimates from multiple sources based on different techniques and definitions. Here we describe PanTHERIA, a species‐level data set compiled for analysis of life history, ecology, and geography of all known extant and recently extinct mammals. PanTHERIA is derived from a database capable of holding multiple geo‐referenced values for variables within a species containing 100 740 lines of biological data for extant and recently extinct mammalian species, collected over a period of three years by 20 in iduals. PanTHERIA also includes spatial databases of mammalian geographic ranges and global climatic and anthropogenic variables. Here we detail how the data fields are extracted and defined for PanTHERIA using a customized data input format (MammalForm) how data were collected from the literature, species names and sources tracked, error‐checking and validation procedures applied, and how data were consolidated into species‐level values for each variable. Tables of the consolidated species‐level values are made available for each of two recent species‐level taxonomic classifications of mammals, as well as associated taxonomic synonymy conversion and data‐input files. This study provides a useful guide to prospective researchers on how to structure and codify life‐history, ecological, geographic, and taxonomic data and methods to extract meaningful species‐level traits. It also provides comprehensive information on traits like size, diet, environmental conditions, and ecology to permit macroecological and macroevolutionary analyses of this important clade. The complete data sets corresponding to abstracts published in the Data Papers section of the journal are published electronically in Ecological Archives at 〈 rchive 〉. (The accession number for each Data Paper is given directly beneath the title.)

Testing the link between the latitudinal gradient in species richness and rates of molecular evolution

Publisher: Wiley

Date: 10-02-2003

DOI: 10.1046/J.1420-9101.2003.00526.X

Abstract: Numerous hypotheses have been proposed to explain latitudinal gradients in species richness, but all are subject to ongoing debate. Here we examine Rohde's (1978, 1992) hypothesis, which proposes that climatic conditions at low latitudes lead to elevated rates of speciation. This hypothesis predicts that rates of molecular evolution should increase towards lower latitudes, but this prediction has never been tested. We discuss potential links between rates of molecular evolution and latitudinal ersity gradients, and present the first test of latitudinal variation in rates of molecular evolution. Using 45 phylogenetically independent, latitudinally separated pairs of bird species and higher taxa, we compare rates of evolution of two mitochondrial genes and DNA-DNA hybridization distances. We find no support for an effect of latitude on rate of molecular evolution. This result casts doubt on the generality of a key component of Rohde's hypothesis linking climate and speciation.

Detecting Macroevolutionary Self-Destruction from Phylogenies

Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)

Date: 10-10-2015

DOI: 10.1093/SYSBIO/SYV062

Abstract: Phylogenetic analyses have lent support to the concept of lineage selection: that biological lineages can have heritable traits that influence their capacity to persist and ersify, and thereby affect their representation in bio ersity. While many discussions have focused on "positive" lineage selection, where stably heritable properties of lineages enhance their ersification rate, there are also intriguing ex les that seem to represent "negative" lineage selection, where traits reduce the likelihood that a lineage will persist or speciate. In this article, we test whether a particular pattern of negative lineage selection is detectable from the distributions of the trait on a phylogeny. "Self-destructive" traits are those that arise often but then disappear again because they confer either a raised extinction rate or they are prone to a high rate of trait loss. For such a trait, the reconstructed origins will tend to be dispersed across the tips of the phylogeny, rather than defining large clades of related lineages that all share the trait. We examine the utility of four possible measures of "tippiness" as potential indicators of macroevolutionary self-destruction, applying them to phylogenies on which trait evolution has been simulated under different combinations of parameters for speciation, extinction, trait gain, and trait loss. We use an efficient simulation approach that starts with the required number of tips with and without the trait and uses a model to work "backwards" to construct different possible trees that result in that set of tips. We then apply these methods to a number of case studies: salt tolerance in grasses, color polymorphism in birds of prey, and selfing in nightshades. We find that the relative age of species, measured from tip length, can indicate a reduced speciation rate but does not identify traits that increase the extinction rate or the trait loss rate. We show that it is possible to detect cases of macroevolutionary self-destruction by considering the number of tips with the trait that arise from each inferred origin, and the degree to which the trait is scattered across the phylogeny. These metrics, and the methods we present, may be useful for testing macroevolutionary hypotheses from phylogenetic patterns.

Global patterns in the phylogenetic structure of island mammal assemblages

Publisher: The Royal Society

Date: 08-04-2008

DOI: 10.1098/RSPB.2008.0262

Abstract: Assemblage-level phylogenies carry the signature of ecological and evolutionary processes, which may provide useful information on modes of assemblage formation. We present a global-scale analysis of the emergent phylogenetic properties of mammal assemblages on islands, in which we compared the structure of 595 island assemblages with null models constructed under four alternative definitions of regional source pools. Although most assemblages had a structure indistinguishable from random s les, for some mammal taxa, up to 40% of island assemblages were phylogenetically overdispersed. This suggests that in at least some cases, the processes that shape island faunas are not independent of phylogeny. Furthermore, measures of phylogenetic structure were associated in some cases with island geographical features (size, maximum elevation and habitat ersity). Our results suggest that part of the signal of assemblage formation processes is detectable in the phylogenies of contemporary island mammal faunas, though much is obscured by the complexity of these processes.

Priorities for conserving the world’s terrestrial mammals based on over-the-horizon extinction risk

Publisher: Elsevier BV

Date: 04-2023

DOI: 10.1016/J.CUB.2023.02.063

Phylogenetic trees and the future of mammalian biodiversity

Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Date: 12-08-2008

DOI: 10.1073/PNAS.0801917105

Abstract: Phylogenies describe the origins and history of species. However, they can also help to predict species' fates and so can be useful tools for managing the future of bio ersity. This article starts by sketching how phylogenetic, geographic, and trait information can be combined to elucidate present mammalian ersity patterns and how they arose. Recent ersification rates and standing ersity show different geographic patterns, indicating that cradles of ersity have moved over time. Patterns in extinction risk reflect both biological differences among mammalian lineages and differences in threat intensity among regions. Phylogenetic comparative analyses indicate that for small-bodied mammals, extinction risk is governed mostly by where the species live and the intensity of the threats, whereas for large-bodied mammals, ecological differences also play an important role. This modeling approach identifies species whose intrinsic biology renders them particularly vulnerable to increased human pressure. We outline how the approach might be extended to consider future trends in anthropogenic drivers, to identify likely future battlegrounds of mammalian conservation, and the likely casualties. This framework could help to highlight consequences of choosing among different future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. We end by discussing priority-setting, showing how alternative currencies for ersity can suggest very different priorities. We argue that aiming to maximize long-term evolutionary responses is inappropriate, that conservation planning needs to consider costs as well as benefits, and that proactive conservation of largely intact systems should be part of a balanced strategy.

Geographic Range Shifts Do Not Erase the Historic Signal of Speciation in Mammals

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Date: 03-2015

DOI: 10.1086/679663

Abstract: Many evolutionary analyses assume that the positions of species geographic ranges are sufficiently phylogenetically conserved that current ranges reflect ancestral ranges and retain the historic signal of speciation. The validity of this assumption has been challenged, because there is evidence that ranges can shift rapidly and extensively. Here I test the assumption of range conservatism using simulations and empirical tests of phylogenetic signal in geographic positions of ranges within mammal orders, families, and genera. In most taxa, range positions show strong phylogenetic signal, quantified using Pagel's λ, Mantel tests, and a novel method to measure phylogenetic signal near the tips of a phylogeny. Taxa with highly labile range positions are exceptions to the general pattern and include very young groups such as Sciurus that may still be in the early, rapid-expansion phase of adaptive radiation. In two orders containing many species with large distributions (Artiodactyla and Carnivora), temporal patterns of range evolution are consistent with large instantaneous shifts in range position associated with allopatric speciation. In most other taxa, range evolution is better described by models that allow ranges to evolve along branches of the phylogeny. The results point to a common pattern of phylogenetically conserved ranges where the current position of species ranges reflects their position at the time of speciation, modified by gradual drift of range boundaries through time.

Latitude and rates of diversification in birds and butterflies

Publisher: The Royal Society

Date: 22-06-1999

DOI: 10.1098/RSPB.1999.0766

Australian National University

Location: Australia

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Discovery Projects - Grant ID: DP230102431

Start Date: 08-2024

End Date: 07-2027

Amount: $388,000.00

Funder: Australian Research Council

Discovery Projects - Grant ID: DP160103942

Start Date: 06-2016

End Date: 06-2021

Amount: $359,400.00

Funder: Australian Research Council

Discovery Projects - Grant ID: DP0879971

Start Date: 06-2008

End Date: 05-2013

Amount: $710,571.00

Funder: Australian Research Council

Discovery Projects - Grant ID: DP160103915

Start Date: 01-2016

End Date: 12-2019

Amount: $378,700.00

Funder: Australian Research Council

Discovery Projects - Grant ID: DP110103168

Start Date: 02-2011

End Date: 07-2016

Amount: $390,000.00

Funder: Australian Research Council

Discovery Projects - Grant ID: DP200102927

Start Date: 08-2020

End Date: 08-2024

Amount: $390,000.00

Funder: Australian Research Council