ORCID Profile
0000-0003-4227-2031
Current Organisation
Duke University
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Publisher: Wiley
Date: 17-01-2020
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.14959
Abstract: A rapidly changing climate has the potential to interfere with the timing of environmental cues that ectothermic organisms rely on to initiate and regulate life history events. Short-lived ectotherms that exhibit plasticity in their life history could increase the number of generations per year under warming climate. If many in iduals successfully complete an additional generation, the population experiences an additional opportunity to grow, and a warming climate could lead to a demographic bonanza. However, these plastic responses could become maladaptive in temperate regions, where a warmer climate could trigger a developmental pathway that cannot be completed within the growing season, referred to as a developmental trap. Here we incorporated detailed demography into commonly used photothermal models to evaluate these demographic consequences of phenological shifts due to a warming climate on the formerly widespread, multivoltine butterfly (Pieris oleracea). Using species-specific temperature- and photoperiod-sensitive vital rates, we estimated the number of generations per year and population growth rate over the set of climate conditions experienced during the past 38 years. We predicted that populations in the southern portion of its range have added a fourth generation in recent years, resulting in higher annual population growth rates (demographic bonanzas). We predicted that populations in the Northeast United States have experienced developmental traps, where increases in the thermal window initially caused mortality of the final generation and reduced growth rates. These populations may recover if more growing degree days are added to the year. Our framework for incorporating detailed demography into commonly used photothermal models demonstrates the importance of using both demography and phenology to predict consequences of phenological shifts.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 22-02-2016
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-2019
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-12-2019
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 23-10-2019
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 17-01-2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.01.16.909135
Abstract: Behavior and organization of social groups is thought to be vital to the functioning of societies, yet the contributions of various roles within social groups have been difficult to quantify. A common approach to quantifying these role-based contributions is evaluating the performance of in iduals at conducting certain roles, these studies ignore how these performances might scale up to effects at the population-level. Manipulative experiments are another common approach to determine population-level effects, but they often ignore potential feedbacks associated with these various roles. Here, we evaluate the effects of worker size distribution in bumblebee colonies on worker production, using functional linear models. Functional linear models are a recent correlative technique that has been used to assess lag effects of environmental drivers on plant performance. We demonstrate potential applications of this technique to explore contributions of social animals to ecological phenomenon. We found that the worker size distribution differentially affected new worker production across three resource environments. Specifically, more larger workers had mostly positive effects and more smaller workers had negative effects on worker production. Most of these effects were only detected under low or fluctuating resource environments suggesting that the advantage of colonies with larger-bodied workers becomes more apparent under stressful conditions. We demonstrate the wider ecological application of functional linear models. We highlight the advantages and limitations when considering these models, and how they are a valuable complement to many of these performance-based and manipulative experiments.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-12-2018
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 11-02-2021
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.7239
No related grants have been discovered for Natalie Kerr.