ORCID Profile
0000-0002-3006-3737
Current Organisation
University of Oxford
Does something not look right? The information on this page has been harvested from data sources that may not be up to date. We continue to work with information providers to improve coverage and quality. To report an issue, use the Feedback Form.
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 30-12-2021
DOI: 10.1101/2021.12.21.21268200
Abstract: In December 2020, an unprecedented vaccination programme to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic was initiated worldwide. However, the vaccine provision is currently insufficient for most countries to vaccinate their entire eligible population, so it is essential to develop the most efficient vaccination strategies. COVID-19 disease severity and mortality vary by age, therefore age-dependent vaccination strategies must be developed. Here, we use an age-dependent SIERS (susceptible–infected–exposed–recovered–susceptible) deterministic model to compare four hypothetical age-dependent vaccination strategies and their potential impact on the COVID-19 epidemic in Kyrgyzstan. Over the short-term (until March 2022), a vaccination rollout strategy focussed on high-risk groups (aged years) with some vaccination among high-incidence groups (aged 20–49 years) may decrease symptomatic cases and COVID-19-attributable deaths. However, there will be limited impact on the estimated overall number of COVID-19 cases with the relatively low coverage of high-incidence groups (15–25% based on current vaccine availability). Vaccination plus non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask wearing and social distancing, will further decrease COVID-19 incidence and mortality and may have an indirect impact on all-cause mortality. Our results and other evidence suggest that vaccination is most effective in flattening the epidemic curve and reducing mortality if supported by NPIs. In the short-term, focussing on high-risk groups may reduce the burden on the health system and result in fewer deaths. However, the herd effect from delaying another peak may only be achieved by greater vaccination coverage in high-incidence groups.
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 12-2020
DOI: 10.1136/BMJGH-2020-003126
Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on multiple levels of society. Not only has the pandemic completely overwhelmed some health systems but it has also changed how scientific evidence is shared and increased the pace at which such evidence is published and consumed, by scientists, policymakers and the wider public. More significantly, the pandemic has created tremendous challenges for decision-makers, who have had to implement highly disruptive containment measures with very little empirical scientific evidence to support their decision-making process. Given this lack of data, predictive mathematical models have played an increasingly prominent role. In high-income countries, there is a long-standing history of established research groups advising policymakers, whereas a general lack of translational capacity has meant that mathematical models frequently remain inaccessible to policymakers in low-income and middle-income countries. Here, we describe a participatory approach to modelling that aims to circumvent this gap. Our approach involved the creation of an international group of infectious disease modellers and other public health experts, which culminated in the establishment of the COVID-19 Modelling (CoMo) Consortium. Here, we describe how the consortium was formed, the way it functions, the mathematical model used and, crucially, the high degree of engagement fostered between CoMo Consortium members and their respective local policymakers and ministries of health.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-02-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-021-21134-2
Abstract: Dexamethasone can reduce mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients needing oxygen and ventilation by 18% and 36%, respectively. Here, we estimate the potential number of lives saved and life years gained if this treatment were to be rolled out in the UK and globally, as well as the cost-effectiveness of implementing this intervention. Assuming SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels of 5% to 15%, we estimate that, for the UK, approximately 12,000 (4,250 - 27,000) lives could be saved between July and December 2020. Assuming that dexamethasone has a similar effect size in settings where access to oxygen therapies is limited, this would translate into approximately 650,000 (240,000 - 1,400,000) lives saved globally over the same time period. If dexamethasone acts differently in these settings, the impact could be less than half of this value. To estimate the full potential of dexamethasone in the global fight against COVID-19, it is essential to perform clinical research in settings with limited access to oxygen and/or ventilators, for ex le in low- and middle-income countries.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Ainura Moldokmatova.