ORCID Profile
0000-0002-0832-710X
Current Organisations
Johns Hopkins University
,
University of Colorado at Boulder
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Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 09-08-2023
Abstract: The Northwest Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico are among the fastest warming ocean regions, a trend that is expected to continue through this century with far-reaching implications for marine ecosystems. We examine the distribution of 12 highly migratory top predator species using predictive models and project expected habitat changes using downscaled climate models. Our models predict widespread losses of suitable habitat for most species, concurrent with substantial northward displacement of core habitats km. These changes include up to % loss of suitable habitat area for some commercially and ecologically important species. We also identify predicted hot spots of multi-species habitat loss focused offshore of the U.S. Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. For several species, the predicted changes are already underway, which are likely to have substantial impacts on the efficacy of static regulatory frameworks used to manage highly migratory species. The ongoing and projected effects of climate change highlight the urgent need to adaptively and proactively manage dynamic marine ecosystems.
Publisher: American Astronomical Society
Date: 10-2023
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-01-2023
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-022-05677-Y
Abstract: Transmission spectroscopy 1–3 of exoplanets has revealed signatures of water vapour, aerosols and alkali metals in a few dozen exoplanet atmospheres 4,5 . However, these previous inferences with the Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescopes were hindered by the observations’ relatively narrow wavelength range and spectral resolving power, which precluded the unambiguous identification of other chemical species—in particular the primary carbon-bearing molecules 6,7 . Here we report a broad-wavelength 0.5–5.5 µm atmospheric transmission spectrum of WASP-39b 8 , a 1,200 K, roughly Saturn-mass, Jupiter-radius exoplanet, measured with the JWST NIRSpec’s PRISM mode 9 as part of the JWST Transiting Exoplanet Community Early Release Science Team Program 10–12 . We robustly detect several chemical species at high significance, including Na (19 σ ), H 2 O (33 σ ), CO 2 (28 σ ) and CO (7 σ ). The non-detection of CH 4 , combined with a strong CO 2 feature, favours atmospheric models with a super-solar atmospheric metallicity. An unanticipated absorption feature at 4 µm is best explained by SO 2 (2.7 σ ), which could be a tracer of atmospheric photochemistry. These observations demonstrate JWST’s sensitivity to a rich ersity of exoplanet compositions and chemical processes.
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 05-08-2019
Abstract: The community of species, human institutions, and human activities at a given location have been shaped by historical conditions (both mean and variability) at that location. Anthropogenic climate change is now adding strong trends on top of existing natural variability. These trends elevate the frequency of “surprises”—conditions that are unexpected based on recent history. Here, we show that the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures has increased even faster than expected based on recent temperature trends. Using a simple model of human adaptation, we show that these surprises will increasingly challenge natural modes of adaptation that rely on historical experience. We also show that warming rates are likely to shift natural communities toward generalist species, reducing their productivity and ersity. Our work demonstrates increasing benefits for in iduals and institutions from betting that trends will continue, but this strategy represents a radical shift that will be difficult for many to make.
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 26-09-2022
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-2092302/V1
Abstract: Transmission spectroscopy of exoplanets has revealed signatures of water vapor, aerosols, and alkali metals in a few dozen exoplanet atmospheres. However, these previous inferences with the Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescopes were hindered by the observations’ relatively narrow wavelength range and spectral resolving power, which precluded the unambiguous identification of other chemical species—in particular the primary carbon-bearing molecules. Here we report a broad-wavelength 0.5–5.5 μm atmospheric transmission spectrum of WASP-39 b, a 1200 K, roughly Saturn-mass, Jupiter-radius exoplanet, measured with JWST NIRSpec’s PRISM mode as part of the JWST Transiting Exoplanet Community Early Release Science Team program. We robustly detect multiple chemical species at high significance, including Na (19σ), H2O (33σ), CO2 (28σ), and CO (7σ). The non-detection of CH4, combined with a strong CO2 feature, favours atmospheric models with a super-Solar atmospheric metallicity. An unanticipated absorption feature at 4μm is best explained by SO2 (2.7σ), which could be a tracer of atmospheric photochemistry. These observations demonstrate JWST’s sensitivity to a rich ersity of exoplanet compositions and chemical processes.
Publisher: American Astronomical Society
Date: 06-2023
Abstract: We develop and disseminate effective point-spread functions and geometric-distortion solutions for high-precision astrometry and photometry with the JWST NIRISS instrument. We correct field dependencies and detector effects, and assess the quality and the temporal stability of the calibrations. As a scientific application and validation, we study the proper motion (PM) kinematics of stars in the JWST calibration field near the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) center, comparing to a first-epoch Hubble Space Telescope (HST) archival catalog with a 16 yr baseline. For stars with G ∼ 20, the median PM uncertainty is ∼13 μ as yr −1 (3.1 km s −1 ), better than Gaia DR3 typically achieves for its very best-measured stars. We kinematically detect the known star cluster OGLE-CL LMC 407, measure its absolute PM for the first time, and show how this differs from other LMC populations. The inferred cluster dispersion sets an upper limit of 24 μ as yr −1 (5.6 km s −1 ) on systematic uncertainties. Red-giant-branch stars have a velocity dispersion of 33.8 ± 0.6 km s −1 , while younger blue populations have a narrower velocity distribution, but with a significant kinematical substructure. We discuss how this relates to the larger velocity dispersions inferred from Gaia DR3. These results establish JWST as capable of state-of-the-art astrometry, building on the extensive legacy of HST. This is the first paper in a series by our JWST Telescope Scientist Team, in which we will use Guaranteed Time Observations to study the PM kinematics of various stellar systems in the Local Group.
No related grants have been discovered for Natalie Allen.